Mock Offseason

[sschind]

The way I am excited about Jackson is scarely enough very comparable to how I was feeling about Rollins after his first season though.

And I think the lesson to be learned from that is not that you shouldn't get excited, just that you should not bank on it.

I'll be excited about pretty much every player Gute adds this off season. After the season most likely not so much.

 

[OldSchool101]

How do you explain that? Probably slow starter and the speed timing started after he was up to speed when he caught the ball? I dont know, but shows you how speed stats may not be accurate.

Yeah I keep going back to Jerry Rice. He could cut and run routes on the dime. I also believe Some guys are slow out of the blocks.

The way I am excited about Jackson is scarely enough very comparable to how I was feeling about Rollins after his first season though.

I was thinking that exact thing as I wrote this. However Jackson was a projected starter but needing some seasoning while Rollins was an outside shot to start.
Jackson has played football his whole life but was a backup to some talented Hawkeye CBs, while Rollins was really a basketball player and played just one year in the sport which is altogether different IMO.
There’s no question there should always be speculation but Jackson has a definitive strong edge over Rollins. Rollins was lucky to get picked day 2 even he was surprised. Jackson had a shot as a first day guy all along but slipped draft day. Straight line speed is similar but other than that Jackson. wins every possible combine of proday drill. Not to mention bigger hands, 1.2” taller, has bigger hands, longer arms.. etc..

 

[Deleted member 6794]

As far as Jackson, nearly everyone that saw him slide and get picked mid-round 2 was excited. He was projected as a risky first day pick. There’s a reason 13 teams passed on him not once, but twice. Keep in mind he was a receiver turned CB in 2015.

Jackson played defensive back in high school as well.

 

[AmishMafia]

Gute's Loot (so far)

1. S Adrian Amos
2. OLB ZD'arius Smith
3. OLB Preston Smith
4. OG/OT Billy Turner

Projected resignings
Breeland - Surprised we haven't lost him already. I thought he was decent and getting better

Wilkerson - Got to see what he can do. We may roll with Montavious Adams as he really came around. But if Mo can be had for 3 or 4 M/yr, good to have him on the roster.

Notable Goners
Perry (already axed)

Clay Matthews - small chance he returns but it is for a fraction of what he is used to. Ego won't allow him to sign what he is worth. Expect him to be a Raider

Tramon - sorry buddy. Great player and even greater person. Have to move on though

DRAFT

Trade with Washington 1.12 an 6.194 for 1.15 and 3.76 - based on last year, Gute will be trading. With Devin WHite off the board, and 2 OTs still there, J Williams and Taylor, we drop down a few picks.

1.18 OT Jawaan Taylor - Flexibility. Can play OG or OT, depending on what the Packers need. Got by with strength and nasty in college - but has the feet and some technique. Will likely develop into a very good OT.

1.30 S Jonathan Abram - perfect pairing for Amos. Abram is an enforcer who excels in the box. He hits hard and seems to enjoy it. AND he is functional in coverage. He is very savvy and football smart. He should be an effective starter as a rookie.

2.44 DT Jeffrey Simmons If not for the injury would be my #1 target at 12. Tough to say where he will go and how bad the injury, but guessing he makes it here. He should be playing mid season. He is a beast and a great guy (Not sure how the woman beating incident plays - I'm not holding it against him)

3.75 RB Miles Sanders Was very impressive at the combine. A superb athlete, he tested better than most expected. All around good player - running with speed, power, and vision. Is good as a receiver, but he needs to work on his routes. May go earlier, but it seems RBs go later than they should. Backing up Barkley, he doesn't have much wear on the tread. WIth experience, he got better every week - I expect that to continue into the pros. I like both Jones and WIlliams, but Sanders can be an every down player and more durable. We need a 3rd option.

3.76 WR Terry Godwin very explosive and quick WR. Could go higher, but it seems there are 15-20 other WRs in this 3rd tier. Will be a good Slot player in the NFL. In the senior bowl, he was constantly getting seperation - very good route runner and quick out of his breaks. Thats a great combo.

