First Round Prospect Discussions Specifically

[PikeBadger]

Been thinking a lot on this and it is the hardest concept for many to comprehend it seems in my draft discussions, especially reflecting on Gute's drafts.

So the main issue Green Bay has more often than not found themselves in is the simple fact the funnel of the player pool always tightens down typically ahead of us....if you're in the top 10 your clear and evidence prospects you should be considering is much clearer...some years it bumps back some years it tightens down more. With less than 20 first round grades typical in many drafts...the target if you will gets bigger but that "bullseye" for a hit gets more elusive.

There for sure are going to be good players there when GB picks...and more than not Gute has been able to identify and draft NFL caliber guys...ranging from Wyatt to Savage to Stokes...all are NFL caliber guys...the issue is that phrase "first rounder" gets a lot of folks hung up and holds it against GMs often and will always make folks hold it against guys like Quay or Savage who just drafted on Day2 likely would be considered steals to a degree (this is fair btw...not saying it isn't). There will ALWAYS be in every single draft a handful of second rounders that hindsight illustrates should have been drafted before guys from 20-32nd in the first. Folks just simply fail to admit hindsight drives 90% of their criticism usually.

Just my opinion of course but I don't see Savage as a steal in round 4 even. He's a less than mediocre player who had very fast straight line speed.

 

[PikeBadger]

Picking in the deepest pool of talent doesn't seem to be a bad strategy. This year the DT class is rated high. Picking the second or third best DT at #23 may be comparable to picking the top rated DT in another year.

Weighing needs too heavily in the top 3 rounds IMO can be a fools errand. For one thing, needs on a football team can change overnight. Secondly, overweighing needs can lead to a situation opposite of the DT class where the talent pool could be low in a given year. That leads to reaching for players and drafting guys that would usually be selected in a lower round in a typical draft class.

I'm convinced that tight football games are won by having the most marquee players who "make a diiference". That's why I won't be disappointed if Gute passes on this year's lower ranked WR class in the 1rst or 2nd rounds and swims in the deep end of the pool.

I'm having flashbacks to listening to Ted Thompson...... Ted? Is that you?

 

[PikeBadger]

I think there is a really strong possibility if the board falls a certain way we could absolutely see Gute add a tackle prospect and Walker and who knows maybe even Rhyan get traded before the deadline depending on other moves, drafts...Banks signing really opened up stuff for Gute and Co to let multiple people walk if they want (including Jenkins in the future potentially).

Are we really that loaded at Tackle that we would trade off a starter? I have a hard time wrapping my head around that risky concept.

 

[tynimiller]

Are we really that loaded at Tackle that we would trade off a starter? I have a hard time wrapping my head around that risky concept.

Not risky at all IF the staff sees Morgan as a tackle.

Say Conerly Jr is there and we add him - he instantly could start there...we also have Jenkins who has played tackle in the NFL as well.

You could roll out a starting line of Conerly / Banks / Jenkins / Morgan / Tom and Rhyan be your swing interior which makes Walker highly surplus and attractive trade bait if a team has a guy go down. In this scenario you're likely also adding Dillard type guy back or another Day3 tackle prospect like Esa Poles as well.

I think this draft and decisions are being driven vastly more by 2026 than anything that is going to happen in 2025....this team has a SOLID young foundation, but with 6 starter level guys and 8 contributors and 10 that get actual snaps with expiring contracts after this year - this draft is MASSIVELY about handling the future more than the present IMO.

 

[tynimiller]

Just my opinion of course but I don't see Savage as a steal in round 4 even. He's a less than mediocre player who had very fast straight line speed.

Mediocre NFL players don't start for as long as he has IMO.

 

[tynimiller]

I can't agree with you there.

Heading into that 2023 draft, the Packers had two guys on the roster who were worth any sort of consideration at receiver-- Watson and Doubs. Virtually the entire WR corps was built in that draft (Reed, Wicks, and Dubose), via UDFA (Heath), and a SFA (Melton). The only other player who made the roster at WR and who was on the roster before that draft was Samori Toure.

Going into this year, they already have Doubs, Reed, Wicks, Heath, and Melton heading into camp. Watson is obviously still under contract, but injured.

Still a legit need, but a little less so compared to 2023.

Now an argument that I could see is draft position. In 2023, they picked 13th and JSN went 20th. So maybe they would have been interested in him later on (say, in the range where they pick this season).

Also added low level Hardman to the room too.

 

[gopkrs]

Not risky at all IF the staff sees Morgan as a tackle.

Say Conerly Jr is there and we add him - he instantly could start there...we also have Jenkins who has played tackle in the NFL as well.

