Dillon.......keeping defenses honest.

[Patriotplayer90]

One Henry missed game proves what? Proved that an NFL team can throw the ball and score 28 points? Haven’t the packers done that a million times without running? Did the Titans win that game without Henry? We can all agree that NFL teams can all score in a plethora of ways. The point of a good running game is to control the clock, keep your defense fresh, and keep explosive offenses (Chiefs) off the field.

They threw the ball 27 times. Rushed for 149 yards at 5.7 YPC. Sounds like Henry was still in the game, if you didn't know any better...

 

[Dantés]

Gute also said that Love is a Packer because that’s how the board fell. Hmmm... pretty sure we moved up.

Sure, you can choose to believe him or not, but I think he's trustworthy in this case. I doubt any team in the NFL values the RB position above WR. Maybe Gettleman, but he isn't exactly the norm.

 

[Fat Dogs]

They threw the ball 27 times. Rushed for 149 yards at 5.7 YPC. Sounds like Henry was still in the game, if you didn't know any better...

I think that you forgot to mention that A.J. Brown had 1 carry for 49 yards. Subtract that carry and we get a pretty modest 100 yards. Henry had playoff games of 195 and 182. He also ended the regular season with a 211, 103, 149, 159, and 188. I think these are pretty eye popping stats

 

[CanadaCheese]

I think that you forgot to mention that A.J. Brown had 1 carry for 49 yards. Subtract that carry and we get a pretty modest 100 yards. Henry had playoff games of 195 and 182. He also ended the regular season with a 211, 103, 149, 159, and 188. I think these are pretty eye popping stats

He’s an eye popping player

 

[OldSchool101]

Interesting. People point at the draft Ray Nitschke was in as being a great draft. I am pretty sure that Nitschke was drafted as a fullback and Lombardi had him try out as a ML.

Yeah. While you probably realized I said it sarcastically, Dillon looks like a LB. let me tell you, with that stiff arm, he’s not going to be fun to tackle in the open field, especially for a smaller S or CB. Where Lacy would allow third level players to jump on and he’d carry them, Dillon likes to challenge the secondary with his arm strength and toss them. I want to see him steamroll Sherman, that would be my early Bday present.

 

[Fat Dogs]

Sure, you can choose to believe him or not, but I think he's trustworthy in this case. I doubt any team in the NFL values the RB position above WR. Maybe Gettleman, but he isn't exactly the norm.

I have no doubt in my mind that the packers are more than comfortable with what they have at Receiver. They came into the draft with one purpose. Get LaFleur what he needs to run his offense period. Nothing else makes sense.

 

[Patriotplayer90]

I think that you forgot to mention that A.J. Brown had 1 carry for 49 yards. Subtract that carry and we get a pretty modest 100 yards. Henry had playoff games of 195 and 182. He also ended the regular season with a 211, 103, 149, 159, and 188. I think these are pretty eye popping stats

You just may want to look at how Henry was doing the first 6 games without the threat of a QB to soften things up for him.

 

[Pugger]

At first I didn't like the player or the pick. Now I I just don't like the pick, think it was too early. Either way that irrelevant now and the player has me pretty stoked. Especially hearing that he's a good receiver, that's surprising as I thought I'd read he was not but that may have just been someone looking at stats not the actual images. If he can improve as a pass blocker I think having him and Aaron Jones on the field at the same time on a 3rd down is gonna be tough for a defense to defend.

Also at first I thought maybe they're not gonna resign Jones but I don't think that's the case now. I think maybe they're not gonna resign Williams and Dillion is his replacement/upgrade

If he turns out to be a good one we won't care when we drafted him or if we took him too early in the end.

 

[Pugger]

I salivate at the idea of running 12 personnel with this beast behind Rodgers. How do you defend this? 12 personnel is extremely hard to game plan against with a an average sized RB. Yes, it’s a run first scheme but it’s designed to allow 4 receivers to get vertical quickly. This puts defenses in a quandary right away because of its Equal run/pass conflict. We saw this first hand. Go small and get run over. Go big and Rodgers will eat you alive with play action.

This must be the thinking behind these picks last weekend.

 

[Fat Dogs]

You just may want to look at how Henry was doing the first 6 games without the threat of a QB to soften things up for him.

That’s my point. This is the NFL. Teams Can’t be one dimensional. It’s easy to stack the box without the threat of a good QB and vice versa. A QB’s best friend is a good run game and that goes both ways.

I also looked into Henry’s 2018 stats and his best games were at the end of the season. Same exact thing with Dillon last year. AJ’s 3 best statical games transpired the second half of the season. Can this be a bigger back thing? Maybe Defenses are beat up and have a harder time dealing with the physicality of big backs towards the end of the season? Makes sense.

