2025 NFL Free Agency

[Thirteen Below]

There’s about a Dozen WR’s who hold a Day1-2 grade this draft. There’s probably 3-4 that fit our team pretty well. I’d also consider working a trade for a known quantity, veteran WR.

The last three mocks I saw had us taking a WR at #23, and none of them the same player. I'd have been happy with any of them, although I'd rather we go CB.

But that's assuming we even draft at #23, which I think is pretty much a coin toss. In 7 years, Gutekunst has traded either up or down in the first round something like 6 times, and sometimes both in the same year. I think there's a pretty good chance that Gutekunst trades down into the lower end of the 1st, and still takes a receiver. There'll be a good one still on the board 5 or 6 picks later, and Gute loves having extra picks - especially in a year in which we only have 8.

Gute has made 8 picks only once in 7 years, and averages over 10 picks per draft - 71 picks in 7 years. I'm sure he's going to do some wheeling and dealing at some point before it's all said and done.

 

[Curly Calhoun]

The last three mocks I saw had us taking a WR at #23, and none of them the same player. I'd have been happy with any of them, although I'd rather we go CB.

But that's assuming we even draft at #23, which I think is pretty much a coin toss. In 7 years, Gutekunst has traded either up or down in the first round something like 6 times, and sometimes both in the same year. I think there's a pretty good chance that Gutekunst trades down into the lower end of the 1st, and still takes a receiver. There'll be a good one still on the board 5 or 6 picks later, and Gute loves having extra picks - especially in a year in which we only have 8.

Gute has made 8 picks only once in 7 years, and averages over 10 picks per draft - 71 picks in 7 years. I'm sure he's going to do some wheeling and dealing at some point before it's all said and done.

My guess pick #23 plays defense.

DT, CB, edge rusher...One of those.

 

[Thirteen Below]

We are essentially the same team, less an above average Box Defender in losing E Wilson.

Same team, but - with an additional year's experience for almost all of our key players, most of whom only have 2 years or less in the NFL. It's often said that for most good players, it seems that the improvement when they move from Year 2 to Year 3 is the biggest step forward in their entire career. I'm eager to see who starts to take big next steps in camp this summer.

When I read that McKinney was getting, I think, a $17 mil AAV contract that looked high by $3 or $4 mil. But hey, the guy lived up to his contract and then some. Same for Jacobs.

Not only that, but that contract that we locked McKinney into last year would have been significantly more expensive if we'd signed him this year. It's looking like a bargain, in the context of this year's free agent price tags. If Aaron Banks is worth $77M over 6 years, Xavier McKinney is a steal at $68M for 4.

This was just not a good year for Gluten to chase WRs and Edge guys. Sometimes the best course of action is to stand pat.

I initially wanted to get a veteran WR this year, until they started ringing them up at the register. When I saw the contracts, I wanted no part of them. This draft is very deep at both positions, and we should be able to get quality players both on Day One and Day Two.

we need to key at WR, LB and iDL. Yet we’re have the rest of FA, the Draft and cutdowns. Lots of time to get better, but time is $$ and waiting is prudent.

I doubt we'll see any more free agent action in Green Bay until at least after the draft, and much more likely after roster cuts. From the way Gutekunst is managing this offseason, I just have a stronger and stronger feeling that's his plan unless a bargain should somehow present itself. But the odds of that happening at this point are slim. Either way, I don't think he has any interest in any of the remaining free agents.

 

[Thirteen Below]

There's something fundamentally wrong with the Bears' organization. I have no idea what is is.

As for the Vikes, it's been almost sixty years of....... nothing. There's been a lot of hype, and some really good teams, but they can't pull free from their past.

Totally agree with both; there's just no arguing it.

But remember - things can always change, and change quickly. Just 2 years ago at this time, we were saying exactly the same thing about the Lions. Then what happened? They finally smartened up and hired a very good GM, who set about building a winning culture. He started drafting well, and hired a very good head coach who immediately put together a very good staff. In 3 years, Detroit has emerged as one of the Top 5 teams in the NFL, a serious championship contender for the first time in 70 years.

