Let me get back to you in 10 years and I'll tell you for sure.
It won't take 10 years, but point taken. What happens in the next few seasons will color how this season will be viewed.
At this point is it somewhat reminiscent of the 2005-2006 period. Though the events do not line up in sequence, that blended two year period and this season share disappointing performance (4-12 followed by 8-8) with a franchise QB in place, GM and HC turnover, and a turn toward free agency as a roster rebuilding tool.
Going into 2005, the Packers were over the cap and Thompson did not re-sign Rivera and cut Wahle and Sharper. While the current cap situation is not dire, we are likely to see some formerly core players shed this offseason as at the start of 2005.
While Thompson is known as a draft-and-develop guy, it's worth noting he was quite active in free agency in his first two seasons. In 2005, he signed Klemm and O'Dwyer to replace the departing guards, a couple of vet free agent safeties in Arturo Freeman and Earl Little, and a vet LB in Raynoch Thompson. Most of these guys did not survive final cut downs and none made it to 2006. While none of these signings were as splashy as the Graham signing, the two FA classes were similarly disappointing.
2006 was Thompson's most active free agent year in terms of player profiles and cost, signing Woodson, Pickett, Marquand Manual, DT Kendrick Allen (expected to compete as a starter who went to IR after 2 games), LB Ben Taylor (who was a starter with Cleveland the previous year but did not crack the lineup) and K Billy Cundiff (who was cut in favor of Raynor). Woodson was, of course, a home run, Pickett was a line drive double, and the rest were of no value in the rebuilding process.
We expect Gutekunst to be active in free agency again, from his own statements and with about $30 mil in cap to work with, more if Perry, Bulaga and/or Graham are released. Perhaps we should add Daniels to the list. It can't be all of them but we should expect one or more to be departing. I think it's fair to say Gutekunst needs that home run and solid double of Thompson's 2006 free agent forays, and more to the extent he parts ways with some of those vets.
Thompson's 2005 and 2006 drafts yielded players for the 2007 turnaround and in the rebuilding toward the 2010 Superbowl team. Besides Rodgers, there was Collins, Hawk, Jennings and Colledge. Though we would not expect a high pick QB in Gutekunst's second draft, there is a need to build on the last draft whereby in the 2020 season there is a critical mass of talent with youth and experience. This last draft appears to be a good starting point.