 

[Dantés]

I have no doubt in my mind that the packers are more than comfortable with what they have at Receiver. They came into the draft with one purpose. Get LaFleur what he needs to run his offense period. Nothing else makes sense.

I would disagree with you. I think Gutekunst wanted a WR, and it just didn't work out for him.

 

[gopkrs]

Yeah. While you probably realized I said it sarcastically, Dillon looks like a LB. let me tell you, with that stiff arm, he’s not going to be fun to tackle in the open field, especially for a smaller S or CB. Where Lacy would allow third level players to jump on and he’d carry them, Dillon likes to challenge the secondary with his arm strength and toss them. I want to see him steamroll Sherman, that would be my early Bday present.

There were a couple of undrafted that we signed that are supposedly DEs. But they are light for DEs/OLB. Don't know their speeds but maybe they can take a shot at ML for running downs. Even if we don't run a base D often; we still do run it. And against san fran...

 

[Deleted member 11740]

I have read the whole thread.

1) This is what MLF needs to setup his offense. It may be run first but it’s not ground and pound by any means.
2) We proved we can run the ball last year even with a pass protecting line so why not improve on that with a back who will run downhill for an average of 3-5 yards every play.
3) We have all seen over the last 10 seasons that it’s so much easier for playoff quality teams to defend against Rodgers and McCarthy’s 1 dimensional pass first game plan.
4) Our best offensive games last year were all when we featured a 2 RB/FB backfield even on passing downs. I was high on Vitale as a blocker and he seemed to be open a lot before he got injured and our offense tanked. Part of the reason I think we let him go was that we could get a better version cheaper in the draft. And that is now true with Dillon and Deguara combo.
5) If Aaron Jones gets injured our O game plan is screwed. I’m much less worried about that now.
6) We have seen Rodgers miss large amounts of games in recent seasons due to getting sacked too much. This offense buys him way more time to pass and forces defences to pick their poison. If this is a plan that helps keeps Rodgers on the field I’m all for it!
7) I think our WR group is more than serviceable and more concerned about our defensive depth.
8) Didnt love the pick at first but am slowly warming to it.

Look forward to the feedback.

 

[RepStar15]

I am excited fans are starting to realize the player the packers received in AJ Dillion. This is the most excited I have been about a draft pick in years. This kid is going to be a stud and I am going to have a hard time choosing between a Z Smith and AJ Dillion jersey this season.

 

[Curly Calhoun]

Opposing cornerbacks beware.
He is as big as the linebackers trying to tackle him.... They insist on this one cut zone scheme. And now they have a big fullback sizes running back that runs a 4.5 40!? Lol. One cut and pound it is the plan. The 4.5 speed should be enough to make them pay if he breaks through. I'm hoping he is one of those "faster than his 40" types of guys. Considering he got his 248 pounds across the line in 4.51 seconds. He may surprise with another gear??? Like Jordy surprised...
Even if he doesn't... I guarantee we didn't draft him for his speed. If I remember he had a 41 " vert and 130+" broad ... I was like huh!?
Didn't draft him for that either. Although his burst is going to be impressive.
He is a tank. He will get the hard yard .He will finish the runs. And he will be able to take the pounding of 20+ carries a game if we need... That imo is why we drafted him... One cut and point it . 250 pound torpedo.....

Strategically. It's going to open up our entire offense. You think those quick CBS are going to be effective against our new monster rb? Doubt it. You think the safety/lb tweeners are going to be effective? Eh..... I like our chances.....


Big burst. Big guy. Big speed.... Going to force defenses to play bigger....

That will open up the field for #12... Big time .

For anyone interested, interesting analysis of what Dillon brings to the Pack here:

https://lombardiave.com/2020/04/23/get-green-bay-packers-face-covering-today/

 

[tynimiller]

BS....in the second Mims was easily within reach and Duverney was available.

If folks think Dillon in the 2nd is a reach, Duvernay in the second most definitely would have been as well. I personally believe Pittman and Hamler (possibly Claypool) were the two WRs on Day 2 Gute has clearly said they were trying to get (he didn't mention names directly but said there were two guys) and they merely couldn't find a suitor for the trade. It could have also been Laviska, Van Jefferson and Mims as well but Mims & Jefferson went nearly at our pick and it sounded like he stopped trying about half way through as their was not a target they had valued high enough.

By the time our 62 pick came I only saw one for sure walk in and have 50% chance or better at being opening day WR2 and that was Bryan Edwards. Honestly once Edwards went Duvernay was my last circled guy with true year one potential but he wasn't worth trading up but if he'd been there for our 3rd rounder could very well have been the pick.

 

[PackinMSP]

I've liked the Dillon pick from the beginning, I see him as a Stephen Jackson type

 

[rmontro]

He is as big as the linebackers trying to tackle him.

Just make sure no one introduces him to the cheese curds.

