2023 Tyni's Prospect Thread

[tynimiller]

Spotrac has FA "Market Value" calculations... and they're shockingly low, IMHO. Jenkins' MV is $7.147Mil/yr and Nijman's is $3.3Mil/yr. For those prices I'd lock-up BOTH on 4 or 5 yr. deals which put them in early 30's when time for next contract.

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Tracking the status and signings of all NFL free agents.

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Eh those are ignorantly low on Nijman and conseravtive on Jenkins...look at their calculations and whom the players were they compared them to and it makes sense:

Yosh's
-The ages of the guys they used is significantly older than Yosh: 30yrs, 28yrs, 31 (will be 32 by next season), and 30 (will be nearly 31 by next)
-Only Fant and Hurst really had starting experience recently (2021/2020) before the contracts arguably more impressive than Yosh. Example of starts in 2020 and 2021 below of the four and than Yosh:
Hurst - 20, Eluemunor 11, Wells 6, Fant 29 and Yosh 8

Fant is the best comp because heading into a 2023 contract Yosh will have started over 20+ games for GB in 2021, 2022...and have done so WELL similar to Fant. Fant was older than Yosh is however by 3+ years at time of contract. I strongly guess Yosh will get either a one year $4M/$5M deal with plenty of years ahead for a 3 or 4 term deal if he continued to produce excellent starts....but I also sense a team seeing a starting RT worst case with him is going to offer a deal similar to Fant's possibly which was $27M/3yr essentially. Which $9M a year is around the 25th-30th for yearly average of tackle contracts presently....so I'd say Yosh and his agent will want between $7M-$10M a year on a multi or maybe $5M on single year.

Jenkins - spotrac was ignorant to include Eluemunor in his calculations as well IMO.
-The guys they compared Jenkins to only one of them has had as many TOTAL career starts as Jenkins had his first two seasons in GB...Jenkins will have 53 or so starts once season ends over four years, some of that at Tackle position (5RT, 8LT, 5C and rest at guard). Karras the only comp with more starts took till his fourth season to get more than two though, is older and a CENTER and still pulled $18M for three years. That is beneath the bottom shelf of what Jenkins will get or should. There one comp Joseph Noteboom barely had any starts leading into his contract and 2022. BUT he was their starting LT (Rams) this year until his IR placement due to injury. That cat with barely any starting time pulled $13M/yr on a $40M/3yr deal.
NOW GB no doubt wants to pay him like a guard, which $7M a year would be roughly just Top 20 salary presently...he is a top 5 or top 10 guard which would take $9M/yr MINIMUM and really $10-$12M/yr.

 

[Heyjoe4]

That's a pretty good breakdown of the OL position Ty. I wish GB could hang onto Yosh. They'll certainly find a way to pay Jenkins. But with Bakhtiari's status up in the air, and likely to remain there, Gluten does need to make OL one of his top priorities. It would be ideal to restructure Bakh's deal to better reflect his reality.

I still like taking a production player in round 1 - my personal favorite is Mayer - and then as you say, draft an OT or even a G sometime in rounds 2 or 3, along with a S. The Packers have coached OLinemen well. Now Newman, Runyan, or Tom could break out - probably Runyan. So maybe the best route is a FA like Kelly, as you mention. Bottom line - can't have too many good to decent OLinemen. Ask Tom Brady, or Rodgers for that matter!

Spotrac has FA "Market Value" calculations... and they're shockingly low, IMHO. Jenkins' MV is $7.147Mil/yr and Nijman's is $3.3Mil/yr. For those prices I'd lock-up BOTH on 4 or 5 yr. deals which put them in early 30's when time for next contract.

2025 NFL Free Agents

Tracking the status and signings of all NFL free agents.

www.spotrac.com

Thanks Pk. I don’t think they get Jenkins for less than $10 mil, but not much more either. I also expect Yosh to get $5 to $7 mil. That’s tight and then they need the draft for an OT.

I like Ty’s scenario. Get some production early, a possible replacement for Amos and an OT just outside round 3 at 110.

 

[OldSchool101]

Trade out of say 14th to the 19th picking Buccs...get in return their 19th, 150th and a Day 3 in 2024 for our #14 and a later Day 3 in 2024.

