official Jimmy Graham signed

[Pokerbrat2000]

Here's what's kind of confusing to me.

Graham had patellar tendon surgery and rehabbed before the 2016 season. He then came out that season and set a career high 14.2 YPC on 65 receptions. It wasn't until 2017 that his YPC regressed to 9.1. So I guess I'm trying to figure out, if the decline in yards per catch is due to declining athleticism and the toll of injuries, why was it so high his first year back from surgery? It's going to be very interesting. I do hope they draft a successor somewhere in the top 100 or so in case he's slowed down at times in 2018.

I guess the same could be said about a lot of players throughout the history of the NFL in regards to stats., they can fluctuate from year to year and I'm not too worried about one year. How was the offense that year, how was he used? Maybe he caught a lot of short passes and not a lot of long passes in 2017. I guess what I am trying to say is that although that number might look "bad", I think there are a lot more factors that go into it.

Nobody really knows what kind of season Graham will have, but IMO, the Packers went out and grabbed the best available TE and it's hard to sit here now and say "they messed up" on this signing, but some will and that is their opinion.

I'm with you on drafting another TE relatively early, maybe 3rd round. There aren't a lot of premier TE's in the draft, but there seems to be quite a few bunched together in that "worthy of a second or third round pick" range.

 

[Dantés]

I guess the same could be said about a lot of players throughout the history of the NFL in regards to stats., they can fluctuate from year to year and I'm not too worried about one year. How was the offense that year, how was he used? Maybe he caught a lot of short passes and not a lot of long passes in 2017. I guess what I am trying to say is that although that number might look "bad", I think there are a lot more factors that go into it.

Nobody really knows what kind of season Graham will have, but IMO, the Packers went out and grabbed the best available TE and it's hard to sit here now and say "they messed up" on this signing, but some will and that is their opinion.

I'm with you on drafting another TE relatively early, maybe 3rd round. There aren't a lot of premier TE's in the draft, but there seems to be quite a few bunched together in that "worthy of a second or third round pick" range.

If they believe he has the ability to be both the dominant RZ player he was last year, and the 14.2 YPC player he was the year before, then I understand the money.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

If they believe he has the ability to be both the dominant RZ player he was last year, and the 14.2 YPC player he was the year before, then I understand the money.

Agreed and I for one assume that they think this is the case or they wouldn't have signed him for that kind of money. I am guessing Graham was pretty excited as well to have the chance to have AR as his QB.

Would I have prefered a contract like the one Wilkerson signed, with a base salary of a few million less and then incentives? Hell yes, but that just doesn't seem to happen often enough in the NFL and I doubt Graham would be a Packer today if that was all they were offering.

 

[Dantés]

Agreed and I for one assume that they think this is the case or they wouldn't have signed him for that kind of money. I am guessing Graham was pretty excited as well to have the chance to have AR as his QB.

Would I have prefered a contract like the one Wilkerson signed, with a base salary of a few million less and then incentives? Hell yes, but that just doesn't seem to happen often enough in the NFL and I doubt Graham would be a Packer today if that was all they were offering.

This was a bad market for teams that need TE's. You're talking about 2-3 guys who can be viewed even as potential starters, and only one guy that's proven. And no team needed a TE worse than the Pack.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

This was a bad market for teams that need TE's. You're talking about 2-3 guys who can be viewed even as potential starters, and only one guy that's proven. And no team needed a TE worse than the Pack.

Agreed and I think some of us were talking about this weeks ago when the news came out that the Seahawks were going to let Graham walk. It isn't any secret that the Packers offense is better with an above average TE and with only Kendricks on the roster, what do you do? As you and I and many others have pointed out, trying to rely on a rookie at TE is probably not the answer. So if you don't sign Graham who do you sign? Very limited market, with the second best TE being a backup in Philly.

I have read and maybe you pointed this out as well, I think Graham is going to help open up the middle of the field and a guy like Cobb will benefit from that.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

Hey I guess we could have waited around and did what the Jags just did, they signed former Redskins 6 year veteran TE Niles Paul on a 2 year deal for $8.7 M.

Pauls stats in 2017

14 games
13 catches
94 yards
7.2 yds/catch
0 TD's

 

[Mondio]

I'm not thrilled with the contract either, but at 7 or 8 I think it would have been in line. I'm not going to be really mad at 10 or 11 whatever it ends up being. He could earn it, or not. I'm hoping he does.

 

[RRyder]

So who has Russell Wilson helped to make look elite during his time in Seattle? You think Russell Wilson is as good of a QB as Rogers or Brees? Why does Gronk look elite?

