My guess is, JK-47 statistically single footed prevents 3 points per game over the average.
I would not question that Scott is worth that 5th. round pick if he keeps doing what he's doing. However, 3 points is probably too generous when comparing the 2019 version of Scott to the guy he replaced:
2017/Vogel:
71 punts/44.4 gross/41.6 net
29 returned, 40.8%, 5.7 yds per return
19 inside the 20, 26.8%
2 touchbacks, 2.8%
4.4 punts per game / 39.3% offense 3rd. down conversion rate
2019/Scott:
29 punts/48.3 gross/44.1 net
12 returned, 41.3%, 6.8 yds per return
12 inside the 20, 41.4%
2 touchbacks, 6.9%
5.8 punts per game / 30.5% offense 3rd. down conversion rate
If Vogel were kicking 5.8 times per game as Scott has done this season in the way he did in 2017, the statistical difference between the two kickers is 22.6 yards gross and 14.5 yards net per game. It's hard to argue that's worth 3 points on it's face.
If you did something crude like take the Packers 1,772 yards passing and rushing this season, with kick return yards relative to a 25 yard line start being negligible, punt return yards also negligible, and 153 yards of offsetting offensive penalties, you get 1619 "advancement" yards against 119 points scored. That's 13.6 yards to one point. On that crude basis, we could say the Vogel/Scott difference in net is worth 1.1 points per game on 5.8 punts per game.
You can crunch all the numbers you want and you'll never get a definitive answer. To me, that 1.1 points smells about right and that is a meaningful number.
If somebody could do the impossible and come up with a persuasive formula for "points over average replacement" akin to the various MLB "wins over replacement" black box formulas, my sense is you'd find +3 points over average replacement to be a very tough get for the vast majority of position players and probably no punters.
What sticks in my mind is the clutch 63 yard punt with 1:33 left in the Bears game. That came after a run, an incompletion and then a run on 3rd. and 5 in burning some clock on a 3-and-out. Even with Cohen's 14 yard return, the net was 49 yards, with the return perhaps assisted by a holding penalty that was enforced. This was huge, moving the ball from the GB 27 to the CHI 14. Flipping the field in this way may have been the difference between the win and overtime. It certainly made CHI's job a lot harder given the possible alternatives.
The 58 yarder with 3:45 left in the Dallas game, while not quite as significant, was also clutch.
Vogel was not some weak leg. In 13 of 16 games he had a long kick of 50+, 9 games with a 55+ punt. I don't know what Scott did in the offseason to get where he is now but the eye test clearly says Scott has the bigger leg with generous hang time, a valuable weapon when you really need it, as in that Bears game, at the end of halfs and with a lead at the end of close games.
In situations where Scott has enough field to give it all he's got, say inside the Packer 35, according to the ESPN play-by-plays his gross punts have been:
CHI: 53, 42, 63, 50, 63
MIN: 43, 44, 47, 59, 48
DEN: 50, 66
PHI: 52
DAL: 48, 57, 45, 41, 58
That's a 51.6 yard average on those air-it-out kicks. I don't think that number is dramatically above average, but what we do see is consistency (no killer shanks) with some above average distance.
, yeah, JK Scott is a great punter so far. Tough to compare all of his stats to Vogel because one could also argue that the ST players around him were playing at the best that I've seen in years. Our coverage of punts was near fantastic that season. Coverage has looks better than average this season but we have had a few woes.
