Khryi Thornton Thread

[Carl]

Seems like there's a very good chance we could have picked up both Thornton and Rodgers tomorrow.

We're certainly not hearing the kind of superlatives from our coaching staff that make me think missing on either of these prospects would have been devastating. I hate the value on both these picks.

There is no one universal board. We'll find out whose board was better when these guys start playing.

 

[AmishMafia]

I'm sure the texans jumped us knowing we'd have taken him.

They must think this guy can play the nose, right? He's exactly the same size as Worthy, who evidently they don't think can play nose. I thought we'd add one dlineman in the draft and it'd be a nose, so I'm curious to see what happens with this guy.

I was opposed to taking Nix, fat with a questionable work ethic. Couple that with a 'taste for the good life' and you have a strong recipe for failure. Funny thing is, dropping as far as he did, may actually be good for him and wake him up to the idea that he is going to have to work his butt off if he wants to hit a real big payday.

Truth be told, I thought he should be a 4th rounder. But the big guys often go sooner than they should. Mid 3rd seemed right to me. If we could have gotten him in the 4th, he would be worth a shot at that point.

I will go on the record, Nix will do good in year 3, sign an extension, and will become average. Thornton will have a longer and much better career for the Packers.

I like Thornton. By virtue of the fact that his team really sucked, yet he still busted his butt and stood out, says something about his character and desire. Also, opposing teams were probably able to commit more blockers to him based on the lack of talent on the defense, makes his college play even more impressive. I am excited about what he brings to the table.

 

[gonzozab]

You can make all the sarcastic comments you want, but the fact is TT reached for his two third round picks, a 5th round talent DT with character issues and a developmental tight end. TT wants to be the smartest guy in the room with these reaches and say I told you so at the end of the day, but look back on his draft history and he deserves to be second guessed. Did you see his product on the field last year without Rodgers? They're easily a bottom ten team in the NFL. Don't give me the "there were other injuries" excuse either. They won a Super Bowl with a plethora of injuries in 2010. The difference is none of those injured players was Rodgers.

 

[adambr2]

I'm not sure why we are debating if Thornton will make the roster. He's a lock. 3rd round picks getting cut in their rookie training camp is extremely rare. I'm sure it has never happened in the TT era.

If TT truly believed he was BPA, then he's a lock as a 3rd rounder. At least in his rookie year.

 

[AmishMafia]

You can make all the sarcastic comments you want, but the fact is TT reached for his two third round picks, a 5th round talent DT with character issues and a developmental tight end. TT wants to be the smartest guy in the room with these reaches and say I told you so at the end of the day, but look back on his draft history and he deserves to be second guessed. Did you see his product on the field last year without Rodgers? They're easily a bottom ten team in the NFL. Don't give me the "there were other injuries" excuse either. They won a Super Bowl with a plethora of injuries in 2010. The difference is none of those injured players was Rodgers.

Ahhhhh, the 'TT big ego theory'. Had not heard that one in some time.

According to this theory, TT drafts players he knows aren't very good so that he looks like he is smart. I never quite understood it, but hey, we all get to believe what we want to believe.

 

[adambr2]

John Clayton thought we have had one of the best drafts so far and thought the Richard Rodgers pick was fantastic. I realize he's not the only authority on the NFL, but he knows a whole heck of a lot more than most of us do.

While I am skeptical of our day 2 picks, I think we should give it time to see how it pans out. I don't understand the "I've never heard of this guy, so awful pick!!"

If you don't know who the guy is, you obviously don't 'know anything whatsoever about him. So how do you know it's an awful pick?

 

[jaybadger82]

There is no one universal board. We'll find out whose board was better when these guys start playing.

That's not the basis for determining whether we maximized competitive advantage. It's a question of market availability and opportunity cost (i.e., draft position). When teams reach for prospects that would have probably been available later, they're giving up marginal value. It's economics, Carl.

My point is that there's a good chance the Packers could have a secured Thornton and the next prospect on their board by waiting on Thornton because he probably would have been there later. Is it possible that someone might have scooped him up before we came back around? -Sure but holding out for that extra value usually results in a better, deeper pool of prospects on your board. It behooves teams to have some awareness of how their favorite prospects are looked at by other teams.

