49ers -- NFCCG (who'da thunk these 2 teams in August)

[OldSchool101]

Again, as a matter of probability, an impactful special teams play is unlikely.

I’ll willing to bet that Cody Parker would strongly disagree with you. Double-Doink!

 

[HardRightEdge]

I’ll willing to bet that Cody Parker would strongly disagree with you. Double-Doink!

I'm guessing you mean Cody Parkey of double-doink infamy. I have no idea what Cody Parker or Cody Parkey would think.

What I do know is that a typical NFL kicker will make a 43 yard field goal somewhere around 75% of the time, give or take. The other 25% or so the guy will miss. That was one of the latter. If he'd made it you could say the same thing. The fact of the matter is few games come down to a last second field goal. Crosby had one with a 90+% make probability. Do with that what you will.

I think you're failing to make a distinction between execution and probability. Did I say special teams execution is unimportant? No, I did not, because that would be foolish. Is it probable that a special teams play will affect the outcome of a game? No, it is possible but unlikely.

It's a string of touchbacks, fair catches and short run backs. Like I said at the outset, Job #1 is don't fumble, basic execution. Job #2 is tackle, more basic execution. Anything outside basic execution is unlikely gravy or unlikely misfortune. A couple of ten yard punt returns does not qualify as impact, nice to have but not a game changer.

FG teams do what they do with certain probabilities. More and more teams forego the long FG and go for it on 4th. the down which gives you an idea of how the league has gotten smarter about these probabilities. A 65 yard punt is as likely as not to get you a touchback or a 15+ yard return coming back the other way.

To sit here and predict a long kick return, a ST fumble recovery, a blocked kick, an on-side recovery, etc. is a poor proposition.

 

[AmishMafia]

I am always going to believe the Packers are going to win. Sometimes it is tougher to convince myself. Having gotten throttled earlier this season, we certainly are not favored.

So here is what I am hanging my hat on:

1. Adams said the gameplan last time was lacking. We must have learned a few things from the game and I expect we will have a better plan.
2. Rumors are that Packer players were enjoying the California trip a little too much. I doubt they take such liberties this trip.
3. We looked good early and then made a stupid mistake turnover.
4. We have improved as a team since that game.
5. Rodgers has shown glimpses of better passing lately.
6. Packers seem to continue to gel as a team.
7. San Fran has got to be overly confident coming into this. Maybe they are looking past the Pack to Miami
8. Packers are a gritty team. They dont dominate but continually figure out ways to win.



Packers 23
49ers 20.

 

[rmontro]

I relish this kind of commentary. It reminds me of the time the Packers got all the attention and the Broncos got no respect prior to the SB. Afterward, several of the Broncos players said they kept their mouths shut but saved their anger for the game.

The key difference there is that we didn't play the Broncos that year in the regular season (although we did trounce them badly the year before 41-6). If we hadn't lost to the 49ers 37-8 earlier this year, more people would probably be giving us a chance. We basically made a statement that we couldn't hang with them. If it weren't for that game, there's no question the 49ers would still be favored, but I bet you'd be seeing more people predicting the upset.

 

[longtimefan]

I am always going to believe the Packers are going to win. Sometimes it is tougher to convince myself. Having gotten throttled earlier this season, we certainly are not favored.

So here is what I am hanging my hat on:

1. Adams said the gameplan last time was lacking. We must have learned a few things from the game and I expect we will have a better plan.
2. Rumors are that Packer players were enjoying the California trip a little too much. I doubt they take such liberties this trip.
3. We looked good early and then made a stupid mistake turnover.
4. We have improved as a team since that game.
5. Rodgers has shown glimpses of better passing lately.
6. Packers seem to continue to gel as a team.
7. San Fran has got to be overly confident coming into this. Maybe they are looking past the Pack to Miami
8. Packers are a gritty team. They dont dominate but continually figure out ways to win.



Packers 23
49ers 20.

Bulaga left early and Alex light was there...3 or sacks given up?

After that game defense Players met Monday before any coaches meetings..they went to all the explosive plays they gave up in every game from Frisco all way to 1st game.

Talked about what was wrong, where was communication, who was responsible, and how to correct.

I'm not sure of the number, but didn't the explosive plays go way down after?

 

[Sky King]

The key difference there is that we didn't play the Broncos that year in the regular season (although we did trounce them badly the year before 41-6). If we hadn't lost to the 49ers 37-8 earlier this year, more people would probably be giving us a chance. We basically made a statement that we couldn't hang with them. If it weren't for that game, there's no question the 49ers would still be favored, but I bet you'd be seeing more people predicting the upset.

I understand why the 49ers are favored just as I did when the Packers were heavy favorites to beat the Broncos. And I also remember as a fan feeling pretty confident that all the so-called experts and sportswriters must be right since it was virtually a unanimous opinion. It was when I read a column in a sporting weekly that my confidence developed some cracks.

