Overall Graft Grades, PF "experts"

[Pokerbrat2000]

Offensively QBs and OTs are scooped up quickly, but lately OTs have slid. Not sure if it is a lack of talent available or a general trend.

I was thinking the same thing when looking at this years draft. My two thoughts, history. Maybe enough high round OT's have been busts, that teams are starting to think find guys with the physical traits and the ability to learn how the position is played in the NFL and draft them a bit later. Second, some of these defensive guys going top 12 (yeah, I included Gary), have the size, speed and natural abilities that translate at both the college and Pro Level. Basically, there is more learning required for an OT to make the jump from college to Pro.

QB's are a whole other animal, I think many teams with the need, are willing to take much more risk in an attempt to find the next Aaron Rodgers. Cardinals being one of those with their last 2 drafts.

 

[Dantés]

I am not sure I agree that OT's have slid, positionally. If teams are confident that a guy is a tackle at the next level, and his eval is clean, he still almost always goes really high.

Dillard went back half of round one, but he's coming out of a non-traditional offense. Taylor slid because of a knee concern. Ford dropped because he probably isn't really a tackle. Same story for Risner.

True tackles with clean evals still almost always go top 10.

 

[XPack]

Also, I get the impression that people want to make Gary out as a complete project and not a plug and play guy,

There was the obvious gap between attributes vs production during his college term. How he can be plug and played with a better impact in NFL?

I'd be happy if he can get 10+ sacks in his either of his first 2 seasons, but the chances of that seem very slim currently.

 

[Dantés]

There was the obvious gap between attributes vs production during his college term. How he can be plug and played with a better impact in NFL?

I'd be happy if he can get 10+ sacks in his either of his first 2 seasons, but the chances of that seem very slim currently.

There's also a pretty obvious gap between scouting his production and scouting his play. On tape, he's ready to play immediately. Whether he will make some adjustments and finish more plays and increase his production is anyone's guess, but he is clearly ready to hold his own and create some problems for offenses. We aren't talking about a guy who is merely talented but a total mess on film. Fundamentally, he is really sound.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

There was the obvious gap between attributes vs production during his college term. How he can be plug and played with a better impact in NFL?

I'd be happy if he can get 10+ sacks in his either of his first 2 seasons, but the chances of that seem very slim currently.

While I love sacks, I think people overlook so many other things in evaluating defensive players. Pressures, TFL, the offensive manpower they eat up, etc.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

I am not sure I agree that OT's have slid, positionally. If teams are confident that a guy is a tackle at the next level, and his eval is clean, he still almost always goes really high.

Dillard went back half of round one, but he's coming out of a non-traditional offense. Taylor slid because of a knee concern. Ford dropped because he probably isn't really a tackle. Same story for Risner.

True tackles with clean evals still almost always go top 10.

But was that before or still after top EDGE players are making $17+ M per? Top LT's used to be right behind QB's in salaries, from my memory. That has shifted in the last several years with top EDGE (making more) and top CB' getting similar pay as top LT's.

But to agree with your point to some extent, we didn't see CB's being drafted first round until what, pick #30? So maybe this just wasn't a good year for OT's or CB's in the draft.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

I thought this was a pretty good follow up on the selection of Gary at #12

https://packerswire.usatoday.com/20...k-and-reward-of-packers-top-pick-rashan-gary/

A good comparison to Cameron Jordan.

https://packerswire.usatoday.com/20...ison-for-new-packers-edge-rusher-rashan-gary/

This was mainly "fluff", but sums up what the Packers already knew.

https://dairylandexpress.com/2019/04/28/green-bay-packers-dispelling-rashan-gary-myths/

 

[Dantés]

But was that before or still after top EDGE players are making $17+ M per? Top LT's used to be right behind QB's in salaries, from my memory. That has shifted in the last several years with top EDGE (making more) and top CB' getting similar pay as top LT's.

But to agree with your point to some extent, we didn't see CB's being drafted first round until what, pick #30? So maybe this just wasn't a good year for OT's or CB's in the draft.

I think the perception that OT's are sliding has more to do with a lack of clean OT prospects coming out. This class was deep, but it didn't have any slam dunks in it. Jonah Williams was the closest, but even he had people questioning whether he should stick at tackle, and he still went 11th.

I do think edge and corner have caught up to OT in valuation, but I don't think that means OT is sliding.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

I think the perception that OT's are sliding has more to do with a lack of clean OT prospects coming out. This class was deep, but it didn't have any slam dunks in it. Jonah Williams was the closest, but even he had people questioning whether he should stick at tackle, and he still went 11th.

I do think edge and corner have caught up to OT in valuation, but I don't think that means OT is sliding.

