As bad as the defense was tonight...

[Deleted member 6794]

Indeed, but I'll bet that percentage is considerably less when the opposing team puts the ball in the end zone on that first drive. That's my thing. None of this is an exact science, but even without looking at the numbers, relying on your memory in so many opening drives the past few years, the team almost looks dead in the water if the opposing team scores on the first drive of the game. Constantly playing catch up.

I'm hoping the defense improves to the point that this will be a non issue moving forward though.

Of course the Packers would hugely benefit from not allowing an opening drive touchdown after deferring but since 2008 they have won 12 out of 22 regular season games when surrendering a TD on the opponent's first drive after kicking the ball away to open the game.

 

[PackAttack12]

Of course the Packers would hugely benefit from not allowing an opening drive touchdown after deferring but since 2008 they have won 12 out of 22 regular season games when surrendering a TD on the opponent's first drive after kicking the ball away to open the game.

Thanks for all of the information. Puts all of this into context.

I think we can all agree though that, regardless, we need a defense that doesn't surrender very many opening drive touchdowns. That makes the opposing team receiving the opening kickoff irrelevant.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

I think we can all agree though that, regardless, we need a defense that doesn't surrender very many opening drive touchdowns. That makes the opposing team receiving the opening kickoff irrelevant.

There's absolutely no doubt the defense has to play better over the course of this season for the Packers to be successful, no matter if we're talking about the opening drive or the rest of the game.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

Because if you get the kickoff to start the second half after the opposing team scored, you were going to get that kickoff anyway as there’s a change of possession after every score. It’s smarter to take the guaranteed extra possession to start the game because there are factors you can’t control during the game that would make it so you don’t get the extra possession, such as the opposing team scoring before the half.

Whether you receive the opening kickoff or the 2nd half kickoff, each team is guaranteed one of those possessions, they are not "bonus" possessions. It doesn't matter if you score or the other teams scores to end the the first half, the team getting the second half kickoff has already been determined. It may "feel" like you are doubling up if you are the team that scores to end the half AND then receives the 2nd half kickoff, but the same could be said if you score to end the half, don't have to kickoff because there is no time left on the clock and then kickoff to start the second half. By the "doubling up logic", you have just avoided one kickoff and thus one possession by the other team.

As I've posted before the Packers have a good winning percentage (31-15, .674) when deferring after winning the coin toss since 2008 as well though.

What is their winning percentage when they receive the first half kickoff and/or don't defer? Isn't .674 pretty close to their winning percentage since 2008 in all games?

 

[Mondio]

so what we're getting at is, it doesn't make any difference does it? move the ball when you have it, score points. Stop the other guy. doesn't matter if you get the ball from a kick off, turnover or a coinflip.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

so what we're getting at is, it doesn't make any difference does it? move the ball when you have it, score points. Stop the other guy. doesn't matter if you get the ball from a kick off, turnover or a coinflip.

Pretty much, unless you want to toss in "Psychological or momentum" advantages. But both are intangibles and rely on the brain. LOL

I also forgot "weather/wind". If I am a coach and I see that the weather/winds are predicted to take a big turn in either direction at some point in the game, I might factor that in my decision if I won the coin toss.

 

[Jerellh528]

Whether you receive the opening kickoff or the 2nd half kickoff, each team is guaranteed one of those possessions, they are not "bonus" possessions. It doesn't matter if you score or the other teams scores to end the the first half, the team getting the second half kickoff has already been determined. It may "feel" like you are doubling up if you are the team that scores to end the half AND then receives the 2nd half kickoff, but the same could be said if you score to end the half, don't have to kickoff because there is no time left on the clock and then kickoff to start the second half. By the "doubling up logic", you have just avoided one kickoff and thus one possession by the other team.

It absolutely does matter if either of the teams scored right before the half. I don’t know how else to put it, thought I laid it out pretty straight forward.
Yes in theory, both teams get a kickoff to begin a half, but what goes on in the first half definitely does matter in who benefits from that second half kickoff whereas the team who elects to receive doesn’t have to worry about it, they just get the opening possession automatically. The team who defers has to try to make sure either they score before the half or nobody scores, if the opposing team scores right before the half then the second half kickoff possession was a waste because they woulda got that kickoff anyway.

 

[PackAttack12]

so what we're getting at is, it doesn't make any difference does it? move the ball when you have it, score points. Stop the other guy. doesn't matter if you get the ball from a kick off, turnover or a coinflip.

To me, the Packers record of 21-4 when scoring on the first possession of the game since 2006 is reason enough to want the football and try to take it down to score.

