Good Bye J’aire Alexander

[Heyjoe4]

To be fair, even those that are done with him also have only ever wanted that Jaire.

Take away the injury history and he's a top 5 corner, a shutdown corner. Is age catching up with him? Well sure but he relies on his wits at corner as much as his ability.

 

[gopkrs]

What's high to you? Just curious...I mean of course the right prospect falls to Gute, he's hitting the button to the pick everytime but just curious in general if Jaire is here what is your opinion of high?

Tough question. Depends on how the chips fall. Who's available. In the first only if Barron or the Michigan corner is there. I guess I consider 1 2 and 3 early. But that doesn't mean I definitely want a corner then. It's just that I would not complain.

 

[Schultz]

Pike like many have just grown tired of Jaire's approach and mentality also, it isn't just injuries for many - which I understand even if I disagree somewhat.

However, the answer is clearly right now two of the three of Valentine/Hobbs/Nixon would be the outside starters likely right now...that could change if a CB is drafted and comes in and plays well. Odds are if we don't have Jaire on the team by the draft we execute a top 150 pick on one likely...if he is I could see us drafting a lone late rounder.

I do not see any corners left when pick #87 comes around that would be any real help this year. I really hope they work things out with Jaire.

 

[tynimiller]

Tough question. Depends on how the chips fall. Who's available. In the first only if Barron or the Michigan corner is there. I guess I consider 1 2 and 3 early. But that doesn't mean I definitely want a corner then. It's just that I would not complain.

I typically picture Day2 or higher when saying it too - seems we concur there.

 

[tynimiller]

I do not see any corners left when pick #87 comes around that would be any real help this year. I really hope they work things out with Jaire.

It all depends....mixture of my board, consensus and others a few names I might be convinced could:

Jacob Parrish - his size is smaller than you'd like height wise but his arm length is better than you'd think, but his hips are insanely quick and change of direction is elite...he will get out jumped for balls but positioning is more than 80% of the position many say and he can do that. I think he is more slot at NFL level but he played a TON of wide in college and at senior bowl in one on ones shined.

Mac McWilliams...built a lot like Jaire and a guy I'm high on compared to many - excellent senior bowl and career at UCF

Denzel Burke - dude has been a roller coaster at Ohio State...but one thing is for certain he has seen big games, he has won and lost to big WRs...

Quincy Riley - a guy rumored to have had numerous conversations with Packer coaches at various events is another slightly shorter candidate but has that solider frame to go with it.

Tommi Hill - is truly a wild card...has not been able to do testing with a foot issue, but dude weighed in at senior bowl at 210lbs over 6 foot - just a SOLID bodied CB. I've seen some have him in their top 100 and others he is close to 200.

 

[Schultz]

It all depends....mixture of my board, consensus and others a few names I might be convinced could:

Jacob Parrish - his size is smaller than you'd like height wise but his arm length is better than you'd think, but his hips are insanely quick and change of direction is elite...he will get out jumped for balls but positioning is more than 80% of the position many say and he can do that. I think he is more slot at NFL level but he played a TON of wide in college and at senior bowl in one on ones shined.

Mac McWilliams...built a lot like Jaire and a guy I'm high on compared to many - excellent senior bowl and career at UCF

Denzel Burke - dude has been a roller coaster at Ohio State...but one thing is for certain he has seen big games, he has won and lost to big WRs...

Quincy Riley - a guy rumored to have had numerous conversations with Packer coaches at various events is another slightly shorter candidate but has that solider frame to go with it.

Tommi Hill - is truly a wild card...has not been able to do testing with a foot issue, but dude weighed in at senior bowl at 210lbs over 6 foot - just a SOLID bodied CB. I've seen some have him in their top 100 and others he is close to 200.

