Good Bye J’aire Alexander

[OldSchool101]

Getting his cap number that low is bordering on impossible. Roughly 8M of his cap hit is signing bonus, ie, money that has already been paid. You now have to come up with a way to reduce his base salary (16.1m) and his roster/game bonus (0.96m) totals in half. There is basically no incentive for him to do so.

He says no and nothing happens.

If we cut him, he'll get a pile of money. Probably more than he's schedule to make with us. Even the same contract as we just gave Hobbs puts more actual cash in his hand on day one that he'd make for all of 2025 in green bay.

If he agreed to a restructure, then we convert some of that 16Mil base Salary into a signing bonus, which would allow us to stagger it across a couple years. It does = a multi year commitment. However right now we’re paying $18Mil for ZERO production.
His current deal is bordering on abusive to our team when factoring his per active game average over the last several seasons. Unless you get “All Pro” J’aire playing 17 games + playoffs you lose imo.

The part I’m not sure about is where his commitment level is. Just for the record. Several years ago I said the exact same thing about Rodgers contract. Captain “without using the exact words” told me I was crazy. I said to restructure him into a $37.5mil annual but extend his guaranteed to give him more commit. His current 4 year deal then was a “2yr-1 then another 1” those were Rodgers words using bath mackwards. 2 years later.. as that salary dilutes, He took that exact pay cut with the Jets that took him to where? 37.5Mil. Not in a million years I was told

 

[mradtke66]

If he agreed to a restructure, then we convert some of that 16Mil base Salary into a signing bonus, which would allow us to stagger it across a couple years.
His current deal is bordering on abusive to our team when factoring his per active game average over the last several seasons. Unless you get “All Pro” J’aire playing 17 games + playoffs you lose

This is also possible, but he already has 2 years plus a void year. He already counts for 5.5m in 2025 and 26, with another 2.3m of proration in the void year.

Without adding any more years, he’ll be 30 when the contract voids.

What kind of contract makes sense if the biggest worry is his injury/availability?

 

[lambeaulambo]

cave man here...have chalk...will draw..

 

[AKCheese]

we’re not paying JA $26M , we already paid him $8M if we keep him we pay $17-18M more.

 

[Voyageur]

Yeah. My prediction is if we get some quantifiable draft capital we’d take the hit now. Either way his hit is already calculated into our available cap space. So you can imagine the financial flexibility of an additional $10Mil being shot into 2026.
Either way you pay for his remaining hit, but in a league where each season the hit diminishes the carry over (raised cap). The feeling $10mil now recognized in 2026 feels like $8.5mil etc. Yet you just got immediate spending power and if you understand how to utilize financials like we do, that’s not a bad thing.

It’s not like we’re paying interest on it it’s delayed CAP payment “zero interest”. Matter of fact I’d argue it’s the effect of being awarded an extra million or two for pushing it out.

I once had a lease that was .0001 factor. The Captive Financier allowed me to extend it. Not just the 12 months extension like the above example, but indefinitely. They took my Residual divided by my current payment and that result spread my debt across 52 remaining payments. I got 36+52 payments at .0001 factor. Or about 1/4 of 1% in a 7.5 year note. The cost funds for most Lenders is 10 times that. As you know. No Bank would loan $ at 0.24% for 7 years, right?

I got a 88 month loan at 0.24% money. Now you know why I always lease. Once I had clear title I sold it for about $9K. In 2012, Thats a 1/3 refund on all car payments I made (originally financed $28K Capital cost)

Excellent negotiations on your part. Knowing the math, and long-term implications of debt/reward is something few people truly understand.

 

[El Guapo]

I predict that Jaire will jump onto the stage with Rodger Goodell during the draft, a reprisal of his 2023 antics during the coin flip against Carolina.

 

[PikeBadger]

My guess with JA and the Packers is this. Basically they have 4 options and I will put them in order of what I think would be "priority" for the Packers.

1. Renegotiate his contract, to reflect the uncertainty of his availability.
2. Find a trade partner and get as much as you can for him.
3. Out right cut him.
4. Do nothing, keep contract as is.

I would prefer #1. I also think the Packers would prefer to keep JA around, on a more team friendly, injury risk deal. The problem is, JA sees what CB's of lessor talent, with just as much injury history, are getting paid.

Finding a trade partner (#2). While a nice thought, I believe the vultures are circling guys like Cooper Kupp, with one eye on Gute and JA.

If #3 is the Packers final solution, I hope they wait until the final cuts in Sept. They have no idea what their CB situation will be in Sept. and while he would be expensive, if he is healthy and needed, it just might be prudent to keep him.