TRADE Pack gets 4.104 San Fran gets 4.110 and 5.150 Gute sees the last of the starter level OGs and pulls the trigger

4.104 OG Connor McGovern Penn State - Can play OC as well. All around good player who is athletic enough to do just about everything the Packers could ask. Efficient in both run and pass blocking. Not all pro level, but will be a very solid dependable player. We need another OG this season. FA Turner can be on the right, McG can man the left.

4.110 Traded

4.118 TE Kahale Warring - very athletic TE. Looked good at combine, tested well and performed well in field drills. Not featured much in college and not sure why. Seems to me he could have been used better - so this is a gamble of a pick.

5.150 Traded

6.185 DE John Cominsky 6'5" 285 - very athletic - Tested very highly. Played at small school Charleston. Has a ways to go with development. Former QB. Lots of questions about his technique and level of competition. Should have been more successful.

6.194 Traded

7.226 DE Corbin Kaufusi 6'9"!!! 285 BYU. Too skinny and tall to play. But you have to love the effort. Was surprisingly effective and embarrassed WI OT Edwards early last season. He is going to have to ride the pine on the practice squad for a year, but I would be very curious to keep him around and see if he can develop into something. Maybe a creative defensive guru like Pettine can figure out a way to use him.


There you have it. Maybe will tweak in a few weeks, but otherwise I think this is fairly realistic.

We are going to roll with what we have at ILB. They traded up for Burke last year, they must have a plan for him. Otherwise I would be looking at Tre Lamar, Mack Wilson, or Pratt in the 3rd.

 

[Dantés]

Gute's Loot (so far)

1. S Adrian Amos
2. OLB ZD'arius Smith
3. OLB Preston Smith
4. OG/OT Billy Turner

Projected resignings
Breeland - Surprised we haven't lost him already. I thought he was decent and getting better

Wilkerson - Got to see what he can do. We may roll with Montavious Adams as he really came around. But if Mo can be had for 3 or 4 M/yr, good to have him on the roster.

Notable Goners
Perry (already axed)

Clay Matthews - small chance he returns but it is for a fraction of what he is used to. Ego won't allow him to sign what he is worth. Expect him to be a Raider

Tramon - sorry buddy. Great player and even greater person. Have to move on though

DRAFT

Trade with Washington 1.12 an 6.194 for 1.15 and 3.76 - based on last year, Gute will be trading. With Devin WHite off the board, and 2 OTs still there, J Williams and Taylor, we drop down a few picks.

1.18 OT Jawaan Taylor - Flexibility. Can play OG or OT, depending on what the Packers need. Got by with strength and nasty in college - but has the feet and some technique. Will likely develop into a very good OT.

1.30 S Jonathan Abram - perfect pairing for Amos. Abram is an enforcer who excels in the box. He hits hard and seems to enjoy it. AND he is functional in coverage. He is very savvy and football smart. He should be an effective starter as a rookie.

2.44 DT Jeffrey Simmons If not for the injury would be my #1 target at 12. Tough to say where he will go and how bad the injury, but guessing he makes it here. He should be playing mid season. He is a beast and a great guy (Not sure how the woman beating incident plays - I'm not holding it against him)

3.75 RB Miles Sanders Was very impressive at the combine. A superb athlete, he tested better than most expected. All around good player - running with speed, power, and vision. Is good as a receiver, but he needs to work on his routes. May go earlier, but it seems RBs go later than they should. Backing up Barkley, he doesn't have much wear on the tread. WIth experience, he got better every week - I expect that to continue into the pros. I like both Jones and WIlliams, but Sanders can be an every down player and more durable. We need a 3rd option.

3.76 WR Terry Godwin very explosive and quick WR. Could go higher, but it seems there are 15-20 other WRs in this 3rd tier. Will be a good Slot player in the NFL. In the senior bowl, he was constantly getting seperation - very good route runner and quick out of his breaks. Thats a great combo.