Let me preface this by saying you are way more knowledgeable than I am and put in way more time. I also enjoy the discourse. I consider Parrish a slot corner. Burke is like King was last year. Mix of good and bad. If he drops to day 3 I consider worth a shot. Riley to me is a nickel back. Hill 6th rounder and not immediate help. McWilliams is slot to me also and 6th or later. I am speaking of outside corners. I am not sure any of your guys would be an improvement over the young backups they currently have. IMO.

 

[tynimiller]

Let me preface this by saying you are way more knowledgeable than I am and put in way more time. I also enjoy the discourse. I consider Parrish a slot corner. Burke is like King was last year. Mix of good and bad. If he drops to day 3 I consider worth a shot. Riley to me is a nickel back. Hill 6th rounder and not immediate help. McWilliams is slot to me also and 6th or later. I am speaking of outside corners. I am not sure any of your guys would be an improvement over the young backups they currently have. IMO.

I concur on your thoughts on Parrish, of those listed he is by far the best for sure, the others were merely guys I think if you pegged me to have to pick with our third I'd have to consider - the only guy I'd label a "my guy" of these is for sure Mac, I am a big believer in him.

Burke could end up never playing a snap or be a ten year starter type guy to me...his film is literally both ends which is scary.

Riley will play outside I think unless a team is forced to move him inside.

A name I didn't mention that I think might shock some folks with how soon he goes besides Hill (dude straight up is on some top10 CB lists of guys I RESPECT way more than myself lol) and that is Jason Marshall Jr from Florida. His testing is excellent, his film is better than many dudes above him...I've not discovered any character flags that explain why he isn't getting more love. I love Corners who can hold their own in man because I feel zone can always be taught and football IQ and process taught to an extent...man coverage of dog vs dog is massively mental as well and Jason is built for that.

 

[Heyjoe4]

I concur on your thoughts on Parrish, of those listed he is by far the best for sure, the others were merely guys I think if you pegged me to have to pick with our third I'd have to consider - the only guy I'd label a "my guy" of these is for sure Mac, I am a big believer in him.

Burke could end up never playing a snap or be a ten year starter type guy to me...his film is literally both ends which is scary.

Riley will play outside I think unless a team is forced to move him inside.

A name I didn't mention that I think might shock some folks with how soon he goes besides Hill (dude straight up is on some top10 CB lists of guys I RESPECT way more than myself lol) and that is Jason Marshall Jr from Florida. His testing is excellent, his film is better than many dudes above him...I've not discovered any character flags that explain why he isn't getting more love. I love Corners who can hold their own in man because I feel zone can always be taught and football IQ and process taught to an extent...man coverage of dog vs dog is massively mental as well and Jason is built for that.

Sure seems like there are some good options at CB. Maybe not day 1 starters, but if JA comes back and plays, that won't matter as much.

I began saying during last season that JA had to go. But that was the frustrated fan in me. Is he injury prone? Not sure. But something for us all to think about - if he gets cut, then the Packers get nothing for him. It just seems like the potential reward in bringing him back is bigger than the risk of letting him go.

 

[tynimiller]

Sure seems like there are some good options at CB. Maybe not day 1 starters, but if JA comes back and plays, that won't matter as much.

I began saying during last season that JA had to go. But that was the frustrated fan in me. Is he injury prone? Not sure. But something for us all to think about - if he gets cut, then the Packers get nothing for him. It just seems like the potential reward in bringing him back is bigger than the risk of letting him go.

Eh yes and no on the first part - this draft has a lot of good CBs but I'd argue is very weak on true blue high caliber outside corners. A ton of guys I'd rather see inside and that I think could be really good inside...but that outside CB with prototypical 6 foot or so on a 190lb frame is limited.

 

[Heyjoe4]

Eh yes and no on the first part - this draft has a lot of good CBs but I'd argue is very weak on true blue high caliber outside corners. A ton of guys I'd rather see inside and that I think could be really good inside...but that outside CB with prototypical 6 foot or so on a 190lb frame is limited.

