OT: Packers Defense Ranked #8

[PackinMSP]

In terms of yardage so far this year

Hoping for a strong finish obviously

 

[GreenNGold_81]

In the last three games, if I'm reading this correctly, we've given up the 5th least rushing yards as well. Doesn't bode well for my prediction that Henry will get 400+ yards this weekend.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

In terms of yardage so far this year

Hoping for a strong finish obviously

Total yards isn't a great way to measure the success of a defense though.

In the last three games, if I'm reading this correctly, we've given up the 5th least rushing yards as well. Doesn't bode well for my prediction that Henry will get 400+ yards this weekend.

While that's true it's mostly based on holding the Lions (30th ranked rushing offense) to 51 yards.

 

[gatorpack]

I'm curious to know where we stand on

Points per drive given up and
Time per drive of the defense

Maybe I'm wrong but I feel like the offense owning time of possession has skewed the stats into the defenses favor. It feels like we either get a 3 and out or it is a 12+ play scoring drive.

 

[Dantés]

The Packers' scoring defense is ranked 14th (24.2). It might surprise some people that it's not worse, but context matters here-- scoring is up across the league.

Their 3rd down defense is 10th, allowing 39% conversion.

Their red zone defense is 15th, allowing 62% of trips into the RZ to result in touchdowns.

They're 18th in points per drive (2.25 points) and 13th in time allowed per drive (2:44).

They're 23rd in pressure percentage (21.2%).

They're 29th in takeaways (14).

So basically, the basic foundation of Pettine's defense is mediocre, just as it was last year. But in 2019, pressure and thus takeaways were way up. This year, both has regressed significantly.

 

[Poppa San]

I'm curious to know where we stand on

Points per drive given up and
Time per drive of the defense

Analyze to your hearts content!

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2020/opp.htm

 

[Deleted member 6794]

Maybe I'm wrong but I feel like the offense owning time of possession has skewed the stats into the defenses favor. It feels like we either get a 3 and out or it is a 12+ play scoring drive.

The Packers' defense was among the league leaders in three and outs percentage forced early this season but have dropped to 15th in that category.

They have allowed a total of 14 drives of at least 12 plays this season, pretty much league average as well.

 

[PikeBadger]

From the eye test, I’d say that the defense has played better overall in the second half of the season. Gary, Savage, Amos and P. Smith have noticeably improved IMO. That’s a positive and gives me great hope. On the downside, special teams is still bad overall with the exception of Crosby.

 

[Pugger]

We are going to need this defense to play like the #8 defense tonight.

 

[gopkrs]

Total yards isn't a great way to measure the success of a defense though.

Just curious because it seems like a decent measurement to me. Are you advocating the bend don't break defense? My guess would be that a team that gives up a ton of yardage, also gives up a bunch of points. Just maybe not the worst. And wouldn't giving up a lot of yards equate to having a worse time of possession? I guess a lot of it comes down to actual game situation.

 

[Dantés]

Just curious because it seems like a decent measurement to me. Are you advocating the bend don't break defense? My guess would be that a team that gives up a ton of yardage, also gives up a bunch of points. Just maybe not the worst. And wouldn't giving up a lot of yards equate to having a worse time of possession? I guess a lot of it comes down to actual game situation.

Games are decided on points, not yardage. So when points allowed data is available, why not at least prefer that?

 

[Dantés]

Here's how the Packers' defense has performed this year against the average scoring output of their opponents.

1. Vikings: 34 points allowed; 26.2 avg; +7.8
2. Lions: 21 points allowed; 22.8 avg; -1.8
3. Saints: 30 points allowed; 29.9 avg; +.1
4. Falcons: 16 points allowed; 25.4 avg; -9.4
5. Bucs: 38 points allowed; 29.9 avg; +8.1
6. Texans: 20 points allowed; 22.5 avg; -2.5
7. Vikings: 28 points allowed; 26.2 avg; +1.8
8. 49ers: 17 points allowed; 23.5 avg; -6.5
9. Jaguars: 20 points allowed; 19.6 avg; +.4
10. Colts: 34 points allowed; 28.5 avg; +5.5
11. Bears: 25 points allowed; 22.5 avg; +2.5
12. Eagles: 16 points allowed; 21.6 avg; -5.6
13. Lions: 24 points allowed; 22.8 avg; +1.2
14. Panthers: 16 points allowed; 23.1 avg; -7.1
15. Titans:
16. Bears:

So in 14 games, there have been 8 times when the defense has allowed more than the opponent's average output, and 6 times when defense has allowed less than the opponent's average output.

