Half time adjustments myth or real

[Southside]

Myth

 

[Schultz]

Not really sure what you are alluding to, but Rodgers is tied for 28th in 4th Q. comebacks.

NFL Fourth Quarter Comebacks Career Leaders (since 1950) | Pro-Football-Reference.com

1. Tom Brady (46), 2. Peyton Manning (43), 3. Ben Roethlisberger (41), 4. Matt Ryan (38), 5. Drew Brees (36),

www.pro-football-reference.com

You only get credited with a 4th quarter comeback if your team wins the game. My contension is that Rodgers has tied or put his team in the lead in the 4th quarter percentage wise as much as those other guys. It is not his fault if the GB defense couldn't hold those leads.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

You only get credited with a 4th quarter comeback if your team wins the game. My contension is that Rodgers has tied or put his team in the lead in the 4th quarter percentage wise as much as those other guys. It is not his fault if the GB defense couldn't hold those leads.

Are there stats to support that or just a gut feeling? I've seen many comebacks fail due to the defense not holding the lead.

 

[PackerDNA]

I had always been a proponent of halftime adjustments. But reading comments from Manning and others I've changed my mind. Still a big proponent of in-game adjustments though.

 

[GreenNGold_81]

You only get credited with a 4th quarter comeback if your team wins the game. My contension is that Rodgers has tied or put his team in the lead in the 4th quarter percentage wise as much as those other guys. It is not his fault if the GB defense couldn't hold those leads.

Happy to see the stats.

 

[rmontro]

Happy to see the stats.

I'd like to see the stats also. I actually think Rodgers would fare better were it not for collapsing defenses. But I don't know if they keep stats on "almost comebacks". Maybe a better yardstick would be winning the game on the last drive, or a percentage of having a chance to win on the last drive because you have the ball? But then there's a question of how much time is left, and eh, forget it.

 

[mradtke66]

I'd like to see the stats also. I actually think Rodgers would fare better were it not for collapsing defenses. But I don't know if they keep stats on "almost comebacks". Maybe a better yardstick would be winning the game on the last drive, or a percentage of having a chance to win on the last drive because you have the ball? But then there's a question of how much time is left, and eh, forget it.

Personally, I find the stat around 4th quarter comebacks somewhat meaningless. Not entirely, just largely.

In an exceptionally absurd example, let's assume we have Team-A down by 2 with 1:30 left on the clock. They do not have the ball. Team-A forces a turnover and returns it to the opposition 5 yard line.

Team-A Quarterback proceeds to take 3 straight sacks leaving them with a 67 yard field goal try to win the game. The kick is made and we now have a new NFL record for the longest field goal.

Team-A Quarterback did nothing to help the team win. If anything, he did everything he could to lose the game. Yet he gets a 4th quarter comeback on his stat sheet.

(Please ignore the coaching decisions to call three straight passes. It is an absurd example for a reason.)

 

[Schultz]

Are there stats to support that or just a gut feeling? I've seen many comebacks fail due to the defense not holding the lead.

Just the eye test my man. On the other hand if defenses didn't fail to hold the lead there would be a lot less comebacks.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

Just the eye test my man. On the other hand if defenses didn't fail to hold the lead there would never be any comebacks.

I would agree on it probably having to be an eye test and while Rodgers has had some miraculous finishes over the years, he has also had some memorable duds too.

As far as the defense holding the lead, I guess that is up for debate too. If the offense can't put points on the board and the defense continues to play well, it might be a matter of time before the other team scores due to a turnover or shortened field.

The stat I gave you before, where Rodgers is tied for 28th in 4th Q. comebacks, isn't a very positive stat to support the position that you are making. However, as you and others are saying, maybe the eye test or other stats, could be more favorable for him?

 

[McKnowledge]

Let's not forget that halftime adjustments is more mental than anything.

Coaches can implement tweaks or new plays into the game script for the second half...

But the players have to make those mental adjustments to in order to carry the plan out...

It can be a real thing depending on the mental discipline of the team.

The mental toughness and discipline begins and ends with the HC and coaches.

 

[mradtke66]

The stat I gave you before, where Rodgers is tied for 28th in 4th Q. comebacks, isn't a very positive stat to support the position that you are making. However, as you and others are saying, maybe the eye test or other stats, could be more favorable for him?

As I've said previously, I don't put a ton of faith in this stat. One of the many problems/questions to ask if "How many times is the quarterback in position to make a 4th quarter comeback?"

If you're blowing people out on the regular, you won't get chance. So being low on the list is good.

Meanwhile, if you're so bad that you're down 3 scores halfway through the 4th quarter, being low on the list bad.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

As I've said previously, I don't put a ton of faith in this stat. One of the many problems/questions to ask if "How many times is the quarterback in position to make a 4th quarter comeback?"

