Jaire Alexander 2022...Extension Inevitable?

[gopkrs]

The dude out performed EVERY receiver not picked in his draft outside the first round except for Michael Gallup essentially and similar to a few others in second (Sutton and Kirk)....sorry but if he didn't do enough for a 5th rounder I think you need to lower your expectations for 5th rounders at the WR skill position.

The expectation is the point. Not too much. 3 receivers we spent picks on. I hope we go for real quality with two of our picks this year. Be interesting to see if he starts catching with his hands although if he does not; he might not play a lot.

 

[AKCheese]

There are no points awarded in the NFL for “plays well for drafted in the X round” - none

 

[Schultz]

Totally disagree. The later round they are picked the less money they make. Hitting on 1 or 2 day 3 picks in each draft is a definite help to roster building.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

Totally disagree. The later round they are picked the less money they make. Hitting on 1 or 2 day 3 picks in each draft is a definite help to roster building.

I try to wait 4 years before grading the success of a draft class. I would say Gute's first draft (2018) was pretty poor. He had 11 picks, 8 of which were day 3. Alexander was a stud out of those 11, MVS was a pretty good pick for round 5, but I would consider the rest of the class duds.

- Josh Jones (2nd round): Was terrible in Green Bay, total bust.
- Oren Burks (3): played ok special teams, but stunk on defense.
- J'Mon Moore (4): Biggest dud of the class.
- Cole Madison (5): Never suited up.
- JK Scott (5): Looked promising and fizzled big time,
- ESB (6): Never got any traction at WR, injured a lot.
- James Looney (7): Immediate bust.
- Hunter Bradley (7): Played a few years at LS and then cut.
- Kendall Donnerson (7): Bust

We can talk about it more in a year, but Gute's 2019 draft isn't looking very good once you are out of the first 2 rounds.

 

[Packerbacker1996]

Currently, The Packers will have to pay Jaire a salary of $13,294,000, which is the price of his 5th year option. I don't think he will be any cheaper than that on a new contract. So signing him now, to "save" money, isn't really the case. Now if the Packers want to increase the amount of cap they have to spend in 2022, then a new contract could accomplish that.

We also don't know if Jaire even wants to be a Packer after this season. Everyone wondered why Adams wasn't resigned and I think his "Last Dance" tweet last summer might have been a clue.

I hope the Packers wait on a new deal, if that is an option. IF it isn't or they decide it isn't a deal they want to weight their future down with, we may see them tag and trade him like they did with Dava

I try to wait 4 years before grading the success of a draft class. I would say Gute's first draft (2018) was pretty poor. He had 11 picks, 8 of which were day 3. Alexander was a stud out of those 11, MVS was a pretty good pick for round 5, but I would consider the rest of the class duds.

- Josh Jones (2nd round): Was terrible in Green Bay, total bust.
- Oren Burks (3): played ok special teams, but stunk on defense.
- J'Mon Moore (4): Biggest dud of the class.
- Cole Madison (5): Never suited up.
- JK Scott (5): Looked promising and fizzled big time,
- ESB (6): Never got any traction at WR, injured a lot.
- James Looney (7): Immediate bust.
- Hunter Bradley (7): Played a few years at LS and then cut.
- Kendall Donnerson (7): Bust

We can talk about it more in a year, but Gute's 2019 draft isn't looking very good once you are out of the first 2 rounds.

Maybe time to invest in better and broader scouting team.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

Maybe time to invest in better and broader scouting team.

Hire the ones that are scouting Free agents and Practice Squad players. Gute's drafting outside of rounds 1 and 2 hasn't been that great, but he's been able to make up for it, by hitting home runs with non-draft signings.

 

[Schultz]

I will bring this up again in the down time after the draft as I do not expect anyone to spend any time on it with the draft a day away. Poker or any other stat guy please enlighten me on just what teams have been great outside of rounds 1 & 2 in the last 5 years.

 

[tynimiller]

I will bring this up again in the down time after the draft as I do not expect anyone to spend any time on it with the draft a day away. Poker or any other stat guy please enlighten me on just what teams have been great outside of rounds 1 & 2 in the last 5 years.

I may be intrigued enough to check sometime but my bet is start with first all the non playoff teams usually over the past few years….those teams have the greatest likelihood one would assume for Day 3 guys to contribute.

