Mike Pettine's Defence

[Pokerbrat2000]

Should Pettine be worried?

I think if the Packers were 3-7, it would be more than likely that Pettine would be fired midseason. Given that they are actually 7-3, I think if Pettine is fired, it will be after the season.

Another factor is "who replaces him?" Guessing most of the guys that you would consider replacing him with, are currently employed with an NFL or NCAA team.

 

[Dantés]

I think if the Packers were 3-7, it would be more than likely that Pettine would be fired midseason. Given that they are actually 7-3, I think if Pettine is fired, it will be after the season.

Another factor is "who replaces him?" Guessing most of the guys that you would consider replacing him with, are currently employed with an NFL or NCAA team.

If they fired him mid season, then Jerry Gray would almost certainly be the guy to take over. He’s been a DC before.

 

[Sunshinepacker]

I would like to see it and I would like to see LaFleur pick his own man.

How many DCs do fans go through before they can start looking at personnel issues? Only asking because it might be important.

 

[gopkrs]

How many DCs do fans go through before they can start looking at personnel issues? Only asking because it might be important.

Yes but Pettine has his outdated 3 man rush (only changed that because he was told to). He has the corners play back when we need stops (seems to have changed that a little bit (I can only hope) but again probably told to). Ridiculously puts Preston in positions to fail. And his natural inclination is to give up easy first downs. His blitzes lack imagination imho. Capers had good games also and it only led to keeping him around.

 

[GleefulGary]

The contrast between the offense and defense is striking, and I’m not talking about production.

The offense is crisp, you rarely see mistakes. It’s a well oiled machine. The defense, well, I guess the simplest way of saying it is that they lack fundamentals. Missed assignments, poor technique, missed tackles, chicken wing attempts instead of wrapping up.

I can’t imagine LaFleur doesn’t see it. I can’t imagine he doesn’t know what would happen if he has to play that defense on a Sunday game. Unless something drastic happens, this is Pettine’s last year.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

Capers had good games also and it only led to keeping him around.

Agreed. I keep going back to this and don't want to see a repeat. While the defense looked "ok" last night, lets not forget the offense that they were going up against. They won't have that benefit in the playoffs, nor against most of the teams they face in the next 5 weeks.

Let's also not forget that TT and Gute have spent a lot of draft resources on the defense. Could the Packer use a few better players on defense? Sure, they could. However, since we aren't seeing much "coached progress", from players drafted outside of the first round, I would prefer finding a defensive coaching staff that can actually coach-up some guys and not have to keep throwing high picks at them to work with.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

How many DCs do fans go through before they can start looking at personnel issues? Only asking because it might be important.

If you look at the Players that Pettine and his staff have been given to work with, they really have not done much in the way of "coaching up" IMO.

The Packers top defensive players were either first round picks or Free agent signings.

 

[Dantés]

I still doubt Pettine gets fired in-season, but I would guess that he doesn't come back next year. With that in mind, I want to start spot-lighting some DC candidates.

One interesting guy is the 49ers' DL Coach, Kris Kocurek.

Kocurek was a DT at Texas Tech, drafted by the Seahawks in 2001 in the 7th round. He kicked around the league a couple of seasons before returning to TTU as a graduate assistant coach in 2003.

He was a small school DL coach for Texas AM Commerce (2006), West Texas AM (2007), and Stephen F. Austin (2008), before joining the Lions as an Assistant DL coach in 2009.

He took over the lead DL Coach job in Detroit in 2010, and remained in that role through 2017. During that time span, the Lions' DL accounted for 250 sacks (31/season), which was the 4th most of any DL in the league over that span.

He then spent the 2018 season as the DL coach for the Dolphins.

In 2019, he joined the 49ers in the same capacity.