Any team wanting to move up to a 14 overall from 19 better be fully prepared to give up their
2023 #19, #83, #150 PLUS a later Day 3 area.

Either that or tell them thanks but no thanks, Atlanta and Carolina are beating your phones up wanting to trade ahead of #19 a second time combining Day 2 picks.

So go ahead and pick who you want at #83?

Love the Mayer pick at #19 though. I think that’s about where he’s gone with a good draft exchange value.

 

[tynimiller]

Any team wanting to move up to a 14 overall from 19 better be fully prepared to give up their
2023 #19, #83, #150 PLUS a later Day 3 area.

Either that or tell them thanks but no thanks, Atlanta and Carolina are beating your phones up wanting to trade ahead of #19 a second time combining Day 2 picks.

So go ahead and pick who you want at #83?

Love the Mayer pick at #19 though. I think that’s about where he’s gone with a good draft exchange value.

Disagree to an extent you expect too much, I gave up for arguably too little...it was merely a quick scenario.

Mayer is a Top 5 prospect for me Day 1 if that makes sense. To me his major elevating factor is he is very high floor and is game ready now for his position tomorrow. That is a rare for me to truly believe that is a guarantee for many draft picks truly. Many guys are gifted enough to come in and serve as a starter but for me to think they'll put up starter level contribution and play out the gate is rare...Quay is an example, I felt we'd have growing pains but he would start and by end of the year a lot of the growing pains will have subsided and the game would be slowing...Mayer will get better but he can be a 5 target, 4 catch, 45 yard type TE game 1 out the gate and block at a solid level out the gate.

Personally his positional value is the ONLY reason he falls out of the top 10 on draft day as far as actual picks...like Kyle Hamilton who I had as a clear Top 5 but expected him to fall out of 10 possibly only because of his position. Mayer there when we pick it would be a gamble from the 10th pick on to trade back and hope he is still there.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

I've been looking at TE Sam Laporta out of Iowa and like what I see. Iowa has somewhat become "The TE U", producing 3 pretty good TE's since 2016 in George Kittle, Noah Fant and T.J. Hockenson. Laporta's stock won't be super high and might be a guy you look for in the 3rd or 4th round. He needs work on his blocking, but has a very high football IQ, sure handed and has an excellent route tree. His numbers are not all that flashy, but pretty good when you consider he was playing on a pretty terrible offense.

 

[Heyjoe4]

Disagree to an extent you expect too much, I gave up for arguably too little...it was merely a quick scenario.

Mayer is a Top 5 prospect for me Day 1 if that makes sense. To me his major elevating factor is he is very high floor and is game ready now for his position tomorrow. That is a rare for me to truly believe that is a guarantee for many draft picks truly. Many guys are gifted enough to come in and serve as a starter but for me to think they'll put up starter level contribution and play out the gate is rare...Quay is an example, I felt we'd have growing pains but he would start and by end of the year a lot of the growing pains will have subsided and the game would be slowing...Mayer will get better but he can be a 5 target, 4 catch, 45 yard type TE game 1 out the gate and block at a solid level out the gate.

Personally his positional value is the ONLY reason he falls out of the top 10 on draft day as far as actual picks...like Kyle Hamilton who I had as a clear Top 5 but expected him to fall out of 10 possibly only because of his position. Mayer there when we pick it would be a gamble from the 10th pick on to trade back and hope he is still there.

I agree with you on Mayer. I’ve watched him play superbly on a less than superb ND team. And he is ready to play. It’s weird that WRs almost always get picked higher than starter-quality TEs. Probably has to do with the number of touches being higher for a TE. And lately, we’ve seen some starting quality WRs - Jefferson, Chase, maybe Higgins.

But the Packers drafted well at WR. A starting TE would fit in well.

 

[tynimiller]

I've been looking at TE Sam Laporta out of Iowa and like what I see. Iowa has somewhat become "The TE U", producing 3 pretty good TE's since 2016 in George Kittle, Noah Fant and T.J. Hockenson. Laporta's stock won't be super high and might be a guy you look for in the 3rd or 4th round. He needs work on his blocking, but has a very high football IQ, sure handed and has an excellent route tree. His numbers are not all that flashy, but pretty good when you consider he was playing on a pretty terrible offense.