How often do you see a player switch teams and his game gets better or worse?

If Gronk's contract was up to date, he would be the highest paid TE in the league. Kelce, same thing. So saying "Graham is the highest paid TE" isn't really saying much. Currently he may be, but that will change before his contract is up.

In only 3 seasons Graham set the Seahawks franchise records for a tight end in receiving yards, receiving touchdowns and receptions. He did much of the same while in New Orleans.

Pro Bowls in 4 out of his last 5 years, 2015 he was injured. I suppose doubters now will call him injury prone?

I can't guarantee you that he will be great for the Packers, but I can at least say that IMO the Packers grabbed what appears to be the best FA TE available, as well as one of the best TE's in the NFL. If $10M/year is a complete and utter overpay, what did you expect to pay and what do you expect in return for that investment?

Well to address the bolded.

You're litteraly making my point. A guy that can't excel with just a good QB but needs a HoF QB probably isn't worth the investment

If he was in the same league as those guys you might have a point. Problem is he isn't. The fact that people actually think he's still one of the best TEs in the league is funny. He's a big WR that's, slowing down and dropped more then a few passes last year. He'll be a red zone threat but not much else. Can't imagine how that isn't worth 11 mill the next two years....

This "what did you expect to pay?" Isn't a better argument. How bout just don't sign him for that much?

 

[rodell330]

We have to all ask ourselves the question..would you rather pay Jordy Nelson at this point in his career 10 mil a yr??
Or Jimmy Graham 10 mil a yr at this point in his career. If you look at Jordys production he basically was ZERO factor when Rodgers got hurt.

Graham was just as productive as Nelson in a system where the o line was horrible, they didn’t really have a run game, and the WRs are average at best. So what that means is you know Jimmy Graham was the focal point of the opposing defense, yet he still imo had a pretty good year. I don’t think some of you realize that if you have a TE who can take over a game?? That’s literally going to open up EVERYTHING so much more In not only the passing game...but the run game as well. Teams will now be forced to use more nickel and dime sets against the Packers just so Graham doesn’t destroy their lbs. I wouldn’t be shocked if the Packers lead th league in total offense next year...and rush yards per game.

 

[Arod2gjdd]

Whatever happened to Lance Kendricks? I feel he showed some promise as a pass catcher.

Honestly I don't think Graham is worth the $, but hope he proves me wrong.

 

[sschind]

Agreed and I think some of us were talking about this weeks ago when the news came out that the Seahawks were going to let Graham walk. It isn't any secret that the Packers offense is better with an above average TE and with only Kendricks on the roster, what do you do? As you and I and many others have pointed out, trying to rely on a rookie at TE is probably not the answer. So if you don't sign Graham who do you sign? Very limited market, with the second best TE being a backup in Philly.

I have read and maybe you pointed this out as well, I think Graham is going to help open up the middle of the field and a guy like Cobb will benefit from that.

I had said before that I would prefer Burton at 7-8 million to Graham at 10-11 million (numbers may be a bit off from what I actually posted but you get my idea) and in a way that's kind of out of whack given the production of each player. I guess it came more from the fact that Burton is much younger. Burton looked good in the time he played but what has happened in Philly since he left? They cut Brent Celek as well. The Celek move was most likely a purely cap related one and they may bring him back later at a lower price but I can't help but wonder if they knew they were going to let Celek walk why didn't they try harder to keep Burton. Maybe they did but just couldn't fit his numbers in I don't know.

As you said, it was a weak market for TEs and we needed a TE. Maybe after we see how much all the FA TEs end up getting we can say we can say we paid too much to get Graham. If Celek signs for 5 million maybe we can say "we could have had Brent Celek for 5 million instead of Graham for 11" but when the choice is to pay top dollar to a guy who was, and may still be one of the tops at his position or to pay close to top dollar to get a guy that looked pretty good in his only somewhat major appearance. Maybe the extra money paid to Graham isn't so bad after all. Its only what, an extra 3 million when you look at it that way.

Edit: I saw your post about Niles Paul after I made this post The cheap TE's are starting to fall. Pretty soon we will be able to tell if signing Graham was the right thing to do.

 

[RRyder]

Hey I guess we could have waited around and did what the Jags just did, they signed former Redskins 6 year veteran TE Niles Paul on a 2 year deal for $8.7 M.

Pauls stats in 2017

14 games
13 catches
94 yards
7.2 yds/catch
0 TD's

Yep because if there's one thing that makes giving out ****** deals a good idea is pointing out that other teams gave out ****** deals.