Likewise it also may just be the team that has had the most picks on Day 3 that have done the best….

 

[tynimiller]

I will bring this up again in the down time after the draft as I do not expect anyone to spend any time on it with the draft a day away. Poker or any other stat guy please enlighten me on just what teams have been great outside of rounds 1 & 2 in the last 5 years.

Never mind found something already….

Link to write up https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id...hich-teams-gotten-best-value-2012-rank-all-32

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

Again, I have been talking about Gute's draft classes and how he has done in the day 3 picks. Besides MVS, so far not all that well. Then you look at how TT did and it was his bread and butter. No surprise that the Packers have been the best from 2012 on their day 3 picks. Look at the list:

2012: Mike Daniel's (4th rd pick)
2013: Bahk (4th), Tretter (4th), Hyde (5th)
2014: Lindley (4th), Janus (7th)
2016: Lowery (4th), Martinez (4th)
2017: Williams (4th), Jones (5th)

 

[Deleted member 6794]

Top denotes best or close to best. No one has 3 cornerbacks that are in the top 10 in the league.
Imo, you don't want to expose yourself to poor cornerback play from anyone. Having one top 10 cornerback and 2 or 3 that are pretty good puts your pass defense in a good position to succeed. In a 32 team league, it's unrealistic to think you can stack top cornerbacks and still be good at other positions on the defense.

I agree it's completely unrealistic to expect having three top 10 cornerbacks on the same team. But Poker revised his original statement to above average in a later post. That's actually pretty important to having a decent pass defense.

I'm sure you will respond with a disagreement over what "productive" means...but Kingsley Keke, Ty Summers, Garvin are three guys in the last four drafts on Day 3 that many would argue fit that bill.

Actually it's true that Keke should be considered productive for a late round pick, I'm not sure I agree with Summers and Garvin at this point though.

Valdes-Scantling was productive while he was here as well. Can't remember if that was a Gutekunst or Thompson pick, but not bad for a 5th rounder.

True, I don't know why I thought Thompson was the one who drafted MVS. He should definitely be included in a list of productive day 3 picks.

Actually, I think it's a pretty solid strategy. You hit on one, get four years of production on a rookie contract, and then let someone else overpay for him while you go look for the next one.

I'd do it again.

The Packers need to add a rookie wide receiver who will be able to put up significantly better numbers than MVS though.

Captain excluded the 2018 class from his comment so that is why I did not include.

Brain fart, I thought Thompson was still in charge for the 2018 draft.

Since it is compared to other teams day 3 picks the bar may not be too high. I would also have to say that JK Scott and MVS were starters.

I don't consider a punter to be a starter.

I will bring this up again in the down time after the draft as I do not expect anyone to spend any time on it with the draft a day away. Poker or any other stat guy please enlighten me on just what teams have been great outside of rounds 1 & 2 in the last 5 years.

While it's definitely not a perfect metric by any means here's how Gutekunst has fared compared to other teams based on Pro Football Reference's Approximate Value of day three picks since 2018.

It seems that sometimes a lot of fans (myself included) have way too high expectations for players picked in the fourth round or later.

You must be logged in to see this image or video!

 

[tynimiller]

It seems that sometimes a lot of fans (myself included) have way too high expectations for players picked in the fourth round or later.

100000%

Of course things have a sliding scale given depth at position and such but I've always kinda held that out of my Day 3 picks I want minimum to find two guys that can hold an active roster spot for their rookie contracts and hopefully ST or reserve play at times; with dream scenario being you find that one true GEM. I will say I expect more out of OL drafted Day 3 then any other position. Day 3 is for STs and roster structure depth - homerun gems are nice when they happen but we shouldn't expect them.

 

[Schultz]

I feel

I agree it's completely unrealistic to expect having three top 10 cornerbacks on the same team. But Poker revised his original statement to above average in a later post. That's actually pretty important to having a decent pass defense.



Actually it's true that Keke should be considered productive for a late round pick, I'm not sure I agree with Summers and Garvin at this point though.



True, I don't know why I thought Thompson was the one who drafted MVS. He should definitely be included in a list of productive day 3 picks.



The Packers need to add a rookie wide receiver who will be able to put up significantly better numbers than MVS though.