So, everyone knows I've hitched my main wagon to Mayer BUT you always have to do research and know where you're going if that doesn't work.

There is a lot to like about many of the TEs this draft. Sam is a guy I do like but I'm in that 4th round or so level and is in my start of the my 3rd tier of TEs.

My "Tiers" I guess you could say are:

Tier 1
Michael Mayer


Dalton Kincaid and Darnell Washington (I see them both as Tier 1 but well behind Mayer hence the space...and these two are QUITE different types to each other too).

Tier 2
Tucker Kraft
Luke Musgrave
Cameron Latu

Tier 3
Luke Schoonmaker
Payne Durham
Cade Stover

Josh Whyle


*there are others I've yet to iron out if a Tier 4 or could be 3...guys like Will Mallory, Benjamin Yurosek, Zack Kuntz, Brady Russell, Isaac Rex and others.

 

[OldSchool101]

I like that Darnell Washington guy. He’s a big, physical target with good hands. He blocks well. He can catch the ball and he’s just athletic enough to break a tackle or run through you (his choice )
I really see him as successor to Marcedes and similar to Finley.

A Junior (yeah right!) 6’7” 270lb and a 4.7 X 40 he’s just quick enough to punish you. I could see him in that 500-750 yard 5TD production area pretty quickly. He’s very imposing and justifiably so. He’s a Road clearing TE and it’s very apparent in film he’s a strong 270lb.

Although I think he’ll be gone by late Round 2 to early Round 3 (not ideal for us unless we take him mid 2nd Round (slight reach) If we can make a move up or down to get him I’d be happy around that area. I wanted Jelani Woods last draft, I like Washington better and he would erase any desire for Last years J Woods.

 

[Heyjoe4]

I like that Darnell Washington guy. He’s a big, physical target with good hands. He blocks well. He can catch the ball and he’s just athletic enough to break a tackle or run through you (his choice )
I really see him as successor to Marcedes and similar to Finley.

At 6’7” 270lb and a 4.7 X 40 he’s just quick enough to punish you. I could see him in that 500-750 yard 5TD production area pretty quickly. He’s very imposing and justifiably so. He’s a Road clearing TE and it’s very apparent in film he’s strong for 270lb.

Although I think he’ll be gone by late Round 2 to early Round 3 (not ideal for us) If we can make a move up or down to get him I’d be happy around that area. I wanted Jelani Woods last draft, I like Washington better and he would erase any desire for Last years J Woods.

He reminds me a little too much of Richard Rodgers, a guy who will block and catch but not stretch the seam or get many YACs. But if he's that quick, it would be hard to pass on him depending on what happens with Mayer.

 

[tynimiller]

He reminds me a little too much of Richard Rodgers, a guy who will block and catch but not stretch the seam or get many YACs. But if he's that quick, it would be hard to pass on him depending on what happens with Mayer.

Far more athletic than Rodgers. Far more. Watch just one game film of him.

 

[OldSchool101]

Far more athletic than Rodgers. Far more. Watch just one game film of him.

Yes. He’s not a short area burst (lacks some explosiveness) but once he gets up to speed? he’s pretty quick for a taller Receiver and surprisingly fluid. He’ll catch a ball in full 4.7 stride and it looks seamless. He’s a poor man’s Gronk which is fine. I suspect he’ll top out around 1,000/10TD in his best season, but with the right QB in that 700/7TD area regularly wouldn’t surprise me (once up to speed).
He physically imposing to a 6’ X195Lb DB and not a guy you want to take on with a full head of steam in the open (as a blocker or receiver)

 

[Pkrjones]

Darnell Washington, at 6'-7", 270 & a former basketball player, is a 1st down & red zone menace. A guy that size doesn't need a ton of yac, he's there to block & run 10-12 patterns per game. Massive target with soft hands. Trade our usually-wasted 3rd rounder & a late rounder to move into late 2nd & grab him.

 

[Heyjoe4]

Far more athletic than Rodgers. Far more. Watch just one game film of him.

I'll take your word for it Ty. Thx.