Like I mentioned earlier, toss out the records and the statistics and just think back to recent history. When the Packers are behind right off the bat, it's an uphill battle for the entire game.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

The team who defers has to try to make sure either they score before the half or nobody scores, if the opposing team scores right before the half then the second half kickoff possession was a waste because they woulda got that kickoff anyway.

You are discounting or totally forgetting about the "free possession" one team is getting to start the game.

Stop and think about it. The decision has already been made who receives the second half kick off right? Besides the psychological aspect of "oh cool, we scored and get the ball again to start the second half", there isn't a "functional" advantage of either getting that "free possession to start the game or the free one to start the second half.

If I am kicking off to start the second half and my team scores to end the first half, I am saying "bonus! They didn't get a "free possession out of it", since we would have had to kick off after the TD anyway, but we got the "free possession" to start the game."

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

To me, the Packers record of 21-4 when scoring on the first possession of the game since 2006 is reason enough to want the football and try to take it down to score.

Like I mentioned earlier, toss out the records and the statistics and just think back to recent history. When the Packers are behind right off the bat, it's an uphill battle for the entire game.

That has been my thoughts as well and I think it is because our offense is typically much better than our defense, so why not open with your strength and try to establish momentum and that psychological advantage of being ahead right out of the gate. Obviously, that can backfire when you are playing on the road and a noisy pumped up start of the game crowd helps to stymie the offense.

 

[Mondio]

To me, the Packers record of 21-4 when scoring on the first possession of the game since 2006 is reason enough to want the football and try to take it down to score.

Like I mentioned earlier, toss out the records and the statistics and just think back to recent history. When the Packers are behind right off the bat, it's an uphill battle for the entire game.

Lately it seems the only time the offense shows up is after they’ve dug a sufficient hole to climb out of.

I wonder what points scored in 2nd half compared to first is? Or record with deferring compared to getting ball first?

I don’t really care either way. I’d always take the ball 2nd as I think in game adjustments are easier than week prior guesses on how to attack a defense. But there’s a way to make either look better than the other.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

Lately it seems the only time the offense shows up is after they’ve dug a sufficient hole to climb out of.

I wonder what points scored in 2nd half compared to first is? Or record with deferring compared to getting ball first?

I don’t really care either way. I’d always take the ball 2nd as I think in game adjustments are easier than week prior guesses on how to attack a defense. But there’s a way to make either look better than the other.

Very good points. If the stats I saw on ESPN are correct, as well as my math, the Packers have scored 8 TD's in the 2nd half and 6 in the first half. 0 rushing TD's in the second half

But I agree with you, making adjustments, for the offense (and the defense), should be "easier" to do at halftime, since you know more about what your opponent is doing on that given day.

 

[Mondio]

Very good points. If the stats I saw on ESPN are correct, as well as my math, the Packers have scored 8 TD's in the 2nd half and 6 in the first half. 0 rushing TD's in the second half

But I agree with you, making adjustments, for the offense (and the defense), should be "easier" to do at halftime, since you know more about what your opponent is doing on that given day.

See, agreeing with me is easier than you think

 

[gbgary]

As I've pointed out several times the Packers win a higher percentage of games in which they defer after winning the coin toss than other ones.

as. i. said. before..."since the d went bad."

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

See, agreeing with me is easier than you think

Au contraire Grasshopper...it goes both ways! LOL

Actually, its what I like about most of you guys/gals, no way are we ever going to agree on everything and what fun would that be anyway? But for the most part, we have good healthy debates about things we don't agree on and hopefully, we are each a bit wiser for it.

 

[Jerellh528]

You are discounting or totally forgetting about the "free possession" one team is getting to start the game.

Stop and think about it. The decision has already been made who receives the second half kick off right? Besides the psychological aspect of "oh cool, we scored and get the ball again to start the second half", there isn't a "functional" advantage of either getting that "free possession to start the game or the free one to start the second half.

If I am kicking off to start the second half and my team scores to end the first half, I am saying "bonus! They didn't get a "free possession out of it", since we would have had to kick off after the TD anyway, but we got the "free possession" to start the game."

Yes, which is exactly why it behooves a team to receive the opening kickoff rather than defer which is what I’ve been trying to say.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

What is their winning percentage when they receive the first half kickoff and/or don't defer? Isn't .674 pretty close to their winning percentage since 2008 in all games?

The Packers have received the first half kickoff in 96 games during McCarthy's tenure as the head coach compiling a record of 60-34-2 (.635) in those games.

In the meantine the Packers have won the coin toss a total of 97 times (most in the league) since the start of the 2008 season. They have deferred in a total of 49 games, winning 33 of them (.673). Interestingly when they have decided to receive the ball in the first half their winning percentage significantly drops to .594 (28-19-1). Overall the team has won 62.7% of their games over the past 10+ seasons.

