Can we declare 2013 a Failed Draft Class?

[Pokerbrat2000]

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[Deleted member 6794]

oh yes, you're ILB's being the reasons we didn't get it done in 2014 despite Peppers, Burnett, Matthews, Dix, all failed on defense, a special teams player couldn't just stand there and block, and Rodgers couldn't score more points despite the defense giving him SIX extra posessions. We won a Superbowl with squat for a TE, and a highly invested in and in the prime of his career safety was had his career snuffed out in the blink of an eye. Should have had him replaced within the hour.

The inside linebackers were already a mess for several seasons before the NFCCG at Seattle. While it's impossible to find a decent replacement for a player like Collins within the hour it shouldn't take a general manager three years to do it either.

Unfortunately it seems we're headed in the same direction not making up for Shields loss in a timely fashion.

 

[Arthur Squires]

Have to say that 2014 was the opposite of 2013. Other than the bonehead Khyri Thornton pick in the 3rd, who I had mocked going 6th round. But we found a solid starting center in the 5th and don't forget the fan idol Jeff Janis in the 7th. But 2013 could have been worse. We had a beast of a RB in Lacy for 2 seasons. Found a top 5 LT and locked him up. Swiss army knife Hyde. Definitely could have been worse!

 

[azrsx05]

One of the premises of the "Draft and Develop" concept that Ted Thompson uses is that you draft guys, develop them and resign them, keeping them on your team for that second contract. Looking back now at the "Class of 2013", even with 11 draft picks that year, something didn't work out well for TT and the Packers.

Packers 2013 draft class

DE Datone Jones (Signed with the Vikings)
RB Eddie Lacy (Signed with the Seahawks)
LT David Bakhtiari
OL JC Tretter (Signed with the Browns)
RB Johnathan Franklin (Forced to retire due to injury)
DB Micah Hyde (Signed with the Bills)
DE Josh Boyd (Released in 2016)
LB Nate Palmer (Released in 2016)
WR Charles Johnson (Signed by the Browns in 2013)
WR Kevin Dorsey (Released in 2015)
LB Sam Barrington (Released in 2016)

How have other draft classes fared and still on the team?

2012 draft class: Perry and Daniels
2011: Randall Cobb, Davon House (returns)
2010: Bulaga and Burnett
2009: Matthews
2008: Nelson
2007: Crosby
2006:
2005: Rodgers

How will 2014-16 draft classes fare? It is starting to feel like the Packers have turned into "Draft and Pray" that the young guys can give a few solid vets the support that they need.

Maybe we can start calling TT's model: "Draft. Develop. Replace"

Now I'm not sure and I'm just asking a serious question. How does this compare to other NFL teams?

 

[Half Empty]

It is disappointing. That's a word I can agree on. But it's understandable, and i certainly wouldn't call it a failure.

yeah interesting, and I don't give 2 ******* ***** what it fills you up with LOL You guys are such dimwits. It doesn't matter for **** what you, I or the other person thinks. It's March. you know what happens in the NFL in March? the set up for a whole lot of buyers remorse by the time December rolls around. Other than that, nothing happens of note, or worth.

you know why nothing is more than interesting right now, because that's all it is, is a bunch of people tossing darts around and the odds are astronomically high that nothing any of us are talking about are going to come to fruition or even follow a similar path to what is being discussed. How many saw the DB's as a weakness last year at this time? How about even when September rolled around? How many saw the struggles Rodgers and the offense would have to start the year? How many foretold and predicted the 2nd half struggles of the offense the year before after starting 6-0 and the Jordan comparisons to start the year before? YOU? HA!

Things happen in an NFL season and none of us know much of anything. So yeah, it's just interesting right now because the rest of my life is filled with the important stuff. I think it's crazy that a signing like Mo Claiborne would have people singing a different tune.

As always, then, nobody is saying you can't stick to the important stuff and come back to the forum when the discussions are more than interesting. If the opportunity to vent is important, that's fine, too.

 

[PackAttack12]

It is disappointing. That's a word I can agree on. But it's understandable, and i certainly wouldn't call it a failure.

yeah interesting, and I don't give 2 ******* ***** what it fills you up with LOL You guys are such dimwits. It doesn't matter for **** what you, I or the other person thinks. It's March. you know what happens in the NFL in March? the set up for a whole lot of buyers remorse by the time December rolls around. Other than that, nothing happens of note, or worth.

you know why nothing is more than interesting right now, because that's all it is, is a bunch of people tossing darts around and the odds are astronomically high that nothing any of us are talking about are going to come to fruition or even follow a similar path to what is being discussed. How many saw the DB's as a weakness last year at this time? How about even when September rolled around? How many saw the struggles Rodgers and the offense would have to start the year? How many foretold and predicted the 2nd half struggles of the offense the year before after starting 6-0 and the Jordan comparisons to start the year before? YOU? HA!

Things happen in an NFL season and none of us know much of anything. So yeah, it's just interesting right now because the rest of my life is filled with the important stuff. I think it's crazy that a signing like Mo Claiborne would have people singing a different tune.