The Vikings appear to be following a similar path - hired a good GM, who hired a very good head coach, and the two of them began building a winning culture. They haven't become as good as Detroit, but they're at an earlier stage, and they have to be taken seriously.

The Bears? I dunno. They're still the Bears, until they start to prove that they no longer are. And they're sure not there yet. Far as I'm concerned, jury is still out on Poles, but I give him credit for finally hiring a head coach who has the potential to be great, and - again - is totally committed to building a winning culture. And they've drafted a quarterback who still has a number of question marks, but has the tools to become an elite QB.

Of course, the Bears have a track record of destroying young quarterbacks, and that may very well be what happens again. And like I said, I'm not sure bout Poles at all - I really think he's in over his head, because he makes some incredibly stupid personnel decisions, but... sometimes people learn from their mistakes.

I think this is the year we find out how good Poles actually is. He made some very bold moves in free agency, but overall his free agency history is uneven, and not particularly impressive. This year's group is very "boom or bust" - if it works, he'll look like a genius, but he took some real risks and committed a lot of salary cap to some players who don't exactly look like bargains. They're going to have to play just about to their maximum potential to justify their contracts.

His drafting history is also less than impressive. They only have 7 picks this year, so he's going to have to make every single one of them count, but again they draft in the Top Ten, so he has that going for him.

The Bears don't appear to be an immediate threat, but if Ben Johnson succeeds in uniting and motivating the team, and some of Poles' free agents and draft choices turn out to be better than they have, they might become a much tougher team to beat. But I don't think this would be the year yet.

 

[Heyjoe4]

I think we need to security blanket through FA at 2-3 of
WR
LB
DT
or maybe TE
with lower $ signings (under $5mil yearly)
Then use our Top 5 Rounds in 2-3 of those areas to overlap with a young, inspiring player. Might get lucky with a young Kenny Clark type

As FA winds down, it’s shaping up to be very possible that GB selects at WR and early.

I won't be surprised if Gluten takes a WR at #23, but I don't expect it. Most likely he takes the best CB/Edge guy available. LB not out of the question.

 

[Heyjoe4]

Totally agree with both; there's just no arguing it.

But remember - things can always change, and change quickly. Just 2 years ago at this time, we were saying exactly the same thing about the Lions. Then what happened? They finally smartened up and hired a very good GM, who set about building a winning culture. He started drafting well, and hired a very good head coach who immediately put together a very good staff. In 3 years, Detroit has emerged as one of the Top 5 teams in the NFL, a serious championship contender for the first time in 70 years.

The Vikings appear to be following a similar path - hired a good GM, who hired a very good head coach, and the two of them began building a winning culture. They haven't become as good as Detroit, but they're at an earlier stage, and they have to be taken seriously.

The Bears? I dunno. They're still the Bears, until they start to prove that they no longer are. And they're sure not there yet. Far as I'm concerned, jury is still out on Poles, but I give him credit for finally hiring a head coach who has the potential to be great, and - again - is totally committed to building a winning culture. And they've drafted a quarterback who still has a number of question marks, but has the tools to become an elite QB.

Of course, the Bears have a track record of destroying young quarterbacks, and that may very well be what happens again. And like I said, I'm not sure bout Poles at all - I really think he's in over his head, because he makes some incredibly stupid personnel decisions, but... sometimes people learn from their mistakes.

I think this is the year we find out how good Poles actually is. He made some very bold moves in free agency, but overall his free agency history is uneven, and not particularly impressive. This year's group is very "boom or bust" - if it works, he'll look like a genius, but he took some real risks and committed a lot of salary cap to some players who don't exactly look like bargains. They're going to have to play just about to their maximum potential to justify their contracts.

His drafting history is also less than impressive. They only have 7 picks this year, so he's going to have to make every single one of them count, but again they draft in the Top Ten, so he has that going for him.

The Bears don't appear to be an immediate threat, but if Ben Johnson succeeds in uniting and motivating the team, and some of Poles' free agents and draft choices turn out to be better than they have, they might become a much tougher team to beat. But I don't think this would be the year yet.