Pretty much agree as I have thought about it more, but EDGE value has completely blown by LT as far as new contracts go. Now that may change in the coming years, but if it doesn't, I think you will see more teams willing to do exactly like what they have done with QB's in the draft, draft them higher due to the cost of getting good ones.

 

[longtimefan]

https://www.facebook.com/68680511262/posts/10157287025046263/

She says the jag and Packers will win their division based on their draft pics

And not bad to look at

 

[Dantés]

Pretty much agree as I have thought about it more, but EDGE value has completely blown by LT as far as new contracts go. Now that may change in the coming years, but if it doesn't, I think you will see more teams willing to do exactly like what they have done with QB's in the draft, draft them higher due to the cost of getting good ones.

I wonder how much the discrepancy has to do with a shortage of elite tackles, and even the good ones not actually hitting the open market.

Who are the elite tackles in the NFL?

Tyron Smith: His current deal started in 2014.
Trent Williams: 2015
Terron Armstead: 2016
David Bakhtiari: 2016
Joe Staley: 2012

Meanwhile, a number of the true best of the best OT's have aged out (Joe Thomas, Jason Peters, Andrew Whitworth).

The true, top end tackles have all gotten old or were locked up at a time when the cap was 30-60M less than what it is now. Trent Williams, for example, got 13.5M when the cap was 143M overall. That would be 18M today. And you can only imagine what he would actually get if he hit the open market, rather than taking an extension early (a move that means a discount to the team in exchange for security for the player).

The OT market is weird, because it's the mediocre guys who are making the best money. That's because they're the ones who are being allowed to get away from their current teams. Guys like Trent Brown and Nate Solder are raking because they're competent and actually got to market.

So I do think that edge has caught up and surpassed OT, but I think there are mitigating circumstances that make the effect seem more dramatic.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

https://www.facebook.com/68680511262/posts/10157287025046263/

She says the jag and Packers will win their division based on their draft pics

And not bad to look at

Wait, was she talking during that? I didn't notice.

 

[swhitset]

1) I was using that as an example of how situations can determine whether a player succeeds or not, and is therefore a "good" or "bad" draft choice.

2) I was a proponent of adding Campbell to the roster, so I'm not sure what you're talking about?

3) Honest question. Are you Brandon's burner account?

I was actually wondering if Brandon used to be his Burner account... but now they are pretty much both burned.

 

[rmontro]

According to the ESPN draft special I watched yesterday, they not only rated the Packers draft a C- (I think that was the Mel Kiper rating), they also said their draft was the worst in the NFC North. They also picked either the Bears or the Vikings to win the division.

Meanwhile, the hate monger Colin Cowherd listed Green Bay as among the winners of the draft, and has been picking them to win the division.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

According to the ESPN draft special I watched yesterday, they not only rated the Packers draft a C- (I think that was the Mel Kiper rating), they also said their draft was the worst in the NFC North. They also picked either the Bears or the Vikings to win the division.

Meanwhile, the hate monger Colin Cowherd listed Green Bay as among the winners of the draft, and has been picking them to win the division.

Cowturd is just saying that in an attempt to try and woo Packer fans back into watching the di*khead. I'm not taking the bait, it's a trap!

 

[XPack]

Meanwhile, the hate monger Colin Cowherd listed Green Bay as among the winners of the draft, and has been picking them to win the division.

"Aaron Rodgers is out of excuses for not winning SB after this draft"

Wtf? He's just a troll. He'll put us in list only to gloat over if we fail and if we find success he'll just claim to have predicted it. Win/Win for him.

 

[rmontro]

Wtf? He's just a troll. He'll put us in list only to gloat over if we fail and if we find success he'll just claim to have predicted it. Win/Win for him.

Yeah, I think he's hedging his bets. If the Packers are successful, he can say he predicted it. If the Packers are not, he can say I told you Rodgers was a bad leader/gets hurt too much/isn't as good as Brees/whatever.

 

[OldSchool101]

Exactly, Gute did 2 things people have been *****ing about for years and they're still complaining. #1, They took a guy with some risk (at least to us) and a very high ceiling to be a difference maker and 2nd, they identified a guy and went and got him. They didn't wait to see what was available when they picked etc, they made the decision that he was going to be a packer and made it happen.

Much of my lackluster opinion of Gary was that I never really considered him a candidate prior and then saw a bunch of the names I wanted go off the board one by one at around pick 6-7 right up until we picked. I had an overall feeling of "well ****" but i'm better now

Yes. And technically Rashan was easily the highest rated player left. We’re fortunate to get a player grade of 6.3 at the premier position of an Edge Defender.

I am really impressed with this stat provided by Poker from the PackersWire (link above).