Touch a nerve, did I?

Rodgers is the closest thing to Jordan football has ever seen. That you are correct about. Only difference is that Rodgers can't play both sides of the ball like Jordan.

 

[El Guapo]

Below is my recap of Thompson's drafting priority compared to his two predecessors. The first table shows the average round for each position drafted. For example, we've drafted three Fullbacks (1 in the 5th and 2 in the 6th) so the calculation for is 3 divided by 17 (5+6+6) which equals 5.7 - the average round.

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For positions most drafted, it's just dividing the number of Running Backs drafted (3 Fullbacks plus 6 Halfbacks) by the total number of TT picks which is 107. Therefore 9 divided by 107 equals 8% for RBs.

This is a good tool for seeing the the importance that each GM has placed on different positions. However, there are many variables such as how well prior picks have done and therefore positions of need at each draft. In the Mike Sherman Era, the outlier is his third round draft of BJ Sander. Although Mike's entire stint as GM really is an outlier so it's quite fitting actually.

 

[Curly Calhoun]

One of the premises of the "Draft and Develop" concept that Ted Thompson uses is that you draft guys, develop them and resign them, keeping them on your team for that second contract. Looking back now at the "Class of 2013", even with 11 draft picks that year, something didn't work out well for TT and the Packers.

Packers 2013 draft class

DE Datone Jones (Signed with the Vikings)
RB Eddie Lacy (Signed with the Seahawks)
LT David Bakhtiari
OL JC Tretter (Signed with the Browns)
RB Johnathan Franklin (Forced to retire due to injury)
DB Micah Hyde (Signed with the Bills)
DE Josh Boyd (Released in 2016)
LB Nate Palmer (Released in 2016)
WR Charles Johnson (Signed by the Browns in 2013)
WR Kevin Dorsey (Released in 2015)
LB Sam Barrington (Released in 2016)

How have other draft classes fared and still on the team?

2012 draft class: Perry and Daniels
2011: Randall Cobb, Davon House (returns)
2010: Bulaga and Burnett
2009: Matthews
2008: Nelson
2007: Crosby
2006:
2005: Rodgers

How will 2014-16 draft classes fare? It is starting to feel like the Packers have turned into "Draft and Pray" that the young guys can give a few solid vets the support that they need.

Maybe we can start calling TT's model: "Draft. Develop. Replace"

I'd say no.

In Bakhtiari you have your starting LT for perhaps years to come. Other players from that draft were solid contributors to the Pack and helped keep alive the streak of eight straight years in the playoffs. A failed draft is one that produces no productive players for the team.

 

[Mondio]

Touch a nerve, did I?

Rodgers is the closest thing to Jordan football has ever seen. That you are correct about. Only difference is that Rodgers can't play both sides of the ball like Jordan.

So much so I had forgotten I even wrote the post until I saw it quoted today. Good to see you nailed the take home point LOL

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

I'd say no.

In Bakhtiari you have your starting LT for perhaps years to come. Other players from that draft were solid contributors to the Pack and helped keep alive the streak of eight straight years in the playoffs. A failed draft is one that produces no productive players for the team.

I would say by your standards, very few, if any NFL teams have ever had a failed draft class.

 

[XPack]

Some comparison. I don't think 2013 as a draft class was strong for any team. Everyone failed and I doubt TT could have done any better. Harsh to judge him by this single weak year.

Seahawks

Christine Michael - Played for us (FA)
Jordan Hill - Jaguars
Chris Harper - FA
Jesse Williams - FA
Tharold Simon - Redskins
Luke Willson - SS
Spencer Ware - Chiefs
Ryan Seymour - Cowboys
Ty Powell - Retired

Patriots:

Jamie Collins - Browns
Aaron Dobson - Cardinals
Logan Ryan - Titans
Duron Harmon - Pats
Josh Boyce - Browns
Michael Buchanan - Eskimos
Steve Beauharnais - FA

And these are the Top 20 picks of the 2013 draft class:

Eric Fisher
Luke Joeckel
Dion Jordan
Lane Johnson
Ezekiel Ansah †
Barkevious Mingo
Jonathan Cooper
Tavon Austin
Dee Milliner
Chance Warmack
D. J. Fluker
D. J. Hayden
Sheldon Richardson
Star Lotulelei
Kenny Vaccaro
EJ Manuel
Jarvis Jones
Eric Reid
Justin Pugh
Kyle Long

 

[AmishMafia]

Some comparison. I don't think 2013 as a draft class was strong for any team. Everyone failed and I doubt TT could have done any better. Harsh to judge him by this single weak year.

