Division Check-In

[Dantés]

The boredom of the bye week is setting in. I thought I would check in and see how the NFC North is stacking up in some key areas.

Starting with the obvious...

Standings:

1. Packers: 8-2
2. Vikings: 8-3
3. Bears: 4-6
4. Lions: 3-6-1

DVOA:

1. Vikings: 6th overall; 7th Offensive; 8th Defensive; 13th ST
2. Packers: 8th overall; 6th Offensive; 19th Defensive; 15th ST
3. Lions: 16th overall; 12th Offensive; 25th Defensive; 2nd ST
4. Bears: 20th overall; 26th Offensive; 5th Defensive; 4th ST

Strength of Schedule (1st being hardest):

1. Packers: 9th
2. Lions: 13th
3. Bears: 16th
4. Vikings: 18th

Scoring Differential:

1. Vikings: +7.6/game (5th)
2. Packers: +4.5/game (7th)
3. Bears: -.5/game (18th)
4. Lions: -2.8 (21st)

Points per Game:

1. Vikings: 26.3 (8th)
2. Packers: 25 (9th)
3. Lions: 24.4 (11th)
4. Bears: 16.9 (28th)

Drive Success Rate (% of drives that end in points):

1. Vikings: 42.7% (4th)
2. Packers: 39.8% (11th)
3. Lions: 38.1% (15th)
4. Bears: 26.4% (28th)

Drive Turnover Rate (% of drives that end in a turnover):

1. Packers: 5.6% (2nd)
2. Bears: 8.2% (7th)
3. Vikings: 9.4% (9th)
4. Lions: 9.7% (10th)

Net Yards per Pass:

1. Vikings: 7.6 (3rd)
2. Lions: 7.3 (5th)
3. Packers: 6.9 (10th)
4. Bears: 4.9 (32nd)

Yards per Rush Attempt:

1. Vikings: 4.6 (8th)
2. Packers: 4.2 (19th)
3. Lions: 3.8 (23rd)
4. Bears: 3.5 (29th)

Penalties:

1. Lions: 81 (6th)
2. Vikings: 74 (13th)
3. Bears: 69 (22nd)
4. Packers: 68 (23rd)

Points Allowed per Game:

1. Bears: 17.4 (4th)
2. Vikings: 18.6 (5th)
3. Packers: 20.5 (14th)
4. Lions: 27.2 (27th)

Yards per Pass Allowed:

1. Bears: 6.8 (6th)
2. Vikings: 6.9 (11th)
3. Packers: 7.9 (24th- TIE)
4. Lions: 7.9 (24th- TIE)

Sack %:

1. Vikings: 7.0 (13th)
2. Packers: 6.7 (20th)
3. Bears: 6.5 (21st)
4. Lions: 5.0 (28th)

Yards per Rush Attempt Allowed:

1. Bears: 3.6 (4th)
2. Vikings: 4.1 (12th)
3. Lions: 4.5 (21st)
4. Packers: 4.8 (28th)

Drive Success Rate Allowed:

1. Bears: 28.4 (4th)
2. Vikings: 35.4 (14th)
3. Packers: 35.5 (15th)
4. Lions: 41.1 (26th)

Turnover Differential:

1. Packers: +8 (3rd)
2. Vikings: +4 (9th- TIE)
3. Bears: +4 (9th- TIE)
4. Lions: +1 (14th)

 

[XPack]

Strength of Schedule (1st being hardest):

1. Packers: 9th
2. Lions: 13th
3. Bears: 16th
4. Vikings: 18th

Vikings play Seahawks and Chargers plus divisional three.
We play 49ers, Giants and Redskins plus divisional three.

Honestly Seahawks are in better form in recent matches than 49ers.

 

[elcid]

In essence, the Vikings have been better in sustaining drives and stopping drives. Whereas we have the edge on the turnovers, as we barely turn the ball over and have been good in taking the ball from the opponent. I'd be very interested to see how we will fare against them in the rematch.

 

[Dantés]

Vikings play Seahawks and Chargers plus divisional three.
We play 49ers, Giants and Redskins plus divisional three.

Honestly Seahawks are in better form in recent matches than 49ers.

Statistically, the Vikings have been slightly better than the Packers, but against an easier slate of games.

The Vikings have played four teams with winning records, going 2-2 in those games. They have also played five teams with 3 wins or fewer, winning all of them.

The Packers have also played four teams with winning records, going 4-0 in those games. But they've only seen two teams with 3 wins or fewer, winning both.

That's the difference right now. While the Vikings have had the Falcons (3-7), Redskins (1-9), and Giants (2-8), the Packers have had the Panthers (5-5) and Chargers (4-6). The Vikings have one more game under their belt now as the Packers are on their bye and the Vikings are heading into theirs. That's why we're comparing three teams to two.

But this will reverse course in fairly short order. After the 49ers (9-1), the Packers have games against three more teams with 3 or fewer wins (Giants, Redskins, and Lions), plus the reeling 4-6 Bears. The Vikings themselves will be the only remaining quality opponent. The Vikings will only have one such game remaining (the Lions) as they've played the bottom-feeding teams already.

All of that to say that it will be interesting to revisit this at season's end and see how the schedule shift affected the results.

 

[HardRightEdge]

All of that to say that it will be interesting to revisit this at season's end and see how the schedule shift affected the results.

That's the best way to look at it, a point of future interest. Strength of schedule can be a fickle predictor. Some teams crater, some build momentum. And a lot of stuff can happen with respect to injuries, an aspect where both teams have been fortunate to date. The fact the Packers have 4 of 6 on the road while the Vikings have 3 of 5 at home may be a bigger factor that strength of schedule.

The one thing we do know among all the variables and unknows is that there's a two game swing on the line in Week 16. The outome of that one game is as likely to be the deciding factor as any other.

 

[PackinMSP]

Thanks for the info.

The Packers have had BY FAR the toughest schedule though if you look at those numbers.

This is especially true b/c you have to consider them BEATING up on the Vikings, Bears and Lions and yet they STILL HAVE the toughest schedule.

*So if you take away the "loss" the Packers have given to them, the Strength of Schedule is even TOUGHER actually.

So we will have to see how this all shapes up