Grade this draft

[RRyder]

Yeah, that was embarrassing, got my guns blazing and loaded up the wrong ammo! LOL......but I think you know what I meant on the confusing medical stuff. Jerry Jones is even saying Jaylon Smith won't start the season out on IR?

Listen to the video at the top of article:

http://espn.go.com/nfl/story/_/id/1...ick-jaylon-smith-begin-season-injured-reserve

If Jerry Jones tries to get Smith on the field this season he should just strait up be removed from making any more decisions ever again......

Scratch that love when they use top 4 picks on RBs

 

[Einstein McFly]

This is nuts guys. We have no idea who will become what this year or down the road. I don't know how many people thought that Mike Daniels would be as good as he is, or how many people heard of Nick Collins before he was drafted. Casey Hayward seemed like a reach at the time, a genius move in his rookie year, and a meh pick after that. How many people thought that picking Rodgers in '05 was going to be a genius franchise saving move?

People never seem to learn. JUST BECAUSE YOU'VE HEARD OF SOMEONE DOESN'T MEAN THEY'RE GOING TO BE A GOOD PRO. The Jags got lots of guys that people have heard of, so now they're darlings. They get lots of people that people have heard of every year because they always stink. It was the end of the world when the vikes took three first rounders a few years back, and everyone thought that Patterson was going to kill us year after year. Not so much. The other two guys are better (Rhodes is pretty good, but I'm not as high on Floyd as some) but it sure wasn't some watershed for them.

Yeah it sucks to wait and it's boring and it's way more fun to give out grades like the idiots online, but we won't know how to rate any of these guys (much less the whole draft) for a few years. Obvious. Boring. Truth.

 

[bigbubbatd]

It was the end of the world when the vikes took three first rounders a few years back, and everyone thought that Patterson was going to kill us year after year. Not so much. The other two guys are better (Rhodes is pretty good, but I'm not as high on Floyd as some) but it sure wasn't some watershed for them.

This wasn't your main point but Rhodes graded out very poorly by PFF last year. He had a great 2014,according to them but was significantly worse than any db who consistently played for gb. The top 6 in gbs secondary were 75 or higher and Rhodes was at 50

 

[TeamTundra]

Clark – I would have gone with another run stuffer – Reed. TT will probably be correct here. I was surprised that some scouts actually think Clark is a better run stuffer. This was our biggest need in my eyes going into the draft. And to our luck, the deepest position available. The biggest note that makes me think Clark is a better pick than my guy, is Clark is only 20 and appears to be still on the upswing. He should be good from the get go, and could very well develop into something special.

I like Jarran Reed, but he offers very little as a pass rusher as he only had two sacks in the past two years versus Clark's six sacks last year. In addition, Reed is almost three years older than Clark and will be 24 years old before the end of the 2016 season. Vernon Butler may have been an option, but he had almost twenty less tackles and three less sacks than Clark and is one year older.

There was also speculation that the Seahawks would have drafted Clark if he was still on the board at pick 31. I think he has the highest ceiling among the available defensive linemen when we picked.

 

[GreenBaySlacker]

I gave us an A because Clark is going to be a stud. Everyone acts like he was a reach??? These the same people who thought Billings would be our first pick? Or the other 2nd round DTs were somehow better than Clark?

I picked clark off the list right away. That without even knowing he was only 20 years old... He is a state Highschool wrestling champ. That's what I want in a DT/DE. And he is 6'3" 313 already... I seen his 2nd round grade and put him as a 2nd round option , as did everybody else... But the truth is he was a high 2nd round grade, and we picked late 1st... How is it a reach to get our guy when he surely would have been picked within the next 10 picks most likely? I see it as luck that he sort of flew in under the radar IMHO. Remember the African kid a half dozen years ago who was 19 years old? GMs went awol on his "potential". He went early-mid 1st if I remember right...... Now Clark earned that low 1st-high 2nd round grade. His age is a huge upside!!!!!!!!!!!!! And without even seeing him play, people call it a reach??? lol. He is going to destroy OTs 1 on 1. He is just as big as most OTs, and he has proven he can beat everyone in his weight class in his state at one point... So with Daniels wrecking the other tackle, and Mathews roaming. Peppers, Perry, Jones behind Clark. A secondary that will do their part. I think Clark will be forgotten. He will face 1 on 1s. and he will be an impact player from early on, until teams realize hye needs to be accounted for... Witch will open up the whole defense! He is going to be big for us...

