WR1....what does that HAVE to mean or what MIGHT it mean for 2022?

[Heyjoe4]

I agree. Theres another aspect that an opportunistic or stingy Defense can provide. That’s our O taking more 4th down and short tries once you cross the 50 (but on the edge of FG) or going for it on 4th n Goal from <3 yards to go.

Obviously it depends on the opponent and the flow of the game (who’s winning in the trenches etc.) This is where having a 247lb RB who runs a 4.5 is key.

Also, even if you get stopped at the 1 yard line. It changes the plays our opponent can run. Suddenly we have a DL and LB group that can keep teams at 2 and 9 or 3rd and 6 type distance. Often getting them punting from inside the the 20 and starting near midfield again.

That was why I was so surprised in the 2020 Tampa game. We had 1st and Goal from the 8 and Dillon was averaging 6 per. You’ve got 4 tries if you just get inside the 2-3 yard line and worse case you leave them on your 1 yard line. That’s essentially 3 tries to get 5-6 yards and you can mix it with pass and run. We sometimes underutilize our RB’s imo

Those are very good points. The O can gamble more on 4th down at the 50 or past it and count on the D to get the ball back. As you say, not every 4th down, but depending on the opponent, score, keeping momentum going, etc.

Same at the goal line. Go for it on 4th and short and worst case, pin the opponent and get the ball back.

Now we need our D to live up to their press. What I'l looking for in particular is for the ILB group to stop the run. Get the opponent into a lot of down and distance situations making a pass the only choice, then count on that great secondary, and drop Campbell or Walker into short coverage if needed. I love it.

These are good examples of how a great or elite D helps win games. They don't get much press for this, but it matters nonetheless.

 

[OldSchool101]

Those are very good points. The O can gamble more on 4th down at the 50 or past it and count on the D to get the ball back. As you say, not every 4th down, but depending on the opponent, score, keeping momentum going, etc.

Same at the goal line. Go for it on 4th and short and worst case, pin the opponent and get the ball back.

Now we need our D to live up to their press. What I'l looking for in particular is for the ILB group to stop the run. Get the opponent into a lot of down and distance situations making a pass the only choice, then count on that great secondary, and drop Campbell or Walker into short coverage if needed. I love it.

These are good examples of how a great or elite D helps win games. They don't get much press for this, but it matters nonetheless.

We can function without a true
#1WR. We can achieve TWO #2 WR’s roles to remain formidable.
A pair of top and bottom 2’s around 900+ and 700+ Receiving yards
Verses a single 1400+ single WR??

That isn’t going feel too drastically different imo. Much will depend on if our #3 can reel in some slack

Now having a 18.5pts/game allowed Defense that is also considered “opportunistic” vs 21.5/GM pts allowed is night and day.

 

[Poppa San]

the runs longer

This does not happen if you

keep the passes shorter

The DBs just cheat up towards the line. For longer runs you typically want a more downfield attack. Or just manhandle the DL.

 

[Heyjoe4]

This does not happen if you

The DBs just cheat up towards the line. For longer runs you typically want a more downfield attack. Or just manhandle the DL.

Yeah that's true. They'll have to establish some kind of deep game for the RPO to work, and the longer runs will come off the RPOs if the CBs are honoring the pass.

I just expect to see longer drives with shorter passes and more runs. That's not that different from how they've operated under LeFleur anyway. What we don't know now with MVS gone, who will be the legitimate deep threat that keeps the secondary from cheating close to the LOS? I don't care who it is, as long as there is one. Signs point to Watson because of his speed, but ti could be someone else.

 

[jetfixer]

Julio to the Bucs

 

[Sunshinepacker]

Yeah that's true. They'll have to establish some kind of deep game for the RPO to work, and the longer runs will come off the RPOs if the CBs are honoring the pass.

I just expect to see longer drives with shorter passes and more runs. That's not that different from how they've operated under LeFleur anyway. What we don't know now with MVS gone, who will be the legitimate deep threat that keeps the secondary from cheating close to the LOS? I don't care who it is, as long as there is one. Signs point to Watson because of his speed, but ti could be someone else.

Pretty sure it'll be Watson based on his measurables and limited route tree.

 

[Sunshinepacker]

This does not happen if you

The DBs just cheat up towards the line. For longer runs you typically want a more downfield attack. Or just manhandle the DL.

I remember reading an article that pointed out that long runs were typically made because their were no defenders playing deep; i.e., when the defense cheats up a lot and doesn't leave any deep help, there's nobody to tackle the running back if he gets through the second level. That requires having an elite running back (this article was discussing AP's ability to rip off massive runs on a REALLY limited offense).

 

[Heyjoe4]

I remember reading an article that pointed out that long runs were typically made because their were no defenders playing deep; i.e., when the defense cheats up a lot and doesn't leave any deep help, there's nobody to tackle the running back if he gets through the second level. That requires having an elite running back (this article was discussing AP's ability to rip off massive runs on a REALLY limited offense).

That makes sense. If there is a S and a CB playing farther back, and they can take the right angle AND tackle, the long run will be limited. But yeah if the secondary is cheating to stop a run, and the RB picks up a second-level block and/or puts a move on, he's gone.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

I remember reading an article that pointed out that long runs were typically made because their were no defenders playing deep; i.e., when the defense cheats up a lot and doesn't leave any deep help, there's nobody to tackle the running back if he gets through the second level. That requires having an elite running back (this article was discussing AP's ability to rip off massive runs on a REALLY limited offense).

