Bold 2020 Predictions - PreDraft & FA

[Pokerbrat2000]

Who cares if Gabriel is at best a #3? That's a weird way to evaluate players. Gabriel is a shifty slot, has very good speed, very shoot short area quickness, can take jet sweeps, etc. He's the type of WR we don't have on our roster. This whole, "oh he's only a #2, or he's only a #4" is just meaningless. Find guys to contribute in the roles you need.

Maybe read what I wrote again. I said "go out and sign him". He definitely should be an upgrade to our WR group, no question. Never said he was a #4, so you are creating your own dialogue there. Hell, if they could sign him relatively cheap, draft another WR high and sign Hooper or Henry at TE, our receiving group is improved drastically from last season.

 

[GleefulGary]

Maybe read what I wrote again. I said "go out and sign him". He definitely should be an upgrade to our WR group, no question. Never said he was a #4, so you are creating your own dialogue there. Hell, if they could sign him relatively cheap, draft another WR high and sign Hooper or Henry at TE, our receiving group is improved drastically from last season.

The "oh he's a #2, or a #4" bit was an obvious commentary from me on my dislike of labeling guys as a #1, #2, so on and so forth.

I think it's pedantic, unproductive, and overall means very little.

Instead of saying, "oh he's nothing more than a #3", talk about what he does, what he doesn't do. I mean hell, what does "he's a #3" even mean? He's the 3rd option? Because that depends on the play. He's your #3 WR? Well, what does that mean? Some people say that means it has to be a slot, but obviously, that's silly. Some people say it means it's your 3rd best WR. Makes a little more sense, but still, subjective. The 3rd best WR on one team might be the best on another.

I just think we can do a lot better. Ya know, be descriptive.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

I just think we can do a lot better. Ya know, be descriptive.

OK. He doesn't even come close to deserving #1 WR on a team money. On the Packers roster he is probably their 2nd or 3rd best WR. On other rosters, probably not. I was simply classifying where he would be from a value stand point for the Packers. For all I know, Gute and the Packers might think he wouldn't even make the roster. For all I know, Gabriel and his agent might think he is worth #2 WR money.

In a league where guys are paid based on stats and where they contribute (past and perceived future) , especially at a position like WR, where you have 1-4 guys that can see the field every game, you really have to place his value in line of what he is going to give your specific team.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

Looking at the market, I don't think finding a FA ILB is realistic. Cory Littleton is the best guy on the market and behind him is very meh. Given the choice between bringing Littleton in and keeping Bulaga, I want to keep Bulaga. Same goes with Nick Kwiatkowski, I'd prefer Bulaga over him. If they get Danny Trevathan at a good deal because he wants revenge on the Bears, I'm all on. However there may be bad blood due to his cheap shot on Davante.

Not saying it won't happen but that'd be very disappointing. You know his cap hit?

The Packers signing Kwiatkowski most likely wouldn't prevent them from bringing back Bulaga. Turner is set to count $8.1 million against the Packers cap in 2020, releasing him would result in only $1.35 million of savings.

 

[LambeauLombardi]

The Packers signing Kwiatkowski most likely wouldn't prevent them from bringing back Bulaga. Turner is set to count $8.1 million against the Packers cap in 2020, releasing him would result in only $1.35 million of savings.

Damn, I didn't know his guaranteed money was that small. Still would be a waste cutting him but not terrible.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

Damn, I didn't know his guaranteed money was that small. Still would be a waste cutting him but not terrible.

I fully expect the Packers to hold on to Turner as releasing him wouldn't result in significant cap savings and open up a dire need at right guard.

 

[HardRightEdge]

I fully expect the Packers to hold on to Turner as releasing him wouldn't result in significant cap savings and open up a dire need at right guard.

Yeah, that ain't happening.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

We see this talk every year about 1 or more Packer players. "He isn't worth what he is getting paid, cut him". The problem is, often times due to the dead cap, cutting said player doesn't free up enough cap space to put towards his replacement of equal or better talent.

If the Packers or any team for that matter had unlimited money and there was no cap space, we would see this constant purging of players that are under performing their contracts each year. Personally, I am thankful for the Cap, without it, I fear the Packers could not compete consistently on the same level as most teams in the NFL.

 

[Jason Edens]

Here is a bold prediction that has recently had some press believing it will be true. Jimmy Graham is back in a Green Bay Packers uniform in 2020.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

Here is a bold prediction that has recently had some press believing it will be true. Jimmy Graham is back in a Green Bay Packers uniform in 2020.

I seriously doubt that happens. He just isn't worth the $8M you save by cutting him. Only way I see him back in Green Bay next season is if agrees to a substantial pay cut. We should have our answers by 3/15. If he isn't cut before then he will get the $500K roster, while not a big amount in the NFL, not worth paying it, if you have no intentions of keeping the guy.

 

[Jason Edens]

I seriously doubt that happens. He just isn't worth the $8M you save by cutting him. Only way I see him back in Green Bay next season is if agrees to a substantial pay cut. We should have our answers by 3/15. If he isn't cut before then he will get the $500K roster, while not a big amount in the NFL, not worth paying it, if you have no intentions of keeping the guy.

I don't think he is worth it either, but I am wondering why he hasn't been cut yet. I think they may be trying to negotiate a pay cut for him, hence the prediction. He isn't getting $8 million anywhere at this stage of his career. They may want to keep him on board for another year and continue to develop the younger talent though.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

I don't think he is worth it either, but I am wondering why he hasn't been cut yet. I think they may be trying to negotiate a pay cut for him, hence the prediction. He isn't getting $8 million anywhere at this stage of his career. They may want to keep him on board for another year and continue to develop the younger talent though.