 

[Heyjoe4]

Yes. He’s not a short area burst (lacks some explosiveness) but once he gets up to speed? he’s pretty quick for a taller Receiver and surprisingly fluid. He’ll catch a ball in full 4.7 stride and it looks seamless. He’s a poor man’s Gronk which is fine. I suspect he’ll top out around 1,000/10TD in his best season, but with the right QB in that 700/7TD area regularly wouldn’t surprise me (once up to speed).
He physically imposing to a 6’ X195Lb DB and not a guy you want to take on with a full head of steam in the open (as a blocker or receiver)

I think any GB fan would gladly take a TE who could put up 700 yards and 7 TD/season.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

Depending on what early and or in free agency means to you I still believe it is a true need. Doubtful we hang on to Jenkins and Yosh. Yosh has proven now a second year fully capable of starting for most teams in the NFL at RT - in 635 snaps this season he has given 1 sack, 21 pressures for an efficiency according to PFF of 96.9. He is pacing to have a better graded season by nearly all metrics when compared to his 2021 season as well.

Agreed, I forgot about Nijman being a free agent as well. If the Packers don't re-sign him they might end up having a huge need to upgrade at tackle.

But with Bakhtiari's status up in the air, and likely to remain there, Gluten does need to make OL one of his top priorities. It would be ideal to restructure Bakh's deal to better reflect his reality.

Bakhtiari missing time because of appendectomy is a non-issue moving forward. I would like to see his contract being restructured as well though.

Spotrac has FA "Market Value" calculations... and they're shockingly low, IMHO. Jenkins' MV is $7.147Mil/yr and Nijman's is $3.3Mil/yr. For those prices I'd lock-up BOTH on 4 or 5 yr. deals which put them in early 30's when time for next contract.

2025 NFL Free Agents

Tracking the status and signings of all NFL free agents.

www.spotrac.com

That's ridiculous. Unfortunately both of them will sign for significantly more money.

Thanks Pk. I don’t think they get Jenkins for less than $10 mil, but not much more either.

I expect Jenkins to receive significantly more than $10 million a season.

 

[Mondio]

I see both Yosh and Jenkins getting some big contracts, i wonder how they came up with 7 and 3 mil averages respectively for those 2? The real numbers will likely be double or more of their projection IMO

 

[tynimiller]

I see both Yosh and Jenkins getting some big contracts, i wonder how they came up with 7 and 3 mil averages respectively for those 2? The real numbers will likely be double or more of their projection IMO

I broke down why they failed at the estimate.

 

[tynimiller]

I want to go on record for a few WRs outside the first round that I think we (fans) really need to be cognizant of on Day 2 and Day 3 of the draft which I feel could really push the firepower of this team in the future forward:

Trey Palmer WR Nebraska

Trey is a LSU transfer that went to Nebraska for change of scenery and a chance at better snap chances...boy did that turn out to be a good call. He more than doubled is receptions from 30 to 71, his yards went from 344 to 1,043, TDs rose from 3 to 9 and upped his YPC from 11.5 to an impressive 14.7. Trey has impressive blend of size (6'1' 190lbs) and speed (State track champion in 100 and 200m)...there is a lot to like. The majority of his wins came while in this slot, but his physical skillset leads one to believe he can succeed lined up anywhere. Quite honestly this is the type of receiver I truly would embrace in that end of 4th or into the 5th round and feel quite confident that worst case you end up with a guy that sees his whole rookie deal through, provides some ST snaps and depth play at WR...but I personally see a WR3 type with maybe occasional WR2 potential type ceiling. Yes there are others I like more, but if you see Odunze, Xavier Hutchinson and a few others names get called I'm quickly checking to see where Palmer is and possibly nabbing him before too many names are called.

Zakhari Franklin WR UTSA

This dude is thin just being honest upfront with one thing which is justifiably a concern...however this cat can produce. A prolific producer with over 2,000 yards / 170+ receptions / 27 TDs in just the last two years...his career at UTSA he produced 261 receptions / 3,349 yards, 12.8 YPC and 37 TDs. Despite his more sleek build, this man has ZERO fear over the middle and is exceptional with his hands - honestly there were times where he uses one when he didn't have to and could have used two. Personally I like him from 5th on....with 5th possibly being high in some opinions.

