Green Bay should go get DK Metcalf

[tynimiller]

I ran my first one with the new picks this morning. I hit gold. lol....

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LOL...Christian Watson in the 4th??? This is why that mock generator sucks. That young man will be lucky to see a draft pick later than about 55 or so.....and may shock folks flirting with one in the 30s...

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

LOL...Christian Watson in the 4th??? This is why that mock generator sucks. That young man will be lucky to see a draft pick later than about 55 or so.....and may shock folks flirting with one in the 30s...

Why do you think I grabbed him? Lol

Draft simulators are fun, but the results are pretty much tied into each sites "Big Board". Once you get past pick 5 or so, anything can happen.

If you run enough of them, on multiple sites, you really get a feel for just how fricking prepared Gute and company need to be to have a successful draft.

 

[tynimiller]

Why do you think I grabbed him? Lol

Draft simulators are fun, but the results are pretty much tied into each sites "Big Board". Once you get past pick 5 or so, anything can happen.

If you run enough of them, on multiple sites, you really get a feel for just how fricking prepared Gute and company need to be to have a successful draft.

Yeah but I ignore when such things happen honestly, although I'll be honest I think I finally settled on The Draft Network as one of the better simulators....however I do know its limitations as well. Right now I could essentially wait till the 7th round late and pick up Kevin Austin Jr (WR) and I in no way believe that is happening.

Honestly though three WRs have me very very intrigued to see how NFL teams scouted them and I think if we had a line into every draft room we'd learn the opinions are DIVERSE are Jalen Tolbert, Alec Pierce and Christian Watson.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

Yeah but I ignore when such things happen honestly, although I'll be honest I think I finally settled on The Draft Network as one of the better simulators....however I do know its limitations as well. Right now I could essentially wait till the 7th round late and pick up Kevin Austin Jr (WR) and I in no way believe that is happening.

Yes, that plays into it as well, user bias with how they rank players, as well as you point out, knowing how each simulator has players ranked. Confirmational bias comes in as well and probably why we as fans think "oh man that guy was a steal" or "that guy was such a reach".

When the actual draft happens, once again I hope that there is a run on the 3 or so QB's that could go before the Packers pick, as well as CB's and OL. Let all those WR's and DL drop to 22 and 28!

So who would you take with #22 if these guys were still on the board?

-Olave, London and Karlaftis?

 

[tynimiller]

Yes, that plays into it as well, user bias with how they rank players, as well as you point out, knowing how each simulator has players ranked. Confirmational bias comes in as well and probably why we as fans think "oh man that guy was a steal" or "that guy was such a reach".

When the actual draft happens, once again I hope that there is a run on the 3 or so QB's that could go before the Packers pick, as well as CB's and OL. Let all those WR's and DL drop to 22 and 28!

So who would you take with #22 if these guys were still on the board?

-Olave, London and Karlaftis?

That is the question I'm stuck massively with and despise that question because I truly don't believe there is a good or right answer. IF that scenario plays out at #22, today this morning I cannot ignore Karlaftis is a guy I 100% put us out on at #28 and at #22 those three guys are there and you are telling me we don't have Wyatt or Davis there as well, nor a CB top prospect that has fell...I'm going Karlaftis. I think honestly Packer fans need to prepare themselves that if Gute sits still at #22 there is a serious chance we go defense and then at 28 go either WR, starting caliber RT or trade back.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

That is the question I'm stuck massively with and despise that question because I truly don't believe there is a good or right answer. IF that scenario plays out at #22, today this morning I cannot ignore Karlaftis is a guy I 100% put us out on at #28 and at #22 those three guys are there and you are telling me we don't have Wyatt or Davis there as well, nor a CB top prospect that has fell...I'm going Karlaftis. I think honestly Packer fans need to prepare themselves that if Gute sits still at #22 there is a serious chance we go defense and then at 28 go either WR, starting caliber RT or trade back.

It is very interesting to have picks #22 and #28 in the first round, as well as be in that position again in round 2. Since it allows you to say "well there are 3-5 guys I could take and be happy, but will one of them still be there at 28?" I think Gute uses them both, unless 2 things happen, there is absolutely someone that the Packers covet in the 7-15 range and they use both to move up. Or if Pick #22 has a bunch of guys they like, and they can get one of them at #28 and get an early 2nd rounder and a mid 3rd rounder for pick #28, they might.

