Expectations for Packers Defense 2019

greengold

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Thought you might dig this article on our D, and where we stood last season in review from Football Outsiders.

https://www.acmepackingcompany.com/...pass-defense-mike-pettine-nfl-preaseason-2019

The new additions on defense this year, along with what I anticipate will be a healthy return of Kevin King, should yield vast improvement on this side of the ball for Green Bay. I seriously think we will be a Top 5 Defense in the NFL this year, if we can stay healthy. This is a very talented team on D. With the pressure we can now apply, along with our ballhawking secondary, I see this turning into quite the pick party this year. I believe our TO differential is going to go through the roof.

Defense wins Championships.
 

Sunshinepacker

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I would be absolutely stunned if the Packers were a top 5 defense this year. They did be improved but there are just too many unknowns that would have to wind up perfect for this defense to be top 5. I don't think that the Packers pass rush is elite enough to make up for the questions at CB and the pass defense, while probably about average, isn't going to allow this team to be an elite NFL defense.

That being said, I hope I'm wrong. I hope King and Jackson take that next step and Gary shocks the world with his pass rush ability.
 

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If they become a top 5 Defense, we're winning The Superbowl, assuming we have Rodgers healthy.
 

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we're due for some health in the defensive backfield, though I'm never going to depend on King for anything. I'd like to, I think he's good and could be a perfect compliment to Alexander with his length. But sometimes people just cant' stay healthy and i'm afraid he's one of them.
 
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greengold

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Hey Mondio,

Well, I know what you are saying, but I do believe he is tougher than many might think. Played all 4 years at U Washington with the torn labrum - has surgery that Senior year after season. Just got stuck with some bad luck tearing the other one as a rookie, then the groin and hamstring last season.

Something tells me, don't give up on him... hoping Kevin King has a full, successful season this year.
 

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I hope you're right. I'm not questioning his toughness concerning what's inside. I think he's a football player thru and thru. Just worried he'll never hold up. Man would it be nice if he could hit his stride week one and never look back.
 
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greengold

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Hey Mondio, no doubt! I'm just hoping for the best with King. If he makes it through the entire season, I'm sure we will like the results.
 

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The defense will be improved vs the pass but could be a liabilty in the run game. There just isn"t enough talent and the d line and ILB are too thin for a top ten defense. I'd be happy to break the top 15. Now that 2 nd round pick Josh Jones was cut, don't be surprised if Gute sends another 2nd round TT pick in Keven King out the door. Gute's tolerance for low production is a lot less than TT.
 

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we did this in the predict the record contest.

But NOW...we have the results of pre-season Game #4 to further bolster our previously unsupported opinions. Frankly, when I say I'm bolstering my preseason predictions, I'm LITERALLY tossing my preseason predictions in a bolster somewhere.

Pack defense gave up 25 points per game finishing 22nd out of 32... 400 points... that is the worst in the North Division.

HOWEVER, if we need something to hang our defensive helmets on, the Pack finished 18th in total yardage yielded. Some would argue this is an important stat in that excessive yardage yielded leads to the 400 points referred to prior. Fair enough.

Pack defense in 2018 finished 12th in yardage yielded via the pass. Good thing? Sure... except that 12th of 32 teams was STILL the worst in the division. That kinda sucks, eh? Do something well and still get slapped upside the head for by ol' weedsie boy.

...oh yeah...and let us not forget ... 22nd against the run. Again... worst in the division. Did the Pack earn their 6-9-1 record? Oh, I'd say they did and it wasn't because Aaron was playing hurt. It was because the defense couldn't get off the field.

The offensive woes are a book in and of itself - beginning with a non-existent running game and what not. I would argue that the Pack's offensive problems contributed BIG TIME to the Pack's defensive woes because the offense couldn't stay ON the field.

Defensively, last year? OK - new system. New coordinator...blah blah blah. The defensive issues of the last 8 years are well documented. Well documented because they were so damned evident. Many have commented that they saw marked improvement over Dom's defenses - well, you're better judges of teams than me then, because all I saw was 400 friggen points yielded. Choosing between Dom's defense and what we had last year is like choosing the less ugly sister to head off to the hay mow with. Nah...