I think if they strike out in Free Agency at TE, Jimmy G might be their best option, at a reduced salary of course. I'm not saying Jimmy should stay, but he isn't the worst TE in the NFL, just not worth what he is currently contracted to make.

 

[Mondio]

I am not in favor of pushing any more money out for Jimmy Graham, which is what they'd be doing by restructuring anything unless they cut and re-sign for a much smaller salary. But we're going to be tighter on the cap in a year from now with some much more important positions we'll need money for.

 

[Firethorn1001]

I don't think he is worth it either, but I am wondering why he hasn't been cut yet.

No financial need to at this point.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

I don't think he is worth it either, but I am wondering why he hasn't been cut yet.

No financial need to at this point.

That all changes when his Workout ($250K) bonus kicks in. This year, unlike last year, his roster bonus of $300K, is a per game bonus ($18,750/game). Last season he earned a $5M roster bonus on 3/15/19.

unless they cut and re-sign for a much smaller salary.

Ummmm...yes, that is what I was implying. No way would you want to incorporate his final year of $10M into a "restructure", it would be a complete "tear up and redo" IMO.

Final year of Grahams contract if Packers don't cut him:

Cap Hit:$11,666,668

Per game Total Roster Bonus: $300K

Workout Bonus: $250K

Dead Cap hit: $3,666,668

Savings if Cut: $8,000,000

I could be wrong, but I doubt they carry him much longer, since that $8M cap savings will probably be needed to sign a FA or two.

 

[Jason Edens]

That all changes when his Workout ($250K) bonus kicks in. This year, unlike last year, his roster bonus of $300K, is a per game bonus ($18,750/game). Last season he earned a $5M roster bonus on 3/15/19.



Ummmm...yes, that is what I was implying. No way would you want to incorporate his final year of $10M into a "restructure", it would be a complete "tear up and redo" IMO.

Final year of Grahams contract if Packers don't cut him:

Cap Hit:$11,666,668

Per game Total Roster Bonus: $300K

Workout Bonus: $250K

Dead Cap hit: $3,666,668

Savings if Cut: $8,000,000

I could be wrong, but I doubt they carry him much longer, since that $8M cap savings will probably be needed to sign a FA or two.

It is crazy that we signed him to that much money in the first place. He is worth maybe $4 million (and I think that is on the high end for him) at this point in his career. The dead cap hit is almost what he is worth market value.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

It is crazy that we signed him to that much money in the first place. He is worth maybe $4 million (and I think that is on the high end for him) at this point in his career. The dead cap hit is almost what he is worth market value.

Yes, it seems like it now, 2 years later, but at the time, it was what it cost to sign what appeared to be the best FA TE available, something most really felt the Packers needed (a top TE). If I remember correctly, the Packers outbid the Saints and maybe another team that wanted him.

Definitely the risk you run with high priced Free Agents, it was also Gute's first big dip into the Free Agency pool. I remember last year, some questioned his signing of the Smith Brothers, thinking he paid too much. So far, those looks like brilliant signings, but still a few more years before you can put them in the books as such.

 

[Jason Edens]

Yes, it seems like it now, 2 years later, but at the time, it was what it cost to sign what appeared to be the best FA TE available, something most really felt the Packers needed (a top TE). If I remember correctly, the Packers outbid the Saints and maybe another team that wanted him.

Definitely the risk you run with high priced Free Agents, it was also Gute's first big dip into the Free Agency pool. I remember last year, some questioned his signing of the Smith Brothers, thinking he paid too much. So far, those looks like brilliant signings, but still a few more years before you can put them in the books as such.

Gute looked dumb for balking at resigning Cook for what he was asking and in my opinion he over reached for Graham to make up for it. He did well getting the Smiths though. They are expensive, but the end position typically is. Graham isn't horrible, but he is a shadow of what he used to be, and honestly he was a shadow of he used to be when he was in Seattle. I believe the idea was that Rodgers will make anyone a superstar, and that clearly is not the case anymore.

 

[Firethorn1001]

Gute looked dumb for balking at resigning Cook for what he was asking

That was Ted which in turn got us Bennett. Gute tried to repair that damage with Graham and didn't work out.

 

[Jason Edens]

That was Ted which in turn got us Bennett. Gute tried to repair that damage with Graham and didn't work out.

You are exactly right. That was something I wanted to forget lol.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

That all changes when his Workout ($250K) bonus kicks in. This year, unlike last year, his roster bonus of $300K, is a per game bonus ($18,750/game). Last season he earned a $5M roster bonus on 3/15/19.

I could be wrong, but I doubt they carry him much longer, since that $8M cap savings will probably be needed to sign a FA or two.

The Packers could release Graham immediately as a corresponding move to signing a free agent. Otherwise there's no need to make a move before the start of OTAs when his workout bonus comes into play.

 

[tynimiller]

The Packers could release Graham immediately as a corresponding move to signing a free agent. Otherwise there's no need to make a move before the start of OTAs when his workout bonus comes into play.

I agree, however I just think if Gute and Co. already have the intent to cut, just do it. I am never a fan of teams not giving a guy solid time to get in on Free Agency

 

[Deleted member 6794]

I agree, however I just think if Gute and Co. already have the intent to cut, just do it. I am never a fan of teams not giving a guy solid time to get in on Free Agency

I think teams actually releasing a player to give him a head start in free agency is a whole lot of BS. Most of the time they have other reasons to make a move like that.

 

[tynimiller]

I think teams actually releasing a player to give him a head start in free agency is a whole lot of BS. Most of the time they have other reasons to make a move like that.

Nope. Let Graham go now if it is the plan. ZERO reason to draw it out.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

Nope. Let Graham go now if it is the plan. ZERO reason to draw it out.

The Packers don't benefit by releasing Graham at this point. Therefore I don't care when they actually make the move.