And the Packers need outside help at corner. I do see the value in a guy without great height, like 5'10 or 5'11 who is fast and has flexible hips and can run with a receiver. Yes a guy like that will lose jump balls to taller WRs. But how many completions are jump balls?

It's just a lousy year to need a CB, and the Packers need a CB. Again, I have enough faith in Gluten that he'll do whatever is best, while juggling needs at iDL, Edge, and WR. Does that mean the Packers will have a great CB group? Probably not this year.

 

[Schultz]

I concur on your thoughts on Parrish, of those listed he is by far the best for sure, the others were merely guys I think if you pegged me to have to pick with our third I'd have to consider - the only guy I'd label a "my guy" of these is for sure Mac, I am a big believer in him.

Burke could end up never playing a snap or be a ten year starter type guy to me...his film is literally both ends which is scary.

Riley will play outside I think unless a team is forced to move him inside.

A name I didn't mention that I think might shock some folks with how soon he goes besides Hill (dude straight up is on some top10 CB lists of guys I RESPECT way more than myself lol) and that is Jason Marshall Jr from Florida. His testing is excellent, his film is better than many dudes above him...I've not discovered any character flags that explain why he isn't getting more love. I love Corners who can hold their own in man because I feel zone can always be taught and football IQ and process taught to an extent...man coverage of dog vs dog is massively mental as well and Jason is built for that.

Dude you kill me. I had Slater as my day 3 OL steal then he shows up on your top 100. I typed Marshall as my day 3 corner then deleted to save him for my Amish draft contest pick. The only flaw with him for me is his play against the run. That needs improvement.

 

[tynimiller]

Dude you kill me. I had Slater as my day 3 OL steal then he shows up on your top 100. I typed Marshall as my day 3 corner then deleted to save him for my Amish draft contest pick. The only flaw with him for me is his play against the run. That needs improvement.

Slater will be a two or three contract guard in the NFL IMO. He is good.

 

[PackerDNA]

Sure seems like there are some good options at CB. Maybe not day 1 starters, but if JA comes back and plays, that won't matter as much.

I began saying during last season that JA had to go. But that was the frustrated fan in me. Is he injury prone? Not sure. But something for us all to think about - if he gets cut, then the Packers get nothing for him. It just seems like the potential reward in bringing him back is bigger than the risk of letting him go.

Here's the thing about Ja that I seen several times over in various sites. That he's a good guy a good team guy but when he started getting injured a lot he kept pushing through the injuries and getting hurt again. All he got for that was knocked, so he got to a point where he said you know what I'm not taking a field again less than 100%. I think he's a good guy a good team guy a great player and we need to find a way to keep him and roll the dice on his health. If our two biggest accomplishments this off season are getting rid of one of our best players and trying to ban the **** push, then this is just a second or third tier team in organization that talks a lot about winning championships but it's full of s***

 

[gopkrs]

He did try to play in the playoffs or just before and just couldn't go. But he knew he had a whole offseason to get well. I hope that happens. It does not make any sense to go out their injured during the regular season unless the doc says it definitely can't get worse.

 

[PikeBadger]

I think the true wild card in the CB equation is.... what does Packers staff and management think about the young non starters on the roster. Do they feel they have any potential starting caliber CB's after what they saw of them last year?

 

[Heyjoe4]

Here's the thing about Ja that I seen several times over in various sites. That he's a good guy a good team guy but when he started getting injured a lot he kept pushing through the injuries and getting hurt again. All he got for that was knocked, so he got to a point where he said you know what I'm not taking a field again less than 100%. I think he's a good guy a good team guy a great player and we need to find a way to keep him and roll the dice on his health. If our two biggest accomplishments this off season are getting rid of one of our best players and trying to ban the **** push, then this is just a second or third tier team in organization that talks a lot about winning championships but it's full of s***

Good points on JA, and agreed.

