Nelson signs with Da Raiders

[swhitset]

i could actually see that before i see jordy returning to 2016 form from the slot.

I'm not sure what you are basing that on. He looked very good last year until Rodgers went down.

 

[hallzi43]

I'm not sure what you are basing tha on. He looked very good last year until Rodgers went down.

Very good is a huge stretch. Rodgers found him in the rz but otherwise he was largely non existent with and especially without rodgers.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

I'm not sure what you are basing tha on. He looked very good last year until Rodgers went down.

Agreed.

The synergy between Rodgers and Nelson is obvious and if people don't recognize that for one of the biggest reason Nelson didn't have a statistically better year in 2017 aren't looking clearly at the big picture. Look what happened to #12 when Jordy went down in 2015. Without his #1 WR, Aaron struggled for a bit.

All that said, is Jordy being overpaid on his current contract? Sure, but I don't think as much as some think.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

Very good is a huge stretch. Rodgers found him in the rz but otherwise he was largely non existent with and especially without rodgers.

He was very good in the red zone, which you need don't you?

Nelsons 2017 stats with Rodgers at QB

4 games
6 TD's
19 receptions
230 yds
12.11 yds/catch

Extrapolate that over 16 games.

24 TD's
76 receptions
920 yds

I am fine with that.

 

[hallzi43]

He was very good in the red zone, which you need don't you?

Nelsons 2017 stats with Rodgers at QB

4 games
6 TD's
19 receptions
230 yds
12.11 yds/catch

Extrapolate that over 16 games.

24 TD's
76 receptions
920 yds

I am fine with that.

if only thats how it worked.

i dont mind him coming back. but i think you are fooling yourself if you think hes the same guy he was in 2016. if he comes at a much lower cap number it of course makes a lot of sense.

we currently have 3 of the top 19 paid wrs in the league. broncos are the only other team with 2.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

if only thats how it worked.

i dont mind him coming back. but i think you are fooling yourself if you think hes the same guy he was in 2016. if he comes at a much lower cap number it of course makes a lot of sense.

we currently have 3 of the top 19 paid wrs in the league. broncos are the only other team with 2.

Again, I am not saying Jordy wouldn't most likely be overpaid on his existing contract and thus it would be great to renegotiate his contract. However, I think too many people are basing their opinions of what Nelson will do in 2018 off of what he did for 3/4 of the season with Hundley at QB.

Have to trust the Packers FO and coaches on the decision with Nelson, I think they are in a better position of knowing what he is worth to the Packers moving forward.

 

[hallzi43]

Again, I am not saying Jordy wouldn't most likely be overpaid on his existing contract and thus it would be great to renegotiate his contract. However, I think too many people are basing their opinions of what Nelson will do in 2018 off of what he did for 3/4 of the season with Hundley at QB.

Have to trust the Packers FO and coaches on the decision with Nelson, I think they are in a better position of knowing what he is worth to the Packers moving forward.

heh id like to trust the FO however with 3 wrs at 35M and the likelyhood that we are about to shell out 100M guaranteed to our QB clouds my judgement at the moment. But I guess we will see what happens here.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

i dont mind him coming back. but i think you are fooling yourself if you think hes the same guy he was in 2016. if he comes at a much lower cap number it of course makes a lot of sense.

we currently have 3 of the top 19 paid wrs in the league. broncos are the only other team with 2.

There's absolutely no doubt the Packers have to reduce the cap hit the team has currently allocated towards their wide receivers. It's definitely not a smart way to handle the cap having more than $10 million more invested in a position than any other team in the league.

Nevertheless it's realistic to expect Nelson to put up decent numbers with Rodgers starting though.

 

[HardRightEdge]

Very good is a huge stretch. Rodgers found him in the rz but otherwise he was largely non existent with and especially without rodgers.

Nelson has never been the same since the ACL He lost the long speed and it continues to erode. He's a possession receiver at this stage. I think he could be good in that role this year, but I would not want to pay what's on his contract and I would not want to extend him into futher age and decline. 1 year / $6 million in place of the current contract, take it or leave it, and that's only because the Packers have to draft high for a corner now, maybe 2, or a corner and safety. That fits in a 2 year plan.

 

[OldSchool101]

Nelson has never been the same since the ACL He lost the long speed and it continues to erode. He's a possession receiver at this stage. I think he could be good in that role this year, but I would not want to pay what's on his contract and I would not want to extend him into futher age and decline. 1 year / $6 million in place of the current contract, take it or leave it, and that's only because the Packers have to draft high for a corner now, maybe 2, or a corner and safety. That fits in a 2 year plan.

We owe him 2.3 dead money if we walk him in 2018, so are you offering him 3.7M/1yr? Kinda low if you ask me for a Guy who routinely puts up around 1000 yards and has been the face of our receiving core for years now.
I’d rather resign him to a short 2yr deal in the 15M range. Allocate 7.5M this year (that’s a 5M Credit towards our Cap in 2018 and only $5.2 net difference when you take into account his dead money. Then designate as a June 2019 cut unless he bounces back. If he puts up 1000+/10Tds+ etc.. in 2018. Keep him n let him retire a Packer after next year

While I don’t think Jordy is at his 2016 form, I do believe he can be very effective in the area of (8TDs/900yds+/12YPC kinda production.
Keep in mind factoring our dead Cap that’s 12.7 net 2years or just over 6M per year for a pretty decent WR.
See Fitzgerald’s yearly, age, stats

 

[HardRightEdge]

We owe him 2.3 dead money if we walk him in 2018, so are you offering him 3.7M/1yr?