In the 8 games where the defense has underperformed the average, they've given up a total of 27.4 points beyond the opponents' scoring averages, or 3.4 points per contest.

In the 6 game where the defense has overperformed the average, they've given up a total of 32.9 points less than the opponents' scoring averages, or 5.5 points per contest.

On the whole, the defense is actually 5.5 points better than average on the season in this measure.

But one thing you'll notice is that in the five games against strong offenses in this sample (NO, TB, IND, MIN x 2), the defense underperformed, sometimes by a hair and sometimes by a touchdown or more.

So the pattern so far has been that Pettine's unit can't hold good scoring teams down below their normal output. With the Titans averaging 31.1 points per game, then if this trend holds up that means Green Bay would need to score 34+ to win.

In the broader outlook, I think these results indicate that Pettine's defense is just mediocre. It isn't a disaster and is isn't giving the team any kind of advantage. The organization will need to assess whether that's an acceptable result, given the talent provided.

 

[PackAttack12]

In the broader outlook, I think these results indicate that Pettine's defense is just mediocre. It isn't a disaster and is isn't giving the team any kind of advantage. The organization will need to assess whether that's an acceptable result, given the talent provided.

Nice post. Pettine cannot afford another stinker in the playoffs. It'll be the perfect opportunity to show him the door and let LaFleur go pick his DC.

 

[Poppa San]

Here's how the Packers' defense has performed this year

Did you deduct turnover scores, kick returns, and drives that started inside the red zone?

 

[Dantés]

Did you deduct turnover scores, kick returns, and drives that started inside the red zone?

No.

If I did that, I'd have to do it for the entire league to ascertain how the team actually stacks up. That would take way too much work.

 

[Poppa San]

No.

If I did that, I'd have to do it for the entire league to ascertain how the team actually stacks up. That would take way too much work.

I just recall Tampa getting a pick six and like a 3 yard drive for another TD. 14 points to be pinned on the offense. Also Ind got their final FG on a short field IIRC.

ETA: interesting that scoring defense numbers includes points given up by offense and ST.

 

[Dantés]

I just recall Tampa getting a pick six and like a 3 yard drive for another TD. 14 points to be pinned on the offense. Also Ind got their final FG on a short field IIRC.

Yep. Those things happen. Off setting to a degree would be Barnes swatting away Bridgewater’s gimme touchdown, etc.

 

[GleefulGary]

In terms of yardage so far this year

Hoping for a strong finish obviously

The best defense is a good offense.

Seriously though, our defense in terms of yard per play is pretty mediocre to average. Defense in terms of total yardage is pretty good.

Yards per play is much more reflective of how good/bad a defense is.

 

[Dantés]

The best defense is a good offense.

Seriously though, our defense in terms of yard per play is pretty mediocre to average. Defense in terms of total yardage is pretty good.

Yards per play is much more reflective of how good/bad a defense is.

According to Team Rankings, the Packers are 19th in yards per play allowed (5.6).

 

[Dantés]

The Packers' scoring defense is ranked 14th (24.2). It might surprise some people that it's not worse, but context matters here-- scoring is up across the league.

Their 3rd down defense is 10th, allowing 39% conversion.

Their red zone defense is 15th, allowing 62% of trips into the RZ to result in touchdowns.

They're 18th in points per drive (2.25 points) and 13th in time allowed per drive (2:44).

They're 23rd in pressure percentage (21.2%).

They're 29th in takeaways (14).

So basically, the basic foundation of Pettine's defense is mediocre, just as it was last year. But in 2019, pressure and thus takeaways were way up. This year, both has regressed significantly.

The pressure last night was reminiscent of when the front 7 was running hot in 2019. If that starts up again here down the stretch, with this offense... look out.

 

[gbgary]

terrific game from the D last night. the millionaires on the other side of the field did have a couple of good moments though. the D has played much better since "the talk." losing the green dot has spurred on kirksey, finding permanent spots for savage and amos (not moving them around) has really helped those guys, temporarily demoting preston smith has had a positive affect on him.