It sure seems like Gluten's strategy for the offseason is to (mostly) stand pat and use the draft to address needs. I do like the addition of Banks and even Hobbs, certainly not jumping up and down though. I don't like that he let Slaton get away or that he couldn't find a way to make a trade for Metcalf or Hendrickson. On that last point, and in his defense, the price in terms of draft capital and $$$ were simply too high. That seems true For Metcalf given the seemingly huge contract he got in Pitt. Something may still happen with Hendrickson, but the chances are very slim. (And FWIW, Myles Garrett was blowing smoke with his "insistence" on playing for a contender when all he wanted was money.)

Truth is though, Gluten had little to work with other than, ironically, cap space. The FA market was very weak at WR and CB, two big need areas for the Packers. I feel good that Gluten can address Edge and DL in the draft, given the wealth of talent at those positions. WR and CB? That's just gonna be tough. I don't like the idea of simply "running it back" with the current roster and FA/draft additions. Again his hands are kinda tied just based on a lack of supply at positions of need.

So without his usual arsenal of picks, this will have to be his best draft, even better than last year. IMO, the 2025 season may not provide enough opportunity for this team to make a deep playoff run. No one wants to wait another year, or wait at all. The team will be competitive and fun to watch, as usual. Expectations just need to be adjusted a bit, and hey, maybe the team will surprise us.

 

[Heyjoe4]

I think the true wild card in the CB equation is.... what does Packers staff and management think about the young non starters on the roster. Do they feel they have any potential starting caliber CB's after what they saw of them last year?

Good point Pike. Guys get buried on the bench and so rarely get a chance to show what they can do. Realistically, it's gonna be hard to address the CB group with the draft alone. FA didn't offer much.

This should create a very competitive camp for corners. Nothing wrong with that.

 

[swhitset]

Partially true. His inability to be game day available over the last 3 years has worn thin with me. I've never been impressed with his on field demeanor. It smacks of unprofessional behavior imo. I prefer mature and professional personalities. Call me crazy I guess.

In most cases, I agree with your perspective. Jaire just doesn’t quite fit that mold to me. I certainly understand your frustration with him, but for some reason I just don’t think he does this stuff intentionally. I actually think he sincerely wants to be an integral player with the Packers… he just happens to have a fairly simple mind combined with a colorful personality. His injury history, however, doesn’t inspire confidence that he will be there when you need him.

 

[Magooch]

I saw the other day Schefter was claiming that we're still holding out for a trade partner but nothing's appearing and it's trending toward just a release or something like that. Gotta be honest, I don't really get that. I am far from a cap expert but my understanding is that we're basically looking at a savings of ~7m if we cut or trade Jaire. About a 25m cap hit if we keep him, but 17m ish in dead cap if we cut or trade pre-june 1, or around that number across 25/26 if we process it post-June 1.

So, like I said, not an accountant or cap wizard but my simple math makes it seem like no matter how you slice it you're looking at about 17m of dead cap or "sunk cost" and the best you can hope for is to save something like 7m in total. And IMO even assuming he doesn't play every game, the value Jaire brings to you if he can play - even on a less-than-17-games-basis - is still worth more than the savings you would get from a release at this point. Like, if you can get some sort of return in a trade, I could get on board, but at this point I wouldn't bother with a straight release IMO. But maybe Schefty is just talking nonsense too lol

 

[SudsMcBucky]

I saw the other day Schefter was claiming that we're still holding out for a trade partner but nothing's appearing and it's trending toward just a release or something like that. Gotta be honest, I don't really get that. I am far from a cap expert but my understanding is that we're basically looking at a savings of ~7m if we cut or trade Jaire. About a 25m cap hit if we keep him, but 17m ish in dead cap if we cut or trade pre-june 1, or around that number across 25/26 if we process it post-June 1.