FWIW the Lions played their hand brilliantly when they traded Stafford to the Rams. The Rams collapsed the following year and the picks the Lions got became much more valuable. So I wasn't that surprised to see them thrive, but like the Vikes, they have to escape the gravitational pull of their past.

In fairness, the Lions D was decimated by injuries going into the playoffs. So it takes a little luck to wi a SB as well as a lot of talent. They have a chip on their shoulder after losing to the Commanders. Campbell will make the most of that.

 

[Thirteen Below]

My guess pick #23 plays defense.

DT, CB, edge rusher...One of those.

Personally, I'm hoping CB. Edge might be a good choice, if the right player falls to 23, but I think it would be easier to meet that need on Day 2 than it would be to get a quality QB in Rounds 2 or 3.

I won't be surprised if Gluten takes a WR at #23, but I don't expect it. Most likely he takes the best CB/Edge guy available. LB not out of the question.

I'll go a step further and say I wouldn't necessarily be disappointed if he goes WR, if he thinks it's the right guy. I don't see him using such a high pick ion a linebacker though, after taking Cooper and Hopper so early last year - and especially when we really don't know yet what we have in Hopper.

 

[Heyjoe4]

Personally, I'm hoping CB. Edge might be a good choice, if the right player falls to 23, but I think it would be easier to meet that need on Day 2 than it would be to get a quality QB in Rounds 2 or 3.



I'll go a step further and say I wouldn't necessarily be disappointed if he goes WR, if he thinks it's the right guy. I don't see him using such a high pick ion a linebacker though, after taking Cooper and Hopper so early last year - and especially when we really don't know yet what we have in Hopper.

Yeah LB would be a long shot at #23, esp considering other needs. Hopper may make a sophomore jump, and I think just the presence of Cooper will allow Walker to focus more on his strengths.

The WR like is Matthew Golden, although he may be a reach at #23. Most mocks I've seen have him going late 1st, early 2nd.

I have to remind myself that the Packers already have a good D. Their biggest failing last year was an inability to get pressure on the QB. Trading for Hendrickson from Cinn seems to still be on the table. I just don't see Gluten making a commitment to a 30 year old guy, at any position.

So where is the most help needed, offense or defense? I think it's a toss up and gives Gluten the luxury of taking the BPA at #23.

 

[SudsMcBucky]

FWIW the Lions played their hand brilliantly when they traded Stafford to the Rams. The Rams collapsed the following year and the picks the Lions got became much more valuable. So I wasn't that surprised to see them thrive, but like the Vikes, they have to escape the gravitational pull of their past.

In fairness, the Lions D was decimated by injuries going into the playoffs. So it takes a little luck to wi a SB as well as a lot of talent. They have a chip on their shoulder after losing to the Commanders. Campbell will make the most of that.

I'm waiting to see how the Lions do now that they have to replace both coordinators.

 

[OldSchool101]

The last three mocks I saw had us taking a WR at #23, and none of them the same player. I'd have been happy with any of them, although I'd rather we go CB.

But that's assuming we even draft at #23, which I think is pretty much a coin toss. In 7 years, Gutekunst has traded either up or down in the first round something like 6 times, and sometimes both in the same year. I think there's a pretty good chance that Gutekunst trades down into the lower end of the 1st, and still takes a receiver. There'll be a good one still on the board 5 or 6 picks later, and Gute loves having extra picks - especially in a year in which we only have 8.

Gute has made 8 picks only once in 7 years, and averages over 10 picks per draft - 71 picks in 7 years. I'm sure he's going to do some wheeling and dealing at some point before it's all said and done.

Amen. IF the perfect selection isn’t there.. I LOVE the idea of trading back 2,4,6 spots etc. Often in Day 1 that’s an earlier 4th Round to later 3rd pickup (maybe parting with a later Day3 selection). Having a pair of 4ths is strong. Totally agree as long as the trade is fair I’m not desperate either.

 

[Heyjoe4]

I'm waiting to see how the Lions do now that they have to replace both coordinators.

Good point Suds.

