Comps

[Half Empty]

Didn't see anything here on this yet -

https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/...winners-as-nfl-hands-out-32-additional-picks/

 

[XPack]

Pats get more picks. Disgusting.

 

[sschind]

Pats get more picks. Disgusting.

Who did they lose to get such high picks?

 

[Mondio]

Who did they lose to get such high picks?

That was my initial thought too, and still I’m too lazy to actually go look. I don’t remember any big guys being signed away, though I often forget what day it is too so...

 

[GleefulGary]

That was my initial thought too, and still I’m too lazy to actually go look. I don’t remember any big guys being signed away, though I often forget what day it is too so...

Malcolm Butler and Nate Solder got them the 3rd round picks.

 

[GleefulGary]

Getting a 4th round pick for HaHa is better than the comp pick we would've gotten for him.

 

[PackerDNA]

Here's what happened. The Patriots outmaneuvered everyone again.

 

[AKCheese]

Exactly

 

[XPack]

Who did they lose to get such high picks?

Kraft.

 

[HardRightEdge]

Here's what happened. The Patriots outmaneuvered everyone again.

Let's look at the Patriots moves that ended up with that 3rd. rounder for Solder with Trent Brown taking his place at LT.

First, Solder signed with the Giants for 4 years / $62 mil. The size of a FA contract is the primary determinant in awarding comp picks. Solder's deal certainly qualifies for a 3rd. rounder.

That left a big hole at the Patriots LT position. So, who did the Pats replace Solder with? In the middle of the 2018 draft the Pats traded their #95 pick for Trent Brown and SF's #143 pick. Brown cost the Pats the equivalent of a 4th. round pick with Brown carrying a $1.9 mil cap number last season. SF considered Brown expendable after drafting McGlinchy.

There's more than "outmaneuvering" going on here. Who should have known Brown better than the 49er's? They figured they needed an upgrade and drafted McGlinchy. The Pats won a Super Bowl with that cast off LT. The 49ers could have kept Brown and used that #9 pick elsewhere.

Now, did Belichick intend to start Brown at LT? No. The starting point was Cannon moving to LT with Isaiah Wynn, their first round pick, taking Cannon's spot at RT. But Wynn blew his Achilles in the second preseason game, ending his season. Plan B was moving Cannon back to RT with Brown starting every game at LT doing what he was signed to do: provide injury insurance or insurance against Wynn not working out at RT or necessity requiring Wynn moving to OG. That's a heck of a Plan B.

Was Belichick just lucky that Brown played as well as he did, not great but pretty good and good enough? Well, first of all, in making that trade, Belichick saw more value in Brown than the guys who should have known him best. That's not "outmaneuvering". That's insight into talent, value and fit, not just Brown's but also Solder's, not just some cagey manuever to get a comp pick. Then there's Belichick's ability to get guys to "do your job" in the way he defines that job. If luck is opportunity meeting preparation, then we could say Belichick is lucky. And nobody is "luckier" than Belichick.

Brown is now a free agent. Will Belichick re-sign him? Maybe not, then the Belichick wheels will get turning once again if Wynn is not ready. Even if Wynn is ready, Belichcik will be looking for that next value Plan B and the wheels keep on turning.

With 6 picks in the first 3 rounds, we'd expect nothing less than Belichick wheeling and dealing in the upcoming draft. Gutekunst should keep him at the top of the speed dial list.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

Here's a link to most likely the best chart available regarding compensatory picks:

https://overthecap.com/compensatory-draft-picks-cancellation-chart/

It was pretty clear the Packers wouldn't be awarded one this time around.

 

[Dantés]

Let's look at the Patriots moves that ended up with that 3rd. rounder for Solder with Trent Brown taking his place at LT.

First, Solder signed with the Giants for 4 years / $62 mil. The size of a FA contract is the primary determinant in awarding comp picks. Solder's deal certainly qualifies for a 3rd. rounder.

That left a big hole at the Patriots LT position. So, who did the Pats replace Solder with? In the middle of the 2018 draft the Pats traded their #95 pick for Trent Brown and SF's #143 pick. Brown cost the Pats the equivalent of a 4th. round pick with Brown carrying a $1.9 mil cap number last season. SF considered Brown expendable after drafting McGlinchy.

There's more than "outmaneuvering" going on here. Who should have known Brown better than the 49er's? They figured they needed an upgrade and drafted McGlinchy. The Pats won a Super Bowl with that cast off LT. The 49ers could have kept Brown and used that #9 pick elsewhere.

Now, did Belichick intend to start Brown at LT? No. The starting point was Cannon moving to LT with Isaiah Wynn, their first round pick, taking Cannon's spot at RT. But Wynn blew his Achilles in the second preseason game, ending his season. Plan B was moving Cannon back to RT with Brown starting every game at LT doing what he was signed to do: provide injury insurance or insurance against Wynn not working out at RT or necessity requiring Wynn moving to OG. That's a heck of a Plan B.

