He is not under contract for the 2019 season so if they don't extend him any money pushed into 2019 would be dead cap money. Could you give me an example of what you would propose for them not to retain his service but still push money into next year, I don't quite understand. I'm sure it could be done but I'm not sure how or why they would want to do it.
Nelson signs with Da Raiders
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He is not under contract for the 2019 season so if they don't extend him any money pushed into 2019 would be dead cap money. Could you give me an example of what you would propose for them not to retain his service but still push money into next year, I don't quite understand. I'm sure it could be done but I'm not sure how or why they would want to do it.
2 years $30m, $10m signing bonus. $2m this year, $18m next. Designate as a post June 1 cut next April.
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Deleted member 6794
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If the Packers restructure Nelson's contract they would obviously retain him for this season.
That would reduce Nelson's cap hit for this season by $3.2 million while he would receive an additional $1.75 million. It would be obvious to everyone there's no way the Packers hold on to him in 2019 though.
Obviously they would retain his services for 2018, I was talking about 2019. I thought that was obvious but obviously not. You said The Packers restructuring Nelson's contract wouldn't automatically result in the team holding on to him beyond this year but push part of his cap hit into the 2019 season. I was wondering how you would do that.
Poppa gave one possibility and I would like to know if that is what you had in mind. If not how would you push cap money into 2019 and not retain his services for 2019.
That would leave 2.5 million dead in 2019 and 2020 correct. Is a 3.2 million dollar savings this year worth 2.5 million in dead cap for the next two years.
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The only way to push part of Nelson's cap hit into the 2019 season is to sign him to an extension lowering his base salary for this year and give him a signing bonus with it being prorated over the length of the new deal.
It seems the Packers need cap space for this season but are in a better situation in 2019 and beyond.
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HardRightEdge
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There's the rub. Do you really want to extend a wide receiver who has shown signs of decline out to age 34 or beyond? If your horizon extends beyond 2018, the answer is "no".
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HardRightEdge
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I don't find that to be so obvious.
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HardRightEdge
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No kidding. The Packers are in a better position for 2019 because $42 million in 2018 cap associated with Matthews, Nelson, Cobb and Clinton-Dix drops off in 2019 as things stand today.
But then you have to replace those players. Or extend them and some of that cap goes ****. If you extend them, the ever present questions comes into play: (1) are you getting value for your cap and (2) who else ya got?
Randall and Montgomery will also be free agents. Together, they only account for about $3 million in cap this year. Will they have good years and prove themselves to be worth keeping? If so, that will eat into the cap. If they don't, especially with Randall, the "who else ya got" becomes that much more acute now and in 2019.
Here are Gutekunst's recent thoughts on the matter with the salient quote noted below:
http://host.madison.com/wsj/sports/...cle_9a2193e4-e897-5034-8d2c-64dc1031d06c.html
“To me, the big thing I’ve stressed with our guys is we’re going to be as prepared as we can to know those scenarios and to know what each player’s value is in free agency, the draft and so forth, so when those opportunities present themselves, if it makes our team better, we’ll pull those triggers on whatever side that falls on.”
Something tells me Gutefreund is more intimately familiar with the cap situation in a multi-year perspective than when first hired and promising to be active in free agency. Maybe a couple of cheap vets will be brought on after the draft when teams start cutting vets who they have replaced with draftees.
Sure. That's the value-for-cap and "who else ya got" equation in a nutshell. If the Packers have an OLB and a WR targeted for the first two rounds, and they land them, then don't be too surprised to see 2 of the 3 big names on the bubble.
Look, if current problems required only a little patching, backing and filling was what was needed, we would not see the overhaul in both coaching and the front office. If there was some plan in the past aimed at winning a Superbowl, the window of opportunity was seen as closing right about now otherwise the 3 big contracts we're discussing would not be in parallel with substantial cap savings hitting in the same year.
A two year plan is in order, and that does not involve extending these players. Now, if the proposition was, "take a one year deal rewrite for 2018 at half the current pay or we'll cut you", depending on who gets drafted, that might make some sense. Expecting players to take that is probably unrealistic. And if one of them, perhaps Nelson, saw that as the best option you now have an unhappy player.
One things for sure...letting these 3 players play out their contracts at these cap amounts is not acceptable.
This is what happens after years of poor-to-mediocre drafts. You don't fix that by extending aging and declining players.
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Out of context. As it is now it is not obvious they will keep him around for 2018 but we were talking about if they sign him to an extension. If they sign him to an extension they would be pretty stupid to cut him in 2018 as all, or at least half of the signing bonus would then count against the cap depending on when they cut him.
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HardRightEdge
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Saying something is stupid when it is obviously stupid isn't saying much.
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Deleted member 6794
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The only reason behind signing Nelson to an extension is to reduce his cap hit for this season. That doesn't automatically result in the Packers having to hold on to him in 2019.
There's absolutely no doubt the Packers will be faced with a lot of challenging decisions this offseason. My point was that Gutekunst will have significantly more cap space to work with in 2019 and therefore could extend Matthews, Cobb and Nelson to reduce their cap hit for this season.