The writer picked the Broncos to win primarily because everyone, including many of the Broncos' own fans, expected the Packers to prevail somewhat handily. The contrarian writer laid out his rationale that seemed counterintuitive to the core and I know that there were plenty of folks that scoffed at his column. But that column nagged me at the time because it got me to thinking that one of his points might just turn out to be correct. One of them was:

If the Packers believed all the press clippings, and why shouldn't they since practically the entire football world had unanimously predicted the game's outcome in advance -- How could so many experts be wrong? -- that playing the game was a mere formality. Except that it wasn't.

In fact, I hope the sportsbooks increase the point spread for Sunday's game even further in the 49ers favor. In addition, I hope that the vast majority of sportswriters, fans, and especially the 49er players, sop up all the praise that is currently being heaped upon them. And I give the edge to the team whose players praise their opponent rather than congratulate themselves.

Giving them little chance to win could turn out to be their (the Packers) 12th man.

 

[Poppa San]

https://www.packerforum.com/threads/49ers.44418/

Here is an earlier post from that same year.

Couldnt find my original thread it must have been deleted.

Thank goodness its gone!

I was a complete TROLL at the Time.

The super bowl loss to the Ravens really taught me humility...

Being welcomed back year after year and Allowed to post is something im Grateful for.

Your 1st post I believe from Sept 4 2012

OK Pack fans, U speak of balance offensively, but no offense, even the Saints can be a balanced unit vs our defense. Each and every team to face us including teams with elite running backs give up on the run and become pass heavy or unbalanced as some like to say. To beat us, GB will have to pass the ball 50 to 60 times and do so without error or turnover or fumble. Cedric Benson we faced last year and held him under 4yds per carry. We stuff every rushing attack en route to the passer without ever having to stack the box. This allows our DBs to completely immerse themselves in pass defense not having to worry about leakage up front. A passing team is what we want and we give up yards but not points while forcing a very high amount of turnovers on error and on downs. Then to cap things off, our ST is the league's best so when you have an elite defense and ST, you win the field position battle decidedly.

As for us being run heavy, that is what we do but this year we have playmakers at WR (not as good as yours) and at TE(VD and Walker are better than yours) to force teams to cover them so they can't stack the box to slow down Frank and Kendall. A defense like ours could stop the run with less than 8 in the box but one like yours simply cannot so you will be faced with a quandary stack up or get smacked up. And Benson had a lot of yardage over the years but he appeared to have stayed healthier than Gore with a lot more attempts with less than 4ypc whereas Frank has been a 5ypc RB most of his career. And you have 1 quality RB as to us having a stable along with a better run blocking OL and TEs that block better than anyone. You will not stuff our run and get us off the field without loading up and even then we will make plays in space. The Pack defense just can't cut it and we won't turn it over because we don't make ill advised gunslinging throws. This game will be more likely a battle of attrition and I like our chances.

And you quote the great Bill Walsh which every packer fan should since Holmgren but I was around when the Dallas Cowboys beat us when we had basically the same team GB had and Dallas had a team similar to ours. The sentiment around here was that DAL would not stop our offense and that we were too explosive, well it turned out to be the other way around. We could not score all those TDs we dreamed of because Emmitt and DAL OL was dominating us all game and when we overcommitted Irvin and Novacek were gashing us. They beat us in the trenches for 2 years straight OL and DL until we bought the Super Bowl in 94. We plan on doing the same thing to GB this year.

 

[5x49er]

Your 1st post I believe from Sept 4 2012

Good ole keyboard....

 

[PackAttack12]

49ers have been underrated all season long. The week before the Vikings game all we heard was how the Vikings beat the Saints and how they're going to upset the 9ers, "Vikings have more playoff experience", blah, blah, blah. All season long "who have they played", then when the beat teams like the Saints it's, "Breez had an off day", again blah, blah, blah.

Packers didn't see the 49ers best, the 9ers weren't even at full strength week 12. I don't think this game will be the same as last, I don't expect to see the same Packers team as last either. But to think you've seen everything the 9ers have to give already is just crazy.

I think both teams will be better than last game and I think the 9ers still have the edge.

Not many at all in the media gave the Vikings much of a chance based on what I read and saw.

 

[Zartan]

Packers 31 / 49ers 14

 

[RepStar15]

While I am not saying the Packers will win this game, I can promise this forum it will not be by 29 points this time around. I think it will be a close game that comes down to who has the ball last. 20-26 one way or the other.

 

[Do7]

My prediction is The Packers win by at least two possessions. Let's go with 28-17

 

[PackAttack12]

I’m going to rewatch the game tonight and then make my thoughts tomorrow on the game. I thought I still had it recorded but I suppose I don’t.

