Aaron Jones on this team

[tynimiller]

I guess for me, the whole purpose of the draft, is for teams to obtain the rights to employ a pool of players for 4-5 seasons. A pool that consists roughly of 200+ players. The first 180+ players selected are pretty much guaranteed to be drafted and get their shot in the NFL, it is just a matter of which team that shot is with. Each team is initially given 7 draft picks and each pick has a certain value to it for what it represents. So it is the job of a GM to invest those limited resources in players that will better their team and ultimately give them a positive return on their investment. GM's aren't trying to find talent in an endless pool of bodies , they are picking talent from a known pool of players and trying to find those players that best fit their teams future needs.

To give a GM credit for investing resources in a player that doesn't end up being a good investment for the team, but later goes somewhere else and flourishes is like a participation trophy to me. "Hey good job buddy, you were the one that picked him, he just didn't work out for your team, but hey, look what he's doing for the other team, he's awesome!"

Your example of Favre is actually a good one to prove this point. Falcons GM Ken Herock invested the 33rd pick in the 1991 draft in Favre. Smart GM, smart pick? It may have been, but for the Falcons, we will never know. Jerry Glanville was dead set against drafting Favre and basically put him on ice because of it. So Herock decides he isn't going to fight with Glanville and trades Favre to GM Ron Wolf. Which GM was the smarter one in this situation? Which GM should receive credit for knowing the value of Favre?

Evaluate a player, for what he does for his whole career. Evaluate a GM for what he does for his/her team, with the resources that he has at his disposal.

Why does the GM and his scouting department get the shaft though?? They identified an NFL worthy player and the coaches failed to deploy perhaps?

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

Why does the GM and his scouting department get the shaft though?? They identified an NFL worthy player and the coaches failed to deploy perhaps?

For the same reasons that a GM gets credit for a player that he obtains (draft, trade, FA, etc.) that excels for his team?

There are all sorts of reasons that a player doesn't work out for a team. So yes, while there are some "excuses" that can be made for a GM for drafting picks that don't pan out, the first question you have to ask is; "Why didn't said player pan out?". If its due to injury, then yeah, not really anyone's fault, just bad luck. Isn't the GM at the top of the hierarchy and making the drafting and hiring decisions for a team? A Football GM is supposed to sort through all the data and plug in the best pieces that he feels will all work together. If he drafts a player that doesn't mesh with the team/coaches, who's to blame? If you want to blame the coaches, who is ultimately in charge of them?

@OldSchool101 example of Favre and the Falcons bears this out. Sure, Herock recognized talent in Favre, but his HC (Glanville) absolutely didn't want Favre and proved that after he was drafted. Someone saying "Herock was a brilliant GM, he knew just how good Favre might be", isn't telling the whole story. Yes, Herock drafted a player that he saw potential in. However, you would be more correct if you said "Herock was an idiot, he drafted a FHOF QB and then traded him away. Favre would have eventually been drafted by another team, actually, possibly with the next pick by the Jets GM, Ron Wolf. The Jets didn't have a 1st round pick that year and Wolf absolutely loved Favre. How History for 3 teams may have changed, had the Falcons passed on Favre and Wolf selected him.

 

[tynimiller]

That's where we differ, the discussions are far more nuanced I believe than what you look at them as. Which is why whenever anyone starts discussions on historical picks and attempting to do a grading has to provide their thought process because as you and I have illustrated there will be picks which justifiably deserve an A grade AND a D depending on what your grading.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

That's where we differ, the discussions are far more nuanced I believe than what you look at them as. Which is why whenever anyone starts discussions on historical picks and attempting to do a grading has to provide their thought process because as you and I have illustrated there will be picks which justifiably deserve an A grade AND a D depending on what your grading.

Very much so. One should define if they are grading the value of the pick, the player or the GM?

When I grade a "Draft class", I essentially see it as grading each players impact on the team (that selected them) and then giving an overall grade to the GM that was in charge of that draft. A full draft grade can't really be given until all the players in that draft are with other teams or out of football.

