F>R's 2020 Mock Draft Thread (Final Mocks Page 16)

[tynimiller]

I can only see him jump for Murray or Queen, but I don't think they last past 24th. While I have continuously defended Jefferson, we have two many holes to jump up and cost us on the back end. I'll accept Reagor, Aiyuk, etc no matter what.

It would have to take a guy Gute and Co. is nearly if not 100% on is a step in and excel type guy. Given this year's WR depth it won't be a WR, but I could see it be a ILB...or a OT (depending on our FA resignings or signings)....maybe one of the STUD DT fall unexpectedly. Outside that I think Gute is more likely to have the draft fall to a trade back into the 2nd out of the #30 spot than trade up. #30 is that spot that should a team be high on a guy like Jordan Love or another QB be there for the taking will want to have that 5th year option for first rounders and we may be surprised at what is thrown our way for our #30 pick.

 

[4zone]

I do personally feel this draft is setting up to have some shuffling around trade wise for sure. I keep eyeing that 26th pick of the Dolphins given their equity this draft as a spot Gute may have on his mind if he sees a specific player not getting picked. While it may not be a huge swing from 30 to 26....if the right guy is HIGH on our draft board and he makes it to there, I could easily see Gute try and make that happen.

Would rather see him trade down into the top of Rd 2 for another mid round pick.

 

[Favre>Rodgers259]

It would have to take a guy Gute and Co. is nearly if not 100% on is a step in and excel type guy. Given this year's WR depth it won't be a WR, but I could see it be a ILB...or a OT (depending on our FA resignings or signings)....maybe one of the STUD DT fall unexpectedly. Outside that I think Gute is more likely to have the draft fall to a trade back into the 2nd out of the #30 spot than trade up. #30 is that spot that should a team be high on a guy like Jordan Love or another QB be there for the taking will want to have that 5th year option for first rounders and we may be surprised at what is thrown our way for our #30 pick.

Would rather see him trade down into the top of Rd 2 for another mid round pick.

With Detroit actively shopping the #3 pick we could see 3 QBs go in the Top 5, possibly 4 or 5 going in the Top 10 or 15. That will cause some guys to slide. I could see Gute sliding back into the top of the 2nd Round(33rd - 42nd), allowing us to address some additional positions.

You know what, I think I feel another mock coming on with that scenario....stay tuned Sunday.

 

[Dantés]

With Detroit actively shopping the #3 pick we could see 3 QBs go in the Top 5, possibly 4 or 5 going in the Top 10 or 15. That will cause some guys to slide. I could see Gute sliding back into the top of the 2nd Round(33rd - 42nd), allowing us to address some additional positions.

You know what, I think I feel another mock coming on with that scenario....stay tuned Sunday.

Sometimes I find it helpful to project the players you think are really likely to go before you pick and then create a smaller big board out of the remaining prospects.

Very conservatively, we can predict that at least three QB's will be going in the top 29 (probably more, but this is meant to err on the side of caution).

It's hard to say for sure how many RB's will go top 29 in this anti-RB climate, but between Swift, Dobbins, Edwards-Helaire, and Taylor, I think we are in pretty safe territory if we say that one goes.

I don't think we can safely predict that any tight ends go top 29.

Let's say that Jeudy, Lamb, and Ruggs all go at WR.

On the offensive line, I think it's only the tackles that can be safely projected to be off the board: Wills, Becton, Wirfs, Taylor.

On the defensive line, Derrick Brown and Javon Kinlaw are good bets.

On the edge, Young and Chaisson.

At linebacker, Simmons and, I would add, Queen.

At cornerback, Okudah and Henderson.

At safety, McKinney and Delpit.

So if all of these players came off the board in the top 29, then that would be a total of 21 players.