Spriggs? He could be a blocking TE this year, he is so athletic. He could be Bahks replacement if he demands 10 mil. He is a legit Tackle back up, which is what took our offense to its knees last year...He IMO was a steal where we got him. Two 1st round talents in the first two rounds I think.

From there we added a 290+ DE to basicly retry the Datone Jones experiment (without spending a 1st)
A ILB that is apparently the best coverage LB out there, according to a few football heads.
Another great young Tackle prospect.
A OLB who might be a better ILB than OLB (IMO)
And a cherry on top we added a speedster WR. I don't remember the last WR we picked who ran 4.3s??? Or 4.4s for that matter. Im optimistic he will be a steal, judging by Thompsons record drafting WRs...

So in short our weaknesses were Oline (T), Dline, ILB, and a deep threat WR... We getr two Dline, two OTs and two LBs. and a 4.3s WR...

Picking 27th??? That's called an A.

 

[Patriotplayer90]

I gave us an A because Clark is going to be a stud. Everyone acts like he was a reach??? These the same people who thought Billings would be our first pick? Or the other 2nd round DTs were somehow better than Clark?

I picked clark off the list right away. That without even knowing he was only 20 years old... He is a state Highschool wrestling champ. That's what I want in a DT/DE. And he is 6'3" 313 already... I seen his 2nd round grade and put him as a 2nd round option , as did everybody else... But the truth is he was a high 2nd round grade, and we picked late 1st... How is it a reach to get our guy when he surely would have been picked within the next 10 picks most likely? I see it as luck that he sort of flew in under the radar IMHO. Remember the African kid a half dozen years ago who was 19 years old? GMs went awol on his "potential". He went early-mid 1st if I remember right...... Now Clark earned that low 1st-high 2nd round grade. His age is a huge upside!!!!!!!!!!!!! And without even seeing him play, people call it a reach??? lol. He is going to destroy OTs 1 on 1. He is just as big as most OTs, and he has proven he can beat everyone in his weight class in his state at one point... So with Daniels wrecking the other tackle, and Mathews roaming. Peppers, Perry, Jones behind Clark. A secondary that will do their part. I think Clark will be forgotten. He will face 1 on 1s. and he will be an impact player from early on, until teams realize hye needs to be accounted for... Witch will open up the whole defense! He is going to be big for us...

Spriggs? He could be a blocking TE this year, he is so athletic. He could be Bahks replacement if he demands 10 mil. He is a legit Tackle back up, which is what took our offense to its knees last year...He IMO was a steal where we got him. Two 1st round talents in the first two rounds I think.

From there we added a 290+ DE to basicly retry the Datone Jones experiment (without spending a 1st)
A ILB that is apparently the best coverage LB out there, according to a few football heads.
Another great young Tackle prospect.
A OLB who might be a better ILB than OLB (IMO)
And a cherry on top we added a speedster WR. I don't remember the last WR we picked who ran 4.3s??? Or 4.4s for that matter. Im optimistic he will be a steal, judging by Thompsons record drafting WRs...

So in short our weaknesses were Oline (T), Dline, ILB, and a deep threat WR... We getr two Dline, two OTs and two LBs. and a 4.3s WR...

Picking 27th??? That's called an A.

People keep mentioning Clark's age, but he looks every bit the part of a 20 year old as far as being a football player goes. He's shown he can bullrush weaker guys, but I've seen him handled in 1-on-1 matchups, in which case he has no other moves. He's got a lot to learn if he is supposed to be demanding double-teams.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

I like Jarran Reed, but he offers very little as a pass rusher as he only had two sacks in the past two years versus Clark's six sacks last year. In addition, Reed is almost three years older than Clark and will be 24 years old before the end of the 2016 season. Vernon Butler may have been an option, but he had almost twenty less tackles and three less sacks than Clark and is one year older.

There was also speculation that the Seahawks would have drafted Clark if he was still on the board at pick 31. I think he has the highest ceiling among the available defensive linemen when we picked.