While there might be some truth to it I believe that most running backs average less yards per attempt against a stacked box.

 

[Sunshinepacker]

While there might be some truth to it I believe that most running backs average less yards per attempt against a stacked box.

Yes, that's why it requires an elite RB to get those long runs.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

Yes, that's why it requires an elite RB to get those long runs.

I'm not convinced the Packers have one in Jones or Dillon capable of doing that on a regular basis though.

 

[Heyjoe4]

I'm not convinced the Packers have one in Jones or Dillon capable of doing that on a regular basis though.

Jones and Dillon are outstanding backs. That said, they're "grinders" and usually fight for every yard. They aren't the kind of backs who make defenders grab at air as they romp off for 20 or 30 yards untouched. I'm not complaining, but backs like that have a limited shelf life.

 

[tynimiller]

Jones and Dillon are outstanding backs. That said, they're "grinders" and usually fight for every yard. They aren't the kind of backs who make defenders grab at air as they romp off for 20 or 30 yards untouched. I'm not complaining, but backs like that have a limited shelf life.

Completely disagree on half of that for Jones. Jones can move chains inside the tackles but his game shines outside the tackles or when he breaks to second level and makes a guy miss. Filtered last year stats by 20+ yard rushes. Of running backs Aaron is right up there with leaders...but then you realize most of the guys with more also rushed the ball 30 or more times than him. Your point on Dillon is 100% accurate, he is massive mule of a back that will get an additional yard more than nearly any RB would in a moment, but he is not a play breaker - he is a defense breaker.

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[Heyjoe4]

Completely disagree on half of that for Jones. Jones can move chains inside the tackles but his game shines outside the tackles or when he breaks to second level and makes a guy miss. Filtered last year stats by 20+ yard rushes. Of running backs Aaron is right up there with leaders...but then you realize most of the guys with more also rushed the ball 30 or more times than him. Your point on Dillon is 100% accurate, he is massive mule of a back that will get an additional yard more than nearly any RB would in a moment, but he is not a play breaker - he is a defense breaker.

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I see your point on Jones. It's just my unscientific observation that he takes a lot of hits, and that's because he's not afraid to use his strength rather than out juke a guy. I think Jones will get to a point of diminishing returns in the next 2 or 3 years. But yeah he is a back capable of reeling off long runs. We haven't had that in a long time.

Dillon seems to love the contact, and he's strong enough and young enough to get away with it. We'll see how long it lasts. My comparison is that Dillon is what Eddy Lacy could have been if he stayed in shape.

And just as important as their ability to run is their ability to catch passes. A team is lucky if one of their RBs can catch. We have two. And I'm not talking about 2 or 3 yard dump off passes. I'm talking about RBs running routes as receivers. That will come in handy this year.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

While there might be some truth to it I believe that most running backs average less yards per attempt against a stacked box.

ESPN published a section about a shocking stat for each team yesterday. Interestingly, they listed the Packers numbers on runs against a light, a seven men or a stacked box.

Surprisingly, the Packers had most success against stacked boxes (4.6 YPA, 16.8% DVOA) compared to against a seven men front (4.2, 7.1%) and a light box (4.4, -10.3%).

And just as important as their ability to run is their ability to catch passes. A team is lucky if one of their RBs can catch. We have two. And I'm not talking about 2 or 3 yard dump off passes. I'm talking about RBs running routes as receivers.

While both Jones and Dillon might be able to line up as a receiver occasionally their average depth of target (Jones 0.9, Dillon 0.4) suggests nearly all of their targets have been on dump off passes.

 

[Heyjoe4]

ESPN published a section about a shocking stat for each team yesterday. Interestingly, they listed the Packers numbers on runs against a light, a seven men or a stacked box.

Surprisingly, the Packers had most success against stacked boxes (4.6 YPA, 16.8% DVOA) compared to against a seven men front (4.2, 7.1%) and a light box (4.4, -10.3%).



While both Jones and Dillon might be able to line up as a receiver occasionally their average depth of target (Jones 0.9, Dillon 0.4) suggests nearly all of their targets have been on dump off passes.

I expect the game plan for RBs to change quite a bit this year. Fewer dump off passes, more established plays/routes designed for Jones and Dillon. I was talking about the upcoming season, not the past.

The better point is that they have a lot of options for the passing game. Yes, some of these guys have to step up. Enough of them will.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

I expect the game plan for RBs to change quite a bit this year. Fewer dump off passes, more established plays/routes designed for Jones and Dillon. I was talking about the upcoming season, not the past.

While I expect both Jones and Dillon to be used as a wide receiver occasionally I don't think their average depth of target will increase significantly.

 

[Heyjoe4]

While I expect both Jones and Dillon to be used as a wide receiver occasionally I don't think their average depth of target will increase significantly.

Well, hopefully a few of the new WRs will step up. I think that will happen.

As for Dillon and Jones, yeah I don't expect them to be running 20-30 yard routes. I think they will be used more in the passing game, at least early in the season.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

As for Dillon and Jones, yeah I don't expect them to be running 20-30 yard routes. I think they will be used more in the passing game, at least early in the season.

I expect both Dillon and Jones to be targeted more often than last season as s
well. I doubt their average depth of target will dramatically increase because of it though.