Seahawks

Christine Michael - Played for us (FA)
Jordan Hill - Jaguars
Chris Harper - FA
Jesse Williams - FA
Tharold Simon - Redskins
Luke Willson - SS
Spencer Ware - Chiefs
Ryan Seymour - Cowboys
Ty Powell - Retired

Patriots:

Jamie Collins - Browns
Aaron Dobson - Cardinals
Logan Ryan - Titans
Duron Harmon - Pats
Josh Boyce - Browns
Michael Buchanan - Eskimos
Steve Beauharnais - FA

And these are the Top 20 picks of the 2013 draft class:

Eric Fisher
Luke Joeckel
Dion Jordan
Lane Johnson
Ezekiel Ansah †
Barkevious Mingo
Jonathan Cooper
Tavon Austin
Dee Milliner
Chance Warmack
D. J. Fluker
D. J. Hayden
Sheldon Richardson
Star Lotulelei
Kenny Vaccaro
EJ Manuel
Jarvis Jones
Eric Reid
Justin Pugh
Kyle Long

That is one craptacular list.

The top 2 OTs have been dissapointments, and Bahk is outplaying them both. I would say that is a big win for our man Ted.

As pointed out, the Packers by at least one metric, had the beat draft of any team. Some consideration to the weakness of the draft talent wise should be taken wjen determining how to rate it.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

Guessing 2011 must have been an equally crappy NFL draft class

1 32 Derek Sherrod T Mississippi State
2 64 Randall Cobb WR Kentucky
3 96 Alex Green RB Hawaii
4 131 Davon House DB New Mexico State
5 141 D.J. Williams TE Arkansas
6 179 Caleb Schlauderaff G Utah
6 186 D.J. Smith LB Appalachian State
6 197 Ricky Elmore LB Arizona
7 218 Ryan Taylor TE North Carolina
7 233 Lawrence Guy DT Arizona State

and again, my original post about the 2013 draft wasn't as much about the "talent" that TT derived from the draft, but more on only being able to keep 1 out of 11 guys past the first contract. Which is basically what happened in 2011. For a draft and develop team, I don't consider that a success.

 

[Mondio]

except I'd say 2011 was a bad draft, Cobb and House. House was injured a lot too in that time he was here. That's it. 2011 was bad. 2013 got production from a number of guys, some from rookie season on, playing valuable roles in a successful team for not a lot of money. Pretty much what is required of a draft class in this day and age. Disappointing we couldn't keep a couple, but I could never call it a failure.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

except I'd say 2011 was a bad draft, Cobb and House. House was injured a lot too in that time he was here. That's it. 2011 was bad. 2013 got production from a number of guys, some from rookie season on, playing valuable roles in a successful team for not a lot of money. Pretty much what is required of a draft class in this day and age. Disappointing we couldn't keep a couple, but I could never call it a failure.

No doubt TT found some talent in 2013 and found a way to use it along the way, with Bahk being the best of it and retained in a smart way, signed way before Free Agency hit. Not so sure he would still be a Packer if that wasn't done. I'm still not convinced that with the way in which TT builds and maintains a team, ending up with 1 out of 11 guys past their rookie contracts is a success, but that's just my opinion. I accept that in this situation, there is grey area between success and failure.

TT also found Lane Taylor, an UDFA in 2013. So credit to TT on that.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

In Bakhtiari you have your starting LT for perhaps years to come. Other players from that draft were solid contributors to the Pack and helped keep alive the streak of eight straight years in the playoffs.

I agree that Thompson drafted some productive players in 2013. It's disappointing the Packers were able to only keep Bakhtiari out of those picks for more than four years though.

Harsh to judge him by this single weak year.

The 2011 and '12 drafts easily qualify as Thompson's worst ones during his tenure with the Packers. The jury is still out on the last two years.

 

[El Guapo]

The 2011 and '12 drafts easily qualify as Thompson's worst ones during his tenure with the Packers. The jury is still out on the last two years.

2005 and 2012 are a toss-up.

 

[Poppa San]

2005 and 2012 are a toss-up.

Not sure if you are trying to be funny or not. 2005? Brady Poppinga followed Nick Collins and A-rod.
2012 Perry, Heyward, Daniels.
2011 Cobb, House, with Guy developing elsewhere.
2010 Bulaga, Burnett (Yes I know Marshall Newhouse and CJ Wilson still play somewhere)
2009 CM3, Raji, TJ Lang
Looks like three per draft are better than JAGs, at least for a while.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

2005 and 2012 are a toss-up.

The Packers drafted Aaron Rodgers in 2005.

 

[Mondio]

and nick collins, and I really would have liked to see what Murphy could have become

 

[Half Empty]

So, the ??? I had weren't just mine, huh?

 

[Poppa San]

Just found this: http://www.espn.com/blog/statsinfo/...revisiting-wild-first-round-of-2013-nfl-draft
Packers aren't the only franchise with buyers remorse.

 

[AmishMafia]

Guessing 2011 must have been an equally crappy NFL draft class

You must really hate wolf as a GM. By your metric he was a complete failure. Not a single.player he drafted is still on the team.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

You must really hate wolf as a GM. By your metric he was a complete failure. Not a single.player he drafted is still on the team.

Not really sure how you are interrupting my "metric", but there is quite a difference between guys still being on the team that were drafted 16 years ago VS 4 years ago. With your interpretation, Vince Lombardi was a complete imbecile.

 

[AmishMafia]

Vince Lombardi was a complete imbecile.

Quoted for reference.