Was Belichick just lucky that Brown played as well as he did, not great but pretty good and good enough? Well, first of all, in making that trade, Belichick saw more value in Brown than the guys who should have known him best. That's not "outmaneuvering". That's insight into talent, value and fit, not just Brown's but also Solder's, not just some cagey manuever to get a comp pick. Then there's Belichick's ability to get guys to "do your job" in the way he defines that job. If luck is opportunity meeting preparation, then we could say Belichick is lucky. And nobody is "luckier" than Belichick.

Brown is now a free agent. Will Belichick re-sign him? Maybe not, then the Belichick wheels will get turning once again if Wynn is not ready. Even if Wynn is ready, Belichcik will be looking for that next value Plan B and the wheels keep on turning.

With 6 picks in the first 3 rounds, we'd expect nothing less than Belichick wheeling and dealing in the upcoming draft. Gutekunst should keep him at the top of the speed dial list.

I agree with a lot of this, but it bears mentioning that the main reason that the Niners traded Brown and drafted McGlinchey was schematic. Shanahan's offense is based on the outside zone, and the outside zone is based on offensive linemen who can move. BB (really, Scarnecchia), got a lot out of Brown, but he still wasn't getting out there on the edge and blocking the OZ.

 

[HardRightEdge]

I agree with a lot of this, but it bears mentioning that the main reason that the Niners traded Brown and drafted McGlinchey was schematic. Shanahan's offense is based on the outside zone, and the outside zone is based on offensive linemen who can move. BB (really, Scarnecchia), got a lot out of Brown, but he still wasn't getting out there on the edge and blocking the OZ.

I can't argue with that. Brown's a big boy and not fleet of foot with the rep of being a better pass blocker than run blocker. But it begs a question. The kind of athleticism required to execute those those plays, be it outside zone or stretch zone, while executing the other things you want from your OTs, requires a certain combination of traits that come at a cost. How good is a scheme if it requires high investment to run it sucessfully?

Belichick's success is largely attributable to his moneyball approach, adapting scheme to the value propositions he is able to identify. You see this especially in the kinds of offenses he's run over the years, morphing from conventional RB-wideout centric offenses, to the primacy of the slot with Welker and others to follow, to a TE-centric approach with Gronkowski/Hernandez, then adding in pass catching RBs. He stopped spending resources on wideouts a long time ago.

The point being, there's a whole lot more going on in New England than clever manuevering.

 

[Dantés]

I can't argue with that. Brown's a big boy and not fleet of foot with the rep of being a better pass blocker than run blocker. But it begs a question. The kind of athleticism required to execute those those plays, be it outside zone or stretch zone, while executing the other things you want from your OTs, requires a certain combination of traits that come at a cost. How good is a scheme if it requires high investment to run it sucessfully?

Belichick's success is largely attributable to his moneyball approach, adapting scheme to the value propositions he is able to identify. You see this especially in the kinds of offenses he's run over the years, morphing from conventional RB-wideout centric offenses, to the primacy of the slot with Welker and others to follow, to a TE-centric approach with Gronkowski/Hernandez, then adding in pass catching RBs. He stopped spending resources on wideouts a long time ago.

The point being, there's a whole lot more going on in New England than clever manuevering.

Investment price is one aspect of a scheme that often goes unconsidered. And BB adds tons of value with his ability to tailor scheme to player. However, in the case of an OT, I think a player who is great at pass pro and run blocking in any scheme is a rarity and will be expensive.

 

[HardRightEdge]

Investment price is one aspect of a scheme that often goes unconsidered. And BB adds tons of value with his ability to tailor scheme to player. However, in the case of an OT, I think a player who is great at pass pro and run blocking in any scheme is a rarity and will be expensive.

Surely. My point is that Belichick evidently no longer saw the value proposition in spending big resources to do the kinds of things that expensive OTs are able to do.

In the Belchick marginal value equation, whatever a Solder might add at $15 million over a Cannon at $6 mil/yr. or a Brown at $2 mil on a one year deal just isn't worth it.

The question I'm raising that nobody seems to ask is, "how do you win a Super Bowl with $8 mil in cap allocated to the two OT positions combined, no flashy big-ticket wideouts and no flashy high-priced edge players? Well, for one thing, he doesn't ask them to do what the Rams or 49ers ask their O-Line to do and saves a ton of money in the process.

Yet the rest of the league, and especially the media, seems to go on their merry way assuming that money or high picks must be plowed into these positions. There's a lot more to this than just Tom Brady.

