2025 NFL Free Agency

[OldSchool101]

Agree, as usual. All three other North teams jumped headfirst into free agency, every one of them going all in and making a major effort to push themselves ahead of the other three. Gutekunst basically stood pat - adding an above-average corner, and replacing Myers with Banks.

There's no reasonable chance that we can match all those moves in the draft, especially with only 8 picks this year and picking in the #23 slot. Gutekunst may have a trade in mind, but it's not likely a single trade would improve the team as much as free agency improved the rest of the division. He chose to largely ignore the free agent market, so it seems to me that he's putting most of his chips on the hope that a number of the 2nd and 3rd year players take a big step forward in their development.

I don't want to sound pessimistic, because I trust the man to know what he's doing. But the fact that both of the teams who finished ahead of us, as well as the team that finished behind us, all made substantial moves to put themselves ahead of the other three teams (while we basically stood pat), makes me a little nervous.

The Vikings also might/will lose

Cam Robinson
Stephen Gilmore
Shaquille Griffin,
Jerry Tillery,
Dalton Risner,
Brandon Powell,
David Quisenberry,
Dan Feeney
Jihad Ward
Trent Sherfield
Fabian Moreau
Ed Ingram
Johnny Mundt
Nick Mullens
Patrick Jones II
Cam Akers
Cam Bynum
Kamu Kruger-Hill
Daniel Jones
Sam Darnold
Jeremy Flax

LT, LG, RG, LG, RG
Starting QB, backup QB, RB, WR
CB, CB, CB, LB, S , IDL

They signed
RT, C
backup QB,
IDL, iDL, CB, CB

They improved at DL and mostly have lost at every position group. They have spent a league leading $265Mil this offseason and have on contract an unknown quantity at starting QB.
If JJ McCarthy doesn’t work out? they could tank. Everything rides on a 1st year starting QB or going $350Mil+ in spending with a QB who very likely will not match Sam Darnold production. Which means they lose at QB

4,312 yards 102% Passer 35TD 12 INT.
They MUST exceed that to have a chance to offset losses.

What position groups will GB be guaranteed to lose in 2025 over 2024? Let’s take a look at who and their potential impact …

 

[OldSchool101]

The Packers lost to FA:

AJ Dillon
Eric Stokes
Corey Ballentine
Josh Myers
Eric Wilson
Andre Dillard
Tyler Davis
Robert Rochelle
John Fitzpatrick
Ellis Meriweather

RB lost for 2024 season
CB STARTER < average graded
CB Core ST 50%; 8% of D snaps
OC (STARTER < average graded
LB (KEY ROTATIONAL STARTER)
LT played 13 snaps on Off;20% Teams
TE lost for 2024 season
CB who had 2 tackles 1FR on Teams
TE who had 1 rec 2 yards
RB (no 2024 stats)

3 players who had meaningful impact
3 players with minimal impact
4 players with little to ZERO impact

* I have our biggest loss impact in FA as

*Eric Wilson. He played 51% Defensive snaps and 73% Teams and was a well above average LB and great Teams contributor. His services will be missed. However Eric also has 400 combined tackles of wear n tear at 31yrs old this September. Time to look towards the future here

*Eric Stokes was a regular contributor, but ranked poorly in several key categories.
0 PD 0 INT 0 TFL 0 Sacks 0 FF
You almost couldn’t try being that bad So much so, that Our answer was to bring in a projected upgrade in Nate Hobbs.

*Josh Myers. Well I don’t need to do much explaining. While I’ll personally give him “serviceable”, he was a poor investment for a 2nd Round pick. We already have our answer to Myers departure and it’s likely an upgrade with Elgton reducing inside.

 

[AKCheese]

We lost our punter???

 

[OldSchool101]

We lost our punter???

correction took him off the list. I missed they recently signed him a minimal $1mil deal. Might’ve been as much they didn’t want to try a new holder, he’s good there. Whelan has been a relative disappointment imo though, ranking bottom 12 in multiple key categories.

