Good Bye J’aire Alexander

[PikeBadger]

Agree. Any trade offers for him would involve us paying for a good portion of his salary. Imo, his market value blows chunks right now.

 

[weeds]

https://x.com/FootbaIIism/status/1697282351053541568?t=EJjk_BtVjpJMXapRZcnKGQ&s=19

I had NEVER seen that one and it's funny as hell. Ok... I think I like that kid. Now we have to keep him.

 

[weeds]

Poker paid a big chunk of my tuition (along with blackjack). But I don't think I would want to sit across the table from Russ Ball

Mine was scholarships. Ok so maybe I exaggerate a hundred million gazillion trillion times per nanosecond... but I DID drink free for 5 years.

 

[DoURant]

I had NEVER seen that one and it's funny as hell. Ok... I think I like that kid. Now we have to keep him.

I'm just a big Jaire fan, he is a great player, when not injured. I'm hoping they try to make it work this year, and he can stay healthy.

 

[PikeBadger]

Poker paid a big chunk of my tuition (along with blackjack). But I don't think I would want to sit across the table from Russ Ball

Agree. I'd be a hard pass on that. For spectators only in my case.

 

[SudsMcBucky]

I'm just a big Jaire fan, he is a great player, when not injured. I'm hoping they try to make it work this year, and he can stay healthy.

If that were the case, yeah, that'd be ideal. However, the only reason we're even having that discussion is because it's been far from the case.

 

[El Guapo]

If we can't rely on our starting CB to be available, then we have a problem. It's been a problem for years.

 

[tynimiller]

If we can't rely on our starting CB to be available, then we have a problem. It's been a problem for years.

To be fair though we do know we have our starting CBs from last year who started the majority of the season without Jaire. That is before Hobbs addition, growth and who knows what the draft puts forth.

 

[El Guapo]

To be fair though we do know we have our starting CBs from last year who started the majority of the season without Jaire. That is before Hobbs addition, growth and who knows what the draft puts forth.

You're confusing the points. Jaire has been one of our starting CBs on the depth chart, but has only been able to play in 50% of the games over the last four years - 44% if you factor in games that he couldn't finish due to injury.

That is the problem, period. The Packers can't pay someone to be an elite, starting CB and not have him be on the field most of the time.

If you want to discuss the other players in the DB room, that is a related but separate conversation. The guys that started in Jaire's place last season are not good enough for the Packers to go deep into the playoffs. That makes the initial problem worse.

 

[Thirteen Below]

If you want to discuss the other players in the DB room, that is a related but separate conversation. The guys that started in Jaire's place last season are not good enough for the Packers to go deep into the playoffs. That makes the initial problem worse.

Yeah; the roster and the salary structure of the team are both built around the assumption that Jaire is going to be starting almost every game all season long. If I understand his contract, we're paying him $17M this year, in base salary and workout bonus. That's $17M that's not available to hire a different CB to take his snaps if he's injured. That's a pretty big slice of the salary cap to **** away for absolutely no return, when we have so many other needs.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

That is the problem, period. The Packers can't pay someone to be an elite, starting CB and not have him be on the field most of the time.

While I agree that it sucks to have to pay JA, the problem is, much of his back pay is on the books still and no matter what, the Packers are paying for it via cap hits. That said, the bottom line decision for the Packers is this; "Do they want to add what amounts to $17M new dollars on their cap, to have JA on the roster in 2025?"

If he plays all 20 games, he is probably well worth it.

If he plays 1 game, they should have dumped him.

How much will his replacement cost?

How will his replacement play?

Will his replacement get hurt?

What will Gute's crystal ball say?

 

[El Guapo]

There isn't much they can do except to draft and hope that Jaire can stay healthy.

 

[Heyjoe4]

Not at all, ya &*%)(#$_#_@!!!

I am saying that IF, the Packers could work out a new contract with JA, even if they have to carry the potential $10.5M in game bonuses against the cap, that would be better than getting locked into his current base salaries of $16.5M (2025) and $18.5M in 2026 as counting against the cap. Or am I missing something?

Not to mention that if he got injured, they could cut him and not be locked into those base salaries. I guess the NFL makes sure that you can't have your cake and eat it to. I am fine with that. I do believe that if he didn't play in 6 games, the $3M in possible game incentives that he wasn't given, could be excluded from the cap numbers for the next season. I could be wrong on that, I will ask Russ Ball at Poker on Friday night.

Gluten won't be spending a lot more in FA, the talent just isn't there. So barring a trade for a guy like Hendrickson, it would make sense for all to restructure JA's deal with $10 plus mil in incentives. If JA returns to form and earns the incentives, that's a win for all. If JA doesn't return to form, they release him and save the $10 mil for next season. (I hope I have that right.)

If that's what you're getting at, it makes sense. And what else is JA going to do but accept it? Teams aren't going to be begging Gluten to trade him. I'd much rather see him return to form. The CB group needs it.

 

[mradtke66]

Gluten won't be spending a lot more in FA, the talent just isn't there. So barring a trade for a guy like Hendrickson, it would make sense for all to restructure JA's deal with $10 plus mil in incentives. If JA returns to form and earns the incentives, that's a win for all. If JA doesn't return to form, they release him and save the $10 mil for next season. (I hope I have that right.)