I don't think the total number of tackles or sacks are a great way to compare college defensive lineman. While Clark was more productive rushing the passer than Reed and Butler he only created pressure with his bull rush, something that will be way tougher against offensive linemen in the NFL.

 

[bigbubbatd]

I don't think the total number of tackles or sacks are a great way to compare college defensive lineman. While Clark was more productive rushing the passer than Reed and Butler he only created pressure with his bull rush, something that will be way tougher against offensive linemen in the NFL.

Still better to have one way to get to the passed instead of zero ways. He needs another move for sure but ateast he has a base with which to work

 

[Deleted member 6794]

Still better to have one way to get to the passed instead of zero ways. He needs another move for sure but ateast he has a base with which to work

The other guys mentioned have a better repertoire of pass rushing moves while not offering a dominant one. Relying on a single move doesn't work in the NFL though.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

One negative after drafting that many players out of the Pac 12 is that Kenny Clark, Trevor Davis and Kyle Murphy won't be allowed to participate in OTAs until they have finished their degrees. Blake Martinez will stay in Green Bay though as he has already earned his.

http://jsonline.com/sports/blogs/378517365.html

 

[GreenBaySlacker]

The other guys mentioned have a better repertoire of pass rushing moves while not offering a dominant one. Relying on a single move doesn't work in the NFL though.

The ability to take a 310 pound OT and push him into the QBs lap, is the one move you cant teach.

 

[Patriotplayer90]

I don't think the total number of tackles or sacks are a great way to compare college defensive lineman. While Clark was more productive rushing the passer than Reed and Butler he only created pressure with his bull rush, something that will be way tougher against offensive linemen in the NFL.

Especially when you take into account that half of his career sacks were in 1 game vs. Washington State. Reed was subbed out on passing downs, which doesn't say much for him, but I would imagine he could have mustered up a few more if he were in all 3 downs.

 

[sschind]

It´s astounding to me that after Thompson spend five of seven draft picks on the three positions in most dire need of an upgrade that someone would claim position of need didn´t factor into the selections.

No really, they just happened to be the best players available at the time. Heck of a coincidence isn't it?

The thing is most fans who agree that BPA is the way to go have a hard time admitting their GM doesn't follow this policy by the book. They don't want to think he allows need to factor in because that would mean he isn't doing his job correctly. In reality I am sure need factors into where players fall on the board. If you have two players you consider are equal the one who plays the position of higher need is probably considered the better player for you. If you take that guy are you drafting for need or are you truly taking the best player? Probably a little of both.

 

[sschind]

It is rare that there is only one BPA at the Packers pick. I never said that need didnt factor in, only that quality is not compromised.

The very definition of "best" says this is not true. If a guy is the best no one can be as good as him. Yes they can have a best linebacker and a best lineman and a best TE but only one of them can be the best player. Where I think people get confused is that they insist that "best" in this case means just that. The best athlete, the best player, the best odds at being a success when in reality best also takes into consideration what is best for the team and in that case need has to factor in. How else do you explain Tunsil's fall? Was he not the BPA for at least 10 of the teams drafting in front of the Dolphins? I say at least 10 because some may have had Ramsey or someone else ahead of him but probably not more than 3 teams. He fell because at the time 10 of those GMs (Rams and Eagles already made up their minds) thought that he was not the best player for their team. Not that he wasn't the best player. So while he was still probably the best player available he wasn't the best for them.

The whole idea of a GM having a ranking system where several guys have equal grades and you take the one of greater need was developed because people wanted to rationalize why the (the GMs) didn't adhere strictly to the BPA theory and seemed to be drafting for need which is something good GMs never do. In reality it was most likely always that way and it just took a while to figure out that BPA didn't mean the same to the GM as it meant to the media and the fans.

 

[RRyder]

The tier system that GMs use has been explained so many times that it's impressive that people still think prospects are ranked in a 1-253 type way

 

[sschind]

The tier system that GMs use has been explained so many times that it's impressive that people still think prospects are ranked in a 1-253 type way

I agree but it wan't always like that. As recently as 4 or 5 years ago I think a lot of people were thinking along the 1-253 route and I think a lot of them still do. How else do you explain all the "he didn't take the BPA" or the "that was a total need pick" crying that goes on.

