2020 Training Camp Thread

[Sunshinepacker]

So, they've already concluded that the 3rd. round pick is bust at H-back?

Sarcasm works best when the head coach of the team doesn't explicitly state the thing you're trying to mock.


https://packerswire.usatoday.com/20...xcited-about-third-round-pick-josiah-deguara/

And LaFleur confirmed the Packers envision a similar role for Deguara.

“We will try and emulate some that stuff in terms of how the 49ers use (Kyle) Juszczyk,” LaFleur said.

 

[HardRightEdge]

Sarcasm works best when the head coach of the team doesn't explicitly state the thing you're trying to mock.


https://packerswire.usatoday.com/20...xcited-about-third-round-pick-josiah-deguara/

And LaFleur confirmed the Packers envision a similar role for Deguara.

“We will try and emulate some that stuff in terms of how the 49ers use (Kyle) Juszczyk,” LaFleur said.

The operative word is "some". We already knew he'd be playing some H-back in the backfield, blocking and catching from a fullback position. What's the rest of the "H"? I indicated a possibility. That possibility would go some ways in justifying a 3rd. round pick.

You know, Deguara's Combine athletic measurables were actually slightly better than Sternberger's while showing better upper body strength with the lifts and better blocking chops in the tape. He's a couple inches shorter but had 4" better in vertical which makes him a roughly equivalent target.

http://draftscout.com/dsprofile.php?PlayerId=1028272&DraftYear=2020

http://draftscout.com/dsprofile.php?PlayerId=1003898&DraftYear=2019

We'll see. Again, you do not spend a 3rd. round pick on a fullback. At least you better not.

 

[tynimiller]

That may be true, but we can't come away with just 1 or 2 players every draft class. We need to hit on at least a third of each; and by a third, I mean they make it remain in Lambeau for 4-6 years (depending on draft position).

Who from that class will still be on the roster in 2021? Right now, anyone other than Jaire Alexander and possibly JK Scott is a maybe. That's not gonna cut it from 11 picks.

In all honesty if you can 100% nail 1 to 2 surefire guys depending on their degree of output per draft you're doing quite well. Add a guy or two that play substantial back up roles I think that'd be quite a good draft record.

The following below are Gutes 'top shelf' picks (1st and 2nd rounders) since taking over. Let's not forget that the 2018 draft also saw us add a future 1st...worth weighting review thoughts on that year as well.

Clearly many could argue WAY too early to declare any of them knockout HOME RUNS.....but I will go ahead and say Jaire and Elgton are surely deserving of being graded a triple

The future will hold on whether Jackson ever wakes up....Savage continues to grow to what many feel he will be and Gary now will have a massive chance. Clearly Love and Dillon playing being All Pro level guys could take some time to show what we have come away with.

2020 - Jordan Love & AJ Dillon - both are promising in entirely different ways, one an offensive weapon for the present, the other the future. No verdict can be cast logically either way before neither step foot on a field.

2019 - Rashan Gary, Darnell Savage and Elgton Jenkins - This class has a freak athlete the verdict is still out on learning behind two massive FA success stories (Gary). A safety that quickly proved to be more than capable of being the future back there with Amos and I expect we see more and more of (Savage). Then the CREAM of this draft so far, a Guard that wasn't just one of the best rookies in the NFL, but one of the best guards period last year as a rookie.

2018 - Jaire Alexander and Josh Jackson - One is proving to already be considered one of the best at his position under 25 (Jaire) while the other is still way too young to say bust, but that door option is unlocked and just as likely as not.

 

[Sunshinepacker]

The operative word is "some". We already knew he'd be playing some H-back in the backfield, blocking and catching from a fullback position. What's the rest of the "H"? I indicated a possibility. That possibility would go some ways in justifying a 3rd. round pick.

You know, Deguara's Combine athletic measurables were actually slightly better than Sternberger's while showing better upper body strength with the lifts and better blocking chops in the tape. He's a couple inches shorter but had 4" better in vertical which makes him a roughly equivalent target.

http://draftscout.com/dsprofile.php?PlayerId=1028272&DraftYear=2020

http://draftscout.com/dsprofile.php?PlayerId=1003898&DraftYear=2019

We'll see. Again, you do not spend a 3rd. round pick on a fullback. At least you better not.