TRADE Pack gets 4.104 San Fran gets 4.110 and 5.150 Gute sees the last of the starter level OGs and pulls the trigger

4.104 OG Connor McGovern Penn State - Can play OC as well. All around good player who is athletic enough to do just about everything the Packers could ask. Efficient in both run and pass blocking. Not all pro level, but will be a very solid dependable player. We need another OG this season. FA Turner can be on the right, McG can man the left.

4.110 Traded

4.118 TE Kahale Warring - very athletic TE. Looked good at combine, tested well and performed well in field drills. Not featured much in college and not sure why. Seems to me he could have been used better - so this is a gamble of a pick.

5.150 Traded

6.185 DE John Cominsky 6'5" 285 - very athletic - Tested very highly. Played at small school Charleston. Has a ways to go with development. Former QB. Lots of questions about his technique and level of competition. Should have been more successful.

6.194 Traded

7.226 DE Corbin Kaufusi 6'9"!!! 285 BYU. Too skinny and tall to play. But you have to love the effort. Was surprisingly effective and embarrassed WI OT Edwards early last season. He is going to have to ride the pine on the practice squad for a year, but I would be very curious to keep him around and see if he can develop into something. Maybe a creative defensive guru like Pettine can figure out a way to use him.


There you have it. Maybe will tweak in a few weeks, but otherwise I think this is fairly realistic.

We are going to roll with what we have at ILB. They traded up for Burke last year, they must have a plan for him. Otherwise I would be looking at Tre Lamar, Mack Wilson, or Pratt in the 3rd.

LOVE the include of the term Gute Loot. A+ for that alone.

I would add Crosby as a probably goner.

I know it's semi pointless to debate who will/won't be where, but I don't buy Taylor making it to #18 at all. Taylor is a really great OT prospect, it's a premium position, and the Jets, Bucs, Giants (who pick twice before #18), Jaguars, Bengals, and Dolphins all have significant needs at tackle.

There are several safeties in this class that I prefer to Abram. I think his tendency to make some jarring hits causes his hype to outstrip his ability.

Terry Godwin's combine was pretty terrible for a receiver in the top 100.

McGovern and Warring are nice prospects, but I question them being available in the 4th round.

 

[AmishMafia]

LOVE the include of the term Gute Loot. A+ for that alone.

I would add Crosby as a probably goner.

I know it's semi pointless to debate who will/won't be where, but I don't buy Taylor making it to #18 at all. Taylor is a really great OT prospect, it's a premium position, and the Jets, Bucs, Giants (who pick twice before #18), Jaguars, Bengals, and Dolphins all have significant needs at tackle.

There are several safeties in this class that I prefer to Abram. I think his tendency to make some jarring hits causes his hype to outstrip his ability.

Terry Godwin's combine was pretty terrible for a receiver in the top 100.

McGovern and Warring are nice prospects, but I question them being available in the 4th round.

Probably right on Taylor. I think William's will be more likely available at 18.

Good point on Crosby. Planned to put a PK in there. Gute got a P and LS last year. Not afraid to pick a special teamer in draft. Bet he snags a PK in 4th to 6th.

 

[OldSchool101]

Wilkerson - Got to see what he can do. We may roll with Montavious Adams as he really came around. But if Mo can be had for 3 or 4 M/yr, good to have him on the roster.

I think it’s reasonable he would sign there coming off a pretty bad injury. I like 3.5M range give or take if he passes his physical

Hoping we can resign Breeland in the 5-7M range. Ideally if Breeland and Mo would be about the same $ as 2018 combined I’d be elated.

 

[brandon2348]

like we did with Graham for $10M? And got almost nothing, I'm a Hock fan, he brings the total package, and it won't be for $10M. If he's still there at 12, I'd like to trade down enough to get extra picks but still end up with him.

I know your a "HOCK FAN" like many it seems but trust me when I tell you drafting him that high with the other players we can get that help us on offense WIN NOW would DEVASTATING!