I don't look at the Packers 2017 draft, which was conducted by TT and say "Man, Gute did a bad job with that class!" The success or failure of that class was on TT and his scouts. Overall, I give TT a D grade on that draft class. However, individually, I grade Aaron Jones as an A+ 5th round pick and a B for grabbing Jamaal Williams in the 4th. Now Aaron Jones, himself, remains an "A" "player in the NFL. He was for the Packers and he continued to be for the Vikings. I would give Viking GM Kwesi Adofo-Mensah an A+ grade for signing Jones to the contract that he did. Might even give Gute a D for letting Jones walk away.

If Gute and the Packers give up on Josh Myers and don't resign him, what will you give Gute as a Grade on selecting Myers? What will you give Myers as an overall grade as a player, thus far? Will either of those grades change in a year, if Myers is a Pro Bowl player for a new team in 2025?

 

[tynimiller]

Very much so. One should define if they are grading the value of the pick, the player or the GM?

When I grade a "Draft class", I essentially see it as grading each players impact on the team (that selected them) and then giving an overall grade to the GM that was in charge of that draft. A full draft grade can't really be given until all the players in that draft are with other teams or out of football.

I don't look at the Packers 2017 draft, which was conducted by TT and say "Man, Gute did a bad job with that class!" The success or failure of that class was on TT and his scouts. Overall, I give TT a D grade on that draft class. However, individually, I grade Aaron Jones as an A+ 5th round pick and a B for grabbing Jamaal Williams in the 4th. Now Aaron Jones, himself, remains an "A" "player in the NFL. He was for the Packers and he continued to be for the Vikings. I would give Viking GM Kwesi Adofo-Mensah an A+ grade for signing Jones to the contract that he did. Might even give Gute a D for letting Jones walk away.

If Gute and the Packers give up on Josh Myers and don't resign him, what will you give Gute as a Grade on selecting Myers? What will you give Myers as an overall grade as a player, thus far? Will either of those grades change in a year, if Myers is a Pro Bowl player for a new team in 2025?

Oooo Myers is the perfect recent example of the differences...if GB extends Myers to a second contract you're grading in how you typically view it would increase that grading...mine really wouldn't change at all still in that B- type range for me and extending or not won't change that.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

Oooo Myers is the perfect recent example of the differences...if GB extends Myers to a second contract you're grading in how you typically view it would increase that grading...mine really wouldn't change at all still in that B- type range for me and extending or not won't change that.

If Myers is extended, his draft grade won't change (for me) until we see what the Packers continue to get out of him. Nor will his player grade change (for me), until there is new data to possibly change it.

Now if the Bears sign him, I could give Gute a final grade for drafting him and what the return on the investment was.

Side note:

Looks like the Jets are basically purging themselves of everything Packers. Rodgers, Adams, Lazard and Hackett are all being reported as all but gone from the organization.

 

[tynimiller]

If Myers is extended, his draft grade won't change (for me) until we see what the Packers continue to get out of him. Nor will his player grade change (for me), until there is new data to possibly change it.

Now if the Bears sign him, I could give Gute a final grade for drafting him and what the return on the investment was.

Side note:

Looks like the Jets are basically purging themselves of everything Packers. Rodgers, Adams, Lazard and Hackett are all being reported as all but gone from the organization.

I saw Lazard and truthfully believe he or MVS for very different reasons could be EXCELLENT third tier FA acquisitions that firm up our teams floor/depth.

I especially like a cheap Lazard signing if their is any fruit from the tree of "Doubs is on way out"

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

I saw Lazard and truthfully believe he or MVS for very different reasons could be EXCELLENT third tier FA acquisitions that firm up our teams floor/depth.

I especially like a cheap Lazard signing if their is any fruit from the tree of "Doubs is on way out"

I guess if the Packers outlook on Watson is bleak and Doubs status for the future is a big question mark, it wouldn't hurt to have more veteran depth. At the right price, both Lazard and MVS would be able to get right up to speed with Love and the Packer offense.

That said, I don't want to see Gute just settle for more of the same, a WR room full of potential, but nobody achieves that potential. Love and the offense need a legit #1 WR and currently, one does not exist on the team. I don't see it happening, but at the right price, I would rather see Davante back in Green and Gold next season. He would combine both needs, a #1 WR and someone very familiar with Love and the system.