Bottom line is GMs, for the most part, draft the BPA and need is one factor in determining who that BPA is.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

The ability to take a 310 pound OT and push him into the QBs lap, is the one move you cant teach.

NFL offensive linemen are way stronger than a lot of college players, so relying on the bull rush only to create pressure will most likely not result in a lot of success.

How else do you explain Tunsil's fall? Was he not the BPA for at least 10 of the teams drafting in front of the Dolphins? I say at least 10 because some may have had Ramsey or someone else ahead of him but probably not more than 3 teams. He fell because at the time 10 of those GMs (Rams and Eagles already made up their minds) thought that he was not the best player for their team. Not that he wasn't the best player. So while he was still probably the best player available he wasn't the best for them.

The video posted on Tunsil's Twitter account showing him while smoking pot probably had something to do with him dropping to the Dolphins.

Bottom line is GMs, for the most part, draft the BPA and need is one factor in determining who that BPA is.

That's why I like to use selecting the player presenting the best value to a team as the best draft approach.

 

[sschind]

The video posted on Tunsil's Twitter account showing him while smoking pot probably had something to do with him dropping to the Dolphins.

Of course it did. The video did nothing to alter the fact that he was still probably one of the best players in the draft and he was almost certainly the best player available at #13. All it did was alter 10 GM's perspectives of whether he still fit their need with the perceived added risk. I say perceived added risk because IMO there was absolutely no added risk what so ever. I doubt if all 12 GMs picking before the Dolphins had Tunsil rated as the 13th best player in the draft. GMs drafting with a strict BPA philosophy would not have let him drop to #13. 10 GMs decided the added risk did not fit their need or at least 8 of them since a few may have had other players rated higher.

That's where your value pick comes into play.

 

[sschind]

That's why I like to use selecting the player presenting the best value to a team as the best draft approach.

I agree but just to be clear best value is not the same as best player?

 

[Patriotplayer90]

The only place that I was unhappy was Round 1, not that he isn't a good talent but it was so deep at that position at this point, and there were players available in other positions that were also of need.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

I agree but just to be clear best value is not the same as best player?

Selecting a player presenting the best value to a team includes position of need as a factor. Drafting the best player available doesn't in my opinion.

 

[AmishMafia]

The whole idea of a GM having a ranking system where several guys have equal grades and you take the one of greater need was developed because people wanted to rationalize why the (the GMs) didn't adhere strictly to the BPA theory and seemed to be drafting for need which is something good GMs never do. In reality it was most likely always that way and it just took a while to figure out that BPA didn't mean the same to the GM as it meant to the media and the fans.

No, that isnt where I got my understanding of the term BPA. It came from listening to various GMs including TT, Bill Polian, Gill Brandt, and Charlie Casserly and others who have described how teams go about drafting and ranking players. TT doesnt explain it, but if you listen to what he does say, and understand BPA, his comments will make complete sense.

 

[easyk83]

The only place that I was unhappy was Round 1, not that he isn't a good talent but it was so deep at that position at this point, and there were players available in other positions that were also of need.

I get this but Clarke probably had the best upside as a 0/1 tech. Kid looks like hes purpose built for that position.

McGinn has a good article up about med evals and the role they play. According to Bob our west coast guy wanted Myles Jack if he was available, but he didn't have the med reports whereas Wolf and TT did.

The article talked about how they used to use a rating system of 1-4 with 1 being great health and 4 being no go. Ron Wolf occasionally took fliers on guys rated at 3, none of them panned out. Mcginn suggested that Jack would have been a 3.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

I get this but Clarke probably had the best upside as a 0/1 tech. Kid looks like hes purpose built for that position.

While Clark is capable of playing nose tackle his best fit is most likely as a defensive end in a 3-4. Reed and Billings are better suited to line up directly across the center.

 

[Patriotplayer90]

While Clark is capable of playing nose tackle his best fit is most likely as a defensive end in a 3-4. Reed and Billings are better suited to line up directly across the center.

That's the problem I have. I hear all these reports about how DE is his best fit, and all he does is bull rush and show little to no athleticism other than decent straight line speed. If he's not cut out to be a NT, I'm questioning this pick. Space occupier is really the only thing his tape suggests.