Consequently, I'm going to reign in any defensive expectations for 2019 ... and be pleasantly surprised if and when these guys can find their ***** with both hands.

That's my bold prediction for this year.
 

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A defense ranking worse in PPG than YPG is a big red flag to me. This often happens when the team has a putrid offense , and while it may seem that way by our standards, I don't think anyone can honestly say that compared to offenses with Josh Allen, Blake Bortles, etc. While reviewing Pettine's previous stints, his defense were usually poor in the red zone. And it's head scratching that such a seasoned DC could allow rookie QBs on bad teams to have career days against him.

I honestly think that he's Capers by another name. I'm still seeing awful tackling, poor discipline, and analysts highlighting future stars by reviewing their tape vs our defense. These are reserves, but these are lack of basic fundamentals which are getting exposed. I wish that they had stayed out of LaFluer's way regarding the DC. He came from TN, who really couldn't pressure the QB with a 4 man rush yet still had the #3 scoring defense because they had a top red zone defense. With the talent on the defense, we could have something special if he could use his experience to find a great game planner and play caller of similar ilk . I think
 

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I would be absolutely stunned if the Packers were a top 5 defense this year. They did be improved but there are just too many unknowns that would have to wind up perfect for this defense to be top 5. I don't think that the Packers pass rush is elite enough to make up for the questions at CB and the pass defense, while probably about average, isn't going to allow this team to be an elite NFL defense.

That being said, I hope I'm wrong. I hope King and Jackson take that next step and Gary shocks the world with his pass rush ability.

I don't see a top 5 defense . Would be a awesome surprise though. What I really want to see is us stopping the 3rd down conversions. We couldn't stop jack last year.
 

rmontro

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I would be absolutely stunned if the Packers were a top 5 defense this year. They did be improved but there are just too many unknowns that would have to wind up perfect for this defense to be top 5. I don't think that the Packers pass rush is elite enough to make up for the questions at CB and the pass defense, while probably about average, isn't going to allow this team to be an elite NFL defense.
Yeah, I'm going to have to see improvement with my actual eyes before I get that optimistic. I do think they'll get more INTs this year than last year though.

It makes you wonder about teams that have a defensive tradition, like Chicago or Baltimore. How they consistently have good defenses when the Packers can't seem to find one in multiple attempts. Is it better scouts, better coaching? It makes you wonder about the organization as a whole.

By the way, Nick Wright from First Things First predicted the Packers as Super Bowl winners this season. The other co-host (a replacement, not Cris Carter) picked them to win the NFC North, but not the Super Bowl - he picked the Eagles, I think it was.
 

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Yeah, I'm going to have to see improvement with my actual eyes before I get that optimistic. I do think they'll get more INTs this year than last year though.

It makes you wonder about teams that have a defensive tradition, like Chicago or Baltimore. How they consistently have good defenses when the Packers can't seem to find one in multiple attempts. Is it better scouts, better coaching? It makes you wonder about the organization as a whole.

By the way, Nick Wright from First Things First predicted the Packers as Super Bowl winners this season. The other co-host (a replacement, not Cris Carter) picked them to win the NFC North, but not the Super Bowl - he picked the Eagles, I think it was.

Chris Broussard. One of the most level minded and fair individuals when it comes to sports. I have huge respect for him as he's very objective and fair.
 

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I don't believe we can be a championship team by assuming Aaron will get it done. We have had several opportunities to upgrade our Defense with top-tier players and can't seem to make it happen. I have no idea what goes on in Packer Control Central, but Jadevien Clowney just went to Seattle. Do we have to pass these players by because of the huge amount being paid to Rodgers? If not, why are we not going after some of these established play-makers? I don't see how we have changed much from when TT was GM. Frustrating to see such a great QB as Rodgers only have 1 Super Bowl. As an organization, we have screwed up.
 

mongoosev

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don't be surprised if this D is even better than the chicago bears d that won the super bowl shuffle!
 