Juszczyk is listed as FB, and plays there fairly often, but he's not ONLY a FB. I could see Deguara being something similar; he doesn't appear to be athletic enough to be an elite TE but he could surprise defenses by motioning from the backfield and catching some passes. I don't personally think that's worth a third-round pick but what do I know; MLF is the guy who only emphasized Jones' role in the passing game when Adams was hurt. Look, the Packers first three rounds in this recent draft were pretty awful and picking back-to-back backfield players is just another example of the awfulness. Maybe Deguara turns into Delanie Walker, but history isn't very kind to average athletes who are slightly undersized at TE.

 

[HardRightEdge]

Juszczyk is listed as FB, and plays there fairly often, but he's not ONLY a FB. I could see Deguara being something similar; he doesn't appear to be athletic enough to be an elite TE but he could surprise defenses by motioning from the backfield and catching some passes. I don't personally think that's worth a third-round pick but what do I know; MLF is the guy who only emphasized Jones' role in the passing game when Adams was hurt. Look, the Packers first three rounds in this recent draft were pretty awful and picking back-to-back backfield players is just another example of the awfulness. Maybe Deguara turns into Delanie Walker, but history isn't very kind to average athletes who are slightly undersized at TE.

A third round pick is justfied by snap counts and the quality of those snaps regardless of position. A couple hundred at fullback doesn't quite qualify. Work in quality snaps in-line blocking with some catching, get up to 60-70% worth of decent snaps, and that would be decent value for the pick. That assumes Deguara is any d*mn good, which remains to be seen.

 

[Favre>Rodgers259]

In all honesty if you can 100% nail 1 to 2 surefire guys depending on their degree of output per draft you're doing quite well. Add a guy or two that play substantial back up roles I think that'd be quite a good draft record.

The following below are Gutes 'top shelf' picks (1st and 2nd rounders) since taking over. Let's not forget that the 2018 draft also saw us add a future 1st...worth weighting review thoughts on that year as well.

Clearly many could argue WAY too early to declare any of them knockout HOME RUNS.....but I will go ahead and say Jaire and Elgton are surely deserving of being graded a triple

The future will hold on whether Jackson ever wakes up....Savage continues to grow to what many feel he will be and Gary now will have a massive chance. Clearly Love and Dillon playing being All Pro level guys could take some time to show what we have come away with.

I'm not really worried about the "top shelf"....those are the guys you are supposed to "hit" on (have to really)...my issue is that we get almost as many picks on Day 3 as some teams' entire draft class, and we struggle to get 1 or 2 guys that seem to stick through their entire rookie contracts and earn a re-signing.

Yes the 1st Rounders come with the hype; the 2nd Rounders can too because some of them are players with a 1st Round Grade....but your Day 3s make or break your roster. Day 3s turn a good team to a great team, and we have to do better in that regard.

My reasoning is that Gute(TT before him) and the scouts as a whole, seem to think they're smarter than they really are. I can't think of a single draft where I wasn't screaming and cursing at the screen when they announced some "out-in-left-field" player for their selection....and as an "Armchair GM" I know and understand that I probably have at best a third of the information that they have at their fingertips. But it completely ****** me off to watch my favorite franchise essentially throw away picks every year.

 

[tynimiller]

I'm not really worried about the "top shelf"....those are the guys you are supposed to "hit" on (have to really)...my issue is that we get almost as many picks on Day 3 as some teams' entire draft class, and we struggle to get 1 or 2 guys that seem to stick through their entire rookie contracts and earn a re-signing.

Yes the 1st Rounders come with the hype; the 2nd Rounders can too because some of them are players with a 1st Round Grade....but your Day 3s make or break your roster. Day 3s turn a good team to a great team, and we have to do better in that regard.

My reasoning is that Gute(TT before him) and the scouts as a whole, seem to think they're smarter than they really are. I can't think of a single draft where I wasn't screaming and cursing at the screen when they announced some "out-in-left-field" player for their selection....and as an "Armchair GM" I know and understand that I probably have at best a third of the information that they have at their fingertips. But it completely ****** me off to watch my favorite franchise essentially throw away picks every year.