So technically, the Packers would guaranteed one of the best 10 remaining. I am not nearly far enough into this class to try and create that list for you on my own, so here are Zierlein's 20 best remaining grades with those guys gone:

1. Z. Baun, LB/ED, Wisconsin
2. R. Davis, iDL, Alabama
3. Y. Gros-Matos, ED, Penn State
4. L. Shenault, WR, Colorado
5. T. Higgins, WR, Clemson
6. K. Murray, LB, Oklahoma
7. A. Epenesa, ED, Iowa
8. J. Taylor, RB, Wisconsin
9. Z. Moss, RB, Utah
10. H. Bryant, TE, Florida Atlantic
11. J. Johnson, CB, Utah
12. C. Danztler, CB, Miss. State
13. J. Jones, OT, Houston
14. C. Edwards-Helaire, RB, LSU
15. J. Jefferson, WR, LSU
16. C. Ruiz, C, Michigan
17. R. Blacklock, iDL, TCU
18. C. Claypool, WR, Notre Dame
19. J. Reagor, WR, TCU
20. T. Diggs, CB, Alabama

Take out the ED's and the RB's because the Packers really shouldn't be spending their first pick there, and you're left with 15 players, 7 of which I like quite a bit.

Unless a guy unexpectedly falls to them, I think the preferred move this year will be to trade down with a team wanting to secure a fifth year option on a QB. I think the guy they can get at #30 is likely to be comparable to the one they can get at 37, 38, or 39 (which is where LAC, CAR, and MIA pick in round 2).

 

[Favre>Rodgers259]

Sometimes I find it helpful to project the players you think are really likely to go before you pick and then create a smaller big board out of the remaining prospects.

Very conservatively, we can predict that at least three QB's will be going in the top 29 (probably more, but this is meant to err on the side of caution).

It's hard to say for sure how many RB's will go top 29 in this anti-RB climate, but between Swift, Dobbins, Edwards-Helaire, and Taylor, I think we are in pretty safe territory if we say that one goes.

I don't think we can safely predict that any tight ends go top 29.

Let's say that Jeudy, Lamb, and Ruggs all go at WR.

On the offensive line, I think it's only the tackles that can be safely projected to be off the board: Wills, Becton, Wirfs, Taylor.

On the defensive line, Derrick Brown and Javon Kinlaw are good bets.

On the edge, Young and Chaisson.

At linebacker, Simmons and, I would add, Queen.

At cornerback, Okudah and Henderson.

At safety, McKinney and Delpit.

So if all of these players came off the board in the top 29, then that would be a total of 21 players.

So technically, the Packers would guaranteed one of the best 10 remaining. I am not nearly far enough into this class to try and create that list for you on my own, so here are Zierlein's 20 best remaining grades with those guys gone:

1. Z. Baun, LB/ED, Wisconsin
2. R. Davis, iDL, Alabama
3. Y. Gros-Matos, ED, Penn State
4. L. Shenault, WR, Colorado
5. T. Higgins, WR, Clemson
6. K. Murray, LB, Oklahoma
7. A. Epenesa, ED, Iowa
8. J. Taylor, RB, Wisconsin
9. Z. Moss, RB, Utah
10. H. Bryant, TE, Florida Atlantic
11. J. Johnson, CB, Utah
12. C. Danztler, CB, Miss. State
13. J. Jones, OT, Houston
14. C. Edwards-Helaire, RB, LSU
15. J. Jefferson, WR, LSU
16. C. Ruiz, C, Michigan
17. R. Blacklock, iDL, TCU
18. C. Claypool, WR, Notre Dame
19. J. Reagor, WR, TCU
20. T. Diggs, CB, Alabama

Take out the ED's and the RB's because the Packers really shouldn't be spending their first pick there, and you're left with 15 players, 7 of which I like quite a bit.

Unless a guy unexpectedly falls to them, I think the preferred move this year will be to trade down with a team wanting to secure a fifth year option on a QB. I think the guy they can get at #30 is likely to be comparable to the one they can get at 37, 38, or 39 (which is where LAC, CAR, and MIA pick in round 2).

Without breaking down each prospect......

If AJ Epenesa is there at 30th, his cell better light up with a 920 number.