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If not, why are we not going after some of these established play-makers?
Because Clowney costs more than is in our checking account.
Have you been watching the offseason at all?? We've spent more operating capital and draft resources (#12 and #21 plus a veteran S, OG, OLB and OLB) than TT has ever dreamed of spending. Not to mention we may still add more players.
GB is smart not to mortgage our future like other teams are doing. There are trades I see around the league that are bordering on literal acts of desperation. You have to carry a balanced budget year to year to accommodate the layers of players contracts and holes needed to be filled overlapping from season to season. Stealing our future in order to chase one known quantity at anything less than a QB is a fools game

I do agree we've put too much on Aaron Rodgers shoulders. Correct me though if that wasn't mostly in the past? We can't change the past, we can only work in the present. The past was largely not MLF, Gutes or Pettines fault, so to carry this self defeating attitude forward and using them as a scapegoat is a bit disconcerting
 
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rodell330

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I don't believe we can be a championship team by assuming Aaron will get it done. We have had several opportunities to upgrade our Defense with top-tier players and can't seem to make it happen. I have no idea what goes on in Packer Control Central, but Jadevien Clowney just went to Seattle. Do we have to pass these players by because of the huge amount being paid to Rodgers? If not, why are we not going after some of these established play-makers? I don't see how we have changed much from when TT was GM. Frustrating to see such a great QB as Rodgers only have 1 Super Bowl. As an organization, we have screwed up.

It’s the Packers way to hinge everything on a first ballot QB and hope draft picks can develop into stars. Yes TT is gone, but a lot of him rubbed off on Gute. People always talk about “mortgaging the future” but the point is to win the SB every year...not 3 or 4 yrs from now smh.
 
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It’s the Packers way to hinge everything on a first ballot QB and hope draft picks can develop into stars. Yes TT is gone, but a lot of him rubbed off on Gute. People always talk about “mortgaging the future” but the point is to win the SB every year...not 3 or 4 yrs from now smh.
That's exactly why we spent a *** on Turner, Smith, Amos and Smith. Not to mention two first round draft picks.
If the point is to win a SB every year... how do you do that when contracts expire year to year and you have no operating budget or day 1 or 2 draft picks? You can't have it both ways. You either run with a balanced budget or blow your *** and hope for the best in the current year and maybe maybe the next (see Chicago Bears). Their probability is diminishing while ours is increasing.
IF you don't believe me. Believe the results of this season.
Lets make a bet.. Chicago must go better than 12-4 this season and make the SB.
GB must go 6-9-1 or worse.. and miss the playoffs by a wide margin
We can revisit this thread and see which philosophy worked the best. Yours or the GBP
 

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Looks like Crawford or Ty Summers is going to start at ILB on Thursday. Defenses are only as good as their weakest link. ILB is a big problem right now. Expect a lot of first down runs of 6, 7 or 8 yards running straight at Lowry and one of those two. If Martinez gets hurt, then the run defense could be a bad joke. With a lot of second and short situations, the Packers base defense will be on the field for a lot more snaps. After the core of Clark, Alexander, Z, Martinez, Amos and Savage who I think is going to be good, the remaining five guys are mediocre at best if you look at their production and skip the off season hype.
 

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Looks like Crawford or Ty Summers is going to start at ILB on Thursday. Defenses are only as good as their weakest link. ILB is a big problem right now. Expect a lot of first down runs of 6, 7 or 8 yards running straight at Lowry and one of those two. If Martinez gets hurt, then the run defense could be a bad joke. With a lot of second and short situations, the Packers base defense will be on the field for a lot more snaps. After the core of Clark, Alexander, Z, Martinez, Amos and Savage who I think is going to be good, the remaining five guys are mediocre at best if you look at their production and skip the off season hype.
yup. the ilb situation and daniels cut have made the middle more dicey than last season.
 