Ronnie Bell WR Michigan

I like a lot of this guys grit and ability to fight for openings and capitalize on mistakes opponents make quickly. Is he a polished and game breaker...no...but he is very consistent, can win with grit and will do the dirty work our offense would want him to. I have him in that 5th/6th range tops.

 

[Heyjoe4]

I want to go on record for a few WRs outside the first round that I think we (fans) really need to be cognizant of on Day 2 and Day 3 of the draft which I feel could really push the firepower of this team in the future forward:

Trey Palmer WR Nebraska

Trey is a LSU transfer that went to Nebraska for change of scenery and a chance at better snap chances...boy did that turn out to be a good call. He more than doubled is receptions from 30 to 71, his yards went from 344 to 1,043, TDs rose from 3 to 9 and upped his YPC from 11.5 to an impressive 14.7. Trey has impressive blend of size (6'1' 190lbs) and speed (State track champion in 100 and 200m)...there is a lot to like. The majority of his wins came while in this slot, but his physical skillset leads one to believe he can succeed lined up anywhere. Quite honestly this is the type of receiver I truly would embrace in that end of 4th or into the 5th round and feel quite confident that worst case you end up with a guy that sees his whole rookie deal through, provides some ST snaps and depth play at WR...but I personally see a WR3 type with maybe occasional WR2 potential type ceiling. Yes there are others I like more, but if you see Odunze, Xavier Hutchinson and a few others names get called I'm quickly checking to see where Palmer is and possibly nabbing him before too many names are called.

Zakhari Franklin WR UTSA

This dude is thin just being honest upfront with one thing which is justifiably a concern...however this cat can produce. A prolific producer with over 2,000 yards / 170+ receptions / 27 TDs in just the last two years...his career at UTSA he produced 261 receptions / 3,349 yards, 12.8 YPC and 37 TDs. Despite his more sleek build, this man has ZERO fear over the middle and is exceptional with his hands - honestly there were times where he uses one when he didn't have to and could have used two. Personally I like him from 5th on....with 5th possibly being high in some opinions.

Ronnie Bell WR Michigan

I like a lot of this guys grit and ability to fight for openings and capitalize on mistakes opponents make quickly. Is he a polished and game breaker...no...but he is very consistent, can win with grit and will do the dirty work our offense would want him to. I have him in that 5th/6th range tops.

Great work Ty and gives me something to look for other than the names everyone knows for round 1. I like the fact that Palmer and Bell are Big Ten guys, and a pedigree with Michigan means a lot right now.

I worry about guys who are slightly built - I'm guessing Franklin is in the 170 lb range. It's always possible that these guys will grow, especially with professional weight training.

But Palmer sounds like the guy I'd take. As you noted his size allows him to play outside and in the slot, and the stats at Nebraska are wild. He would not get those opportunities at LSU so transferring to another big school team was smart.

Anyway thanks for the early Xmas present. Your analyses are always worth a read.

(I'm still holding out hope that the Packers get Mayer in round 1. I usually don't watch ND games until you mentioned him and saw enough game action to know that guy is ready day 1.)

 

[tynimiller]

Great work Ty and gives me something to look for other than the names everyone knows for round 1. I like the fact that Palmer and Bell are Big Ten guys, and a pedigree with Michigan means a lot right now.

I worry about guys who are slightly built - I'm guessing Franklin is in the 170 lb range. It's always possible that these guys will grow, especially with professional weight training.

But Palmer sounds like the guy I'd take. As you noted his size allows him to play outside and in the slot, and the stats at Nebraska are wild. He would not get those opportunities at LSU so transferring to another big school team was smart.

Anyway thanks for the early Xmas present. Your analyses are always worth a read.

(I'm still holding out hope that the Packers get Mayer in round 1. I usually don't watch ND games until you mentioned him and saw enough game action to know that guy is ready day 1.)

Franklin isn't that slight but is 185lbs at 6'1'.

 

[Heyjoe4]

Franklin isn't that slight but is 185lbs at 6'1'.

Oh that's fine. He'll add weight and the trainers will make sure it's all muscle. And sure-handed receivers are always valuable. Anyway, great work! (And I admit, I'm starting to look ahead to the draft. I know the Packers still have a chance, but it's a Jim Carrey - so you're sayin' there's a chance?!?)