A team does not owe the player dead cap money unless it's guaranteed money, which is not the case here.

In this case (as with Cobb, Matthews and Bulaga), the dead cap is the balance of the signing bonus from the last contract. That money has already been paid to the player.

Here's the outcome of my proposed 1 year / $6 million deal replacing Nelson's last year of the current contract:

Current Nelson cap hit for 2018: $12.5 million
Current Nelson dead cap assumed in "cutting" Nelson: $2.3 million
Cap savings in "cutting" Nelson: $10.2 million
Cap hit in "resigning" Nelson to a year / $6 million: $6 million

Cap Savings: $4.2 million

This gets his pay and cap in line with value without assuming the risk of deferring the problem to 2019 with a declining receiver who will be 34 years old at that time.

It's funny. When these contracts are written, you'll have people tell you it's all about the guaranteed money and that the last year or two of the contract where the dead cap drops to a manageable level provides an out in the event of player decline. Then that time comes and they want to extend the guy with a renegotiation!

Well, I proposed the renegotiation that the original contract contemplated.

I'm sorry, but if folks want to say Nelson is worth more than I proposed because of his "mind meld" with Rodgers, that's not how value is set. Perhaps the money should accrue to Rodgers then, not Nelson, because other teams will question his value to them with their QB. We talk from time to time about "system QBs" and their performance level tied to the system they are in. If a guy is pegged that way, it diminishes his open market value. Now we hear the argument that Nelson is a "system WR", which I believe is the correct view. That cannot help but diminish his open market value.

It's business. These guys are paid tens of millions over a decade, then when their time is running short you cannot pay "thanks for the memoreis" money.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

Here's the outcome of my proposed 1 year / $6 million deal replacing Nelson's last year of the current contract:

Current Nelson cap hit for 2018: $12.5 million
Current Nelson dead cap assumed in "cutting" Nelson: $2.3 million
Cap savings in "cutting" Nelson: $10.2 million
Cap hit in "resigning" Nelson to a year / $6 million: $6 million

Cap Savings: $4.2 million

This gets his pay and cap in line with value without assuming the risk of deferring the problem to 2019 with a declining receiver who will be 34 years old at that time.

While it's an intriguing idea the Packers risk Nelson being offered more money by another team and moving on though.

 

[gbgary]

he's not going anywhere...unless the Packers think geronimo can get 10+ tds and 1000+ yards a year. it ain't happenin'.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

Before today, all I was concerned about in the way of our WR's wasn't production, but the question of "Are they being overpaid for what we are getting and if they are, wouldn't that money be better spent elsewhere?" Well after the last 24 hrs and seeing the numbers jumping out for some of the FA WR's about to be signed, my paranoia and fears have been completely quelled. I can now see 2018 clearer with Jordy, Randall and Davante as our WR's and a high round pick getting some reps in preparation to take over for Jordy or Cobb in 2019.

 

[gbgary]

Before today, all I was concerned about in the way of our WR's wasn't production, but the question of "Are they being overpaid for what we are getting and if they are, wouldn't that money be better spent elsewhere?" Well after the last 24 hrs and seeing the numbers jumping out for some of the FA WR's about to be signed, my paranoia and fears have been completely quelled. I can now see 2018 clearer with Jordy, Randall and Davante as our WR's and a high round pick getting some reps in preparation to take over for Jordy or Cobb in 2019.

yup...and you have to throw out production numbers for last year at the point Rodgers went down. antonio brown would have sucked last year had he been a Packer.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

I do hope they can find another decent TE, whether its in Free Agency or the draft, but I still have hopes that Lance Kendricks, after another offseason of being in the system and working with #12, will be a much better TE than what we saw in 2017. Might be an area where we see a 2nd or 3rd rd pick used.

Time to get this off season moving and fix the damn defense!

 

[C-Lee]

[TWEET]https://twitter.com/AdamSchefter/status/973656544230498305[/TWEET]

Wow

 

[PackerDNA]

If you're going off a tweet by Ian Rappaport, then that's a fake account.

 

[thisisnate]

...


This will be a sad day if true. Can we... cut him and then re-sign him for less?

 

[DarkHelmet]

If true, I'm not happy. Sure, his numbers were way down last year -- he had one of the worst quarterbacks in franchise history for most of the season.

 

[Gonepackin]

There is no loyalty in pro sports. Goodbye, Jordy.

 

[PackerDNA]

Check that ,C-Lee. Just saw it by Shefter-the real one.
Good catch, buddy.

 

[RepStar15]

Think he retires?

 

[DarkHelmet]

Probably would have lasted longer if he hadn't had the injury in a stupid pre-season game.

 

[Sunshinepacker]

Not to worry, they're gonna replace him with a 31-year old TE who set a career low in yards per reception last year!