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Looks like Crawford or Ty Summers is going to start at ILB on Thursday. Defenses are only as good as their weakest link. ILB is a big problem right now. Expect a lot of first down runs of 6, 7 or 8 yards running straight at Lowry and one of those two. If Martinez gets hurt, then the run defense could be a bad joke. With a lot of second and short situations, the Packers base defense will be on the field for a lot more snaps. After the core of Clark, Alexander, Z, Martinez, Amos and Savage who I think is going to be good, the remaining five guys are mediocre at best if you look at their production and skip the off season hype.
2018 Za’darius Smith in 716 snaps:
45 tackles
10 TFL
8.5 sacks
25 QB hits
1 forced fumble
2 pass deflections.

COMP

2018 Clay Mathews in 761 snaps:
43 tackles
7 TFL
3.5 sacks
12 QB hits
1 forced fumble
0 pass deflections.

Zadarius played an entire game less of snaps and out performed CM3 in every conceivable stat. All this while being used as a hybrid LB/DT. Clay was primarily an OLB his entire career (you’d expect more Sacks at that position) and the only year he matched or beat the bulk of those 2018 stats? 2010, his rookie season.

We’ve basically got very similar to a 2010 version of Clay, but more well rounded. He’s probably the best player on this Defense and he best be accounted for on every snap.

If any 1 of the grouping of Montravius, Preston or a Rashan (just 1) have a career year. We will be absolutely a load to handle. Were 1 player stepping up from being a top 10 D IMO.

The more I think about it. We play such a small amount of base. I’m comfortable with having an extra Safety (Raven etc..) there in the middle with Martinez until Burks gets back. I don’t think we’re as outgunned as many are portraying.
 
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TomBrownFan40

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I'll be looking to see if Lafleur/Rodgers are on the same page and serious about running the ball more and moving the chains as opposed to relying on the big play. I agree the defense has been awful at getting off the field but, we can't continue to have three quarters of 3 incomplete passes and a punt and expect the defense to hold up. If that happens and the Smith boys earn their pay, I think this pass defense can be very good. Like everyone above, I'm concerned about the run defense. If the front seven by committee can stay healthy and fresh perhaps the run defense can improve too. That's a lot of ifs but, a top half of the league defense is a reasonable goal.
 
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greengold

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But NOW...we have the results of pre-season Game #4 to further bolster our previously unsupported opinions. Frankly, when I say I'm bolstering my preseason predictions, I'm LITERALLY tossing my preseason predictions in a bolster somewhere.

Pack defense gave up 25 points per game finishing 22nd out of 32... 400 points... that is the worst in the North Division.

HOWEVER, if we need something to hang our defensive helmets on, the Pack finished 18th in total yardage yielded. Some would argue this is an important stat in that excessive yardage yielded leads to the 400 points referred to prior. Fair enough.

Pack defense in 2018 finished 12th in yardage yielded via the pass. Good thing? Sure... except that 12th of 32 teams was STILL the worst in the division. That kinda sucks, eh? Do something well and still get slapped upside the head for by ol' weedsie boy.

...oh yeah...and let us not forget ... 22nd against the run. Again... worst in the division. Did the Pack earn their 6-9-1 record? Oh, I'd say they did and it wasn't because Aaron was playing hurt. It was because the defense couldn't get off the field.

The offensive woes are a book in and of itself - beginning with a non-existent running game and what not. I would argue that the Pack's offensive problems contributed BIG TIME to the Pack's defensive woes because the offense couldn't stay ON the field.

Defensively, last year? OK - new system. New coordinator...blah blah blah. The defensive issues of the last 8 years are well documented. Well documented because they were so damned evident. Many have commented that they saw marked improvement over Dom's defenses - well, you're better judges of teams than me then, because all I saw was 400 friggen points yielded. Choosing between Dom's defense and what we had last year is like choosing the less ugly sister to head off to the hay mow with. Nah...

Consequently, I'm going to reign in any defensive expectations for 2019 ... and be pleasantly surprised if and when these guys can find their ***** with both hands.