Seems to me there is a trend with him of getting the most out of his players. For instance, Ziggy Ansah had 44 sacks for Kocurek in five seasons, and then 6.5 in three seasons since. Arik Armstead had 9 sacks in his first four seasons, and then 10 in his first season under Kocurek. He got 6.5 sacks out of Anthony Zettel in 2017, who has done literally nothing otherwise. He also coached Kerry Hyder to an 8 sack season.

I have no idea if he has the aptitude to be a DC, as being a good teacher at a given position doesn't mean you have the skills to coordinate an entire unit. But he's done a really good job in his role everywhere he's been, and he's worked under some pretty accomplished DC's (Jim Schwartz, Teryl Austin, Robert Saleh).

 

[Mavster]

I'm so desperate I'd be pleased with any young guy who loves the X's and O's. Avoid the retreads

 

[rmontro]

Seems to me there is a trend with him of getting the most out of his players.

Well, we could certainly use that.

 

[Dantés]

Another candidate...

Teryl Austin, Senior Defensive Assistant and Secondary Coach, Steelers.

From '91 to '02, Austin was a defensive assistant and a DB's coach for various college programs (Penn State, Wake Forest, Syracuse, Michigan).

His first stints in the NFL were both in the role of DB's coach, with the Seahawks from '03 to '06, and with the Cardinals from '07 to '09.

He had his first run as a DC in 2010 for the Florida Gators, but only lasted one season, as Urban Meyer resigned after that season.

He served as the defensive backs coach for the Ravens from 2011 to 2013, and became the defensive coordinator for the Lions from 2014 to 2017, and then for the Bengals in 2018.

For the last two years, he's been with the Steelers, who have been a fantastic defense this season.

So Austin has had a ton of success virtually everywhere he's been as a DB's coach, and he has experience as a coordinator. However, his actual work as a DC has been a little uneven-- he had some good years and some down years for the Lions, things in Cincinnati ended poorly. But he has proven that he's capable of coordinating a great unit (see 2014 Lions). So he's at least interesting.

 

[gopkrs]

Another candidate...

Teryl Austin, Senior Defensive Assistant and Secondary Coach, Steelers.

From '91 to '02, Austin was a defensive assistant and a DB's coach for various college programs (Penn State, Wake Forest, Syracuse, Michigan).

His first stints in the NFL were both in the role of DB's coach, with the Seahawks from '03 to '06, and with the Cardinals from '07 to '09.

He had his first run as a DC in 2010 for the Florida Gators, but only lasted one season, as Urban Meyer resigned after that season.

He served as the defensive backs coach for the Ravens from 2011 to 2013, and became the defensive coordinator for the Lions from 2014 to 2017, and then for the Bengals in 2018.

For the last two years, he's been with the Steelers, who have been a fantastic defense this season.

So Austin has had a ton of success virtually everywhere he's been as a DB's coach, and he has experience as a coordinator. However, his actual work as a DC has been a little uneven-- he had some good years and some down years for the Lions, things in Cincinnati ended poorly. But he has proven that he's capable of coordinating a great unit (see 2014 Lions). So he's at least interesting.

Don't know these people but I like your ideas.

 

[gbgary]

that big run on the opening chi drive (heck maybe it was the first play of the game...i don't remember) was the last straw for me. the way the DL set up. huge gap (the size of a truck), no one in the middle. went for fifty something i think. ugh. hell...i could have run for 3 or 4 yards on that play. smh

 

[Dantés]

Another candidate...

Teryl Austin, Senior Defensive Assistant and Secondary Coach, Steelers.

From '91 to '02, Austin was a defensive assistant and a DB's coach for various college programs (Penn State, Wake Forest, Syracuse, Michigan).

His first stints in the NFL were both in the role of DB's coach, with the Seahawks from '03 to '06, and with the Cardinals from '07 to '09.

He had his first run as a DC in 2010 for the Florida Gators, but only lasted one season, as Urban Meyer resigned after that season.

He served as the defensive backs coach for the Ravens from 2011 to 2013, and became the defensive coordinator for the Lions from 2014 to 2017, and then for the Bengals in 2018.