I don't remember the last time a team lost both coordinators in one season. Not only were they good, they gave Campbell the luxury of keeping an eye (and ahead of) the entire game. It's something I wish MLF would consider, or even a game-manager coordinator, or something like that.

Anyway you look at it, it's a huge loss for the Lions. I think Campbell will be up to the task of replacing them. The Lions will still be a tough out.

 

[Heyjoe4]

Amen. IF the perfect selection isn’t there.. I LOVE the idea of trading back 2,4,6 spots etc. Often in Day 1 that’s an earlier 4th Round to later 3rd pickup (maybe parting with a later Day3 selection). Having a pair of 4ths is strong. Totally agree as long as the trade is fair I’m not desperate either.

I won't be surprised if Gluten trades back from round 1, draft day in GB or not. As Ty pointed out, making a first round pick on draft day in GB will not come before doing what it best for the team, the way it should and will be.

This draft really drops in quality toward the back half of round 1, but is strong in iDL and Edge. By now, nothing Gluten can do will surprise us....... I think.

 

[PikeBadger]

Kendall Fuller releasing from Dolphins is just the signing I could embrace. Being a cut won’t impact comp pick formula even which isn’t a worry but is a bonus.

Why was he cut?

 

[tynimiller]

Why was he cut?

Dolphins shed some vets for space reasons.

 

[DoURant]

Packers re-sign LB Kristian Welch. He was with the team the past couple years, but was one of the last cuts after having a real nice Training Camp last year. Played ST's prior year, and could be a Eric Wilson replacement.

 

[OldSchool101]

It’s been quiet in FA as of late and likely will be until Post Draft. We don’t need to pigeonhole ourselves too much positionally going into this Draft. I suspect we see some activity again post draft, once we lock down players and see how the draft falls.

 

[Heyjoe4]

It’s been quiet in FA as of late and likely will be until Post Draft. We don’t need to pigeonhole ourselves too much positionally going into this Draft. I suspect we see some activity again post draft, once we lock down players and see how the draft falls.

There will be veteran acquisitions here and there that won't amount to much aside from filling depth roles. I suppose a big trade could happen. I just don't see it.

Gluten is gonna need an outstanding draft. He's very capable of pulling it off.

 

[OldSchool101]

There will be veteran acquisitions here and there that won't amount to much aside from filling depth roles. I suppose a big trade could happen. I just don't see it.

Gluten is gonna need an outstanding draft. He's very capable of pulling it off.

His drafts have been pretty good overall, so yes, Gluten is very capable of sticking it. Let’s assume you are correct and we add zero bonafide starters to our lineup, which is possible.

Doing a player accounting balance sheet…
If you offered me this option?
Hobbs + Banks ? OR Stokes + Myers ?
It’s easy for me it’s Hobbs and Banks and it’s really not even close imo.

Then it comes down to subtracting and adding on the balance sheet
A losses
iDT TJ Slaton
Istrong LB3+ rotational (Eric Wilson)
WR2- (Christian Watson)
DB5-6 Teams players (Rochelle/Ballentine)

VS

B gains

LB4 Christian Welch
TE Luke Musgrave (missed 12 games)
LT/OG Jordan Morgan (missed 16 games)
WR4-/KR Mecole Hardman
RB2/RB3 Marshawn Lloyd
#23 Overall draft
#54 overall “ “
#87 overall
#124 overall
#159 overall
#198 overall
Two 7ths.
*Bonus Possibility of having J’aire exceeding his 7 full 2024 contests
*Bonus Possibility of Watson returning late season

 

[OldSchool101]

The other aspect of this whole FA discussion is the Packers have $28.6Mil available Cap space per OTC. Obviusky they’ll need to sign their draft class and PS and all that, plus leave some contingency reserves. I still think we could see a couple of value additions as the dust settles. It wouldn’t surprise me to see that $3.5-4.5Mil yearly contract doled out to bolster a position group with a known veteran quantity.

My best guess is we can get 2-3 contributors from this class if we’re smart about it. Covering WR and DT would be wise. A WR at minimum in Day1-2 but likely using #23, #45 in some capacity.

