Bold 2020 Predictions - PreDraft & FA

[OldSchool101]

I was Elvis at the game.


I was so drunk I think I told the whole section that several times. But I still thank you.

Funny. That was Post-Draft beers. I think this thread title is “Pre Draft” beers.

 

[Packer Fan in SD]

Funny. That was Post-Draft beers. I think this thread title is “Pre Draft” beers.

Still under the influence from that game. But I am now Roy Orbison.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

Still under the influence from that game. But I am now Roy Orbison.

I always felt Roy was a Pretty Woman named Sue.

 

[Sky King]

If you believe some people, they would want you to think it was probably Elvis who performed at the Packers last Super Bowl halftime show.

Johnny Carson was right. It would be a better world if Elvis were alive and all the impersonators were dead.

 

[Jason Edens]

Charts/mocks do not reflect reality. I'm willing to be proven wrong if you can show me previous year charts/mocks that were more than even 25% accurate.

A first round pick at number 30 is barely worth more than the number 1 pick in the 2nd, and the same thing goes for the 30th pick in round 2, 3, etc. No one is trading the 10th pick over all for the equivalent of a #30 and #62, there are too many other teams that have more draft capital to make that trade with. Outside of us doing a horrible Ricky Williamsesque trade, we are going to be up late to see who the Packers draft. I think it is more likely that we trade down than trade up in this draft.

 

[LambeauLombardi]

-Linsley or Bulaga will not be wearing a G on their helmet in 2020.
-MVS will out perform Lazard in yards and TDs in 2020....but be barely beat by him in reception count.
-Sternberger will have be a 40 receptions, 400 yards , 4 TD tight end for us.

Only thing I disagree with is MVS out doing Lazard. Unless Lazard gets injured, he is a much better player than MVS. Only thing MVS can do better is run.

1.A big FA ILB signing

Looking at the market, I don't think finding a FA ILB is realistic. Cory Littleton is the best guy on the market and behind him is very meh. Given the choice between bringing Littleton in and keeping Bulaga, I want to keep Bulaga. Same goes with Nick Kwiatkowski, I'd prefer Bulaga over him. If they get Danny Trevathan at a good deal because he wants revenge on the Bears, I'm all on. However there may be bad blood due to his cheap shot on Davante.

Billy Turner traded.

Not saying it won't happen but that'd be very disappointing. You know his cap hit?

A first round pick at number 30 is barely worth more than the number 1 pick in the 2nd, and the same thing goes for the 30th pick in round 2, 3, etc. No one is trading the 10th pick over all for the equivalent of a #30 and #62, there are too many other teams that have more draft capital to make that trade with. Outside of us doing a horrible Ricky Williamsesque trade, we are going to be up late to see who the Packers draft. I think it is more likely that we trade down than trade up in this draft.

Yeah the only thing I can compare to this type of deal is the Falcons trading for Julio Jones draft day, and I think they got very lucky it worked considering the Browns screwed up all the draft picks they traded for (shocker)

 

[Heyjoe4]

Charts/mocks do not reflect reality. I'm willing to be proven wrong if you can show me previous year charts/mocks that were more than even 25% accurate.

I don’t want to even think about what it would take to move from #30 to the top ten. And for what? Simmons is the best ILB in the draft and he may go top 5. Queen may be available at #30 and if not, there will be a WR who can hopefully start, and we keep the rest of our picks.

GB had a chance to draft high (top 15) last year and, just my opinion, blew it.

 

[Heyjoe4]

I'm going to do one of these threads for post Draft and beginning of FA...but let's hear what your crystal balls are saying....


I'll go on a limb and make 3 bold predictions:

-Linsley or Bulaga will not be wearing a G on their helmet in 2020.
-MVS will out perform Lazard in yards and TDs in 2020....but be barely beat by him in reception count.
-Sternberger will have be a 40 receptions, 400 yards , 4 TD tight end for us.

I think Linsley stays and Bulaga goes (someone will give him a 3 year contract). I don’t see MVS passing Lazard. In fact I’d be surprised if MVS plays in the NFL (thinking J’mon Moore). As for Sternberger, I think your numbers might be a little conservative. I expect him to have a breakout season with Graham gone.

Thanks for starting the thread!

 

[Heyjoe4]

Maybe, but I saw Elvis at the game.

Elvis has been to a number of Packer games. He’s a huge fan.

 

[rmontro]

Elvis has been to a number of Packer games. He’s a huge fan.

You'd think he would be a fan of the Tennessee Titans.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

Elvis has been to a number of Packer games. He’s a huge fan.