For the last two years, he's been with the Steelers, who have been a fantastic defense this season.

So Austin has had a ton of success virtually everywhere he's been as a DB's coach, and he has experience as a coordinator. However, his actual work as a DC has been a little uneven-- he had some good years and some down years for the Lions, things in Cincinnati ended poorly. But he has proven that he's capable of coordinating a great unit (see 2014 Lions). So he's at least interesting.

Just throwing out names.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

Patricia was just fired. McCarthy was also fired mid-season.

Journalists say two is a coincidence, three is a trend.

Have there been others mid-season? Is this becoming more common?

Should Pettine be worried?

Just this season there have been three head coaches fired by their teams in O'Brien, Quinn and Patricia.

And his natural inclination is to give up easy first downs.

While it's justified to criticize Pettine for the defense's performance this season he's definitely not inclined to give up first downs.

Gowever, his actual work as a DC has been a little uneven-- he had some good years and some down years for the Lions, things in Cincinnati ended poorly. But he has proven that he's capable of coordinating a great unit (see 2014 Lions). So he's at least interesting.

It's interesting to note that the 2014 season was the only time the Lions have finished better than 10th in points allowed since 1983.

As you correctly mentioned Austin wasn't that successful as a defensive coordinator after that season anymore though.

 

[Dantés]

Just this season there have been three head coaches fired by their teams in O'Brien, Quinn and Patricia.



While it's justified to criticize Pettine for the defense's performance this season he's definitely not inclined to give up first downs.



It's interesting to note that the 2014 season was the only time the Lions have finished better than 10th in points allowed since 1983.

As you correctly mentioned Austin wasn't that successful as a defensive coordinator after that season anymore though.

Their scoring defense dropped into the 20's after that, then up to 12th in 2016, and then back down into the 20's in his last year.

So it was pretty up and down. But IIRC, he was considered a HC candidate at one point and may have gotten some interviews.

 

[Dantés]

Next name up-- Chris Hewitt, Pass Defense Coordinator, Baltimore Ravens.

Hewitt played DB for Cincinnati and was a UDFA for the Saints in 1997. He hung around for three years before moving on.

There's a gap in his history as far as I can find, but he turned up in 2003 as a strength and conditioning coach with Notre Dame.

In 2004, he came on Greg Schiano's staff at Rutgers as a Graduate Assistant. From '05 to '07, he held a position there called the Director of Skill and Speed Development. From '08 to '09, he was their DB's coach. Finally, from '10 to '11, he was their RB's coach.

Once Schiano moved on to the head coaching job with the Bucs, Hewitt caught on with the Ravens who had become familiar with him through a minority coaching fellowship. In 2012-13, he was an Assistant ST coach; in 2014 he became the Assistant DB's coach; in 2015-16 he became the Senior DB's coach; from 2017 to present, he's been the secondary coach, or "Pass Defense Coordinator."

He's untested as a DC, but I like how quickly he's progressed on one of the best staffs in the country, within one of the league's best franchises. He's served under some really good defensive coordinators in Dean Pees and Wink Martindale as well.

I don't know exactly what the change is, but I assume that he has some higher level of responsibility in game planning as the "pass defense coordinator" as opposed to just being a defensive backs coach. So perhaps that experience is preparing him to be "the guy."

The Ravens' pass defense this year has been excellent. They are 4th in Net Yards per Attempt allowed this season (5.6). By comparison, the Packers are at 6.5. And he does not necessarily have ideal talent to work with either. His cornerbacks are good, but he's been getting a lot out of starting safeties Clark and Elliott, both 6th rounds guys from 2017 and 2018 respectively.

 

[El Guapo]

Is it a coincidence that Dantes (Inferno) was the person to post the 666th reply in the Fire Mike Pettine thread?

You must be logged in to see this image or video!

 

[Dantés]

Is it a coincidence that Dantes (Inferno) was the person to post the 666th reply in the Fire Mike Pettine thread?