Because not giving out ****** deals regardless of whether other teams give out ****** deals is just not an option I guess

 

[sschind]

I'm not thrilled with the contract either, but at 7 or 8 I think it would have been in line. I'm not going to be really mad at 10 or 11 whatever it ends up being. He could earn it, or not. I'm hoping he does.

I don't think expecting to get Graham for 7 or 8 million when Burton got 8 is very realistic. I note that you didn't say you expected to get him for that just that you would have been OK with that and there is a big difference I admit. My point is that if fans expect to land the top talent they have to expect to pay top dollar. Sometimes I think we severely underestimate what top dollar should be.

 

[Dantés]

Well to address the bolded.

You're litteraly making my point. A guy that can't excel with just a good QB but needs a HoF QB probably isn't worth the investment

If he was in the same league as those guys you might have a point. Problem is he isn't. The fact that people actually think he's still one of the best TEs in the league is funny. He's a big WR that's, slowing down and dropped more then a few passes last year. He'll be a red zone threat but not much else. Can't imagine how that isn't worth 11 mill the next two years....

This "what did you expect to pay?" Isn't a better argument. How bout just don't sign him for that much?

Wait a minute— did Graham not excel with Wilson?

 

[GleefulGary]

Well to address the bolded.

You're litteraly making my point. A guy that can't excel with just a good QB but needs a HoF QB probably isn't worth the investment

If he was in the same league as those guys you might have a point. Problem is he isn't. The fact that people actually think he's still one of the best TEs in the league is funny. He's a big WR that's, slowing down and dropped more then a few passes last year. He'll be a red zone threat but not much else. Can't imagine how that isn't worth 11 mill the next two years....

This "what did you expect to pay?" Isn't a better argument. How bout just don't sign him for that much?

Russ is a damn good QB. Anybody who says otherwise is foolish.

Graham didn't "regress" because of QB talent, it was because of scheme and usage. Seattle did not utilize him as well as they could have.

Graham certainly has declined though, and I don't love the contract. I do think we needed a TE1, and he was about all that was left. I also think not all of his impact will show up on the stat sheet. He's going to open up the field for other players.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

Yep because if there's one thing that makes giving out ****** deals a good idea is pointing out that other teams gave out ****** deals.

Because not giving out ****** deals regardless of whether other teams give out ****** deals is just not an option I guess

Yeah, why look at what else is happening in the league, lets just stay in our own bubble and critique these moves without actually looking at all the facts.

I get it, your opinion of Graham and the deal that the Packers gave him is far lower than mine and I'm not trying to sell you on it. I guess we will see how this turns out in the next 2-3 years.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

I had said before that I would prefer Burton at 7-8 million to Graham at 10-11 million (numbers may be a bit off from what I actually posted but you get my idea) and in a way that's kind of out of whack given the production of each player. I guess it came more from the fact that Burton is much younger. Burton looked good in the time he played but what has happened in Philly since he left? They cut Brent Celek as well. The Celek move was most likely a purely cap related one and they may bring him back later at a lower price but I can't help but wonder if they knew they were going to let Celek walk why didn't they try harder to keep Burton. Maybe they did but just couldn't fit his numbers in I don't know.

As you said, it was a weak market for TEs and we needed a TE. Maybe after we see how much all the FA TEs end up getting we can say we can say we paid too much to get Graham. If Celek signs for 5 million maybe we can say "we could have had Brent Celek for 5 million instead of Graham for 11" but when the choice is to pay top dollar to a guy who was, and may still be one of the tops at his position or to pay close to top dollar to get a guy that looked pretty good in his only somewhat major appearance. Maybe the extra money paid to Graham isn't so bad after all. Its only what, an extra 3 million when you look at it that way.

Edit: I saw your post about Niles Paul after I made this post The cheap TE's are starting to fall. Pretty soon we will be able to tell if signing Graham was the right thing to do.

Originally I liked Burton, but the more I looked at him I started to wonder if he isn't one of those guys that benefited by being a backup and by being so, really wasn't that big of a focus of the other team. So in his limited opportunities, he was able to make some plays.

His 3 year stats really aren't that impressive:

63 catches
629 yards
10.0 yds/catch
6 TDs

But hey, I guess in this day and age, $8M is what those stats get someone.

 

[brandon2348]

Russ is a damn good QB. Anybody who says otherwise is foolish.

Graham didn't "regress" because of QB talent, it was because of scheme and usage. Seattle did not utilize him as well as they could have.

Graham certainly has declined though, and I don't love the contract. I do think we needed a TE1, and he was about all that was left. I also think not all of his impact will show up on the stat sheet. He's going to open up the field for other players.