 

[tynimiller]

I guess if the Packers outlook on Watson is bleak and Doubs status for the future is a big question mark, it wouldn't hurt to have more veteran depth. At the right price, both Lazard and MVS would be able to get right up to speed with Love and the Packer offense.

That said, I don't want to see Gute just settle for more of the same, a WR room full of potential, but nobody achieves that potential. Love and the offense need a legit #1 WR and currently, one does not exist on the team. I don't see it happening, but at the right price, I would rather see Davante back in Green and Gold next season. He would combine both needs, a #1 WR and someone very familiar with Love and the system.

I could argue so many ways when it comes to how I'd handle it but a really big piece of the puzzle is truly unknowns to us average Joes:

Is Doubs all in for Green Bay or was last year's 'hiatus' issue more than just a blip on an otherwise healthy relationship AND truly if Watson heals 100% what does or how does GB think of him (is he in their minds a WR1 type with all the influence on the defense he causes)?

I envision Gute being active in the WR world of FA and/or trades, but Gute also has proven he's not going to pay DUMB level money or DUMB level trade equity for a guy. I think if GB wants that no DOUBT WR1 guy that steps in the whole room, the organization, the league and the guy embraces as WR1 that only happens with Davante Adams reunion. I personally don't even think that happens with Tee personally.

Now there is tremendous argument for how freaking good we've been and can be even without a clear WR1...if Reed and Doubs don't struggle with drops last year alone its crazy to think what we left out there (and I haven't even mentioned Wicks). Truly if Davante reunion isn't in the cards then I could see Gute do Gute type things and add at minimum a MVS/Lazard/DJ Chark level type signing just to depth that room up some, hit the draft and see what happens and then perhaps dip into the FA market for a WR2 type.

I also think we all cannot forget how efficient and amazing offenses of late have been in the NFL without that like All Pro WR but a bonafide STUD TE as one of the leading options....I firmly believe Kraft can be that fixture and that lessons a lot of weight the WR room has to carry. Shoot Luke Musgrave when healthy moves the center of the defense in many ways the same way Watson can move everyone in the defensive backfield with his vertical but also horizontal speed.

In truth I could also see Gute being quite secure if Doubs and them are in a good place, knowledge of Reed and Wicks both unhappy and motivated after a terrible drops season in 2024 to improve and just not do ANYTHING till after he sees what the draft does.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

I could argue so many ways when it comes to how I'd handle it but a really big piece of the puzzle is truly unknowns to us average Joes:

Agree and we really won't have any answers as to how Gute feels about the WR room, until Free Agency and the draft are basically completed.

While I get your sentiment that the Packers offense might be good enough with Kraft and our current group of WR's, especially with all of them being so young and with have another year under their belts. However, I'd prefer they upgrade the room through either a mid tier Veteran WR FA or a top 60 draft pick. Neither is a guarantee of upgrading the room, but I think it pushes everyone in that room, a little harder. Watson is going to appear as a PUP roster exemption, thus the depth chart currently is:

-Doubs
-Reed
-Wicks
-Heath
-Melton
-Johnson, Hicks, Griffin

While I do expect the first 4 players on the list to make a jump from their 2nd or 3rd years with the team, I just don't know how much you want to rely on it. Currently, that list, based off of 2024, just doesn't scream "Really talented" to me.

 

[tynimiller]

Agree and we really won't have any answers as to how Gute feels about the WR room, until Free Agency and the draft are basically completed.

While I get your sentiment that the Packers offense might be good enough with Kraft and our current group of WR's, especially with all of them being so young and with have another year under their belts. However, I'd prefer they upgrade the room through either a mid tier Veteran WR FA or a top 60 draft pick. Neither is a guarantee of upgrading the room, but I think it pushes everyone in that room, a little harder. Watson is going to appear as a PUP roster exemption, thus the depth chart currently is:

-Doubs
-Reed
-Wicks
-Heath
-Melton
-Johnson, Hicks, Griffin

While I do expect the first 4 players on the list to make a jump from their 2nd or 3rd years with the team, I just don't know how much you want to rely on it. Currently, that list, based off of 2024, just doesn't scream "Really talented" to me.

Oh trust me your conversing with a guy that would buy shirts for a fundraising campaign to get Gute's attention that he needs to sign Darius Slayton