I'll be honest this was actually the first 3rd day of the draft I knew every single guy drafted and had them all rated in the rounds or higher they went....Stop, and Kamaal were definitely not my top rated guys in their position but were right there.

Not sure that is a good thing as I don't do this for a living like them...lol we shall see in about 3 years.

 

[gopkrs]

I'm not really worried about the "top shelf"....those are the guys you are supposed to "hit" on (have to really)...my issue is that we get almost as many picks on Day 3 as some teams' entire draft class, and we struggle to get 1 or 2 guys that seem to stick through their entire rookie contracts and earn a re-signing.

Yes the 1st Rounders come with the hype; the 2nd Rounders can too because some of them are players with a 1st Round Grade....but your Day 3s make or break your roster. Day 3s turn a good team to a great team, and we have to do better in that regard.

My reasoning is that Gute(TT before him) and the scouts as a whole, seem to think they're smarter than they really are. I can't think of a single draft where I wasn't screaming and cursing at the screen when they I announced some "out-in-left-field" player for their selection....and as an "Armchair GM" I know and understand that I probably have at best a third of the information that they have at their fingertips. But it completely ****** me off to watch my favorite franchise essentially throw away picks every year.

I don't do the kind of homework you do. But I have been wondering how good our scouts can be. Because we don't seem to do that well at all later in the draft. And I think you are right that good teams do pretty well there.

 

[mradtke66]

...my issue is that we get almost as many picks on Day 3 as some teams' entire draft class, and we struggle to get 1 or 2 guys that seem to stick through their entire rookie contracts and earn a re-signing.

Part of being an NFL team is getting value out of those picks, yes. But even if we only get 2-3 years from a cheap rookie, we did get value from him. Not optimal, but 3 years of having your punt team being solid isn't zero.

But it completely ****** me off to watch my favorite franchise essentially throw away picks every year.

This is a little hyperbole.

RB: Jones and Williams; 5th and 4th round.
WR: Everyone outside of Adams is either a late round or UDFA
TE: 2 3rds, a 1st in Lewis, and an UDFA
OL: Bhak is a 4th, Linsley a 5th, Turner a 3rd, Wagner a 5th


DL: Lowry a 4th, Lancaster an UDFA
LB: KIRKSEY is a 3rd, Burks a 3rd, Z. Smith a 4th

For the most part, that's some pretty good pickups on day 3. Obviously a few FAs in that list, but I was in a hurry to compile it.

 

[Favre>Rodgers259]

This is a little hyperbole.

RB: Jones and Williams; 5th and 4th round.
WR: Everyone outside of Adams is either a late round or UDFA
TE: 2 3rds, a 1st in Lewis, and an UDFA
OL: Bhak is a 4th, Linsley a 5th, Turner a 3rd, Wagner a 5th


DL: Lowry a 4th, Lancaster an UDFA
LB: KIRKSEY is a 3rd, Burks a 3rd, Z. Smith a 4th

For the most part, that's some pretty good pickups on day 3. Obviously a few FAs in that list, but I was in a hurry to compile it.

You misunderstand me, I'm not saying we haven't found guys on Day 3, but we seem to be very inconsistent in doing so.

Turner, Wagner, Kirksey, and Z. Smith don't count because we didn't select them in the Draft(although I'm sure without digging there were certainly opportunities to do so for some).

When I heard Jones(2017) come off the board for us I KNEW he was going to be a solid pick, I just didn't know how good he would be.

Williams(2017) I was a less smitten about, but I knew he wasn't going to be a total bust either.

Lowry(2016) has become exactly what I thought he was, just "ok". He does make plays, but he's not gonna exactly light it up week to week either. But I consider Lowry us "hitting" on a Day 3 pick.

Bakhtiari(2013) I said boom or bust....we see what happened.

With Linsley(2014) I'm a Big Ten homer when it comes to offensive linemen, so long as they come from the principal schools(OSU, UM, Wisc, PSU, Iowa, MSU). With Linsley coming out of Ohio State, I felt he wasn't going to be decent to say the least.



Now I'm assuredly being biased based on my own discernment but I still feel like we have some room for improvement with how we mold the roster on Draft Day.