So, we can now add OT to the list of postions that everybody else seems to think is required that Belichick managed to dispense with. Run/catch RBs are moving up the draft board or getting big money these days, wideouts, edge players...it's been quite awile since Belichick put any big money into these positions. Now he's added LT to the list. It seems the only positions where he consistently expends big resources is in the secondary.

 

[Dantés]

Surely. My point is that Belichick evidently no longer saw the value proposition in spending big resources to do the kinds of things that expensive OTs are able to do. Add OT to the list of postions that everybody else seems to think is required. Run/catch RBs are moving up the draft board or getting big money these days, wideouts, edge players...it's been quite awile since Belichick put any big money into these positions. Now he's added LT to the list. It seems the only positions where he consistently expends big resources are in the secondary.

I don't agree on this one.

He drafted Solder in the 1st round and paid him one significant extension before allowing him to walk. He then promptly spent a 1st round pick on the position.

He drafted Vollmer in the 2nd and paid him an extension. He was able to eventually replace Vollmer with a late round pick, but Cannon only went late because of concerns over his cancer. He signed an extension that, when it was signed, made him a top paid RT.

He seems to invest pretty heavily at OT.

 

[HardRightEdge]

I don't agree on this one.

He drafted Solder in the 1st round and paid him one significant extension before allowing him to walk. He then promptly spent a 1st round pick on the position.

He drafted Vollmer in the 2nd and paid him an extension. He was able to eventually replace Vollmer with a late round pick, but Cannon only went late because of concerns over his cancer. He signed an extension that, when it was signed, made him a top paid RT.

He seems to invest pretty heavily at OT.

My point is over the years Belichick has peeled away one "given" after another. If he got Cannon with a cheap pick because of cancer concerns that's a value proposition calculation. On an average-per-year basis, Cannon's $6.5 mil average annual deal ranks him 11th. among RTs. And if Plan A had worked out without Wynn's injury, he would have been a cheap LT.

 

[Dantés]

My point is over the years Belichick has peeled away one "given" after another. If he got Cannon with a cheap pick because of cancer concerns that's a value proposition calculation. On an average-per-year basis, Cannon's $6.5 mil average annual deal ranks him 11th. among RTs. And if Plan A had worked out without Wynn's injury, he would have been a cheap LT.

I don't disagree that BB is a master of finding market inefficiencies. But we don't see the details the same way in this instance.

Cannon's deal is 11th in large part because of when it was signed. In it's first season, it was 6th.

Wynn is cheap in salary, expensive in draft capital. Solder was also cheap until he wasn't. If Wynn hits, he will become expensive. And history says BB will pay that higher price, at least for one extension.

I don't see much difference between NE and GB in how they've handled the OT position.

 

[AKCheese]

The Patriots get to or win Super Bowls then ACTIVELY strive to get better.... during the Thompson years Green Bay got as far as they got.... more or less decided to “stand pat”.

 

[sschind]

Malcolm Butler and Nate Solder got them the 3rd round picks.

Thanks.


I guess I didn't think they were worth that much. The 4 picks are fine but the 2 third rounders seems a little high to me. I guess the numbers don't lie even though we don't really know what those numbers are.

 

[Favre>Rodgers259]

Brown is now a free agent. Will Belichick re-sign him? Maybe not, then the Belichick wheels will get turning once again if Wynn is not ready. Even if Wynn is ready, Belichcik will be looking for that next value Plan B and the wheels keep on turning.

With 6 picks in the first 3 rounds, we'd expect nothing less than Belichick wheeling and dealing in the upcoming draft. Gutekunst should keep him at the top of the speed dial list.

Gutekunst better be on the **** phone now talking to Brown if he walks, and he needs to have a rental property in Belichick's neighborhood.

 

[HardRightEdge]

Gutekunst better be on the **** phone now talking to Brown if he walks, and he needs to have a rental property in Belichick's neighborhood.

I doubt Gutekunst will be very interested in Brown for the reason Dante stated SF let him go. We've got a head coach and O-Line coach coming from systems with outside zone run blocking. They need guys more athletic than Brown to execute it.

 

[Half Empty]

Thanks.


I guess I didn't think they were worth that much. The 4 picks are fine but the 2 third rounders seems a little high to me. I guess the numbers don't lie even though we don't really know what those numbers are.

Butler = 5 years, $61,250,000

Solder = 4 years, $62,000,000

 

[HardRightEdge]

Butler = 5 years, $61,250,000

Solder = 4 years, $62,000,000

That's the only explanation required.

 

[sschind]

Butler = 5 years, $61,250,000

Solder = 4 years, $62,000,000

I was referring to the formula for determining comp picks and not the actual salaries but again, I did not realize those guys signed deals that big. Didn't realize they didn't either I suppose since I didn't care one way or the other.