 

[Carl]

That's not the basis for determining whether we maximized competitive advantage. It's a question of market availability and opportunity cost (i.e., draft position). When teams reach for prospects that would have probably been available later, they're giving up marginal value. It's economics, Carl.

My point is that there's a good chance the Packers could have a secured Thornton and the next prospect down on their board by waiting on Thornton. Is it possible that someone might have scooped him up before we came back around? -Sure but holding out for that extra value usually results in a better, deeper pool of prospects.

What sources are you using to determine he would have been gone? If TT thinks he would have been gone by the next pick and he's at the top of his board, he's got to pick him. Also, passing on guys at the top of board for guys lower down results in less talent picked.

 

[jaybadger82]

The fact that Khyri himself expressed surprise at going so early is pretty good indicator that there wasn't much interest in him at that point in the draft. Conversely, where are your sources indicating Thornton wouldn't have lasted to #98?

It's the draft. Nobody has perfect information. Nothing is certain. But there are smart gambles and if you make enough good bets, you'll walk away a winner. Thornton at #85 overall was a dumb bet and that point applies regardless of how he performs given the economic considerations described above. We can agree to disagree.

 

[Carl]

The fact that Khyri himself expressed surprise at going so early is pretty good indicator that there wasn't much interest in him at that point in the draft. Conversely, where are your sources indicating Thornton wouldn't have lasted to #98?

It's the draft. Nobody has perfect information. Nothing is certain. But there are smart gambles and if you make enough good bets, you'll walk away a winner. Thornton at #85 overall was a dumb bet and that point applies regardless of how he performs given the economic considerations described above. We can agree to disagree.

So your best source is the player's surprise?

I don't have any sources as I'm not saying he would or wouldn't have lasted. I'm just saying we don't know for sure where he would have gone. TT knows a lot more than us. To call him a for sure reach without all the information TT has is illogical.

I know some people here don't like Vic from Packers.com, but he sums up perfectly what I've been saying on here so I'll use it.

"How do we know those players wouldn’t have been picked by other teams a few picks later? There is no uni-board, nor do teams reveal their boards to each other. The selections ofKhyri Thornton

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and Richard Rodgers cause me to reflect on two first-round picks in drafts I covered: Aaron Jones and Tyson Alualu. Both were viewed as reaches, but what we didn’t know was that in scouting those players the teams that selected them came to discover that a couple of other teams had also gotten hot on the trail of those players. The belief was that it was take them or see someone else take them a pick or two later. That’s information fans and media don’t possess, and draftniks are media. The draft is all about opinion and rushing to judgment, but the performances of the players provide the final grade. If Thornton and Rodgers play well, they will have been good picks. We know the flip side."

 

[jaybadger82]

So your best source is the player's surprise?

Hey, at least I've offered a fact supporting the preposition that Thornton probably would have been available later.

You've given us nothing except a Vic Ketchman quote that sidesteps the issue of value in order to talk performance. Performance alone does not equal peak efficiency and that's an analytic you seem content to overlook.

 

[Carl]

Hey, at least I've offered a fact supporting the preposition that Thornton would have been available later.

You've given us nothing except a Vic Ketchman quote that sidesteps the issue of value in order to talk performance. Performance alone is not the same as efficiency and that's an analytic you seem content to overlook.

For the third time, I'm not saying he would or wouldn't have been available later.

I'm saying we don't know and TT has much more information to determine that when we do.

If these guys perform well, they'll be worth their picks


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[Dylan Hoppe]

If TT sees something in the guy that warrants an early selection, good chance other GMs did too. there's a reason these guys on 'NFL' official website aren't GMs.


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[Carl]

If TT sees something in the guy that warrants an early selection, good chance other GMs did too. there's a reason these guys on 'NFL' official website aren't GMs.


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Plus, the guys on websites don't take team fit into grading and don't have the inside information GMs could get.


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[TJV]

There certainly is a point about opportunity cost to be made. Of course if a team knows it can get the same player at a later pick, it would be crazy to pick that player earlier. A counter balance to that point is the way NFL scouting has evolved. IMO there are very, very few players who "slip under the radar". Even players from small schools are well-known among scouting services and NFL teams. So when Thompson, or any other GM, makes a pick that appears to be a reach it may not be because teams picking after the pick in question and before the team's next pick may be interested in that player. They most certainly will know about that player.