 

[mradtke66]

You misunderstand me, I'm not saying we haven't found guys on Day 3, but we seem to be very inconsistent in doing so.

I'm struggling to understand what you consider be "more consistent." Are we better than others? Worse?

I see a pretty solid contingent of 3rd day picks on our roster. Could you quantify what you think our success rate is and what you think it should be?

 

[jon]

....and as an "Armchair GM" I know and understand that I probably have at best a third of the information that they have at their fingertips. But it completely ****** me off to watch my favorite franchise essentially throw away picks every year.

Another armchair GM here, and what grinds my gears is the repeated 'commitment to the best player available' when this is clearly not the case. This year, for example, GB picked to fill the needs of MLF's offensive scheme when there were better players still on the board.

Why don't they just say so? IMO, they don't say that because "we're finding scheme players" opens them to easy criticism: the objective is to win not run a particular scheme.

Similarly, they don't pick to fill a gap to win now because if they say "we are trying to win this year" and pick accordingly but don't win this year, they look like they failed.

These guys are people with insecurities like anyone, and want to avoid looking bad. And they are managers who try to influence what people in the organization and its stakeholders think. It is not all (or even mostly?) about measurables.

 

[Sunshinepacker]

Here's what it comes down to; good teams can't afford to have the bad drafts the the Packers had in 2018, 2017, 2016, and 2015. Through those FOUR drafts, the Packers found two sure-fire great players in Clark and Jones, one potentially elite player in Alexander, a punter, and four serviceable players in King, Williams, Martinez, and Montgomery. Out of 36 players drafted over those four drafts, the Packers have found two elite players, one potentially elite player and four serviceable players. That's just not going to cut it for building the depth that teams need in the NFL. The Packers no longer have anyone on the team from the 2015 draft and only two players from the 2016 draft, and only two players from the 2014 draft if you go back another year.

The 2019 draft looks like it will be a better draft with Savage and Jenkins already looking like above-average/elite players. If Sternberger and Keke can become average players at their positions then it will be a very good draft. Personally I'm not including Gary because I don't think he's going to prove to be worth a first round pick but obviously if he shocks the world then the draft will be a massive turnaround.

 

[Favre>Rodgers259]

I'm struggling to understand what you consider be "more consistent." Are we better than others? Worse?

I see a pretty solid contingent of 3rd day picks on our roster. Could you quantify what you think our success rate is and what you think it should be?

@Sunshinepacker has put my point in words that you might understand better. But I'll explain further:

The default amount of draft picks each team gets is 7; 1 pick in each of the 7 rounds based on their standings from the previous year.

Since 2005, the Packers have averaged 6.5 picks on Day 3 of the Draft alone; keeping it simple and assuming the Packers will have 3 more picks from the first 3 rounds, that's 9.5 picks a year.

However, we're just going to focus on Day 3 only, and since 2005, the Packers have had 104 selections. For the purposes of making a legitimate argument we are going to go from the 2017 Draft Class and back, so that's 86 selections, or 6.6 picks per year.

Here's a breakdown of the percentage of Day 3 players who actually make it to their contract year from 2005-2017:

2017 - 28.57%
2016 - 75%
2015 - 0%
2014 - 20%
2013 - 22.22%
2012 - 20%
2011 - 28.57%
2010 - 75%
2009 - 33.33%
2008 - 40%
2007 - 42.86%
2006 - 28.57%
2005 - 25%


Historically it's actually not as bad as I thought; 33.78%, or 29 out of 86 selections. I highlighted 2007 - 2010 because those percentages right there are how you build a Super Bowl caliber roster, and we won it all in 2010.

As an "Armchair GM", I believe we should be hitting on 33% of all our Day 3 picks; and since 2010, we've only achieved that once; back in 2016(also highlighted).

But I'd also like to put an asterisk on the term "hit" as the only criteria being that the player made it to his contract year. There were a handful of players that while they were on the team for 4 years, their contributions were very little at best. A couple players were actually traded in their contract year. Remember that Ted Thompson loved to hold on to his coveted draft selections a little longer than probably most would prefer. But without breaking down every single selection of the last 13 years, let's just say that using my own "Armchair GM" analysis, the historical percentage drops to 25.58%.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

my issue is that we get almost as many picks on Day 3 as some teams' entire draft class, and we struggle to get 1 or 2 guys that seem to stick through their entire rookie contracts and earn a re-signing.