 

[Dantés]

Without breaking down each prospect......

If AJ Epenesa is there at 30th, his cell better light up with a 920 number.

Trade out and let someone else draft him. We shouldn't be spending another 1st rounder on an edge with Smith, Smith, and Gary on board.

 

[Favre>Rodgers259]

Trade out and let someone else draft him. We shouldn't be spending another 1st rounder on an edge with Smith, Smith, and Gary on board.

And yet with that combination we were gashed in San Francisco. Clark and Lowry need help down there. I wouldn't even mind 2 guys who might make Lowry a pure backup/rotational guy. There were stretches in games where he occasionally was a non-factor.

 

[Dantés]

And yet with that combination we were gashed in San Francisco. Clark and Lowry need help down there. I wouldn't even mind 2 guys who might make Lowry a pure backup/rotational guy. There were stretches in games where he occasionally was a non-factor.

They have already invested a first round pick in an edge who is supposed to be an elite edge setter. If he can play on the interior, that's a different story.

 

[Favre>Rodgers259]

They have already invested a first round pick in an edge who is supposed to be an elite edge setter. If he can play on the interior, that's a different story.

I'm definitely in Gary's corner. But we need someone permanently with their hand in the dirt. If Gary isn't going to be in that role full time, then someone needs to be acquired to do so.

 

[Dantés]

I'm definitely in Gary's corner. But we need someone permanently with their hand in the dirt. If Gary isn't going to be in that role full time, then someone needs to be acquired to do so.

A guy like Epenesa isn't going to line up permanently with his hand in the dirt unless he can play effectively from the 3T, which I kind of doubt.

 

[Favre>Rodgers259]

A guy like Epenesa isn't going to line up permanently with his hand in the dirt unless he can play effectively from the 3T, which I kind of doubt.

He's probably more of a 5T but he's been described as stronger than he is fast, so I think he'll compliment Clark well. We make projects out of everyone else....to me this isn't that much of a stretch.

 

[Dantés]

He's probably more of a 5T but he's been described as stronger than he is fast, so I think he'll compliment Clark well. We make projects out of everyone else....to me this isn't that much of a stretch.

The iDL next to Clark is usually playing a 3T. I don't think that the 6'6" 280# college 43DE is a good projection at that spot. Who else are we making a project like that?

 

[GleefulGary]

He's probably more of a 5T but he's been described as stronger than he is fast, so I think he'll compliment Clark well. We make projects out of everyone else....to me this isn't that much of a stretch.

I like Epenesa, and I buy that he can play 5T in stretches, but full time? I dunno man.

He's a good player, but if you're drafting him in the first round, it's not to play 5T.

 

[Favre>Rodgers259]

I believe Epenesa can be successful in a variety of schemes....and in a make or break year for Mike Pettine, he could be extremely useful to the next Defensive Coordinator who might favor an even or altered multiple front.

"Bring back Nitro...."

 

[Dantés]

I like Epenesa, and I buy that he can play 5T in stretches, but full time? I dunno man.

He's a good player, but if you're drafting him in the first round, it's not to play 5T.

Not to mention that even if he could, we don't use a 5T all that often.

 

[Dantés]

I believe Epenesa can be successful in a variety of schemes....and in a make or break year for Mike Pettine, he could be extremely useful to the next Defensive Coordinator who might favor an even or altered multiple front.

"Bring back Nitro...."

If the Packers FO kept Pettine at DC only to draft personnel high that doesn't fit for him because they have the next guy in view, then they have much bigger, systemic problems.

 

[GleefulGary]

Not to mention that even if he could, we don't use a 5T all that often.

Irrelevant.

Maybe he could play ILB?

 

[Favre>Rodgers259]

If the Packers FO kept Pettine at DC only to draft personnel high that doesn't fit for him because they have the next guy in view, then they have much bigger, systemic problems.