 

[GreenNGold_81]

Tee Higgins re-signed with Cinci. Keenan and/or draft a WR now.

 

[OldSchool101]

Tee Higgins re-signed with Cinci. Keenan and/or draft a WR now.

Interesting. I’d still prefer Drafting one, unless we find a trade partner at WR with someone under a <=$10mil yearly

There’s about a Dozen WR’s who hold a Day1-2 grade this draft. There’s probably 3-4 that fit our team pretty well. I’d also consider working a trade for a known quantity, veteran WR.

 

[Heyjoe4]

Agree, as usual. All three other North teams jumped headfirst into free agency, every one of them going all in and making a major effort to push themselves ahead of the other three. Gutekunst basically stood pat - adding an above-average corner, and replacing Myers with Banks.

There's no reasonable chance that we can match all those moves in the draft, especially with only 8 picks this year and picking in the #23 slot. Gutekunst may have a trade in mind, but it's not likely a single trade would improve the team as much as free agency improved the rest of the division. He chose to largely ignore the free agent market, so it seems to me that he's putting most of his chips on the hope that a number of the 2nd and 3rd year players take a big step forward in their development.

I don't want to sound pessimistic, because I trust the man to know what he's doing. But the fact that both of the teams who finished ahead of us, as well as the team that finished behind us, all made substantial moves to put themselves ahead of the other three teams (while we basically stood pat), makes me a little nervous.

I have to give Gluten credit for not trying to make something out of nothing. There simply wasn't a good alignment with team needs and available free agents, or trades that were prohibitively costly.

Does that mean this isn't the year for a big AND legitimate push for a SB? Not necessarily. GMs and HCs have to do with what is available and not overextend or mortgage the future. Giving Metcalf a 5-year deal at $150 mil would have been a bad idea, so let the Steelers have him. Just an example.

We'll still have plenty to look forward to. And unexpected things happen every season - both good and bad. Nothing wrong with a little luck, and a great draft.......

 

[Heyjoe4]

The bears win every off season and Vikings often too...

There's something fundamentally wrong with the Bears' organization. I have no idea what is is.

As for the Vikes, it's been almost sixty years of....... nothing. There's been a lot of hype, and some really good teams, but they can't pull free from their past.

 

[El Guapo]

It's the Ed Thorpe Trophy curse. Luckily they can't do anything about it because the trophy is in Green Bay.

 

[Sanguine camper]

There's something fundamentally wrong with the Bears' organization. I have no idea what is is.

As for the Vikes, it's been almost sixty years of....... nothing. There's been a lot of hype, and some really good teams, but they can't pull free from their past.

The Bears overpaid an OT from KC that was an absolute turnstile in the SB. While Josh Sweat is a good player, there are plenty of pass rushers in the NFL with his ability. Most weeks, a team's best pass rusher could put him back on his roller skates like the SB game and push him into Caleb Williams lap all game long. I think the Bears got better in their other major offensive line free agent move, but it might not matter much if Thuney is getting pushed around.

 

[Schultz]

Thuney is a very good guard who played average LT (until the SB) due to an injury to the starter. He will be at LG for DA Bears.

 

[milani]

Agree, as usual. All three other North teams jumped headfirst into free agency, every one of them going all in and making a major effort to push themselves ahead of the other three. Gutekunst basically stood pat - adding an above-average corner, and replacing Myers with Banks.

There's no reasonable chance that we can match all those moves in the draft, especially with only 8 picks this year and picking in the #23 slot. Gutekunst may have a trade in mind, but it's not likely a single trade would improve the team as much as free agency improved the rest of the division. He chose to largely ignore the free agent market, so it seems to me that he's putting most of his chips on the hope that a number of the 2nd and 3rd year players take a big step forward in their development.

I don't want to sound pessimistic, because I trust the man to know what he's doing. But the fact that both of the teams who finished ahead of us, as well as the team that finished behind us, all made substantial moves to put themselves ahead of the other three teams (while we basically stood pat), makes me a little nervous.