 

[OldSchool101]

The only reason Hock gets drafted that high is because he’s multi faceted and would be cheap insurance. He’d be great for a double team block off the edge if someone’s getting beat, but if the pass rush changes directions? he can roll out as an effective receiver and make that same over aggressive pass rush pay. He has reliable hands and is instinctive enough to look for that quick unload.

He’s very good at both blocking and catching and protecting Aaron has to be at the forefront of our thinking. We saw evidence in that concept with the Mercedes resign.



There isn’t a WR in the universe that can catch passes while Aaron’s lying on the ground holding his arm in pain again

 

[Dantés]

Probably right on Taylor. I think William's will be more likely available at 18.

Good point on Crosby. Planned to put a PK in there. Gute got a P and LS last year. Not afraid to pick a special teamer in draft. Bet he snags a PK in 4th to 6th.

With the impending need at RT, and how hard/expensive it is to find good tackles, I think their plan should be to stick at #12 and take one there if that's an option. If they're all gone, then I would explore the trade down scenario.

Jonah Williams' draft slot is a total mystery to me. I would take him at #12 all day long. I think he's a top 5 prospect in this class and definitely an OT who can probably also play all 5 spots on the line. However, you get very polarized reviews on him from various analysts.

I would also be all in on drafting Andre Dillard at #12. That kid was great in college and only had questions because of the system he played in. But he has absolutely aced every aspect of the offseason. I think he's going to be a stud.

 

[AmishMafia]

With the impending need at RT, and how hard/expensive it is to find good tackles, I think their plan should be to stick at #12 and take one there if that's an option. If they're all gone, then I would explore the trade down scenario.

Jonah Williams' draft slot is a total mystery to me. I would take him at #12 all day long. I think he's a top 5 prospect in this class and definitely an OT who can probably also play all 5 spots on the line. However, you get very polarized reviews on him from various analysts.

I would also be all in on drafting Andre Dillard at #12. That kid was great in college and only had questions because of the system he played in. But he has absolutely aced every aspect of the offseason. I think he's going to be a stud.

With the signing of 2 OLBs, I think the strategy is to go OT with our 1st pick. If White is there, i go that route and hit Risner at 30. Or maybe trade up from 30 if one of the other 3 lasts till 20. Something tells me that Cody Ford will eat his way out of the NFL. Not sure why. I think it will go, Taylor, Dillard, Williams, Ford, and Risner. I would be happy with the first 3 at 12, but I worry that they will drop off quickly. The OT crop has lacked for a few years and teams are needy.

 

[Sunshinepacker]

With the impending need at RT, and how hard/expensive it is to find good tackles, I think their plan should be to stick at #12 and take one there if that's an option. If they're all gone, then I would explore the trade down scenario.

Jonah Williams' draft slot is a total mystery to me. I would take him at #12 all day long. I think he's a top 5 prospect in this class and definitely an OT who can probably also play all 5 spots on the line. However, you get very polarized reviews on him from various analysts.

I would also be all in on drafting Andre Dillard at #12. That kid was great in college and only had questions because of the system he played in. But he has absolutely aced every aspect of the offseason. I think he's going to be a stud.

I don't understand this desire to draft OTs high. If he's by far the best player, go for it, but olineman is probably the position that's easiest to fill with late round guys (excluding kickers, long snappers, etc.). I personally think an edge rusher should still be something of a priority with the team's first pick. While the team has certainly improved their pass rush they still lack an elite speed guy. The two guys they signed are more bull-rush, never-give-up types of pass rushers. I actually think Za'Darius is going to do his best work while working inside, leaving room on the field for a faster edge rusher (ala Burns or Sweat).

 

[Dantés]

I don't understand this desire to draft OTs high. If he's by far the best player, go for it, but olineman is probably the position that's easiest to fill with late round guys (excluding kickers, long snappers, etc.). I personally think an edge rusher should still be something of a priority with the team's first pick. While the team has certainly improved their pass rush they still lack an elite speed guy. The two guys they signed are more bull-rush, never-give-up types of pass rushers. I actually think Za'Darius is going to do his best work while working inside, leaving room on the field for a faster edge rusher (ala Burns or Sweat).