Brain fart, I thought Thompson was still in charge for the 2018 draft.



I don't consider a punter to be a starter.



While it's definitely not a perfect metric by any means here's how Gutekunst has fared compared to other teams based on Pro Football Reference's Approximate Value of day three picks since 2018.

It seems that sometimes a lot of fans (myself included) have way too high expectations for players picked in the fourth round or later.

You must be logged in to see this image or video!

Thanks,I feel slightly vindicated. I also believe last years day 3 draft has a good chance to improve Gute's ranking. IMO 3 things contribute to the perception Gute has been below avg. on day 3.
1. TT was so good in his last few day 3 drafts.
2. As stated, expectations are too high.
3. Most do not follow other teams, so they do not have realistic comparisons. If you just would have told me the Pack was tied for 7th, I would have had absolutely no idea who the 6 teams ahead of them were. My 1st guess would have been N.E. since we (most) consider BB a genius.

 

[sschind]

Again, I have been talking about Gute's draft classes and how he has done in the day 3 picks. Besides MVS, so far not all that well. Then you look at how TT did and it was his bread and butter. No surprise that the Packers have been the best from 2012 on their day 3 picks. Look at the list:

2012: Mike Daniel's (4th rd pick)
2013: Bahk (4th), Tretter (4th), Hyde (5th)
2014: Lindley (4th), Janus (7th)
2016: Lowery (4th), Martinez (4th)
2017: Williams (4th), Jones (5th)

Oh... You were serious. Looking at the 2014 draft I thought you were making a joke.

A lot of those are linemen. I think but I'm not sure, it would be easier to hit on those type of players in the later rounds than it would be to hit on the skill position players.

I think its easier to consider day three picks a success as well due to the expectations we have for them. Like several have said if a 5th rounder and a 2nd rounder put up the same stats we might consider the 2nd rounder a bust while the 5th rounder a hit.

As far as MVS goes he may have put up better stats than many picked before him but that doesn't necessarily mean he should be considered a hit,. Just not as big of a bust. For where he was drafted MVS did fine for us but that does not mean he warranted us keeping him and giving him 10 million.

Personally I don't care where a player is drafted. I care about how he plays.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

Personally I don't care where a player is drafted. I care about how he plays.

I would add to that, "I care how he plays as a Packer." I wouldn't call a player that was drafted by the Packers, but didn't do much in Green Bay a successful draft pick, even if said player goes on to be a very good player for another team. After all, wasn't it the Packers that invested the draft capital, money and coaching into said player? Casey Hayward and Micah Hyde were ok picks....for the Packers, but they were great "free agents signings" for their second teams.

 

[McKnowledge]

The Packers will need a combination of receivers picking up the slack with Adams not being around anymore no matter what. Taking a look at the current depth chart I have more faith in a first round rookie to put up decent numbers than any other WR currently on the roster.

I have a strong inkling if Pickens or Pierce join the roster, they will be instant ROY candidates

I understand that Alexander will ask to be paid at market value but it doesn't matter if it's his first, second or third big contract.

I think a player's first big contract may be a big deal, considering there is no guarantee you'll get another or even survive the first deal.

It's possible to have an elite player at a position and to surround him with above average players as well.

True, if Green Bay grabs another CB that performs well right away, then we'll be dealing with that very scenario this upcoming season.
.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

IMO 3 things contribute to the perception Gute has been below avg. on day 3.
1. TT was so good in his last few day 3 drafts.

That's true, here's the ranking based on Approximate Value of day 3 picks during Thompson's last four drafts from 2014-17.

You must be logged in to see this image or video!

Casey Hayward and Micah Hyde were ok picks....for the Packers, but they were great "free agents signings" for their second teams.

I agree with your point of view but consider Hayward a better than ok pick for the Packers.

I think a player's first big contract may be a big deal, considering there is no guarantee you'll get another or even survive the first deal.

While you're right about that my point is that a player set to become a free agent looks to be paid fair market value no matter if it's his first, second or third big deal.

 

[McKnowledge]

While you're right about that my point is that a player set to become a free agent looks to be paid fair market value no matter if it's his first, second or third big deal.

I think that's a given. That's common sense and common knowledge.

You must be logged in to see this image or video!