You could roll out a starting line of Conerly / Banks / Jenkins / Morgan / Tom and Rhyan be your swing interior which makes Walker highly surplus and attractive trade bait if a team has a guy go down. In this scenario you're likely also adding Dillard type guy back or another Day3 tackle prospect like Esa Poles as well.

I think this draft and decisions are being driven vastly more by 2026 than anything that is going to happen in 2025....this team has a SOLID young foundation, but with 6 starter level guys and 8 contributors and 10 that get actual snaps with expiring contracts after this year - this draft is MASSIVELY about handling the future more than the present IMO.

I couldn't read anymore after you said Jenkins could play tackle.

 

[Dantés]

I couldn't read anymore after you said Jenkins could play tackle.

I think all he was saying is that he has done it and could be an emergency fill in.

 

[gopkrs]

I know and I saw Jenkins play there. That is a very low bar for even a backup. I don't see how having played there before neans anything.

 

[tynimiller]

I know and I saw Jenkins play there. That is a very low bar for even a backup. I don't see how having played there before neans anything.

We also have to remember the time frame of which he did this (I still don't think he was fully recovered) - alas though you missed the entire point of the post if that is what you ran with. Jenkins is a high level (at worst interior OL)...and I think his perfect position has all along been center, which he is heading to play this year.

 

[Thirteen Below]

CB - Will Johnson - Michigan, consensus is he will be gone early, but there is always a guy who falls. Johnson has had multiple injuries in college ( turf toe and hamstring), couple that with he didn't run a 40 time at the combine or at Michigan's Pro Day leaving many to wonder how fast he really is.

He's also had a shoulder injury, and some sort of knee surgery (the nature of which was not made public, although I'm sure scouts and GMs are well-informed).

There seem to be a number of similarities between him and Jaire; I'd hate to think that being injury prone is one of them. I'm worried about replacing Jaire with another injury-prone CB.

So never say never, if he makes it to #23, it would be tough to pass him up. Now, Two guys who are pretty much considered 2nd Rd guys... but so was Stokes... they are both tall, fast and are outside corners.

I'm not sure drawing a comparison to stokes is very advantageous to anyone...

Maxwell Hairston - Kentucky - 4.29 40...

I really like Hairston a lot; have seen him play several times. He's had some lost time due to a shoulder injury, too but I think that was the only significant injury.

Seems like quite a lot of the top CBs have injury concerns - Hairston, Johnson, Revel, Wiggins, Morrison... they've all missed time with significant injuries. I wonder if the long, lanky speed guys are just too fragile. As massive and powerful as running backs are getting, maybe cornerbacks are just not built to put the shoulder into a 220-lb back running full speed into the secondary.

 

[tynimiller]

CB - Will Johnson - Michigan, consensus is he will be gone early, but there is always a guy who falls. Johnson has had multiple injuries in college ( turf toe and hamstring), couple that with he didn't run a 40 time at the combine or at Michigan's Pro Day leaving many to wonder how fast he really is. So never say never, if he makes it to #23, it would be tough to pass him up. Now, Two guys who are pretty much considered 2nd Rd guys... but so was Stokes... they are both tall, fast and are outside corners.

Will Johnson is arguably one of the most consensus first rounders for the last year as any prospect out there...

 

[DoURant]

Will Johnson is arguably one of the most consensus first rounders for the last year as any prospect out there...

Yes he is, and most of that has been top 10 ranked. His ball skills are possibly tops of the CB's, but even some of the National guys are mocking him in the teens more, not top 10 like before the combine.

 

[DoURant]

I'm not sure drawing a comparison to stokes is very advantageous to anyone...

Good point , however, I guess what I've noticed is if Gute zeros in on a guy, he isn’t afraid to spend a 1st rd pick to get him, when consensus says he is over drafting them. ( Quay, Stokes, Savage are the best examples that come to mind )

 

[tynimiller]

Good point , however, I guess what I've noticed is if Gute zeros in on a guy, he isn’t afraid to spend a 1st rd pick to get him, when consensus says he is over drafting them. ( Quay, Stokes, Savage are the best examples that come to mind )

For those curious reading this:

Stokes consensus was 44 but positionally he was mocked a LOT in drafts Day1.
Quay consensus was 39 - again though many were mocking him or Nakobe Dean Day1 (Devin Lloyd was the consensus first off).
Savage was 44 - don't recall many saying he was Day1 guy

However you didn't bring up:

Gary was consensus 14th
Jaire was 23rd
Josh Jackson (we picked in second) was consensus 20th above Jaire
Jordan Love was 23rd
Wyatt was 25th
LVN was 16th
Morgan was 35th

 

[DoURant]

For those curious reading this:

Stokes consensus was 44 but positionally he was mocked a LOT in drafts Day1.
Quay consensus was 39 - again though many were mocking him or Nakobe Dean Day1 (Devin Lloyd was the consensus first off).
Savage was 44 - don't recall many saying he was Day1 guy

However you didn't bring up:

Gary was consensus 14th
Jaire was 23rd
Josh Jackson (we picked in second) was consensus 20th above Jaire
Jordan Love was 23rd
Wyatt was 25th
LVN was 16th
Morgan was 35th

The point of my original post is all the guys Gute drafted in the first weren't guys we as a Forum were all " We gotta have these guys" other than I feel Van Ness was on a lot of members list of 1st Rd guys. Love may gave been 23, but no one was saying we gotta draft Love if he's there. Same can be said about the rest on that list, aside for a few stragglers here and there. I myself was a Morgan fan.

Thanks for putting their ranks in there, I appreciate it!

 

[Dantés]

For those curious reading this:

Stokes consensus was 44 but positionally he was mocked a LOT in drafts Day1.
Quay consensus was 39 - again though many were mocking him or Nakobe Dean Day1 (Devin Lloyd was the consensus first off).
Savage was 44 - don't recall many saying he was Day1 guy

However you didn't bring up:

Gary was consensus 14th
Jaire was 23rd
Josh Jackson (we picked in second) was consensus 20th above Jaire
Jordan Love was 23rd
Wyatt was 25th
LVN was 16th
Morgan was 35th

If the Packers dip into the 35-50 range of the consensus board, you’re looking at names like:

Jayden Higgens

Josh Conerly Jr
Donovan Jackson

Tyleik Williams

Nic Scourton
Landon Jackson

Max Hairston
Shavon Revel
Azareye’h Thomas
Trey Amos
Benjamin Morrison

 

[gopkrs]

Good point , however, I guess what I've noticed is if Gute zeros in on a guy, he isn’t afraid to spend a 1st rd pick to get him, when consensus says he is over drafting them. ( Quay, Stokes, Savage are the best examples that come to mind )

Hope he stops overdrafting in the early rounds.

 

[tynimiller]

Hope he stops overdrafting in the early rounds.

He hasn’t been really though. I shared the entire first rounds compared to consensus boards…but we also have to remember consensus isn’t gospel either. I do appreciate it though and believe it is an excellent gauge to hold things relatively to.

 

[Schultz]

Tyni, what were Hairstons snap counts positionally? I have him lower than most, and have a small note "slot" next to his name. Slot, box, outside. Thanks in advance.

 

[tynimiller]

Tyni, what were Hairstons snap counts positionally? I have him lower than most, and have a small note "slot" next to his name. Slot, box, outside. Thanks in advance.

He’s a wide corner less than ten slot snaps this past year…but he has not had many snaps in general due to some injuries.

 

[Thirteen Below]

Yes he is, and most of that has been top 10 ranked. His ball skills are possibly tops of the CB's, but even some of the National guys are mocking him in the teens more, not top 10 like before the combine.

Why do you suppose that is? Just the injuries alone, or is there something else going on?

 

[DoURant]

Why do you suppose that is? Just the injuries alone, or is there something else going on?

It could be a couple things, especially the little injuries that has kept him of the field here and there. It's possible the turf toe injury from last year might be lingering and causing him to not run the 40. Also, Jahdae Barron may have improved his stock and be a better fit in other teams eyes. I definitely don't think it's anything with character.

 

[AmishMafia]

If the Packers dip into the 35-50 range of the consensus board, you’re looking at names like:

Jayden Higgens

Josh Conerly Jr
Donovan Jackson

Tyleik Williams

Nic Scourton
Landon Jackson

Max Hairston
Shavon Revel
Azareye’h Thomas
Trey Amos
Benjamin Morrison

I am liking the idea of Conerly at 23 as I dont think he makes it out of the first round. It is amazing how closely he resembles Morgan in athletics and size. Draftbuzz has him a 100% match.

Additionally, he is only 21 and I think he has a higher ceiling.

 

[Dantés]

I am liking the idea of Conerly at 23 as I dont think he makes it out of the first round. It is amazing how closely he resembles Morgan in athletics and size. Draftbuzz has him a 100% match.

Additionally, he is only 21 and I think he has a higher ceiling.

Conerly is an interesting one. Consensus has him around #40, but there are a handful of people who absolutely love him.

Whoever did the OT's for Lindy's has him as OT1 and Mike Tice recently said he's the best OL in the draft, for example.

IF (and it could be a smokescreen) the Morgan to LT stuff is a smokescreen, it wouldn't make sense. But if Morgan is the future at RG, then Conerly makes a lot of sense.