Lots of options for Gute and between now and the draft, moves might change their approach, as well as how many picks they have.

 

[Arod2gjdd]

DK is about the only thing that can salvage this situation; but he is unlikely.

The rest of the options have seen too many winters, or too few...

 

[McKnowledge]

OBJ isn't signed with the Rams and tore his ACL.

He's a UFA. I meant he's not leaving LA. He's gonna stay there and rehab.

Either he resigns with LA, or I think he'll take the year off and rehab or try to comeback during season if healthy.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

He's a UFA. I meant he's not leaving LA. He's gonna stay there and rehab.

Either he resigns with LA, or I think he'll take the year off and rehab or try to comeback during season if healthy.

I would be surprised if the Rams signed him now, maybe at a big discount or if he is still unsigned this fall. They paid Robinson a lot of money and even traded Robert Woods away, mainly a cap move I think. However, they are still loaded at WR. Kupp, Robinson and Jefferson. Maybe if they sign OBJ, they would trade Jefferson to us for a 6th.

 

[OldSchool101]

happening.

Honestly though three WRs have me very very intrigued to see how NFL teams scouted them and I think if we had a line into every draft room we'd learn the opinions are DIVERSE are Jalen Tolbert, Alec Pierce and Christian Watson.

I love that group. I think at least 2 of those 3 will have good success in the NFL.
Pierce looks like Jordy part 2
Watson? Fun to watch; just give him our helmet! already looks perfect in Green n Gold!
Tolbert.. Davante like footwork possessing the physicality needed in press
He’s a “near NFL ready” #2 imo

 

[Munch]

We need the Triple J Squad to come out of retirement and carry us over the finish line.
Jordy
Jones
Jennings

 

[mradtke66]

, there is absolutely someone that the Packers covet in the 7-15 range and they use both to move up.

Once I heard Adams was traded, I was off to checkout a recent pick value chart.

#22 and #28 are worth about the same as #10.

#22 + #28 + either second are worth about #5.

#53 + 59 are worth about #27.

Assuming they like someone I'd be fine with any of those approaches. Depending how things are falling, I'm most interested staying at 22 and 28, and then trading both 2nds for #27. The fifth year option is incredibly valuable and having 3 1st in one year would be crazy.

My second favorite would be a combination: Get the 10th and add on 27th, but you had really like whoever you can get at those slots.

 

[tynimiller]

Once I heard Adams was traded, I was off to checkout a recent pick value chart.

#22 and #28 are worth about the same as #10.

#22 + #28 + either second are worth about #5.

#53 + 59 are worth about #27.

Assuming they like someone I'd be fine with any of those approaches. Depending how things are falling, I'm most interested staying at 22 and 28, and then trading both 2nds for #27. The fifth year option is incredibly valuable and having 3 1st in one year would be crazy.

My second favorite would be a combination: Get the 10th and add on 27th, but you had really like whoever you can get at those slots.

You aren't getting a first for two late seconds, I don't see that or care what chart claims it.

 

[Magooch]

You aren't getting a first for two late seconds, I don't see that or care what chart claims it.

Yeah I don't see that as realistic at all. If that were the case you'd see teams trying to wheel and deal that type of thing every year, lol.

Though I do think it wouldn't be out of the question to trade (for example) 28 and 53 or something into the late teens, perhaps.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

I think that there should be enough value....at positions of greatest need for the Packers, that using those 2 picks in the first round to grab a WR and a iDL would be ideal for my night. I would prefer they don't give up any of their first 4 picks. The more darts you have early, I think the more likely you hit on 50-75% of them. Unless it is 2018 and only 1 out of your 11 picks (Alexander) is still on the team. I love Alexander, but Gute's first draft is officially a bust.

Wow....just realized that we don't have a lot of original Packers from 2018 and earlier, just 8 by my count.

2018- Alexander
2017- Aaron Jones
2016- Clark and Lowery
2015
2014
2013 - Bahk
2012
2011- Cobb
2010
2009
2008
2007- Crosby
2006
2005 - Rodgers

Not going to take the time, but in going through all those drafts, not many of those guys are even still in the NFL.