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HardRightEdge
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Extend the players into 2019 who are the very same players whose contract expirations currently account for the current cap space in 2019? Interesting math. Turning a one year cap hit in the $11 - $13 million range into 2 years at $12 million doesn't exactly help matters with a group of declining/aging/underperforming players. And that's assuming the players are willing. Cobb given his age and Matthews give the cost of edge rushers have a good chance of doing better than that.
The fact nothing has happened on this front, together with the statement from Gutekunst, indicates to me that the Packers are looking to address the "who else ya got?" element of the equation in the draft.
I would expect the decisions who to keep for the one year, who to drop, or who to seek to extend will be addressed based on the remaining "who else ya got" issues that remain.
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The other issue is that his primary value is the Rodgers Nelson mind meld. Thats a lot of money for a guy who will probably only be effective with Rodgers on the field.
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The whole team is only effective with Rodgers on the field. Without him, it makes no difference who is catching the throws.
It looks foolish right now only for the fact that we don't have anything behind him that can step in and take his spot. Outside of the connection he has with Rodgers (a connection we didn't even see during the Panther game when we needed it the most last season) Jordy has been a completely lost entity. If we were to bring in one of Moncrief, Robinson, Richardson, heck even Pryor for a visit and they were hooked it would be almost ludicrous to hedge your bets on a guy like Jordy. Then there is the belief from some that you cut Cobb before Jordy and move Jordy to slot if you can bring in someone else. Which sounds nice in theory, but we could probably draft a guy in the mid rounds that could produce just as much on the field as either Jordy or Cobb and open up our cap tremendously. So ya, right now without anything in line to replace any of these guys, it looks foolish. But it is more foolish if we aren't looking at options to replace these guys now or in the near future.
OldSchool101
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Im not opposed to the idea of a 1yr extension through 2019 on terms that are both team friendly and allow him the respect to walk away with some dignity, he deserves that much.
Regardless, he costs 2.3M just to cut, so if we balanced his hit at 8.5 in 2018 (only 6.2M additional real $ this year when accounting for his 2.3M dead Cap which is a default if we cut him) and about roughly 7.5M range next year counting against the 2019 Cap, thats a decent range for both sides to work together. It gives us an additional 4M added to our Cap to work with this year and are we going to get his production from a rookie or FA for under 6.2M?? I highly doubt that and there’s too many variables there anyway.
If he takes his 2.3 and walks what is his offer elsewhere?? Certainly not more than 8M ceiling range and likely a short term 1yr 4M-8M deal (remember he needs just 6.2M to match our offer) that he has to up and move his family for and then start from scratch?! I don’t think so.
It’s a fair deal and allows us at least an extra year (or 2 if needed) to draft and/or develop his replacement which is ideal while we allocate resources to bolster our Defense.
If an aging, but seasoned James Jones can lead our team in production his last season at roughly the same age? I’m quite sure Jordy can repeat. Aaron and Jordy were one of the most successful QB/WR duos through week 5 last year, it’s not like he blew his Achilles or something.
Regardless, he costs 2.3M just to cut, so if we balanced his hit at 8.5 in 2018 (only 6.2M additional real $ this year when accounting for his 2.3M dead Cap which is a default if we cut him) and about roughly 7.5M range next year counting against the 2019 Cap, thats a decent range for both sides to work together. It gives us an additional 4M added to our Cap to work with this year and are we going to get his production from a rookie or FA for under 6.2M?? I highly doubt that and there’s too many variables there anyway.
If he takes his 2.3 and walks what is his offer elsewhere?? Certainly not more than 8M ceiling range and likely a short term 1yr 4M-8M deal (remember he needs just 6.2M to match our offer) that he has to up and move his family for and then start from scratch?! I don’t think so.
It’s a fair deal and allows us at least an extra year (or 2 if needed) to draft and/or develop his replacement which is ideal while we allocate resources to bolster our Defense.
If an aging, but seasoned James Jones can lead our team in production his last season at roughly the same age? I’m quite sure Jordy can repeat. Aaron and Jordy were one of the most successful QB/WR duos through week 5 last year, it’s not like he blew his Achilles or something.
I just don't see the hurt in letting him on the open market. He doubtfully finds anything appealing and he has already said hes willing to restructure. There is no way you can go into next season at his current cap number. It makes entirely no sense.
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Deleted member 6794
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Once again, restructuring the contracts of Matthews, Nelson and/or Cobb would create additional cap space for this season. It might make sense to extend Matthews and Cobb for a couple of years though resulting in the cap space being spread out over several seasons though. That's definitely not an option with Nelson.
Nelson was pretty successful lining up in the slot in 2016 therefore I don't believe you could easily replace him with a mid round pick. I agree the Packers need another outside receiver opposite of Adams but none of the guys you mentioned present an intriguing option in my opinion.
OldSchool101
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I love what Jordy has done for us. But love doesn’t pay the bills (as least legally!)
Im in agreement that I wouldn’t pay him 12.5M. I’ll take my chances in FA and the draft it’s there’s no consideration on that side of the table.
I can't help you imagine anything lol... but I can imagine it myself.
lol while you are at it imagine matthews as a double digit sack artist as well.
That's a little harder.
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