“Rashan Gary is the heaviest player, at 277 pounds, to have run a 40 yard dash below 4.60 (4.58) at either the Combine or their pro day since 1987”.
How many participants is that exactly?
I do know in just the combine alone, more than 100+ players are over that weight AND run the 40 annually.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

Yeah, I think he's hedging his bets. If the Packers are successful, he can say he predicted it. If the Packers are not, he can say I told you Rodgers was a bad leader/gets hurt too much/isn't as good as Brees/whatever.

yup and yup and if the Packers don't have a good season he will say "I was even behind them but I should have listened to guys like Greg Jennings, Aaron Rodgers even had me fooled"

 

[gbgary]

Yeah, I think he's hedging his bets. If the Packers are successful, he can say he predicted it. If the Packers are not, he can say I told you Rodgers was a bad leader/gets hurt too much/isn't as good as Brees/whatever.

his Packers criticism in the past has been they didn't give him a good D and not enough weapons on O. the D is going to unrecognizable this season personnel wise and hopefully results wise. the O is the wildcard.

 

[OldSchool101]

his Packers criticism in the past has been they didn't give him a good D and not enough weapons on O. the D is going to unrecognizable this season personnel wise and hopefully results wise. the O is the wildcard.

On one hand we can say Rodgers n Co has been grossly ignored in comparison to Defensive personnel as a whole going back years in the draft.

On the other hand, the amount of trust given to Aaron to “carry the load” is the supreme personal compliment. People can say whatever they want about his leadership skills, but it rarely shows up adversely in Offensive stats. A terrible Offensive year for us, led by Aaron Rodgers, is not making the top 10 Offensive rankings.

I’ve got a hunch. It just may be that there is a strategy here that consists of drafting heavy on D in order to get the ball back to Aaron who is the master of making teams pay. It is also very possible we hit the Offense out of the gate starting in the early 2020 offseason and going right through the draft, similar but on a smaller inverse scale of 2019. If that’s the case, our FO has already focused on a grouping of guys coming into the draft next year and like what they see.

I’m seeing more and more signs of a 2-3 year push back to the top.

 

[gbgary]

On one hand we can say Rodgers n Co has been grossly ignored in comparison to Defensive personnel ...

i think that's only accurate as far as the o-line goes. they've drafted backs, wr's, got te's in free agency, got rid of guys at the end of their careers that weren't productive. they've concentrated on D to fix the field position, and scoring issues, their poor play, and lack of talent, created. less stress on the O is a good thing.

 

[OldSchool101]

i think that's only accurate as far as the o-line goes. they've drafted backs, wr's, got te's in free agency, got rid of guys at the end of their careers that weren't productive. they've concentrated on D to fix the field position, and scoring issues, their poor play, and lack of talent, created. less stress on the O is a good thing.

the rest of the sentence sais that was cut off sais “in the draft”
Anyway, there’s no valid argument between the resources used at O and D even as a whole and saying they are comparable. At least not since our last SB.

Sure we’ve had a few nice FA veteran additions at Offense, no argument there. Just not enough to come close to offset the imbalance in the drafts and veteran Defensive FAs. That’s the point I was making.

 

[brandon2348]

Actually the Sternberger pick at #75 was solid. We also did good job getting a premier C/OG at #44. Where we missed was trading away both 4ths because that dramatically limited our leverage.
There was one silver lining. Although you didn’t get your guy and I missed mine (Singleterry). We got Dexter Williams who really should’ve been picked in the late 3rd early 4th but lasted until pick #196. In my mind we got our 4th rounder back at minimum. Jamaal Williams just got himself some stiff competition back there and I think he’ll eventually get bumped to our #3 and used more in passing situations

I give the D. Williams pick an A(my favorite pick of the draft) Sternberger a B(Due to overlooking other needs) and Jenkins an A which brings the the grade after the first round debacle up to a C. I lowered it to a D because overall they didn’t address the biggest need IMO.

The X factor in this whole draft is Savage and him proving to be worth not getting a premium playmaker along with getting Gary to play to his talent level which in most of these cases easier said then done.

 

[gbgary]

the rest of the sentence sais that was cut off sais “in the draft”
Anyway, there’s no valid argument between the resources used at O and D even as a whole and saying they are comparable. At least not since our last SB.

Sure we’ve had a few nice FA veteran additions at Offense, no argument there. Just not enough to come close to offset the imbalance in the drafts and veteran Defensive FAs. That’s the point I was making.

i didn't say anything about it being "comparable." the O didn't have the issues the D has had. the O carried the team until they all got old at the same time. getting old, cap restricted, AND the D falling apart took it's toll on the O. now both sides of the ball are younger, deeper, and although it's still a cap restricted team, it's had a talent infusion that, with some luck, will hopefully make a difference.