So, like I said, not an accountant or cap wizard but my simple math makes it seem like no matter how you slice it you're looking at about 17m of dead cap or "sunk cost" and the best you can hope for is to save something like 7m in total. And IMO even assuming he doesn't play every game, the value Jaire brings to you if he can play - even on a less-than-17-games-basis - is still worth more than the savings you would get from a release at this point. Like, if you can get some sort of return in a trade, I could get on board, but at this point I wouldn't bother with a straight release IMO. But maybe Schefty is just talking nonsense too lol

That's not correct. You'd be adding $16MM in salary for 2025 which would be additional dollars he hasn't been paid. If he IS cut, and I'm not necessarily advocating for that, it would DEFINITELY be post 6/1 designation. That would save $10MM in 2025 cap.

 

[OldSchool101]

And, historically, that seems to be Gutey's strength. Zach Tom and Evan Williams, a couple of day three picks, leap to mind.

I’ve noticed that. We tend to do really well with the utilization of draft selection RD4-6 area. We’re Ok ish to good in RD1, Good to great in RD2, subpar RD3. Yet the guys RD4-6 area seems to be a respectable 50/50 hit rate. If we can trade back a few spots into an AFC team, picking up some combo of 4th or 5ths I think we land another rotational Evan Williams level DB or Dobbs level WR or TJ type DL etc. that gives another position group a boost.

 

[OldSchool101]

That's not correct. You'd be adding $16MM in salary for 2025 which would be additional dollars he hasn't been paid. If he IS cut, and I'm not necessarily advocating for that, it would DEFINITELY be post 6/1 designation. That would save $10MM in 2025 cap.

Yes. He also has a Roster bonus due any day now, like predraft. Now it’s only like $700K+ but it’s still substantial.
The longer we wait the more he costs. But I’m like you it may just be better to bet on JA playing 11+ games. That’s imo where the value meter is.

If you get 9-10 games it doesn’t hurt that bad. If you get 12,13,15 games etc it’s a total Win imo. Just a hunch he’ll play 12+

I’ll just add that I’m proud of JA for remaining like a Mouse with all the stories circulating. He’s rolled up his sleeves and preparing properly and motivating others. That speaks to me I like hearing this, love people who speak through action, not words.

 

[Heyjoe4]

Partially true. His inability to be game day available over the last 3 years has worn thin with me. I've never been impressed with his on field demeanor. It smacks of unprofessional behavior imo. I prefer mature and professional personalities. Call me crazy I guess.

Hey Pike. You raise a good point about JA, healthy or not. He behaves like a high school hot shot football player trying to impress...... I don't know, a girl in the stands, his buddies, it doesn't matter. At best, it shows a lack of maturity in a guy well into his 20s.

At worst though, it affects the team. A good example was his childish prank of acting like a team captain for a coin flip. He had no business being out there, and his one game suspension hurt the team.

I've posted recently that I hope he's back healthy this year, and I still feel that way. Immature or not, he's a helluva corner, and he currently has zero trade value. He needs to heal physically, and I think he will. He also needs to grow up and show some leadership. In his case, that's a much bigger ask. If the position coaches or the HC can't make him see that, well then maybe it is better for the Packers to move on.

 

[Thirteen Below]

So without his usual arsenal of picks, this will have to be his best draft, even better than last year.

Which is why I really believe a 1st round trade-back is likely. He's going to want a lot more than 8 picks this year, more than ever.

IMO, the 2025 season may not provide enough opportunity for this team to make a deep playoff run. No one wants to wait another year, or wait at all. The team will be competitive and fun to watch, as usual. Expectations just need to be adjusted a bit, and hey, maybe the team will surprise us.

Just our damned bad luck that at the point where we finally built the best Packer teams in a decade, the Vikings became a legitimate tender and the Lions became one of the top 2 or 3 teams in the league.

Bastards.

 

[PackerDNA]

So once again we're going to fix everything in the draft. Cracks me up with here and other places well we'll just pick a wide receiver or an offensive lineman in the third fourth round. What are the odds that a guy being any good or helping you immediately. Better yet give me a name who's going to be available in the third or fourth round. Forget that you don't know he's going to be any good you don't even know who the hell is going to be available.