This is absolutely not true. Offensive tackles are difficult to find and very expensive to keep/replace. The top of the market is currently getting around 17M annually.

But I am not advocating for reaching to take a tackle just to take one. But I do really like Jonah Williams and Andre Dillard for this offense and would not view either one as reaches at all.

 

[AmishMafia]

I personally think an edge rusher should still be something of a priority with the team's first pick. While the team has certainly improved their pass rush they still lack an elite speed guy. The two guys they signed are more bull-rush, never-give-up types of pass rushers. I actually think Za'Darius is going to do his best work while working inside, leaving room on the field for a faster edge rusher (ala Burns or Sweat).

Smith and Smith is exactly the players that fit the Pettine scheme. OLBs under Pettine are primary contain. They just set the edge. The pass rush is secondary and ILBs, S, DEs are counted on to provide QB pressure as much as OLBs. I'm not sure Burns would suceed in GB. Sweat would be a great fit though.

 

[Dantés]

Smith and Smith is exactly the players that fit the Pettine scheme. OLBs under Pettine are primary contain. They just set the edge. The pass rush is secondary and ILBs, S, DEs are counted on to provide QB pressure as much as OLBs. I'm not sure Burns would suceed in GB. Sweat would be a great fit though.

Based on what he did in Baltimore, I bet we see Za'Darius doing a lot more interior rushing than edge setting on passing downs.

 

[Sunshinepacker]

This is absolutely not true. Offensive tackles are difficult to find and very expensive to keep/replace. The top of the market is currently getting around 17M annually.

But I am not advocating for reaching to take a tackle just to take one. But I do really like Jonah Williams and Andre Dillard for this offense and would not view either one as reaches at all.

ANY good NFL player is hard to find. However, I can find MORE above average olinemen who were drafted late than I can find above average dlinemen, edge rushers, corners, etc.

 

[Sunshinepacker]

Smith and Smith is exactly the players that fit the Pettine scheme. OLBs under Pettine are primary contain. They just set the edge. The pass rush is secondary and ILBs, S, DEs are counted on to provide QB pressure as much as OLBs. I'm not sure Burns would suceed in GB. Sweat would be a great fit though.

I'm sorry, but having an elite, speed rusher is helpful in ANY defense. As others have pointed out, it's very likely that Za'Darius will be rushing from the inside on passing downs so there's certainly room for a smaller, faster edge rusher to be drafted and used on this defense.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

ANY good NFL player is hard to find. However, I can find MORE above average olinemen who were drafted late than I can find above average dlinemen, edge rushers, corners, etc.

I'm not convinced that to be true. While Packers fans might think that way because Thompson struck gold selecting Bakhtiari in the fourth round most of the best tackles in the league were drafted early.

 

[AmishMafia]

ANY good NFL player is hard to find. However, I can find MORE above average olinemen who were drafted late than I can find above average dlinemen, edge rushers, corners, etc.

Not sure if that is true. I can think of examples supporting and refuting this. We just signed 4 FAs who weren't 1st rounders. 3 non-OL and 1 who was OL. Suspect the numbers may be skewed because there are 5 OL starters and only 2 of most other positions.

I'm sorry, but having an elite, speed rusher is helpful in ANY defense. As others have pointed out, it's very likely that Za'Darius will be rushing from the inside on passing downs so there's certainly room for a smaller, faster edge rusher to be drafted and used on this defense.

I accept your apology.

I would shy away from drafting a 3rd down specialist. My high picks need to be guys who are contributing much more than 15 plays a game. Yes a speed rusher would help, but not our defense as much as others.

Last season, Colts drafted a guard, Quentin Nelson, 6th overall. Casserly said hes was the best OL player to come out in 20 years. Colts OL went from marginal to one of the best. He is the first OG to win rookie of the week. Colt offense and andy luck, had their best output in some time.