If you're blowing people out on the regular, you won't get chance. So being low on the list is good.

Meanwhile, if you're so bad that you're down 3 scores halfway through the 4th quarter, being low on the list bad.

Given that the 31 QB's ahead of Rodgers, include a lot of QB's that played on really good teams, as well as won SB's, I have to disagree with that logic.

 

[mradtke66]

Given that the 31 QB's ahead of Rodgers, include a lot of QB's that played on really good teams, as well as won SB's, I have to disagree with that logic.

The quality of the team the quarterback is on isn't the only factor though. If you're playing bad teams, you're more likely to win by more scores.

Similarly, if the teams the quarterback is on is at the right level of completeness, not too good and not too bad, they'll have more opportunities.
Edit: Sorry, hit submit too soon. In particular in this category I place Stafford and Elway.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

The quality of the team the quarterback is on isn't the only factor though. If you're playing bad teams, you're more likely to win by more scores.

So now you are saying that the opponents of some of those QB's needs to be taken into consideration? That is adding a variable, that is really complicated to factor in.

Similarly, if the teams the quarterback is on is at the right level of completeness, not too good and not too bad, they'll have more opportunities.

Again, very subjective with "not too good and not too bad". What does that measurable boil down too?

Stafford is the best example of guys ahead of Rodgers on that list, that probably had ample opportunities to stage comebacks with crappy teams in Detroit. That being said, wouldn't he be given extra credit, because he did stage those comeback....with crappy teams?

 

[mradtke66]

Found the thing I was looking for, though the stats are out of date (top out at 2018.) https://www.footballperspective.com/guest-post-4th-quarter-comeback-percentage/

Hopefully some day these stats can be updated....

At the time, Rodgers success rate in the 4th quarter was 20%. 14 conversions in 72 attempts.

Manning was 43/122 for 35%

Brady was 35/95 for 37%

Elway 31/114 for 28%

Marino 33/126 for 28%.

So yes, Rodgers has had fewer attempts, but he's also slightly behind on his success rate. We can both be right @Pokerbrat2000

EDIT: Darn, I'm being sloppy with posting too early. Rodgers also managed to dig himself quite the hole his first year starting, going 1/8 in 2008.

 

[mradtke66]

So now you are saying that the opponents of some of those QB's needs to be taken into consideration? That is adding a variable, that is really complicated to factor in.

100%. Like I said, I don't trust the stat because of all the variability wrapped up in and around it.

 

[Mondio]

there are a lot of mediocre to bad teams in the NFL. Yes, if you find yourself going back and forth with another mediocre or poor team and you win some and you lose some but you're always in that position does it really mean much? Where as the other guy is on a team that regularly is well in the lead and never trailing in the 4th quarter against those same teams, but often seemed to find himself in that position against better teams like in the playoffs, i'd expect a lower percentage of successful comebacks. Toss in a defensive rankings and special teams giving up big returns and who got ball first etc. So many variables to take into account and many of them have a very large impact.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

As far as the defense holding the lead, I guess that is up for debate too. If the offense can't put points on the board and the defense continues to play well, it might be a matter of time before the other team scores due to a turnover or shortened field.

Wait a moment, are you still talking about fourth quarter comebacks? If so, there's no way for the defense to hold a lead if the offense doesn't score first.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

Just taking a look at Rodgers first season as the starter should work as evidence that the total number of fourth quarter comebacks shouldn't be considered a particular good metric to evaluate a quarterback.

Here's a summary of what happened in the games the Packers trailed in the fourth quarter of 2008:

Week 2 vs. Detroit (W 48-25): The Packers trailed 25-24 with 7:51 left in the game and scored 24 points the rest of the way. Rodgers completed a total of only two passes during that span though with Jennings taking a short one for 60 yards. Meanwhile the defense returned two interceptions for a TD. Woo-Hoo, fourth quarter comeback for Rodgers though.

Week 3 vs. Dallas (L 27-16): The Packers were trailing 20-9 entering the fourth quarter and fell behind by 18 points with 9:17 left. Rodgers never got the ball trailing by only a score in that game.

Week 4 vs. Tampa Bay (L 30-21): The Packers entered the fourth quarter trailing 20-14 but took the lead with 13:43 left. Hail Rodgers!!! Wait a moment, they took the lead on an interception return TD. Unfortunately the defense gave up another 10 points the rest of the way and it seems Rodgers was injured as Flynn took the majority of snaps in that quarter.

Week 5 vs. Atlanta (L 27-24): The Packers trailed 17-10 going into the fourth quarter but tied the game with 10 minutes left on a TD pass from Rodgers to Jennings. Rodgers threw another TD pass in the quarter but the defense wasn't able to hold the Falcons under 10 points, resulting in a loss.