True story. I was there when he left the building!

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[gopkrs]

You'd think he would be a fan of the Tennessee Titans.

Green Bay is Titletown U.S.A. Elvis wants a piece of that.

 

[tynimiller]

I think Linsley stays and Bulaga goes (someone will give him a 3 year contract). I don’t see MVS passing Lazard. In fact I’d be surprised if MVS plays in the NFL (thinking J’mon Moore). As for Sternberger, I think your numbers might be a little conservative. I expect him to have a breakout season with Graham gone.

Thanks for starting the thread!

For sure. The MVS stat is my boldest prediction for sure, and honestly a long shot...especially depending what walks into that WR room from draft and/or FA

 

[Heyjoe4]

You'd think he would be a fan of the Tennessee Titans.

Well, he is, but everyone loves the Packers. Elvis goes to a lot more Titan games, or so I’ve heard.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

Once the Raiders start playing in Vegas, we know where Elvis will be!

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[HardRightEdge]

The draft trade chart is pretty accurate. I don't care about putting any effort into proving you wrong though as that will happen on draft day.

Yes, depite outliers here and there, the Jimmy Johnson trade value chart remains a pretty reliable predictor of how the league values picks. Future picks tend to be devalued somewhat for the opportunity cost and uncertainty of their eventual value.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

Yes, depite outliers here and there, the Jimmy Johnson trade value chart remains a pretty reliable predictor of how the league values picks. Future picks tend to be devalued somewhat for the opportunity cost and uncertainty of their eventual value.

I have always thought that 7th round picks were under valued on the chart. I get it, not a lot of 7th rounders end up making an impact, but some do, as well as UDFA's can make an impact. What a 7th rounder does give you is an automatic hold on guys that are otherwise high priority UDFA signings that 31 other teams are competing with you for.

So if some team offered me Nineteen 7th rounders (value of 1 pt. each) for my top of the 6th Rounder, I am in!

 

[HardRightEdge]

I have always thought that 7th round picks were under valued on the chart. I get it, not a lot of 7th rounders end up making an impact, but some do, as well as UDFA's can make an impact. What a 7th rounder does give you is an automatic hold on guys that are otherwise high priority UDFA signings that 31 other teams are competing with you for.

So if some team offered me Nineteen 7th rounders (value of 1 pt. each) for my top of the 6th Rounder, I am in!

In the Jimmy Johnson chart, top of the 6th. round is 27 points. 7th. round pick values range from 14 at the top to 2 at the bottom.

It occurs to me that the Jimmy Johnson chart predates comp picks. All picks below the comp picks need to be rolled down in value. For example, the 4th. of the 3rd. round comp picks is not a 3rd. round pick. It is the 100th. pick in the draft and should be valued as such.

I put next to no value on a 7th. round pick as the chart indicates. The ability to draft a guy with that pick who might otherwise end up with somebody else as a UDFA is a concern pretty much confined to kickers, punters and long snappers many or most of whom come out of the undrafted ranks.

Who are these guys you missed out on for lack of one more 7th. round pick? Anybody can google names of stars who came out of the UDFA ranks. Tony Romo, James Harrison, or even Tramon Williams down the food chain, yada, yada. But when you consider how many flow through 90 man training camp rosters and then into practice squads and then out of the league vs. how many actually amount to anything, you're talking about losing out on a needle in the proverbial haystack.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

In the Jimmy Johnson chart, top of the 6th. round is 27 points. 7th. round pick values range from 14 at the top to 2 at the bottom.

It occurs to me that the Jimmy Johnson chart predates comp picks. All picks below the comp picks need to be rolled down in value. For example, the 4th. of the 3rd. round comp picks is not a 3rd. round pick. It is the 100th. pick in the draft and should be valued as such.

I put next to no value on a 7th. round pick as the chart indicates. The ability to draft a guy with that pick who might otherwise end up with somebody else as a UDFA is a concern pretty much confined to kickers, punters and long snappers many or most of whom come out of the undrafted ranks.

Who are these guys you missed out on for lack of one more 7th. round pick? Anybody can google names of stars who came out of the UDFA ranks. Tony Romo, James Harrison, or even Tramon Williams down the food chain, yada, yada. But when you consider how many flow through 90 man training camp rosters and then into practice squads and then out of the league vs. how many actually amount to anything, you're talking about losing out on a needle in the proverbial haystack.