An OL can really improve your team and I wouldn't hesitate taking one high. The Packers have a big hole at OG and need at OT.

 

[GleefulGary]

ANY good NFL player is hard to find. However, I can find MORE above average olinemen who were drafted late than I can find above average dlinemen, edge rushers, corners, etc.

With iOL you have a point. With OT's, you do not.

 

[Dantés]

ANY good NFL player is hard to find. However, I can find MORE above average olinemen who were drafted late than I can find above average dlinemen, edge rushers, corners, etc.

Two things.

1) I am not just talking about "olinemen." Centers and guards are not the same as tackles.

2) You most certainly do not find a lot of above average tackles who were drafted late. Here are the top tackles in the league at the moment in terms of average annual salary, and their draft round:

1. Trent Brown, OAK- 7th Rd
2. Taylor Lewan, TEN- 1st Rd
3. Nate Solder, NYG- 1st Rd
4. Jake Matthews, ATL- 1st Rd
5. Donovan Smith, TB- 2nd Rd
6. Trent Williams, WAS- 1st Rd
7. Russell Okung, LAC- 1st Rd
8. Terron Armstead, NO- 3rd Rd
9. Ja'Wuan James, DEN- 1st Rd
10. Tyron Smith, DAL- 1st Rd
11. Eric Fisher, KC- 1st Rd
12. Cordy Glenn, CIN- 1st Rd
13. David Bakhtiari, GB- 4th Rd
14. Riley Reiff, MIN- 1st Rd
15. Duane Brown, SEA- 1st Rd
16. Lane Johnson, PHI- 1st Rd
17. Andrew Whitworth, LAR- 2nd Rd
18. Matt Kalil, CAR- 1st Rd
19. Anthony Castonzo, IND- 1st Rd
20. Ricky Wagner, DET- 2nd Rd
21. Donald Penn, OAK- UDFA
22. Charles Leno, CHI- 7th Rd
23. Rob Havenstein, LAR- 2nd Rd
24. Kelvin Beachum, NYJ- 7th Rd
25. Joe Staley, SF- 1st Rd

So of the 25 players that the league has termed most valuable in terms of salary, you have 5 that were originally found outside of the top 3 rounds. 15 were 1st round picks.

Even if you think about good tackles still on rookie deals, you have Mike McGlinchey (Rd 1), Jack Conklin (Rd 1), Cam Robinson (Rd 1), Ryan Ramczyk (Rd 1), Taylor Moton (Rd 2), Laremy Tunsel (Rd 1), Dion Dawkins (Rd 2), Ronnie Stanley (Rd 1)...

So I would say, evidentially, that no you most certainly do not find more good tackles later in the draft than most other positions. If you need one, and there's a good one on the board, you're best served taking said player early.

 

[Dantés]

Side note on that data:

David Bakhtiari is both a) a bargain and b) a unicorn. Finding great OT play in the middle rounds is almost unheard of. TT gets his fair share of criticism, some with good reason, but man-- that was a fantastic pick.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

Wonder if MLF is wishing the Packers had waited a few days on signing a new RG. Titans just released Josh Kline. Not sure who is better, he or Billy Turner, but Kline is a pretty decent guard, but he wouldn't take a pay cut with the Titans.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

Wonder if MLF is wishing the Packers had waited a few days on signing a new RG. Titans just released Josh Kline. Not sure who is better, he or Billy Turner, but Kline is a pretty decent guard, but he wouldn't take a pay cut with the Titans.

PFF has graded both Turner and Kline pretty similar over their careers.

 

[GleefulGary]

Wonder if MLF is wishing the Packers had waited a few days on signing a new RG. Titans just released Josh Kline. Not sure who is better, he or Billy Turner, but Kline is a pretty decent guard, but he wouldn't take a pay cut with the Titans.

The appeal with Billy Turner is that he can play RT as well. He's a bit more versatile, which is really important for us because Bulaga will probably get hurt again.

I'm not familiar with Kline, but I would assume he can't/hasn't played at RT.