The other two teams that finished ahead of us turned out to be one and done in the playoffs just like us. And they were favored to win. Gute is banking on the development of players going from 1 to 2 and 2 to 3 years of experience believing they can get better. Which ones will and which will not? Davante Adams was one that showed shades of brilliance as a rookie. But it was several seasons before he became a star.

 

[milani]

The Bears overpaid an OT from KC that was an absolute turnstile in the SB. While Josh Sweat is a good player, there are plenty of pass rushers in the NFL with his ability. Most weeks, a team's best pass rusher could put him back on his roller skates like the SB game and push him into Caleb Williams lap all game long. I think the Bears got better in their other major offensive line free agent move, but it might not matter much if Thuney is getting pushed around.

Bears are known to overpay. I cannot forget Khalil Mack.

 

[mradtke66]

Bears are known to overpay. I cannot forget Khalil Mack.

I'd say most (all?) teams overpay in free agency. If only because this is one of the few times that all 32 teams get to bid on players in an open market.

The Bears overpaid an OT from KC that was an absolute turnstile in the SB.

Thuney is a guard that was forced into playing LT for the Chiefs due to injury. Chicago will most likely return him to his natural position. He probably got more than he's worth due to his age (33), but he's making less than both Banks and Jenkins.

 

[Sanguine camper]

I'd say most (all?) teams overpay in free agency. If only because this is one of the few times that all 32 teams get to bid on players in an open market.



Thuney is a guard that was forced into playing LT for the Chiefs due to injury. Chicago will most likely return him to his natural position. He probably got more than he's worth due to his age (33), but he's making less than both Banks and Jenkins.

Thuney will be bull rushed all day long as a guard just like he was at LT in the SB. If he'd of been beaten mostly around the edge rather than the bull rushes, I'd say he would hold up at guard.

Defensive coordinators are going to use the SB tape against him. The Eagles probably noticed that weakness when he played guard and used it to their advantage in the SB. He's getting paid less than Banks and Jenkins because I doubt they have as bad of a weakness against the bull rush which was made plain to see in the SB.

 

[mradtke66]

Thuney will be bull rushed all day long as a guard just like he was at LT in the SB. If he'd of been beaten mostly around the edge rather than the bull rushes, I'd say he would hold up at guard.

Defensive coordinators are going to use the SB tape against him. The Eagles probably noticed that weakness when he played guard and used it to their advantage in the SB. He's getting paid less than Banks and Jenkins because I doubt they have as bad of a weakness against the bull rush which was made plain to see in the SB.

It's not quite that simple. You are more susceptible to being bull rushed on the edge due to also needing to defend the edge. The pass sets a guard takes vs. a tackle are different. (Of course my answer is also not quite that simple.) Having a good LG kickout to LT and fail isn't that surprising. Remember what happened the last time we needed Jenkins to do it?

Thuney has been a good guard for a long time. While his per year average is lower than Banks and Jenkins, he received significantly more guaranteed money when he signed his last contract back in 2021. He played under the franchise tag in 2020 for the Pats. If he was weak against the bull rush in general, it would have been discovered before now.

 

[Sanguine camper]

I would say it looks like Thuney's age may be working against him. A lot of guards lack the quick feet and reach to play tackle and are susceptible to a lot of different pass rush moves. In the tigher confines of the interior line, the speed rush takes on less importance than the bull rush or stunts. We'll see, but he was pushed around in the SB. That doesn't bode well for a tackle or guard.

 

[OldSchool101]

Interesting on Thuney.

I’ll just offer that imo one of the key benefits to all this talk about being young as related to FA. In 2025 we are also young on contracts. Meaning we have a plethora starters still playing on their rookie contracts. While it can be argued that’s about to change, it’s only going to change into middle of the league area due to the shear number of selections we’ve gotten each draft. We’re adding like 10 players per draft and we’ve had a good mix of Day2 volume.