I understand when the consensus of "experts" has a player ranked at 20th at his position and the Packers make him the 10th player picked at his position, fans get upset. And I'm certainly not saying reaches don't happen. What I am saying is we as fans should keep in mind generally we just don't know enough to accurately identify them. And there is no way of proving a pick was a reach because it would require a lot of GMs to declare their intentions while hooked up to a lie detector.

One thing is certain: Early first rounders can bust and incredible gems can be found at the end of the draft. That should provide at least a bit of humility to GMs, "experts", and particularly to fans who just don't have the information the first two groups do.

 

[easyk83]

Ahhhhh, the 'TT big ego theory'. Had not heard that one in some time.

According to this theory, TT drafts players he knows aren't very good so that he looks like he is smart. I never quite understood it, but hey, we all get to believe what we want to believe.

Yeah like when he traded pack from the top of the second round and took a Greg Jennings, a 3-4 rounder on like all the mock drafts, when he could have taken better players earlier in the round like Chad Jackson. That TT, what a putz, wish the fans ran the draft.

 

[Einstein McFly]

You can make all the sarcastic comments you want, but the fact is TT reached for his two third round picks, a 5th round talent DT with character issues and a developmental tight end. TT wants to be the smartest guy in the room with these reaches and say I told you so at the end of the day, but look back on his draft history and he deserves to be second guessed. Did you see his product on the field last year without Rodgers? They're easily a bottom ten team in the NFL. Don't give me the "there were other injuries" excuse either. They won a Super Bowl with a plethora of injuries in 2010. The difference is none of those injured players was Rodgers.

The reason we looked lousy last year without Rodgers is because we didn't have a good backup QB, not because the roster was weak overall. If we'd have had an average guy we'd have been a lot better off. They gambled wrong on Coleman and Harrell, both TT and MM, but that doesn't mean anything else about the roster as a whole.

Don't be one of those clowns that tries to judge a draft before three years. I doubt any of the draft geniuses on this board had heard of David Bahktiari, Josh Sitton, Donald Driver, Jordy Nelson etc etc before they were drafted and turned into great players. Everyone had heard of Tony Mandrich and no one had heard of Scott Wells, so "Hey, I recognize that name DERP! He must be a good pick DERP!" doesn't seem like much of a draft mantra.

 

[Einstein McFly]

Yeah like when he traded pack from the top of the second round and took a Greg Jennings, a 3-4 rounder on like all the mock drafts, when he could have taken better players earlier in the round like Chad Jackson. That TT, what a putz, wish the fans ran the draft.

100% THIS.

 

[AmishMafia]

.

The fact that Khyri himself expressed surprise at going so early is pretty good indicator that there wasn't much interest in him at that point in the draft. Conversely, where are your sources indicating Thornton wouldn't have lasted to #98?

It's the draft. Nobody has perfect information. Nothing is certain. But there are smart gambles and if you make enough good bets, you'll walk away a winner. Thornton at #85 overall was a dumb bet and that point applies regardless of how he performs given the economic considerations described above. We can agree to disagree.

If you read his quote, he also says that he told his agent he didn't want to know. So for whatever reason, he voluntarily stayed out of the loop because he wanted to be surprised.

I recall that when Nick Collins was drafted in the 2nd round, it was seen by fans as a huge reach. Afterall, Kiper and others pegged him as a FA and not even worthy of drafting. It was only a month or two later that Ozzy Newsome mentioned their surprise that the Packers took him and that they actually considered him late in the first. The Ravens missed out on a probowler because they thought they could get him later.

There is no telling where Khyri would have been drafted if the Packers did not take him. But I do know two things with near certainty:
1. If TT thought he was not worth the pick, he would not have taken him.
2. If TT knew that he could get him later in the draft, he would not have taken him where he did.

 

[ThePerfectBeard]

Why all this arguing? Seriously, there's one word that will put all this behind us...

"POOP"

Sorry, it's immature, but that word makes me laugh.

Settled?