You must be logged in to see this image or video!

What level are we going to banish Pettine to?

We could go Circle VIII, Bolge VIII where the False Counselors are consigned to burn eternally in a tongue of flame.

 

[gopkrs]

While it's justified to criticize Pettine for the defense's performance this season he's definitely not inclined to give up first downs.

I'm not so sure. Seems like he plays so soft that a first down is a cinch. And that keeps the clock running (in his mind possibly).

 

[Deleted member 6794]

So it was pretty up and down. But IIRC, he was considered a HC candidate at one point and may have gotten some interviews.

True, Austin was interviewed for several head coaching jobs, even with the Lions before they hired Patricia.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

I'm not so sure. Seems like he plays so soft that a first down is a cinch. And that keeps the clock running (in his mind possibly).

It might be true that Pettine doesn't have an issue with giving up first downs once the Packers play prevent defense but I guarantee he doesn't want to give up any early in a game.

 

[gopkrs]

It might be true that Pettine doesn't have an issue with giving up first downs once the Packers play prevent defense but I guarantee he doesn't want to give up any early in a game.

Was talking during prevent. But plays too soft at times during the game too. Maybe that is changing.

 

[Dantés]

Over time, the common theme that emerges to me is that players do not play particularly hard, smart, or fundamentally sound for Pettine.

That could partly be a personnel issue as well as a problem of coaching, but at the end of the day if they don't play for him, it's not going to work.

 

[Dantés]

Some names to monitor in case they or their head coaches get fired:

1. Vic Fangio (Denver): Do whatever it takes for this guy if he becomes available.
2. Jim Schwartz (PHI): Experienced and has had some good years in Philly (with some mediocre ones too).
   
3. Gus Bradley (LAC): First couple years with the Chargers were impressive; less so lately, but lots of injuries.
4. Chuck Pagano (CHI): Successful track record as a DC.

For comparison, here are the points allowed per drive of Pettine's defenses since he's been in Green Bay.

Pettine:

2015: 31st, 2.26 (CLE)
2016: N/A
2017: N/A
2018: 23rd, 2.15 (GB)
2019: 11th, 1.79
2020: 18th, 2.35

Vangio:

2015: 24th, 2.01 (CHI)
2016: 26th, 2.18
2017: 9th, 1.67
2018: 1st, 1.46
2019: 7th, 1.74 (DEN)
2020: 13th, 2.14

Schwartz:

2015: N/A
2016: 10th, 1.77 (PHI)
2017: 3rd, 1.47
2018: 18th, 1.98
2019: 13th, 1.86
2020: 9th, 1.97

Bradley:

2015: 26th, 2.05 (JAC)
2016: 19th, 1.95
2017: 4th, 1.48 (LAC)
2018: 9th, 1.82
2019: 17th, 1.99
2020: 19th, 2.37

Pagano:

2015: 20th, 1.98 (IND)
2016: 25th, 2.13
2017: 28th, 2.06
2018: N/A
2019: 6th, 1.66 (CHI)
2020: 5th, 1.87

So Pettine's high water mark has been basically at league average (I know 11th is above average, rank wise, but 1.80 ppd is typically right in the middle in normal years).

I believe Vangio is a great DC, but these data suggest that personnel was the biggest factor in Chicago. His defenses were not great until they upgraded, and since he left Pagano has found similar success.

Pagano himself did little to celebrate in Indianapolis, but I've always pointed the finger at mainly at Grigson there over that tenure. If you go back and look at his drafts and what he was giving Pagano to work with, especially on defense, it is laughable.

Bradley's peak is much better than Pettine's, but it's concerning that he's gotten progressively worse every season.

Schwartz would be more interesting to me than anyone on this list. His defense in his one year in Buffalo (2014) allowed 1.37 ppd, which was 1st overall that year (1.68 in the year before he arrived and 1.81 in the year after he left).