Hey Packer fans!!
No smack fro me, just like talkin' football with knowledgeable fans.
So yeah, the last outing was pretty one-sided, but I have no expectation that it'll be the same this time around. I will say I'm pretty confident and I'll state why:
1) Health: I've seen some talk about the Packers getting some O-Linemen back, and of course that'll help since the front 4 of SF is a HUGE factor in their success. It should be noted though that its not like the Niners weren't under the gun last time around in terms of health. Despite the score, the Packers had success getting to the QB last time and alot of that was at the hands of Skule, the Niners backup LT. This time around, Joe Staley is back. Additionally, Kittle was in his first week back and had a bone chip in his ankle. He's far more healthy now.
On defense, its just a whole new world. In the first half of the season, the Niners were on a historic pace in terms of pass D. They were allowing something like 130 pass yards per game. Starting in the first Cards game, that began to turn. A few things happened. First, Kwon Alexander got hurt and Dre Greenlaw took his place. Dre was...well...green. Vs the Ravens, they lost Jaquiski Tartt, they SS who is very good. His replacement Marcel Harris is...not. They also lost Dee Ford, and his loss could not be overstated. It wasn't just his 6.5 sacks they lost. It was his presence that prevented teams from double and triple teaming Nick Bosa.
Add on to that the team ran a gauntlet of Sea, GB, Balt, NO, ATL (worst team in that stretch, and a game they lost down half their defensive starters), LA, and then Sea again all with a bye week in week FOUR. It was nuts.
Well, the bye was a miracle. They FINALLY got a bye after 13 straight games AND they got Kwon Alexander, Jaquiski Tartt, and most importantly, Dee Ford back. Dee is the big one because where they really struggled in his absence was on third down. Last week was the first time since the beginning of the year that they resembled that team on D that started 8-0.
2) Offense: When the D started to struggle, the O had to step up, and they did. Jimmy still will make mistakes as you would expect from a guy who has started 24 NFL games, but he also came through BIG in a few big moments. That gauntlet at the end of the year really tested them and they came out a better team.
Lest you think I'm just here to tell you how you have no chance, never fear, there are concerns.
1) Screens and Roll-outs: One thing that teams started doing (especially Atlanta and the Rams) is they started calling a HUGE number of screens and rollouts to escape the rush. With Dee out, the Niners had no outside defender with the speed to get out to cover the rollout and with Kwon ALexander and Jaquski Tartt out they didn't have guys who could rally up to shut down the screens. Well there is good news and bad news there. It has been and likely will remain a weakness, but the Niners have seen ALOT of those plays now and have improved in the way they cover them. Greenlaw has improved dramatically AND they get Kwon back.
Bottom line though, the Niner achilles heel is something unfortunately the Packers don't have...mobile QBs. Now when I say that I'm sure someone will rush in here to tell me how mobile Aaron is, and you'd be right, but that isn't what I'm talking about. I mean Kyler Murray, Russell Wilson, Lamar Jackson mobile. Rodgers is better than all three of those guys (Wilson being the only one close), but styles make fights. Rodgers can't just drop back and stand in the pocket. He'll get killed.
I have no doubt that the Packers will know this and will move the pocket by design and throw a ton of screens.
2) Run D: I've seen on this thread that some have quoted the Niner run D as an achilles heal. Yes and no. They have given up chunk plays in the run game and they do rank in the middle to bottom of run D in the NFL, but to be clear, its more a function of design than ability. What do I mean by that? As other have noted, Niner run a wide 9. IE, they CHOOSE to make themselves a bit more vulnerable for the ability to apply more pressure. However, when they decide they need to stop the run and they focus on it? They destroy it. All I heard all week was that Dalvin Cook was going to be trouble for SF. 18 yards on 9 carries. 2 yards per.
Still, there WILL be lanes there if Jones can get to them. Niners LBs are very fast and athletic, but they are also light and can get pushed back. If the Packers devote time and effort to the run, there could be room to be had there.
3) Aaron freakin Rodgers: He's Aaron Rodgers. I put nothing past him. Niners can have him dead to rights and he can sidearm a rocket for a first down. I put nothing past that guy.
All in all, I don't buy the National Media account that the Packers can't win. Of course they can. No team is unbeatable and recency bias has this way of making a team look invincible. I mean if you watched KC this weekend you'd think we should all pack up out tents and go home.
I'd also expect the Pack to be PUMPED for this one. Everyone is telling them they can't win. That makes them dangerous. Looking forward to it Cheeseheads.