 

[Dantés]

A.J. Dillon is huge, but he is not fat.

You must be logged in to see this image or video!

 

[GleefulGary]

I'm taking this data from PFF, btw.

Some fun stats on Dillon.

For his career, he had 636 attempts against a stacked box. He ran for 3197 yards on those carries, 2154 of those yards coming after contact. He lost two fumbles on those carries. 133 missed tackles forced.

So what can we learn from this?

- 67% of his yards gained came after contact. This means he was getting hit early (after 2 yards) and still gaining another 3 after that. Impressive.

- He played with an OL, and a scheme, that was not advantageous for him. In fact, he had more carries against a stacked box than anybody else in college football. For reference, Jonathan Taylor ran for 5.5 yards against a stacked box with a far superior OL.

- It shows us that Dillon is not very elusive. He's not going to try to make people miss.

- It shows evidence of good ball security. It somewhat shows Dillon had natural hands, which should lend to a good pass catching back.

- I think it shows that he's a very good back that was used fairly poorly. To our benefit.

 

[tynimiller]

I want to attempt to find and compare his usage vs some others coming in to the league. That is the ONLY think I'm concerned with him...and the scary thing is if we use him LESS per game than he was in college, could he dare I say be better??

His smoothness in short routes is impressive for a often touted "Ground and Pound" type RB...and his hands when asked to deliver do just that!

 

[Mondio]

I'm taking this data from PFF, btw.



- It shows evidence of good ball security. It somewhat shows Dillon had natural hands, which should lend to a good pass catching back.

- I think it shows that he's a very good back that was used fairly poorly. To our benefit.

One thing I noticed right away when people were talking about him not being a passing threat, was he looked very natural as a pass catcher. Nice soft hands, not double clutching or fumbling his feet trying to track the ball, just nice and smooth.

 

[tynimiller]

I was reminded of a coach in high school that had a saying for the offensive skill positions, "Some guys will reach the ball out to gain that extra yard...others will win that extra yard first."

Dillon reminds me of the dude that my coach would have loved. He doesn't concede an inch until he's down...why reach out a yard and give up, when he can grind a couple yards attacking.

I mean it does help when you are a LB with running back skills LOL

 

[Sunshinepacker]

First... to the bolded statement... lol. Fans tend to be pretty arrogant in their opinions about the draft, but that's a special kind of stupid. The Ravens, Chiefs, and Colts especially are three of the smartest organizations in football right now.

Secondly, let's just take Aaron Jones' draft year as an example.

18 running backs went on day 3:

• Samaje Perine
• Tarik Cohen
• Joe Williams
• Donnel Pumphrey
• Jamaal Williams
• Wayne Gallman
• Marlon Mack
• Brian Hill
• Jeremy McNichols
• T.J. Logan
• Aaron Jones
• Elijah McGuire
• De'Angelo Henderson
• Devante Mays
• Khalfani Muhammad
• Elijah Hood
• Chris Carson
• Matthew Dayes

So of 18 picks, three teams found players capable of being starting backs or lead committee backs. 17%.

8 running backs went on day 1/2:

• Leonard Fournette
• Christian McCaffrey
• Dalvin Cook
• Joe Mixon
• Alvin Kamara
• Kareem Hunt
• D'Onta Foreman
• James Conner

Fournette has been productive, but we will exclude him because of how inefficient he is. Foreman actually looked quite promising before suffering a horrific injury his rookie year, but we will exclude him too.

So that's 6 out of 8 players who are capable of being starting backs or lead committee backs. 75%.

There's your difference. Not only are you far more like to be successful in finding the guy you need in rounds 1-3, you're also far more likely to find a player with the ability to be a difference maker.

When teams need or want running backs, they need or want running backs... not a 15-20% chance to secure a running back.

I understand that the positional value is low, and I would not support taking a back in the 1st round unless it was truly a special player, but you're taking it to a deranged extreme. Taking shots on day 3 is a great idea if you're adding depth and hoping to get lucky. If you want help immediately, it's not a great strategy.

Here's another helpful indicator. There were 17 backs who had 1200 yards from scrimmage last year (rushing/receiving combined)-- 3 of them were day 3 picks or undrafted... 18%.

So to make a long story short, your claim that you can just go out and find 90-95% of the value on day 3 at will is a pile of ********.

Ok, now go through all the other positions and then tell me which ones are easier to find production for in day 3. Or, just pretend that RBs have to be taken in in day 1 or 2. My argument was NEVER that round 1 or 2 RBs were BAD, it was that you can find really good RBs late in the draft. You also conveniently left out how many of those RBs were drafted by teams with bad QBs early in the draft. You go ahead and stick with Eddie Lacy in the 2nd. I'll go for Aaron Jones in the fifth.

 

[tynimiller]

I think you missed Dante's point entirely.