Dez or Brian?

[Deleted member 6794]

Question is this---

Is or was Dez the only play making Wr on Dallas in that time frame? if so, then that makes sense he has a higher TD % then the Packer WR

Where as with the Packers- there at at least 2 capable Wr that split the TD %

Or is that thinking wrong?

Well, as the TD percentage is based on targets as well I think it doesn´t make a difference if there´s another playmaker on the team. Bryant caught a TD every 10.9 targets with Nelson (11.4) and Cobb (12.4) slightly behind him.

 

[longtimefan]

Well, as the TD percentage is based on targets as well I think it doesn´t make a difference if there´s another playmaker on the team. Bryant caught a TD every 10.9 targets with Nelson (11.4) and Cobb (12.4) slightly behind him.

My thinking is with Dez being the only play making WR on a team, he will get more opportunities

Or is that thinking wrong?

 

[Deleted member 6794]

My thinking is with Dez being the only play making WR on a team, he will get more opportunities

Or is that thinking wrong?

Bryant (609) has been targeted more often than Nelson (511) and Cobb (309) since 2010. A statistic based on success per target takes that into consideration though.

BTW Bryant is ranked 9th overall in targets over the last five seasons but still leads the NFL in TD catches since entering the league.

 

[longtimefan]

Bryant (609) has been targeted more often than Nelson (511) and Cobb (309) since 2010. A statistic based on success per target takes that into consideration though.

BTW Bryant is ranked 9th overall in targets over the last five seasons but still leads the NFL in TD catches since entering the league.

Who are the top 8? I dont think being in top 9 skews my way of thinking.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

Who are the top 8? I dont think being in top 9 skews my way of thinking.

Calvin Johnson (783), Brandon Marshall (749), Roddy White (723), Larry Fitzgerald (721), Andre Johnson (678), Reggie Wayne (676), Wes Welker (645) and Steve Smith (611).

 

[HardRightEdge]

The question could also be posed as would you prefer Dez+Jordy-Cobb at WR and Barclay at RT or Bulaga at RT with Jordy+Cobb at WR. Even with Dez being an elite WR the drop off from him to Cobb is no where as big as the drop off from Bulaga to Barclay

I don't think there is enough ball to go around to justify 3 receivers at $10 mil per year each. That's simply too much money allocated to the position group.

 

[HardRightEdge]

Calvin Johnson (783), Brandon Marshall (749), Roddy White (723), Larry Fitzgerald (721), Andre Johnson (678), Reggie Wayne (676), Wes Welker (645) and Steve Smith (611).

I got my numbers from espn.com which shows Bryant as having 611 and Johnson 784. I guess there can be occasional disagreements between sources as to who is actually being thrown the ball.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

I got my numbers from espn.com which shows Bryant as having 611 and Johnson 784. I guess there can be occasional disagreements between sources as to who is actually being thrown the ball.

I used Pro Football Reference to come up with my numbers. Sometimes their stats differ slightly from other sources but their play index offers several comfortable tools to get personalized stats I can't find anywhere else.

 

[HardRightEdge]

I used Pro Football Reference to come up with my numbers. Sometimes their stats differ slightly from other sources but their play index offers several comfortable tools to get personalized stats I can't find anywhere else.

I figured as much. All the unofficial stats (targets, pass drops, tackles, missed tackles, hits, hurries, etc., etc. etc.) are bound to have variations from source to source.

 

[HardRightEdge]

No love for Antonio Brown?

As a #4 - #13 second tier player? Sure, why not. That's some love. But he does not get into my elite group on the basis of two big years. If he can put together a third back-to-back, then that's another conversation.

My criteria is blend of past performance with expectations for this season.

A little guy like Brown who does a lot of possession receiving, was thrown an average of 174 balls the last two years to get to those numbers, and who also returns punts would be an elevated injury risk in my book.

Here's an example of what can happen over time as injuries accumulate:

http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/C/CruzVi00.htm

 

[longtimefan]

2014

Dez had 138 targets 88 rec, 63 % and 16 tds

Jordy had 151 targets 98 rec, 64% and 13 tds

Cobb had 126 targets 91 rec .72 % and 12 tds

My theory is wrong, Dallas WR had less targets tossed their way


http://espn.go.com/nfl/team/stats/_/name/GB

Packers had 536 total targets



http://espn.go.com/nfl/team/stats/_/name/dal

Dalls had 476 total targets

 

[vince]

If the Packers had drafted Dez, I don't think there's any way that Dez, Jordy and Cobb are all on this team right now. Hell if Dez would have been drafted by GB back in 2010, Jordy may not have emerged to become a the bonafide #1 receiver that he's become since then. That year with Jennings, Driver, Dez, and possibly Jones all ahead of him... I remember the days when there were legitimate Jones vs. Nelson debates.

So I think you're looking realistically at Dez and Barclay vs. Jordy and Bulaga.

Dez has obviously outplayed, outproduced and generally outperformed Bulaga to date. But right here right now I take Jorday and Bulaga over Dez and Barclay - especially for this team's overall construction. Protecting the franchise, especially when he tends to hold onto the ball a long time, is too important.

 

[adambr2]

As a #4 - #13 second tier player? Sure, why not. That's some love. But he does not get into my elite group on the basis of two big years. If he can put together a third back-to-back, then that's another conversation.