 

[tynimiller]

Alright, with the legit chance Love or Rodgers isn't here for the 2023 season (personally I'd place my confidence in one of them being gone around 65%) quarterback is a position being cognizant of for the draft is a worthwhile endeavor.

Now with that said I strongly believe regardless of who is our QB in 2023 season - there is ZERO chance we decide to draft a first day QB. OL depending what we finagle with Jenkins and Yosh could QUICKLY become a desperate need IMO, Amos is most likely gone and a starting caliber S would be massive and both of our starting TEs are possibly out so a trade back or stay and draft Michael Mayer is logical far more than QB. Shoot I would say the only positions less likely for us to draft a QB Day 1 is a punter or a kicker.

So with that I remove CJ Stroud, Bryce Young, Will Levis and Anthony Richardson from the possibles...now sure could one of these fall to our second round pick, sure...but I still think it is a misstep to draft a QB before Day 3 personally. If you stay Rodgers you essentially know season is over if he cannot play so you sign a cheap back up (keep Danny Etling) and you try to load up and hit contributing rookies like you did in 2022...if you roll Love that is perhaps even more crucial because he isn't a HOF QB and the more talent and help you can give the better chance of success he has.

Here are three of my "guys" I like as of now at the QB position for the 2023 draft:

Clayton Tune QB Houston 6'3 220lbs

I'll be honest I truly think Tune has the moxy, grit and clutch ability to be the QB outside the top tier guys that we all might look back on in a few years and be wondering how he went Day 3. Now this could take time to happen depending where he ends up, but there is a lot to like out of Tune. It was his third year when he took over full responsibility of the Cougars offense and has never looked back. His last three years have shown progress across the board as a player:

2020 - (only 8 games) 170 for 285 (59.6%) / 15 TDs / 10 INTs Rating of 130.4...chipping in 253 yards on the ground with 5 TDs as well.
2021 - (14 games) 287 for 420 (68.3%) / 30 TDs / 10 INTs Rating of 158.0...chipping in 154 yards on the ground with 2 TDs as well.
2022 - (12 games) 316 for 469 (67.4%) / 37 TDs / 10 INT Rating of 158.0...chipping in 489 yards on the ground with 5 TDs as well.

Tune has zero fear of taking hits, getting hit or lowering his shoulder for a yard if you need a yard. He had to produce at a VERY high level this year as Houston had zero defensive ability and essentially Tune and the offense had to put up 30+ points to even have a shot at W for this season....all he did was deliver 7 games of 3 TDs or more through the air and their 77-63 win against SMU Tune was a walking highlight reel putting up 7 TDs through the air and 527 yards along with 111 yards on the ground and a TD.

The only knock on Tune is the only reason he doesn't go Day 2 IMO and that is his deep ball needs growth.

Jake Haener QB Fresno State 6'1' 195lbs

Haener is a touch shorter and a little less of an athlete than the aforementioned Tune...but this cat's arm, arm anticipation and pre-snap reading is more there than Tune illustrates. This QB produced a 4,000+ yard passing year just in 2021 (4,096yds / 33 TDs / 9 INTs / 67.1%) and followed up with a solid campaign with three less games this season (2,896yds / 20 TDs / 3 INTs / 72.0%).

I think what I love best about Haener is one play you'll see him launch a bullet on a ten yard crosser to his receiver that leaves his hand before the WR break and is on him immediately off break...then the next play he'll do a far curl route with enough zip to hit the WR before the DB in soft coverage can get there...then the next play he'll high arch drop a touch ball for a 40 yarder. He can make all the throws, it's all going to be about his progression and absorption of the next level...sitting behind a starter and learning could lead this young man to have a Jimmy G type story eventually deserving a starting job.