And yet, that's what we've done for years. Clark, Gary, Savage, Alexander. Z. Smith if you count FA. Guys who can play at multiple spots to allow for flexibility. I do appreciate it, but for some reason we just can't reach our full potential.

 

[GleefulGary]

And yet, that's what we've done for years. Clark, Gary, Savage, Alexander. Z. Smith if you count FA. Guys who can play at multiple spots to allow for flexibility. I do appreciate it, but for some reason we just can't reach our full potential.

But all those guys fit what Pettine does. I think that's what you're missing here.

 

[Favre>Rodgers259]

But all those guys fit what Pettine does. I think that's what you're missing here.

And with nearly half the league running a 3-4 variant in the NFL, they'll fit others too.

Somewhere there is a disconnect....either in coaching, scheme, or ability. This year's class and season could give us a better indication on which.

 

[AmishMafia]

Epenesa will go top 20. Should he make it to 30 we should snap him up. He would play a 5T for us which is tantalizing pairing with ZSmith on the OLB.

Epen is uber strong and long. He can set an edge and has lots of pass rush ability. With Z excelling at interior pass rush, offenses would have a difficult Time knowing where the rush is coming from. I think he can play the 3T as well. He plays with great strength and leverage. This guy is not JJ watt, but he is really good.

 

[Dantés]

And yet, that's what we've done for years. Clark, Gary, Savage, Alexander. Z. Smith if you count FA. Guys who can play at multiple spots to allow for flexibility. I do appreciate it, but for some reason we just can't reach our full potential.

Pettine has been here since 2018.

Since that hire, the defensive additions worth mentioning are Mo Wilkerson, Tramon Williams, Bashaud Breeland, Jaire Alexander, Josh Jackson, Oren Burks, Za'Darius Smith, Preston Smith, Adrian Amos, Rashan Gary, and Darnell Savage.

Which of those guys didn't fit Pettine and why?

 

[Dantés]

And with nearly half the league running a 3-4 variant in the NFL, they'll fit others too.

Somewhere there is a disconnect....either in coaching, scheme, or ability. This year's class and season could give us a better indication on which.

What's a 3-4 variant?

Some teams, when in base defense, run a 3-4, while others run a 4-3. But base defense is less relevant all the time. Nickel and Dime defense are the order of the day.

Most of the time, the Packers do not have a 5T on the field. Their most common fronts are much more similar to traditional 4-3 DL concepts than 3-4.

Epenesa could probably play the 5T, when we use that position. But most of the time, he would just need to play on the edge of a 4-2-5 or 4-2-6. And on the edge is where we already have the Smith's and Gary waiting behind them. He wouldn't make sense here.

The Packers shouldn't be spending #30 on an edge, and if they spend it on an iDL, it should be a penetrating, disruptive 3T, which they currently lack.

 

[Dantés]

Irrelevant.

Maybe he could play ILB?

Or SAF? Try to throw over the top of all of that length.

 

[Favre>Rodgers259]

Epenesa will go top 20. Should he make it to 30 we should snap him up. He would play a 5T for us which is tantalizing pairing with ZSmith on the OLB.

Epen is uber strong and long. He can set an edge and has lots of pass rush ability. With Z excelling at interior pass rush, offenses would have a difficult Time knowing where the rush is coming from. I think he can play the 3T as well. He plays with great strength and leverage. This guy is not JJ watt, but he is really good.

Somebody gets it....

Pettine has been here since 2018.

Since that hire, the defensive additions worth mentioning are Mo Wilkerson, Tramon Williams, Bashaud Breeland, Jaire Alexander, Josh Jackson, Oren Burks, Za'Darius Smith, Preston Smith, Adrian Amos, Rashan Gary, and Darnell Savage.

Which of those guys didn't fit Pettine and why?

I never said they didn't fit. I'm just saying we have guys who can be effective in multiple schemes. I don't think we have a single guy who gets major snaps where we would say, "he can't play outside of such and such...."

But either the scheme needs to adjust slightly, or we need some extra help, and I've repeatedly said it's along the line.