Week 9 vs. Tennessee (L 19-16 OT): The Packers tied the game after entering the fourth quarter trailing 16-13 but never got the ball in OT as the Titans won it on a field goal.

Week 10 vs. Minnesota (L 28-27): Green Bay led most of the way in the fourth quarter before the Vikings took the lead with 2:22 remaining. Rodgers drove the Packers into field goal range but Crosby missed a 52-yarder.

Week 12 vs. New Orleans (L 51-29): Entering the fourth quarter New Orleans was up 45-21 and the Packers never come close to getting anywhere near staging a comeback.

Week 13 vs. Carolina (L 35-31): The teams entered the fourth quarter tied at 21 with the Packers taking the lead twice, the last time with 1:57 left on a field goal by Crosby. Unfortunately the kickoff was returned to the 45 and on the next play the defense gave up a 54-yard completion to the one with the Panthers scoring on the next play.

Week 14 vs. Houston (L 24-21): Houston led 13-7 entering the fourth quarter. The Packers took the lead at 14-13 and tied the game at 21 before the defense allowed Houston to drive for a winning field goal with time expiring.

Week 15 vs. Jacksonville (L 16-14): The Packers led 13-7 entering the fourth quarter. After the Jags took the lead the Packers were able to regain it on a Crosby field goal with 5:35 left just to see the defense once again not being able to hold onto it.

Solely taking a look at the number of fourth quarter comebacks Rodgers is credited with one. Never mind he was hardly responsible for it by any means. On the other hand there were six other games in which he was at least partly responsible for the team either taking the lead, tying the game or setting the offense up to turn around the game which won't show up in that category.

With that being said I conclude that people put way too much stock into it without taking a closer look at what actually happened in those games.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

Wait a moment, are you still talking about fourth quarter comebacks? If so, there's no way for the defense to hold a lead if the offense doesn't score first.

I poorly worded that. I meant to say "If the offense is having a hard time putting points on the board..."

Although, it is quite conceivable for a team to be down starting the 4th Q and the Defense and/or Special Teams scores points to put them in the lead. Which if that was the situation, the QB shouldn't be getting any credit for it.

 

[Schultz]

Just taking a look at Rodgers first season as the starter should work as evidence that the total number of fourth quarter comebacks shouldn't be considered a particular good metric to evaluate a quarterback.

Here's a summary of what happened in the games the Packers trailed in the fourth quarter of 2008:

Week 2 vs. Detroit (W 48-25): The Packers trailed 25-24 with 7:51 left in the game and scored 24 points the rest of the way. Rodgers completed a total of only two passes during that span though with Jennings taking a short one for 60 yards. Meanwhile the defense returned two interceptions for a TD. Woo-Hoo, fourth quarter comeback for Rodgers though.

Week 3 vs. Dallas (L 27-16): The Packers were trailing 20-9 entering the fourth quarter and fell behind by 18 points with 9:17 left. Rodgers never got the ball trailing by only a score in that game.

Week 4 vs. Tampa Bay (L 30-21): The Packers entered the fourth quarter trailing 20-14 but took the lead with 13:43 left. Hail Rodgers!!! Wait a moment, they took the lead on an interception return TD. Unfortunately the defense gave up another 10 points the rest of the way and it seems Rodgers was injured as Flynn took the majority of snaps in that quarter.

Week 5 vs. Atlanta (L 27-24): The Packers trailed 17-10 going into the fourth quarter but tied the game with 10 minutes left on a TD pass from Rodgers to Jennings. Rodgers threw another TD pass in the quarter but the defense wasn't able to hold the Falcons under 10 points, resulting in a loss.

Week 9 vs. Tennessee (L 19-16 OT): The Packers tied the game after entering the fourth quarter trailing 16-13 but never got the ball in OT as the Titans won it on a field goal.

Week 10 vs. Minnesota (L 28-27): Green Bay led most of the way in the fourth quarter before the Vikings took the lead with 2:22 remaining. Rodgers drove the Packers into field goal range but Crosby missed a 52-yarder.

Week 12 vs. New Orleans (L 51-29): Entering the fourth quarter New Orleans was up 45-21 and the Packers never come close to getting anywhere near staging a comeback.

Week 13 vs. Carolina (L 35-31): The teams entered the fourth quarter tied at 21 with the Packers taking the lead twice, the last time with 1:57 left on a field goal by Crosby. Unfortunately the kickoff was returned to the 45 and on the next play the defense gave up a 54-yard completion to the one with the Panthers scoring on the next play.