 

[HardRightEdge]

I am always going to believe the Packers are going to win. Sometimes it is tougher to convince myself.

I reckon my wishes and desires have no impact on the outcome, so I try to remove them from the equation.

SF's key team metrics have held steady or eroded slightly since the last meeting while the Packers have held steady or improved slightly.

The line on week 12 was SF -3 which would equate to a pick 'em on a neutral field. I had SF holding the balance of power to to significant degree, -11 to -12. In my estimation that may have been one of the more pronounced market inefficiencies this season.

Now, I have SF as a 6.1 point favorite, effectively 6 1/2 and within the margin of error vs. the far more efficient 7 1/2 consensus.

In the first matchup, the Packers came into it needing to play a clean game. The opening possession strip sack and ensuing SF TD immediatly put them in 18 - 19 point hole. This offense is not built to overcome that kind of deficit against that kind of defense. This is not Kansas City. The game was over before it had hardly begun.

In the final analysis, you cannot expect a win, but 6 1/2 points is not so prohibitive as to rule out being pleasantly surprised.

As always, what I want to see is a well-played, hard-fought football game with fundamental mistakes kept to a minimum and may the best team on this day win.

 

[HardRightEdge]

Key injuries to monitor for SF:

George Kittle - DNP yesterday (ankle)
Dee Ford - DNP yesterday (quad, hamstring)

It's never a bad idea to limit some players to ease them into the week when they are dealing with nagging injuries. DNP's are significant though. Perhaps they both give it a go on Sunday, but I'll be interested to see their participation level today.

I would be quite surprised if these guys don't strap it on and play. How many snaps and for how long might be a question.

 

[HardRightEdge]

Somebody posted an SF play chart from the Vikings game, which I can't find at the moment, illustrating SF's preference for attacking the middle of the field. If the NFL is a game of matchups, which it is, then Mr. Martinez will need to play his best game. Perhaps we'll see some defensive wrinkles to improve that matchup imbalance.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

On ESPN they pointed out that Garoppollo's stats this year are very similar to Rodgers' the year he won the Super Bowl. That's surprising, considering how lauded Rodgers was and how Garoppollo is seen as more of a weak spot by many.

While Garropolo's rating is similar to the one Rodgers posted in 2010 there's no chance he puts up a performance like Rodgers did against Atlanta and the Steelers during the Packers Super Bowl run.

 

[rmontro]

Saw this on The Herd today: The Packers have the best all time postseason record at 35-22. No big surprise considering their history. But if the 49ers win this Sunday, they overtake GB for best postseason percentage. Currently they are at 32-21.

 

[PackAttack12]

Another thing I haven't thought about/considered until today:

It's the 100th year of the National Football League. How fitting would it be for a rematch of Super Bowl I? Green Bay v.s. Kansas City. With arguably the two most talented throwers of the football of all time. The two guys who many considered are the most talented total package of quarterbacks for sure in this generation, and perhaps ever?

100th year
Packers/Chiefs rematch from Super Bowl I
Rodgers/Mahomes

The collective heads of anyone associated with the NFL would explode for happiness if this matchup actually comes to fruition.

 

[5x49er]

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[Do7]

Another thing I haven't thought about/considered until today:

It's the 100th year of the National Football League. How fitting would it be for a rematch of Super Bowl I? Green Bay v.s. Kansas City. With arguably the two most talented throwers of the football of all time. The two guys who many considered are the most talented total package of quarterbacks for sure in this generation, and perhaps ever?

100th year
Packers/Chiefs rematch from Super Bowl I
Rodgers/Mahomes

The collective heads of anyone associated with the NFL would explode for happiness if this matchup actually comes to fruition.

You're late to the party on that regard. A lot of people have been under suspicion that the NFL will rig it to have those two teams match up.

 

[5x49er]

I am always going to believe the Packers are going to win. Sometimes it is tougher to convince myself. Having gotten throttled earlier this season, we certainly are not favored.

So here is what I am hanging my hat on:

1. Adams said the gameplan last time was lacking. We must have learned a few things from the game and I expect we will have a better plan.
2. Rumors are that Packer players were enjoying the California trip a little too much. I doubt they take such liberties this trip.
3. We looked good early and then made a stupid mistake turnover.
4. We have improved as a team since that game.
5. Rodgers has shown glimpses of better passing lately.
6. Packers seem to continue to gel as a team.
7. San Fran has got to be overly confident coming into this. Maybe they are looking past the Pack to Miami
8. Packers are a gritty team. They dont dominate but continually figure out ways to win.



Packers 23
49ers 20.

nope

 

[5x49er]

Packers 31 / 49ers 14

 

[AmishMafia]

nope

It's a very compelling counter argument. Your powerful debate skills and well conceived reasoning gave me pause, I will admit. But, i think i will stick with my first conclusion.

 

[5x49er]

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