That leads into option #4, do nothing, keep him for 2025. I think this is the least likely scenario, but a possibility. Besides his workout bonus, the Packers won't owe JA any more additional money, until and if, he is on the final 53 man roster to start the season. So this option is a back pocket one, while the Packers are trying to pull off one of the previous 3 options.

The remainder of Free agency and of course, the draft, will probably be a big clue as to what the plans are. Until then, sit tight and keep all options open.

I'll take door #2 please Monte

 

[Curly Calhoun]

I'll take door #2 please Monte

I would like that too, but it seems unlikely.

#3 seems the most likely scenario.

 

[tynimiller]

Everytime I see a new comment here I think something happened LOL

I personally am at piece with anything except a straight release. There is a team absolutely willing to do a conditional future pick at minimum without a doubt in my mind....straight release is just not right move IMO especially now that the courtesy to allow him to hit FA at the opening has past.

I'm slowly just saying keep him more and more and roll...

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

Everytime I see a new comment here I think something happened LOL

I personally am at piece with anything except a straight release. There is a team absolutely willing to do a conditional future pick at minimum without a doubt in my mind....straight release is just not right move IMO especially now that the courtesy to allow him to hit FA at the opening has past.

I'm slowly just saying keep him more and more and roll...

I honestly think that the Packers keep him. Especially if there is no trade market for him.

With some of the new FA signings, top CB's are now getting paid $25-$30M. Gute has to look at these new contracts and think to himself that JA's deal might be a decent deal now.

Of course, what the Packers do, will all depend on JA's health and how the Packers feel it will effect him in the next year. A healthy JA improves the Packers defense a lot. However, anytime a top player for your team goes down with an injury it hurts the team. That said, is JA more prone to injuries now? Could Hobbs go down just as easily? Could a First round CB get injured and not play?

As I said months ago, the ideal situation would be a new contract with JA and one that reflects his availability over the last few years and the question mark it puts on his future availability. The problem is, the market for good CB's is high, as are the salaries. So if the Packers don't continue paying him, another team will. Keep him on the roster and keep your options open, I see no reason to just cut or "give him away" for a 6th or 7th rounder.

 

[tynimiller]

I honestly think that the Packers keep him. Especially if there is no trade market for him.

With some of the new FA signings, top CB's are now getting paid $25-$30M. Gute has to look at these new contracts and think to himself that JA's deal might be a decent deal now.

Of course, what the Packers do, will all depend on JA's health and how the Packers feel it will effect him in the next year. A healthy JA improves the Packers defense a lot. However, anytime a top player for your team goes down with an injury it hurts the team. That said, is JA more prone to injuries now? Could Hobbs go down just as easily? Could a First round CB get injured and not play?

As I said months ago, the ideal situation would be a new contract with JA and one that reflects his availability over the last few years and the question mark it puts on his future availability. The problem is, the market for good CB's is high, as are the salaries. So if the Packers don't continue paying him, another team will.

Honestly I'd not be mad in the slightest if Gute came out and said "Jaire and the team have a plan for the 2025 season, we are the best we can be with #23 out there, but that has been a challenge the last few years; he knows it and we know it. We are going to have planned weeks off for Jaire in season - these will be known weeks in advance so gameplanning and teammates know well ahead of time. Our goal is for Jaire to help us close out the season and win in the playoffs ultimately - we want Ja to be here when the world sees Green Bay playing for a Super Bowl."

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

Honestly I'd not be mad in the slightest if Gute came out and said "Jaire and the team have a plan for the 2025 season, we are the best we can be with #23 out there, but that has been a challenge the last few years; he knows it and we know it. We are going to have planned weeks off for Jaire in season - these will be known weeks in advance so gameplanning and teammates know well ahead of time. Our goal is for Jaire to help us close out the season and win in the playoffs ultimately - we want Ja to be here when the world sees Green Bay playing for a Super Bowl."

While I kind of like the idea and the thought, I am wondering if "weeks off" as a preventative measure for injuries, might be viewed with some disdain from other players. The "we are out here working our butts off and JA gets how many weeks off and gets paid how much?" Anytime you start treating guys differently from their teammates, it might stir something up.

What I would be in favor of is a reworked contract that keeps JA happy and in GB for 3 more years, but reflects his health. Give him $5M for being on the team and $500,000 for each game he suits up for and plays at least 50% of the snaps.

 

[tynimiller]

While I kind of like the idea and the thought, I am wondering if "games off" as a preventative measure for injuries, might be viewed with some disdain from other players. The "we are out here working our butts off and JA gets how many weeks off and gets paid how much?" Anytime you start treating guys differently from their teammates, it might stir something up.