 

[tynimiller]

I think that there should be enough value....at positions of greatest need for the Packers, that using those 2 picks in the first round to grab a WR and a iDL would be ideal for my night. I would prefer they don't give up any of their first 4 picks. The more darts you have early, I think the more likely you hit on 50-75% of them. Unless it is 2018 and only 1 out of your 11 picks (Alexander) is still on the team. I love Alexander, but Gute's first draft is officially a bust.

Wow....just realized that we don't have a lot of original Packers from 2018 and earlier, just 8 by my count.

2018- Alexander
2017- Aaron Jones
2016- Clark and Lowery
2015
2014
2013 - Bahk
2012
2011- Cobb
2010
2009
2008
2007- Crosby
2006
2005 - Rodgers

Not going to take the time, but in going through all those drafts, not many of those guys are even still in the NFL.

Given the average time spent in the NFL not surprising...

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

Given the average time spent in the NFL not surprising...

Shhhhh....some posters will then conclude that is the reason that a guy like Cole Madison should have gotten $20M, since the owners are rich and Cole no longer can put food on his table.

 

[mradtke66]

You aren't getting a first for two late seconds, I don't see that or care what chart claims it.

If you haven't seen the chart, how are you so quick to dismiss it? What about it do find unlikely?

I'm working from here: https://www.drafttek.com/NFL-Trade-Value-Chart.asp?RequestTeam=GB

Our two seconds are valued at 370 and 310 points each. In a perfect 1:1 situation, that matches #27 at 680 points.

27 is probably shooting too high. That pick is held by Tampa and I doubt they'd be willing to help a team they are likely to meet in the playoffs. 29-31 are held by AFC teams and we'd be slightly over paying, so they'd win the trade.

Yeah I don't see that as realistic at all. If that were the case you'd see teams trying to wheel and deal that type of thing every year, lol.

We're in a somewhat unique case of having 2 2nd round picks in the same year. Future year picks typically have reduced value in trades as you don't know where they will land.

Though I do think it wouldn't be out of the question to trade (for example) 28 and 53 or something into the late teens, perhaps.

This is pretty close. 22 and 53 would work out to about 13th if you get a perfect 1:1. Rebuilding Texans might like that deal. I'd tentatively be happy as well.

28 and 53 works out right between 15 and 16, both owned by the Eagles. I'd assume 15-19 would require a small overpay as these are all NFC teams that are potentially not as interested in helping us.

28 and 59 works out to between 16 and 17. Same issue as before, we'd likely have to overpay because the trade partner is an NFC team or be willing to slide down to 20 (Steelers.)

 

[Ogsponge]

Getting Chenal with your 3rd pick…. i’m in.

That is pretty much a pipe dream, don’t believe both those guys will be available at 22 and 28

 

[swhitset]

That is pretty much a pipe dream, don’t believe both those guys will be available at 22 and 28

agreed… but we can dream.

 

[tynimiller]

If you haven't seen the chart, how are you so quick to dismiss it? What about it do find unlikely?

I'm working from here: https://www.drafttek.com/NFL-Trade-Value-Chart.asp?RequestTeam=GB

Our two seconds are valued at 370 and 310 points each. In a perfect 1:1 situation, that matches #27 at 680 points.

27 is probably shooting too high. That pick is held by Tampa and I doubt they'd be willing to help a team they are likely to meet in the playoffs. 29-31 are held by AFC teams and we'd be slightly over paying, so they'd win the trade.



We're in a somewhat unique case of having 2 2nd round picks in the same year. Future year picks typically have reduced value in trades as you don't know where they will land.



This is pretty close. 22 and 53 would work out to about 13th if you get a perfect 1:1. Rebuilding Texans might like that deal. I'd tentatively be happy as well.

28 and 53 works out right between 15 and 16, both owned by the Eagles. I'd assume 15-19 would require a small overpay as these are all NFC teams that are potentially not as interested in helping us.

28 and 59 works out to between 16 and 17. Same issue as before, we'd likely have to overpay because the trade partner is an NFC team or be willing to slide down to 20 (Steelers.)

You have to also think of the teams holding the picks, Lions aren’t moving off theirs, Chiefs need there only pick and historically haven’t been a big top end trading GM. Buccs have too many similar weaknesses to us and a main competitor ain’t happening.

Also very rarely do you see the team moving up only have to give the same value per the “charts” as the pick they go get….only time that happens if a team giving up to move back needs more picks as they are missing some or a lot.