Jaren Hall QB BYU 6'1' 205lbs

Hall is the only QB I'm going to list that I feel is worth possibly picking even for us in the third round....shoot that round is cursed right now so might as well gamble on a QB that isn't playing till 2024 at the absolute earliest. Hall is a multi-faceted QB that can hurt teams through the air and the ground a TON. Putting up 6,174 passing yards / with 65.2% completion rate and 52 TDs / 11 INTs just the last two seasons Hall has a lot to offer...and has averaged 4.5 yards per carry the last two seasons providing 653 yards and 6 TDs in that same span. *There is a chance Hall doesn't declare...he's right at that cusp of betting on himself and going back...but with more doing this it seems this year is there congestion forming at the position next year? (Bo Nix is one that comes to mind choosing to go back).

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

Alright, with the legit chance Love or Rodgers isn't here for the 2023 season (personally I'd place my confidence in one of them being gone around 65%) quarterback is a position being cognizant of for the draft is a worthwhile endeavor.

Good analysis.

I have been thinking about the Love situation a lot lately. With the prospect of him getting many meaningful snaps in 2022 dwindling with every Packer win, his outlook changes IMO. I think Love is back in GB in 2023, no matter what Rodgers does. He is still going to be a questionable commodity and presents the most value to the Packers as a backup/starter. The Packers would be crazy to trade him away, unless what they got in return was something even more crazy. If they simply let him walk in 2024 as a FA, they would get credit towards a possible 2025 compensatory pick. If they decide to resign him for 2024, his cost is probably a series of wait and see contracts.

Love may want to get a shot at a starting job, but where else is he better prepared than in Green Bay to do so? He may have to wait a year or two longer than he wanted to, but I think he may choose that over going to another team and stepping into a whole new offense and locker room.

 

[tynimiller]

Good analysis.

I have been thinking about the Love situation a lot lately. With the prospect of him getting many meaningful snaps in 2022 dwindling with every Packer win, his outlook changes IMO. I think Love is back in GB in 2023, no matter what Rodgers does. He is still going to be a questionable commodity and presents the most value to the Packers as a backup/starter. The Packers would be crazy to trade him away, unless what they got in return was something even more crazy. If they simply let him walk in 2024 as a FA, they would credit towards a 2025 compensatory pick. If they decide to resign him for 2024, his cost is probably a series of wait and see contracts.

Love may want to get a shot at a starting job, but where else is he better prepared than in Green Bay to do so? He may have to wait a year or two longer than he wanted to, but I think he may choose that over going to another team and stepping into a whole new offense and locker room.

However, what everyone is forgetting is the structure of Rodgers' contract is so unique in that walking away from it after the 2023 season actually is massively more expensive than it would be after this year.

IF Green Bay is going to allow or keep Rodgers as QB in 2023 season, they're fiscally at least throwing their entire basket in Rodgers' lap. At that point it would be INSANELY ignorant for the franchise to pick up Love's 5th year option which would hit in 2024 (the same year a MASSIVE cap hit would occur should Rodgers be done after the 2023 year)...but if we don't pick it up and Love walks after the 2023 season as a FA...the compensatory pick is going to be less IMO than what we could get now for trading him.

One team that I think would be very much interested which could be sneaky good for all considered is Seattle...low cost in 2023 hit, Geno Smith find a resurrection or is this just a fluke...They have the draft capital that honestly sending us two fourths in exchange for Love impacts their draft nearly not at all...worst case they get a young/ascending QB for a back up to Geno....best case they just spent next to nothing on a guy that could be a franchise QB in the future.

I think ANY package in a trade for love is TOP 3rd rounder...but most likely is a collection of Day 3s with one or two being conditional. I'd much rather take that now IF we are in the Rodgers camp for one more year and I see it as a MASSIVE failing fiscally and personnel if we yet again try to placate both to the 'Rodgers now' mentality and the 'Love future' mentality another year....it has massive fallout issues IMO in the future years.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

Yeah, I just don't see the Packers picking up Love's 5th year, unless Rodgers retires or is traded, before the deadline to do so (beginning of May).

I also don't see the Packers trading a potential starting QB, just to pick up a bit more than they would in a compensatory pick. Doing that forces them to first find a backup for Rodgers or a starter if Rodgers is gone. More importantly, it prematurely closes the door on Love being Rodgers potential heir to the job. Gute has to see his 2020 pick to the finish or the grumblings about it will be even louder than they already are. Imagine the Packers trade Love away and suddenly he is a top 10 QB, for another NFC team. Not worth risking for a day 3 pick IMO.