If that's what you're getting at, it makes sense. And what else is JA going to do but accept it? Teams aren't going to be begging Gluten to trade him. I'd much rather see him return to form. The CB group needs it.

There is little reason for JA to accept a restructure. Either we pay him his 17m salary or we cut him. If he’s cut, he’ll probably make more this year than 17m.

Even if he just gets the same contract we have Hobbs, which was pretty team friendly, he’d make take in over 18m in cash.

 

[OldSchool101]

This is also possible, but he already has 2 years plus a void year. He already counts for 5.5m in 2025 and 26, with another 2.3m of proration in the void year.

Without adding any more years, he’ll be 30 when the contract voids.

What kind of contract makes sense if the biggest worry is his injury/availability?

Well technically none, but that’s where things get illusive. No one can predict he’d miss = time to the last 2 seasons. For all we know he could play in 15+ games this year. So technically his $25mil hit is reasonable. I think I saw it’s #5 for CB’s which if he’s playing is about spot on imo. Either way we lose. Either cut him loose and pay $18.12mil for no play whatsoever OR you add that $7mil back into the pot and just roll with him and just maybe .. maybe we’ve got a silver lining here. Recall that his Cap hit has been figured in all along. He’s was under contract. He is under contract. He potentially will be under contract. Nothing has really changed as he’s been in the math all along, but as with many things, time heals this.

If I’m correct and maybe I’m not, we might lose either way, but keeping him we have a 50/50 chance of a very Good starting CB playing 2/3 season. Those don’t grow on trees. The only way I’d part ways is if I got a 4th Rounder or better or a pick swap like a 3rd for our 4th etc. a 4th and $7mil I can live with that. Theres my LB or 3rd TE etc.

It’s really not nearly as much hair ball as some other contracts around the league. If JA plays 11-12+ games I’d call this a break even from a risk point, just my gut. Next 2026 season gets easier to trade/cut with a $17.1mil cap savings.

 

[OldSchool101]

So id pose this thought. What about IF JA bounced back and we got 14+ games + playoffs at top ~10 CB productivity? Would JA be worth more or less than today?

 

[tynimiller]

So id pose this thought. What about IF JA bounced back and we got 14+ games + playoffs at top ~10 CB productivity? Would JA be worth more or less than today?

A ton more, everyone knows he’s elite IF playing

 

[OldSchool101]

A ton more, everyone knows he’s elite IF playing

Precisely. He still would not be the highest paid with all the contracts resetting. He might not even be top 5 highest CB $ next year. He’s not a deal contract wise, but he’s not overpaid IF on the field.

 

[XPack]

Restructure his control and make it more of pay as play. When fit, he's still good. No more elite pay.

 

[tynimiller]

Restructure his control and make it more of pay as play. When fit, he's still good. No more elite pay.

I fully understand this sentiment and thought but his contract situation doesn’t have a ton of stuff we can do without him agreeing too…unless someone wants to push a ton of void money forward which is not right either.

 

[OldSchool101]

I fully understand this sentiment and thought but his contract situation doesn’t have a ton of stuff we can do without him agreeing too…unless someone wants to push a ton of void money forward which is not right either.

Yes thats very true. Guaranteed is guaranteed as Poker pointed out.
One advantage of these bigger contracts is they are punishing early in, so yes we push our cap hits into future years and yes it’s sunk. However, as you know, with each successive passing year those annual average payouts level off relating to league increases and level the financial debit credit balance sheet. JA deal is quickly morphing into a value contract as it nears its end. We just saw it, a $30Mil annual handed out at CB in 2025. So while JA’s $17mil n change added sounds like a lot. It’s barely a top 20 CB deal in real time.

I say all this because I initially wanted to toss him. Then I started asking myself? are we going to get better play at CB than JA for $17mil? Our only shot imo is at #23 overall and it’s an outside shot in a Rookie season, not to mention it’s pinning us into a Corner literally ! Pun intended.

 

[Curly Calhoun]

Unless the relationship between the team and Jaire is truly in shambles it would be foolish to just cut him. His availability is a problem but not his ability. You don't just let an asset like that walk out the door and get nothing in return.

How much did the Rams get for Cooper Kupp?

I might be wrong; it wouldn't be the first time - but my guess is that Alexander will be cut. I think the packers are done with him and wish to be done with his contract. I think the rest of the league knows that and aren't going to give up assets for a player that they could sign off the street.

Time will tell.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

not to mention it’s pinning us into a Corner literally ! Pun intended.

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[Schultz]

I have been thinking about the saying "comparing apples to oranges". Does it point out that those 2 things are different or is one supposed to be better than the other? For instance, AR was traded for a nice package. So was DA. Since AR was a QB and DA a WR, it is not fair to compare their trades equally. GB got a bunch of apples for AR and a bunch of oranges for DA. Or vice-versa depending on your taste. IMO Gute has decided JA is worth more than some bruised pears at this point.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

IMO Gute has decided JA is worth more than some bruised pears at this point.

Pretty much or....sour grapes.