 

[mradtke66]

You have to also think of the teams holding the picks, Lions aren’t moving off theirs, Chiefs need there only pick and historically haven’t been a big top end trading GM. Buccs have too many similar weaknesses to us and a main competitor ain’t happening.

I'd be willing to accept that the Lions (division team) and Bucs (likely playoff opponent) might not make the trade, but that's not the same as a no-way from your initial reply.

Chiefs, Fins, and Bengals might be more interested. Just because they haven't, doesn't mean they won't.

I'm also not going to say the will either. It certainly takes both teams to swing the trade.

Also very rarely do you see the team moving up only have to give the same value per the “charts” as the pick they go get….only time that happens if a team giving up to move back needs more picks as they are missing some or a lot.

Chiefs, Fins, and Bengals would technically "win" the trade, if only by a handful of 10s of points. (It also assumes all teams in such a trade are using same-enough charts.)

It could also work out each of those teams don't like who's left on the board. They could be looking to trade down.

Alternative alternative: 53, 59, 92 would work out to 21 from the Pats. Bill loves his volumes of picks....

I'm also not saying we need to make these trades. If we like who's there when our original picks are on the clock, no need to trade. If the board starts to fall in a way that lets you get higher to get someone a tier or two left on your board? Don't be afraid to go get them.)

 

[tynimiller]

I'd be willing to accept that the Lions (division team) and Bucs (likely playoff opponent) might not make the trade, but that's not the same as a no-way from your initial reply.

Chiefs, Fins, and Bengals might be more interested. Just because they haven't, doesn't mean they won't.

I'm also not going to say the will either. It certainly takes both teams to swing the trade.




Chiefs, Fins, and Bengals would technically "win" the trade, if only by a handful of 10s of points. (It also assumes all teams in such a trade are using same-enough charts.)

It could also work out each of those teams don't like who's left on the board. They could be looking to trade down.

Alternative alternative: 53, 59, 92 would work out to 21 from the Pats. Bill loves his volumes of picks....

I'm also not saying we need to make these trades. If we like who's there when our original picks are on the clock, no need to trade. If the board starts to fall in a way that lets you get higher to get someone a tier or two left on your board? Don't be afraid to go get them.)

Go back over the years and test the trades from Day 1 and Day 2s - hold them to the charts. The charts have been changing and getting closer to “better” but still you may be surprised

 

[GreenNGold_81]

I think we gotta trade up in the first. Literally, every team knows we need a WR and if we want someone to fall to us we'll watch them go right at 21 to a team jumping us.

 

[tynimiller]

@mradtke66 I actually didn't want to spend a ton of time, but was curious of just the recent ones...here are some trades that were pure draft picks from last year I grabbed.

49ers send the Dolphins:
2021 First Round Pick (ends up the 12th) = 1200
2022 First Round Pick = Unknown due to standings, but lets be conservative and us 16th (middle) for value estimated 1000
2022 Third Round Pick = Same as above 190
2023 First Round Pick = 1000
Total Rough Estimation = 3390 points

All for the #3 pick. Now that #3 pick holds a value of 2200 per the chart you sent, which to be fair is one of my favorite ones out there.

Jets trade up nine spots from 23rd to 14th overall sending:

2021 First Round #23 = 760
2021 Third Round #66= 260
2021 Third Round #86= 160
TOTAL - 1180

FOR

2021 First Round #14 = 1100
2021 Fourth Round #143 = 34.5
TOTAL - 1134.5

DAY 2 Trade where Denver traded up from 40th to 35th, cost:

2021 Second Round #40 = 500
2021 Fourth Round #122 = 50
2021 Fourth Round #139 = 36.5
TOTAL - 586.5

FOR

2021 Second Round #35 =550
2021 Sixth Round #219 = 2
TOTAL - 552

Another Day 2 trade saw Browns trade up from 59 to 52 with carolina, cost:

2021 Second Round #59 = 310
2021 Third Round #89 = 145
TOTAL - 455

FOR

2021 Second Round #52 = 380
2021 Fourth Round #113 = 68
TOTAL - 448

Day 3 trade we did to move from 92 to 85, cost:

2021 Third Round #92 = 132
2021 Fourth Round #135 = 40
TOTAL - 172

FOR

2021 Third #85 = 165