Week 14 vs. Houston (L 24-21): Houston led 13-7 entering the fourth quarter. The Packers took the lead at 14-13 and tied the game at 21 before the defense allowed Houston to drive for a winning field goal with time expiring.

Week 15 vs. Jacksonville (L 16-14): The Packers led 13-7 entering the fourth quarter. After the Jags took the lead the Packers were able to regain it on a Crosby field goal with 5:35 left just to see the defense once again not being able to hold onto it.

Solely taking a look at the number of fourth quarter comebacks Rodgers is credited with one. Never mind he was hardly responsible for it by any means. On the other hand there were six other games in which he was at least partly responsible for the team either taking the lead, tying the game or setting the offense up to turn around the game which won't show up in that category.

With that being said I conclude that people put way too much stock into it without taking a closer look at what actually happened in those games.

At least in this particular season my hypothesis seems to be correct.

 

[OldSchool101]

Like I pointed out, the stats might not bare it out, just a feeling on my part. Of course when your offense is going 3 and out too many times, that doesn't help the defense either.

Yep. Momentum is a key component of winning contests. It’s so important we could be the team that’s actually winning by score, but that 17 point halftime lead has diminished to 3 pts and our opponent has the ball and just marched past midfield with three easy 1st downs and we’re in the early 4th quarter. That famous probability meter might show your winning % as 63%. Yet those of us who watch sports already know that meter doesn’t factor for momentum.

I say that because it supports your “gut feeling” that you’re about to lose and lose miserably. Blowing a massive lead. The issue with the Defense is it’s discouraging watching your Offense put up 8-9 points average per half. All phases need to carry their weight. You can’t have your Offense punt 4 times in a row and expect the Defense never tires or makes a critical mistake. We sucked at Offense for an entire half a season, while our Defense was a respectable 18-20 points per game. What we they have been had we replaced just 1 or 2 of those Punts with a 85 yard, 8 minute drive that just absolutely wore our opponent to the core.
The answer is in contests like our Tennessee game. They had that long, defeating drive that just humiliated us and our Offense refused to answer! Our Defense even Won the Turnover battle and Rasul INT a sure TD drive at the GB 12 yard line. Our Offense responded with a 3 play -2 yards and :90 sec later put our Defense back out there! Thank You very much Offense can you not at least get 1 1st Down! Maybe advance the ball +1??

Earlier in the game Tennessee had a 18 play, 61 yard drive that consumed 10 minutes! Actually it was 10:06! Our Defense did their job and stopped them on 4th Down! #12 n Co comes in 3 plays -5 yards in :90 sec? Yes Again! You can’t make that stuff up. TN has a #22 rated Defense. #23 in yards and we go -7 yards in 6 tries after being gifted TWO Defensive turnovers.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

At least in this particular season my hypothesis seems to be correct.

Like the Giants game when the offense didn't score any points in the second half and the Giants scored 17 to win by 5?

Like when the Packers offense only scored 14 points against the Commanders all day and 7 of those were in the 2nd half, when the Commanders scored 13 and won by 2?

Really the only 2 games I can remotely say that the it was totally only on the defense for crapping the bed, lost us the game. One against the Lions and maybe in the 2nd half of the Jets game. But again, the offense didn't do much in those games wither.

 

[mradtke66]

Like the Giants game when the offense didn't score any points in the second half and the Giants scored 17 to win by 5?

Like when the Packers offense only scored 14 points against the Commanders all day and 7 of those were in the 2nd half, when the Commanders scored 13 and won by 2?

Really the only 2 games I can remotely say that the it was totally only on the defense for crapping the bed, lost us the game. One against the Lions and maybe in the 2nd half of the Jets game. But again, the offense didn't do much in those games wither.

Hopefully I'm on the right thread on this topic, it's been all over the board...

This year, 2022, I'm much more disappointed in the defense. The offense pretty much did what I expected them to do. There were certainly games where they, the defense, help up their end of the bargain, but we needed them to be top-level dominant to cover us, not just hold up their end of the bargain.

No Bhak, no Jenkins, not Devante. Watson got hurt early. Just breaking training camp, my internal monolog was, "If this offense can end up around 15th, we had a successful season."

 

[Schultz]

Like the Giants game when the offense didn't score any points in the second half and the Giants scored 17 to win by 5?

Like when the Packers offense only scored 14 points against the Commanders all day and 7 of those were in the 2nd half, when the Commanders scored 13 and won by 2?

Really the only 2 games I can remotely say that the it was totally only on the defense for crapping the bed, lost us the game. One against the Lions and maybe in the 2nd half of the Jets game. But again, the offense didn't do much in those games wither.

Geez! My response was to the rundown the Captain gave of Rodgers 1st year as a starter.