What I would be in favor of is a reworked contract that keeps JA happy and in GB for 3 more years, but reflects his health. Give him $5M for being on the team and $500,000 for each game he suits up for and plays at least 50% of the snaps.

Oh for sure. I just was spitballing. Something is going to have to change if he is here...maybe a snapcount per game limit or perhaps a contract rework or both.

 

[tynimiller]

@Pokerbrat2000 we've been down the discussion of such sizable "stipulations" on contracts is bad fiscally because teams have to hold back an amount of any potential incentives and such a structure that man could rack of MILLIONS.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

@Pokerbrat2000 we've been down the discussion of such sizable "stipulations" on contracts is bad fiscally because teams have to hold back an amount of any potential incentives and such a structure that man could rack of MILLIONS.

If he was paid a base salary of $5M and $500K/game, the most he would make in a single year (21 games) would be $15.5M. That amount is lower than what his current base salary is set to be in 2025 and 2026, so I don't see a problem.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

Oh for sure. I just was spitballing. Something is going to have to change if he is here...maybe a snapcount per game limit or perhaps a contract rework or both.

I'm sure his agent has a spreadsheet of all the players in the NFL, especially CB's and the games/snaps missed as a result of injury. In that agents speech will be "Jaire is now perfectly healthy and his doctor doesn't see any issues being created due to his past injuries. So his chances of getting injured are no different than ****insert names of high paid CB's here****"

There could be some truth to that. Yes, he has missed a lot of games, but what is the future for him? Are his past injuries such that he will continue to suffer more?

 

[tynimiller]

If he was paid a base salary of $5M and $500K/game, the most he would make in a single year (21 games) would be $15.5M. That amount is lower than what his current base salary is set to be in 2025 and 2026, so I don't see a problem.

I know you don't, the difference is not in the end game but in what it does.

The difference is a team can only carry over so much money if unspent BUT they also have to hold money for incentives...so while Jaire's new contract like this would only show a cap hit of like say $5M for 2025...the team doesn't have an extra $10.5M dollars to spend elsewhere despite that is what the cap would look like. They'd have to hold money in order to pay that.

Now incentives can be pushed to future cap hits in certain types, but I don't have those all memorized.

You might be able to get away with this for one guy...but to that degree that is MASSIVELY risky....because it isn't like holding an extra $500K or even a Million incase....that is a TON of money.

 

[tynimiller]

@Pokerbrat2000 that opening line sounded condescending - not the intent!

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

@Pokerbrat2000 that opening line sounded condescending - not the intent!

Not at all, ya &*%)(#$_#_@!!!

I am saying that IF, the Packers could work out a new contract with JA, even if they have to carry the potential $10.5M in game bonuses against the cap, that would be better than getting locked into his current base salaries of $16.5M (2025) and $18.5M in 2026 as counting against the cap. Or am I missing something?

Not to mention that if he got injured, they could cut him and not be locked into those base salaries. I guess the NFL makes sure that you can't have your cake and eat it to. I am fine with that. I do believe that if he didn't play in 6 games, the $3M in possible game incentives that he wasn't given, could be excluded from the cap numbers for the next season. I could be wrong on that, I will ask Russ Ball at Poker on Friday night.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

Bottom line for the Packers and JA. He is a risk, just like any player. He is a high cost risk, just like Jordan Love, Gary, Clark, etc. What the Packers will need to decide is IF they are willing to take that risk and if not, what will the team look like without him? He's an $18M dead cap hit, that can be spread over 2 years, but you get zero back from him and need to pay a replacement. For me, the $6M you save this year, doesn't justify cutting him. Next season....maybe, because it would be a much larger savings....$17M. Which is why I think it would be in both sides best interest to redo his contract.

 

[weeds]

Ever the eternal optimist, JA will be a Green Bay Packer in 2025, and will be an All Pro shutdown corner rendering this entire discussion moot.

Or I could 100% wrong (see my Super Bowl prediction).

 

[tynimiller]

Ever the eternal optimist, JA will be a Green Bay Packer in 2025, and will be an All Pro shutdown corner rendering this entire discussion moot.

Or I could 100% wrong (see my Super Bowl prediction).

I will say this much and I think everyone would agree....if Ja can play we will get CB1 level play from him nearly the whole time he is out there. Dude is a stud.

 

[DoURant]

I will say this much and I think everyone would agree....if Ja can play we will get CB1 level play from him nearly the whole time he is out there. Dude is a stud.

I will say this much and I think everyone would agree....if Ja can play we will get CB1 level play from him nearly the whole time he is out there. Dude is a stud.

https://x.com/FootbaIIism/status/1697282351053541568?t=EJjk_BtVjpJMXapRZcnKGQ&s=19