Not gonna get into a huge debate about RW3 but he isn't Drew Brees and certainly not Aaron Rodgers level and Brees was very disappointed Saints didn't sign Graham basically saying signing Jimmie Graham is "All I think about". I don't know what more people want.

It's all about value and Gute found Value here. If we just get the production Graham had last year this is a win. If he blows it up with AR12 and helps transform the offense it's an unbelievable signing. The whole premise of the Seahawk offense last year was RW3 running around with his head cut off and chucking the ball downfield. If Graham was productive in that situation then I feel very confident he will do well in ours.

 

[Dantés]

I understand the move, but it's hard for me to buy that Gute found value at that number. I think in the better scenarios, Graham makes good on the money. It's hard for me to see him utterly exceeding his price tag like I can with Wilkerson.

 

[brandon2348]

I understand the move, but it's hard for me to buy that Gute found value at that number. I think in the better scenarios, Graham makes good on the money. It's hard for me to see him utterly exceeding his price tag like I can with Wilkerson.

Yes, Wilkerson is probably gonna do down as the steal of this years free agency. Overall Packer fans should be thrilled on what Gute has done so far.

As far as Graham he was the best available receiving TE with production to back it up so not quite sure how the value isn't right. If anyone wants to nit pick anything it's that he dropped some balls. Hopefully he cleans that up.

I see tons of value considering Watkins is basically career Averaging Devante Adams rookie numbers and Allen Robinson played one game last year and is coming off ACL surgery.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

I think anytime you hit free agency and sign the top free agent at a position, it is only normal to wonder if it was a smart move. It's top dollar and every other player below could have been signed cheaper. From memory, this is the first time the Packers have done that (sign the top FA at a position) since maybe Reggie White, unless Mo Bennett was considered to be that last year?

I guess for all those that hate this move, what would you have done?

 

[Dantés]

Yes, Wilkerson is probably gonna do down as the steal of this years free agency. Overall Packer fans should be thrilled on what Gute has done so far.

As far as Graham he was the best available receiving TE with production to back it up so not quite sure how the value isn't right. If anyone wants to nit pick anything it's that he dropped some balls. Hopefully he cleans that up.

I see tons of value considering Watkins is basically career Averaging Devante Adams rookie numbers and Allen Robinson played one game last year and is coming off ACL surgery.

When you talk about value, I'm thinking of finding a guy who can perform above his pay grade. Wilkerson has the potential to play like a top 5 iDL, but he's only going to make a max of 8M. So his play could far exceed his price. That's what I'm thinking of when you say value.

Graham could play very well in Green Bay. But he's basically the highest paid TE in the league at this point. So if he plays exceptionally well, he's only matching his price tag. I don't see a scenario where he outplays his price tag.

I understand the move and the need. But I don't see the pathway to ++ value. I also don't see why we would judge it based on comparisons to wide receiver contracts. That's clearly a different market.

 

[brandon2348]

I think anytime you hit free agency and sign the top free agent at a position, it is only normal to wonder if it was a smart move. It's top dollar and every other player below could have been signed cheaper. From memory, this is the first time the Packers have done that (sign the top FA at a position), unless Mo Bennett was considered to be that last year?

I guess for all those that hate this move, what would you have done?

Apparently they wanted to roll Richard Rodgers out there and prey some rookie was gonna explode onto the seen and watch Jordy slug around out there and not get any separation and the offense spudder.

 

[brandon2348]

When you talk about value, I'm thinking of finding a guy who can perform above his pay grade. Wilkerson has the potential to play like a top 5 iDL, but he's only going to make a max of 8M. So his play could far exceed his price. That's what I'm thinking of when you say value.

Graham could play very well in Green Bay. But he's basically the highest paid TE in the league at this point. So if he plays exceptionally well, he's only matching his price tag. I don't see a scenario where he outplays his price tag.

I understand the move and the need. But I don't see the pathway to ++ value. I also don't see why we would judge it based on comparisons to wide receiver contracts. That's clearly a different market.

Didn't Jimmie Graham want his value to be calculated on being a receiver when at Saints? He is truly a unique player so have to take that into consideration.

 

[Dantés]

Didn't Jimmie Graham want his value to be calculated on being a receiver when at Saints? He is truly a unique player so have to take that into consideration.

Who cares? All of the best and highest paid tight ends are pass catchers first. To say he’s a value by comparing his money to actually WR contracts is homer analysis. That would be like the Jags saying they got great value on Norwel by pointing to Nate Solder’s deal,