I feel like if we had to wait? We could bring in a iDL from outside or even use a #87 selection and get someone pretty good. There’s alot of options at iDL RD2-4 area.

 

[tynimiller]

I still am a betting man that Zach Tom extension is happening still yet too…

 

[tynimiller]

Not to mention they may in place of a fifth year option on Quay and Wyatt offer a one year extension splitting the cost of that fifth year into this year and next but putting majority of that money in their pocket now as the sweetener to do the deal - just like they did with Love.

I could understand this for sure

 

[Heyjoe4]

Not to mention they may in place of a fifth year option on Quay and Wyatt offer a one year extension splitting the cost of that fifth year into this year and next but putting majority of that money in their pocket now as the sweetener to do the deal - just like they did with Love.

I could understand this for sure

FA didn't offer a lot of options for what is needed in GB, and big trades for WR and Edge didn't make sense (it seems that way).

So that leaves the Packers with a bit more money. Really like the idea of getting Tom's contract squared away, and offering one year extensions to Walker and Wyatt makes sense - everybody wins. Now if Walker and Wyatt somehow step up big time in their performance, they'll want to get paid after the extensions. That would be a good problem to have.

But at a minimum, getting Tom's deal settled and signed is important. One less thing to worry about next year, when a lot of decisions need to be made about Packer FAs.

 

[Heyjoe4]

The other aspect of this whole FA discussion is the Packers have $28.6Mil available Cap space per OTC. Obviusky they’ll need to sign their draft class and PS and all that, plus leave some contingency reserves. I still think we could see a couple of value additions as the dust settles. It wouldn’t surprise me to see that $3.5-4.5Mil yearly contract doled out to bolster a position group with a known veteran quantity.

My best guess is we can get 2-3 contributors from this class if we’re smart about it. Covering WR and DT would be wise. A WR at minimum in Day1-2 but likely using #23, #45 in some capacity.

I feel like if we had to wait? We could bring in a iDL from outside or even use a #87 selection and get someone pretty good. There’s alot of options at iDL RD2-4 area.

My guess is that - if - one of the top WRs is available at #23 (Golden, for ex), Gluten will grab him and use round 2 for either iDL or Edge. The need at WR is more urgent, imo, and given that the draft is rich with DL talent.

Of course there is still a need at CB. I'm pretty sure Gluten knows now whether JA will be back, or not. My guess is that he stays. The potential benefit (Pro Bowl or All Pro play at corner) outweighs the downside of using the draft to find an impact, day-1 type corner.

 

[tynimiller]

For some struggling with picturing what I'm speaking to with Quay and Devonte.... The team has until May 2nd to declare if they are picking up the fifth year option that only happens or can happen with first rounders.

Quay as an example, given how much time he has played falls under the playtime fifth year option which is projected to be $14,751,000 for 2026 IF we pick it up.
2025 Quay Price Tag - $4,404,159
2026 FIFTH Yr Option - $14,751,000

Paying Quay Top5 money right now wouldn't be defendable...BUT if you did a 1 year extension and did the signing bonus like we did with Love his hits could be:
2025 Quay Price Tag - $10,000,000
2026 Price Tag - $9,100,000
*Essentially hitting the team with the same gross total, but splitting the hit and making him MUCH more palatable to the cap AND we already know he is here in 2025 for certain.
OR the team could even come to an agreement of slightly less than what the fifth year would be and have his two year hit maybe $8M this year and $8M next year but he still is taking home a serious amount of coin and if he plays well in 2025 there is no way the team doesn't keep him at the decent rate of $8M or so.

Same thing could be done with Wyatt who is projected to have a fifth year IF used of $13,922,000

The team can wait to see how the draft plays out...if say an off ball backer they love somehow is there where they never envisioned...well you draft him and bank on not needing Quay beyond 2025 and don't pick up the fifth year or do the extension....but if no off balls are drafted or just a late day 3 flyer that you don't know, an extension as discussed is almost like providing some positional security, with a still young known commodity that you might still get more out of.