My criteria is blend of past performance with expectations for this season.

A little guy like Brown who does a lot of possession receiving, was thrown an average of 174 balls the last two years to get to those numbers, and who also returns punts would be an elevated injury risk in my book.

Here's an example of what can happen over time as injuries accumulate:

http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/C/CruzVi00.htm

If your criteria is past performance and expectations for this season Brown is definitely near the top of my list. In 2013 he was 2nd in receptions and 2nd in yardage, last year 1st in receptions, 1st in yardage, 2nd in TDs.

Different judgments I guess, but 2 years as a top player at his position is definitely enough for me to put him in my elite category. He may have a higher injury risks returning punts assuming they keep him in that role, but I can't see penalizing him for his versatility.

 

[HardRightEdge]

If your criteria is past performance and expectations for this season Brown is definitely near the top of my list. In 2013 he was 2nd in receptions and 2nd in yardage, last year 1st in receptions, 1st in yardage, 2nd in TDs.

Different judgments I guess, but 2 years as a top player at his position is definitely enough for me to put him in my elite category. He may have a higher injury risks returning punts assuming they keep him in that role, but I can't see penalizing him for his versatility.

I'm not penalizing him for his versatility. I'm not putting him with my top 3 for the reasons stated.

 

[brandon2348]

If the Packers had drafted Dez, I don't think there's any way that Dez, Jordy and Cobb are all on this team right now. Hell if Dez would have been drafted by GB back in 2010, Jordy may not have emerged to become a the bonafide #1 receiver that he's become since then. That year with Jennings, Driver, Dez, and possibly Jones all ahead of him... I remember the days when there were legitimate Jones vs. Nelson debates.

So I think you're looking realistically at Dez and Barclay vs. Jordy and Bulaga.

Dez has obviously outplayed, outproduced and generally outperformed Bulaga to date. But right here right now I take Jorday and Bulaga over Dez and Barclay - especially for this team's overall construction. Protecting the franchise, especially when he tends to hold onto the ball a long time, is too important.

Yes and last year we got to see Jordy and Sherrod and that was quite painful to witness.

 

[HardRightEdge]

2014

Dez had 138 targets 88 rec, 63 % and 16 tds

Jordy had 151 targets 98 rec, 64% and 13 tds

Cobb had 126 targets 91 rec .72 % and 12 tds

My theory is wrong, Dallas WR had less targets tossed their way


http://espn.go.com/nfl/team/stats/_/name/GB

Packers had 536 total targets



http://espn.go.com/nfl/team/stats/_/name/dal

Dalls had 476 total targets

Upon close examination, the most productive WRs in the league on a per target basis last season were Cobb and Bryant.

 

[longtimefan]

Upon close examination, the most productive WRs in the league on a per snap basis last season were Cobb and Bryant.

I was under impression or believed, that with 2 legit WR on the Packers, (Jordy and Cobb) they wouldnt get the same amount of chances to score a TD as team with only one legit WR ---Aka- Dez

 

[RRyder]

I was under impression or believed, that with 2 legit WR on the Packers, (Jordy and Cobb) they wouldnt get the same amount of chances to score a TD as team with only one legit WR ---Aka- Dez

To be fair Dallas ran the ball quite a bit more then us last year. Not looking up numbers to back that up but I'm sure someone will

 

[HardRightEdge]

I was under impression or believed, that with 2 legit WR on the Packers, (Jordy and Cobb) they wouldnt get the same amount of chances to score a TD as team with only one legit WR ---Aka- Dez

I mistyped "snap" instead of "target". I hope that didn't cause confusion.

As to your comment, the target counts say otherwise, at least in 2014.

Dallas threw the ball 476 times in 2014. The only team that threw less was Seattle (454). Dallas ran the ball 508 times, second only to Seattle (525). While we might associated Romo with throwing the ball all over the field in past seasons, in 2014 he played game manager in 2014 in a run-first offense as Wilson does in Seattle. The key stat: Murray carried the ball an insane 392 times.

Further, having only one legit WR is a double-edged sword. On the one hand, he's likely to get a larger share of whatever targets the QB dishes. On the other hand he'll draw more double teams. Bryant got the short end of the stick on both counts in 2014. His team did not throw the ball that much and when they did he was the focus of the secondary.

 

[longtimefan]

I mistyped "snap" instead of "target". I hope that didn't cause confusion.

As to your comment, the target counts say otherwise, at least in 2014.

Dallas threw the ball 476 times in 2014. The only team that threw less was Seattle (454). Dallas ran the ball 508 times, second only to Seattle (525). While we might associated Romo with throwing the ball all over the field in past season, in 2014 he played game manager in 2014 in a run-first offense as Wilson does in Seattle. The key stat: Murray carried the ball an insane 392 times.

Further, having only one legit WR is a double-edged sword. On the one hand, he's likely to get a larger share of whatever targets the QB dishes. On the other hand he'll draw more double teams. Bryant got the short end of the stick on both counts in 2014. His team did not throw the ball that much and when they did he was the focus of the secondary.

Dez had less targets thrown to him then Jordy but more Tds

that is all I was wondering

 

[GBDreamer]

Dez is a huge talent, but would you really want him on your team? We made the right call.