 

[jaybadger82]

.If you read his quote, he also says that he told his agent he didn't want to know. So for whatever reason, he voluntarily stayed out of the loop because he wanted to be surprised.

I didn't read that quote. I was citing what I heard during Thornton's phone interview, shortly after he had been drafted. The way I recall, he expressed a bit of surprise at how early he went in response to a reporter's question about being a third round pick. He might have been in the dark during the draft but I have a difficult time believing his agent didn't at least provide some idea of the range in which he could expect to go.

I recall that when Nick Collins was drafted in the 2nd round, it was seen by fans as a huge reach. Afterall, Kiper and others pegged him as a FA and not even worthy of drafting. It was only a month or two later that Ozzy Newsome mentioned their surprise that the Packers took him and that they actually considered him late in the first. The Ravens missed out on a probowler because they thought they could get him later.

I've never heard that Collins anecdote before and it shows the danger that comes with waiting on a guy. (Do you have a link to the story?) -I never said there wasn't risk in such an approach.

But if you think about it, there are plenty of success stories in terms of teams waiting on a prospect in order to obtain better value too. It was thought the Browns would use their 4th overall selection on Manziel. Instead they traded back to the 9th selection (picking up Buffalo's 2015 first and fourth round picks), then opted to use that pick on a CB. They waited another 12 picks before they traded up for their QB. That's a tremendous gain in value.

Just last year, our Packers bypassed drafting Eddie Lacy multiple times in order to obtain other prospects or additional picks. At the time it almost seemed like Ted was avoiding Lacy. He was just maxing value. That worked out well for us.

Whatever the case, I don't want to argue about this ad nauseum. You all know my opinion about the value of taking Thornton at #85 and I won't belabor the point further.

Thornton is a Packer now and I hope he becomes a valuable contributor. Wishing him the best going forward.

 

[AmishMafia]

Well, this last part is where the error lies IMO. Just because you're hungry for a Big Mac doesn't mean you should pay $50 for the opportunity. Ignoring market value leads to economic inefficiency (i.e., spending more than you needed on a $3 sandwich). These are Econ. 101 concepts.

Whatever the case, I don't want to argue about this ad nauseum. You all know my opinion about the value of taking Thornton at #85 and I won't belabor the point further.

Thornton is a Packer now and I hope he becomes a valuable contributor.

I had a typo. I corrected it. If TT knows he can get a player later, he will trade back or use the pick on someone else. Only common sense.

The economic theory falls short and omits two features of the draft. Scarcity and time. To adjust the metaphor, add the fact that there exists only 1 Big Mac and there are 31 other hungry dudes standing around. If you don't pay the $50 now, there is a chance you will not be able to buy it for even $45 in an hour or two. And all your money will be spent at the end of the day as it becomes worthless.


Thats weird, I am suddenly hungry again.

 

[PikeBadger]

On a serious note fans really don't get how much more in depth the team/front office analysis is of players as opposed to what you see in the media. With teams that have been successful its generally a good idea to give said team's front office the benefit of the doubt.

But that would render the nattering nabobs of negativism, mute. What would they do with their keyboards then?

 

[jaybadger82]

I had a typo. I corrected it. If TT knows he can get a player later, he will trade back or use the pick on someone else. Only common sense.

The economic theory falls short and omits two features of the draft. Scarcity and time. To adjust the metaphor, add the fact that there exists only 1 Big Mac and there are 31 other hungry dudes standing around. If you don't pay the $50 now, there is a chance you will not be able to buy it for even $45 in an hour or two. And all your money will be spent at the end of the day as it becomes worthless.


Thats weird, I am suddenly hungry again.

This makes me hungry too. -I'll edit my previous post to correspond with your changes.

I guess we just differ a little on Thornton in terms of being the only "Big Mac" at that point in the draft who could give us a boost at DE (i.e., scarcity). Bon appetit / Cheers.

 

[FrankRizzo]

I think of this guy as Worthy's competition for a roster spot.

Agree with you..... I think Worthy is done. A bust is a bust. Guy has not shown anything, and I came on board with that pick originally as I remembered him doing well against the Baidgers one game.

This guy could be what we hoped Je'Rel would be.