To me, the Packers record of 21-4 when scoring on the first possession of the game since 2006 is reason enough to want the football and try to take it down to score.

Once again, the Packers have only scored a touchdown on 25.8% of the games in which they received the ball first though.

I wonder what points scored in 2nd half compared to first is?

This season the Packers rank 20th in the league in points scored in the first half (63, 10.5 per game) while being eighth in that category in the second half (85, 14.2).

Since 2008 the team ranks third in first half points (2,247, 13.5) while being fourth in the second half (2,167, 13.1).

See, agreeing with me is easier than you think

Hmmm, sometimes you make it really difficult though

as. i. said. before..."since the d went bad."

I have absolutely no idea what point you're trying to make.

 

[Mondio]

Hmmm, sometimes you make it really difficult though


.

Be thankful you're not my wife and have to live with me

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

The Packers have received the first half kickoff in 96 games during McCarthy's tenure as the head coach compiling a record of 60-34-2 (.635) in those games.

In the meantine the Packers have won the coin toss a total of 97 times (most in the league) since the start of the 2008 season. They have deferred in a total of 49 games, winning 33 of them (.673). Interestingly when they have decided to receive the ball in the first half their winning percentage significantly drops to .594 (28-19-1). Overall the team has won 62.7% of their games over the past 10+ seasons.

Good stats, I knew we could count on you for them.

I'm not so sure I would conclude that the Packers have done significantly better when they defer. 5 wins over 10+ years isn't a big number, but more importantly, there are other factors that probably go into it. Were the Packers on the road? Who were they playing? Etc.

 

[PackAttack12]

The Packers have received the first half kickoff in 96 games during McCarthy's tenure as the head coach compiling a record of 60-34-2 (.635) in those games.

In the meantine the Packers have won the coin toss a total of 97 times (most in the league) since the start of the 2008 season. They have deferred in a total of 49 games, winning 33 of them (.673). Interestingly when they have decided to receive the ball in the first half their winning percentage significantly drops to .594 (28-19-1). Overall the team has won 62.7% of their games over the past 10+ seasons.

The 63.5 v.s. 59.4 isn't enough of a difference for me to not want the football to take advantage of that 21-4 number. Just my opinion, though.

 

[swhitset]

The 63.5 v.s. 59.4 isn't enough of a difference for me to not want the football to take advantage of that 21-4 number. Just my opinion, though.

I suspect that 21-4 number has very little to do with the opening kickoff. While not always true, I would guess that if you are able to march down the field on your opening possession, regardless of when that is, and score a touchdown, the chances of you prevailing in that game are pretty good. Of course there are other factors involved like the strength of your own defense, the strength of your opponent’s offense etc... But, you have already shown that your offense can beat their defense so at least that much is likely in your favor.

 

[Sunshinepacker]

I suspect that 21-4 number has very little to do with the opening kickoff. While not always true, I would guess that if you are able to march down the field on your opening possession, regardless of when that is, and score a touchdown, the chances of you prevailing in that game are pretty good. Of course there are other factors involved like the strength of your own defense, the strength of your opponent’s offense etc... But, you have already shown that your offense can beat their defense so at least that much is likely in your favor.

I agree. It's like coaches that claim, "we win most of the time when we run the ball 30+ times in a game"...it's not the running that leads to the win, it's the fact that you're winning that allows you to run. In this case, I would tend to agree that an opening possession score indicates that the other team's defense is not going to be able to stop the Packers' offense. So the record probably has more to do with who they were playing than actually saying, "kicking off first helps our team win."

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

I agree. It's like coaches that claim, "we win most of the time when we run the ball 30+ times in a game"...it's not the running that leads to the win, it's the fact that you're winning that allows you to run. In this case, I would tend to agree that an opening possession score indicates that the other team's defense is not going to be able to stop the Packers' offense. So the record probably has more to do with who they were playing than actually saying, "kicking off first helps our team win."

Agreed and in other words, its kind of a useless Stat, that people like to talk about.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

I suspect that 21-4 number has very little to do with the opening kickoff. While not always true, I would guess that if you are able to march down the field on your opening possession, regardless of when that is, and score a touchdown, the chances of you prevailing in that game are pretty good. Of course there are other factors involved like the strength of your own defense, the strength of your opponent’s offense etc... But, you have already shown that your offense can beat their defense so at least that much is likely in your favor.

The Packers are 41-12 (.774) when scoring a touchdown on the first possession of a game regardless of whether they received the opening kickoff or not.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

What's the Packers record when they call heads? Tails? I'm going to assume probably about the same correlation as when they defer or not.