What that = concerning FA is what you guys already know, but maybe a few of us are undervaluing that advantage. We stay fiscally sound while we really retained 80% of our Roster and really 90% + of our impact roster.

We are essentially the same team, less an above average Box Defender in losing E Wilson.

 

[Heyjoe4]

I'd say most (all?) teams overpay in free agency. If only because this is one of the few times that all 32 teams get to bid on players in an open market.



Thuney is a guard that was forced into playing LT for the Chiefs due to injury. Chicago will most likely return him to his natural position. He probably got more than he's worth due to his age (33), but he's making less than both Banks and Jenkins.

Yeah the law of supply and demand is ever-present in FA. Most guys get paid too much. When I read that McKinney was getting, I think, a $17 mil AAV contract that looked high by $3 or $4 mil. But hey, the guy lived up to his contract and then some. Same for Jacobs.

This was just not a good year for Gluten to chase WRs and Edge guys. Sometimes the best course of action is to stand pat.

 

[OldSchool101]

of our FA losses. IMO we matched Stokes and Raised the hand with Dobbs. Gutey is very good at studying impending FA fits. Like 80% hit rate.

We lost Myers but gained Jenkins. I think few would argue that’s not an increase at OC. Yet we did it very likely with little to no decrease in pass protection and very likely a better Run grader. A bigger body who has earned his RD2 draft grade (Banks)

The only perceivable players we lost were Ballentine (ST) Rochelle and Wilson at LB. Yet we’re not done yet. We always sign a couple lower end deals after dust settles or steal a player off someone’s PS or at final cuts

 

[Heyjoe4]

of our FA losses. IMO we matched Stokes and Raised the hand with Dobbs. Gutey is very good at studying impending FA fits. Like 80% hit rate.

We lost Myers but gained Jenkins. I think few would argue that’s not an increase at OC. Yet we did it very likely with little to no decrease in pass protection and very likely a better Run grader. A bigger body who has earned his RD2 draft grade (Banks)

I think Jenkins will excel at C. I like that move and I like the addition of Banks. If Morgan can live up to his 1st round status, the OL will be I good shape. As always, depth is needed. At least the starting group looks solid.

 

[OldSchool101]

I think Jenkins will excel at C. I like that move and I like the addition of Banks. If Morgan can live up to his 1st round status, the OL will be I good shape. As always, depth is needed. At least the starting group looks solid.

Yeah and that’s something else I didn’t mention.
We get our Day 1 and Day 2 2024 selections returning. OL RB

we need to key at WR, LB and iDL. Yet we’re have the rest of FA, the Draft and cutdowns. Lots of time to get better, but time is $$ and waiting is prudent.

 

[Heyjoe4]

Yeah and that’s something else I didn’t mention.
We get our Day 1 and Day 2 2024 selections returning. OL RB

Yeah I forgot about Lloyd. He should be ready to return and along with Jacobs and Brooks (I think Brooks is better than Wilson), the Packers have a very good RB group.

 

[OldSchool101]

Yeah I forgot about Lloyd. He should be ready to return and along with Jacobs and Brooks (I think Brooks is better than Wilson), the Packers have a very good RB group.

I just gave this sneaking suspicion that Lloyd is going to play really well. Like a top 50. I was proud of Emmanuel he played really good.

FA is all about filling losses and hopefully realizing some improvement. Draft is a crap shoot past that Top 75 area imo. Throw enough dart in day 3 and might get 1 of 2 that score. Even then it’s mostly that RD 4-5 area. Doubs Tom Wicks Aaron Jones etc.

 

[OldSchool101]

I think we need to security blanket through FA at 2-3 of
WR
LB
DT
or maybe TE
with lower $ signings (under $5mil yearly)
Then use our Top 5 Rounds in 2-3 of those areas to overlap with a young, inspiring player. Might get lucky with a young Kenny Clark type

As FA winds down, it’s shaping up to be very possible that GB selects at WR and early.