That's my bold prediction for this year.

weeds, you’re SO RIGHT! Our D got worn out bigtime as a result of poor scheming and coaching on O, as well as both having suffered from lack of talent at key positions and injuries.

This season, Pettine has all the pieces he wants/needs to run his scheme. LaFleur has every position filled with great talent as well. This team is going to be very, very different from anything we’ve seen in years.

The O finally has a playcaller who will extend TOP using the run, and protect his QB more with the run. Loaded with dynamic playmakers, I believe they will extend drives and keep our D on the sidelines more.

Conversely, I believe our D is loaded with dynamic players as well. They will be giving the O the ball far more opportunities by creating TOs.

It’s the Packers way to hinge everything on a first ballot QB and hope draft picks can develop into stars. Yes TT is gone, but a lot of him rubbed off on Gute. People always talk about “mortgaging the future” but the point is to win the SB every year...not 3 or 4 yrs from now smh.

Doesn’t make sense at all. Gutes signed 3 FAs, all of them effective, ascending players who stay healthy historically, to bolster the D. Further supported with 2 first round picks there.

I just happen to disagree with your characterization of Gutes.

As for Pettine, quite a slam, but, he now has the players to make his scheme successful. Maybe the most complete set of players he’s ever had. Let’s see what he does with the right tools for the job.

ILB an issue to many. Let’s see. I believe we are fine there. My opinion. Thinking back a LONG time, if your greatest weakness on your D is a rookie ILB who led the NFL in tackles preseason... with one of his four games being his worst ever, and still led the NFL preseason...

When have we taken more talent on D onto the field? ‘96-97? 2010? 9 years.

Give Pettine a shot to see what he does with this.
 
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weeds

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weeds, you’re SO RIGHT! Our D got worn out bigtime as a result of poor scheming and coaching on O, as well as both having suffered from lack of talent at key positions and injuries.

This season


Doesn’t make sense at all. Gutes signed 3 FAs, all of them effective, ascending players who stay healthy historically, to bolster the D. Further supported with 2 first round picks there.

I just happen to disagree with your characterization of Gutes.

As for Pettine, quite a slam, but, he now has the players to make his scheme successful. Maybe the most complete set of players he’s ever had. Let’s see what he does with the right tools for the job.

ILB an issue to many. Let’s see. I believe we are fine there. My opinion. Thinking back a LONG time, if your greatest weakness on your D is a rookie ILB who led the NFL in tackles preseason... with one of his four games being his worst ever, and still led the NFL preseason...

When have we taken more talent on D onto the field? ‘96-97? 2010? 9 years.

Give Pettine a shot to see what he does with this.

...but...but...but.... I didn't characterize Gutes. Didn't even bring up his name - mainly because I can't spell it right and truthfully am AFRAID to mispronounce it. He has one year under his belt...and so far, his first year + kind of mirrors Ted Thompson's first year. Anyone that isn't predisposed to hate Thompson and is willing to give Gute a chance will see (or at least discover) the similarities. With the exception of drafting a QB ... it's like it's deja vu all over again.

Same with Pettine ... those who wanted Dom Capers gone (that's me too) seem to be looking for vast and pronounced improvements from Dom's final to Mike's first season. Well...those vast and pronounced improvements weren't there - not really. Mind you, I flipped handsprings and shat nickels (I had to rent a coin roller - those damned nickels all over are a safety hazard) when Capers was "retired" - but when all is said and done, the drum beating on Pettine's defense has been done by those who were proponents of "anyone but Dom". I'm not built that way. I thought Dom's defensive schemes were too complex for the "minds" the Pack on the field...and Capers just refused to simplify (or, dumb it down, if you will) for the talent he had.

As for talent on the field ... I don't know. I'm not an NFL talent evaluator but I am not one of those who thought that the 2010 defense was all that. Granted, they did what was needed in the second half of the season right through the Super Bowl to put up some dandy stats and I'm glad they did...BUT...throughout that 2010 season right through the SB, I was scared that the defense from the first half of the season was going to reappear at any time. Fortunately, that defense didn't return until the 2011 season.
 

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