I was using a similar chart but not the same one you were using. This one looks at comp pics too I believe, obviously, right now those are projected picks.

https://www.drafttek.com/NFL-Trade-Value-Chart.asp?RequestTeam=GB

Most differ with me on the value of picks in the 7th round. You are right, there aren't a lot that have made it, but how many 7th rounders are successful each year? I view 7th round picks as moving to the head of the line on signing an otherwise probably UDFA. So I guess I place a lot more value on being able to lock a guy up with a 7th round pick VS having to compete with other teams, teams which that player might prefer to sign with as an UDFA. While Kickers and Punters are a big part of it, I feel that way about any position or player. These are a few players who the Packers originally signed as UDFA's. There have been other successful UDFA's for the Packers, but they were originally signed by other teams.

• Willie Wood
• Evan Dietrich-Smith
• Johnnie Gray
• Paul Coffman
  
• Ed West
• Mark Murphy
• Cullen Jenkins
• Sam Shields
• Taysom Hill

Pretty decent article on the "Draft Value Trade Chart", how it started and has evolved but not changed a lot.

https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.c...lichick-every-team-uses-the-same-draft-chart/

 

[HardRightEdge]

I was using a similar chart but not the same one you were using. This one looks at comp pics too I believe, obviously, right now those are projected picks.

https://www.drafttek.com/NFL-Trade-Value-Chart.asp?RequestTeam=GB

Most differ with me on the value of picks in the 7th round. You are right, there aren't a lot that have made it, but how many 7th rounders are successful each year? I view 7th round picks as moving to the head of the line on signing an otherwise probably UDFA. So I guess I place a lot more value on being able to lock a guy up with a 7th round pick VS having to compete with other teams, teams which that player might prefer to sign with as an UDFA. While Kickers and Punters are a big part of it, I feel that way about any position or player. These are a few players who the Packers originally signed as UDFA's. There have been other successful UDFA's for the Packers, but they were originally signed by other teams.

• Willie Wood
• Evan Dietrich-Smith
• Johnnie Gray
• Paul Coffman
  
• Ed West
• Mark Murphy
• Cullen Jenkins
• Sam Shields
• Taysom Hill

Pretty decent article on the "Draft Value Trade Chart", how it started and has evolved but not changed a lot.

https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.c...lichick-every-team-uses-the-same-draft-chart/

The fact you have to go back 20, 40, 60 years for some of those names goes to my point--needles in haystacks.

 

[HardRightEdge]

Pretty decent article on the "Draft Value Trade Chart", how it started and has evolved but not changed a lot.

https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.c...lichick-every-team-uses-the-same-draft-chart/

That's a funny article. The writer says the Johnson chart is obsolete. Belichick says everybody is working off the same chart within a roughjly 5-10% variance. Evidence indicates that's the Johnson chart or something very close to it.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

The fact you have to go back 20, 40, 60 years for some of those names goes to my point--needles in haystacks.

How far back do you have to go for 6th round picks for success stories? I have to go back to 1996 and Marco Rivera in the 6th round for the Packers to find much success there. Are the odds of one 6th rounder equal to or better than the odds of 1 of 19 7th rounders working out? I doubt it, the Packers seem to have landed just as many decent players in the 7th round as the 6th.

Like I said, UDFA and 7th rounders are shots in the dark, but that is why you sign so many UDFA's and tryout guys after the draft. I am sure each team has their list of high priority UDFA signings. If you have 12 picks in the 7th, chances are you probably are going to take your top 12 on that list and not have to settle for #5, 19, 36, 41....etc because your preferred guys got better offers from other teams.

When someone asks another team to "toss in a 7th round pick", I doubt its because adding a "value of 1" from the trade chart evens things out, its the value of drafting the rights to another player that appeals to the receiving team.

 

[GleefulGary]

Let's go sign Taylor Gabriel.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

Let's go sign Taylor Gabriel.

Saw that the Bears released him and Prince A and saved themselves about $12.5M in the process.

Go sign em both, at the right price. Gabriel at best is a #3, but considering what the Packers currently have, he would probably be your best option in the slot.

Prince is probably going to want more than he is worth.

 

[GleefulGary]

Saw that the Bears released him and Prince A and saved themselves about $12.5M in the process.

Go sign em both, at the right price. Gabriel at best is a #3, but considering what the Packers currently have, he would probably be your best option in the slot.

Prince is probably going to want more than he is worth.

Who cares if Gabriel is at best a #3? That's a weird way to evaluate players. Gabriel is a shifty slot, has very good speed, very shoot short area quickness, can take jet sweeps, etc. He's the type of WR we don't have on our roster. This whole, "oh he's only a #2, or he's only a #4" is just meaningless. Find guys to contribute in the roles you need.