The entire league struggles to find decent players on day three of the draft. I don't believe the Packers have fared worse than the rest of the league in that regard.

Another armchair GM here, and what grinds my gears is the repeated 'commitment to the best player available' when this is clearly not the case. This year, for example, GB picked to fill the needs of MLF's offensive scheme when there were better players still on the board.

The Packers definitely didn't draft for need this year.

 

[Sunshinepacker]

The entire league struggles to find decent players on day three of the draft. I don't believe the Packers have fared worse than the rest of the league in that regard.

The Packers haven't actually done that badly on day three, where they've been REALLY hurt is just how bad they've been recently on day 2. Packers have no impact players from day 2 of the NFL draft in the 2018, 2017, 2016, or 2015. Those picks in the second and third rounds should be solid starters with the occasional great player mixed in. Those rounds, prior to 2015, produced Adams, Lacey, Hayward, Cobb, Neal, Burnett, etc. Recently they've produced Fackrell and Ty Montgomery. The current Packers are woefully short of talent due to poor drafting from 2015-2018 and, unless the 2018/2019 drafts produce at a shockingly high rate, this team is going to be on the decline for the next couple of seasons.

 

[PikeBadger]

The entire league struggles to find decent players on day three of the draft. I don't believe the Packers have fared worse than the rest of the league in that regard.

The Packers definitely didn't draft for need this year.

Agree, in fact I’d argue the opposite. Our W-L percentage over the years lead me to believe that our roster is generally stronger than most teams in the league.


every team needs a future HOF QB in the pipeline.

 

[mradtke66]

Historically it's actually not as bad as I thought

Historically it's actually not as bad as I thought; 33.78%, or 29 out of 86 selections. I highlighted 2007 - 2010 because those percentages right there are how you build a Super Bowl caliber roster, and we won it all in 2010.

As an "Armchair GM", I believe we should be hitting on 33% of all our Day 3 picks; and since 2010, we've only achieved that once; back in 2016(also highlighted).

This analysis lines up more with what I thought, produces another question, and brings up my own thought/hypothesis.

First, thank you for looking at it. Your "Historically it's actually not as bad as I thought" comment is important. Humans are either terrible or terrific at finding patterns, depending on your point of view. Through our own selection biases and other issue, we find all kinds of patterns--including ones that aren't actually there. We're that good at finding patterns.

Other Question: Is our success rate better or worse than other teams? That's obviously quite the research task. If you want to look it up, I won't object, but I certainly don't expect you or anyone else to do it.

Hypthesis: It's not necessarily our day thee picks hurting us, but just that Thompson lost the "it" factor by the end of his tenure. I don't think anyone disagrees that general assessment. The root problem is just we had some baaad drafts there.

 

[PikeBadger]

The analysis I think that would be really interesting is grading out each draft class league-wide (including UDFA’s) to see which classes were strong, average or weak compared to others from the past 20 years. Our numbers, compared to league numbers would be more meaningful and would also take into account guys that were traded, released or not re-signed after contract expiration.

not that I expect anyone to take on such a monumental task but it would provide context.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

The current Packers are woefully short of talent due to poor drafting from 2015-2018 and, unless the 2018/2019 drafts produce at a shockingly high rate, this team is going to be on the decline for the next couple of seasons.

While the Packers currently lack talent at some positions I don't consider the roster to be woefully short of it coming off a season in which they went 13-3 and made it to the NFCCG.

 

[Sunshinepacker]

While the Packers currently lack talent at some positions I don't consider the roster to be woefully short of it coming off a season in which they went 13-3 and made it to the NFCCG.

You're right, I should have said woefully short of talent for where they SHOULD be considering they were 13-3 last year. Relative to other NFCCG teams in recent history (as well as other 13-3 teams) this Packers team has some pretty substantial flaws. The talent gaps are why Gute had to spend so much in free agency on a safety and two OLBs which has constrained the cap and is going to lead to some tough choices going forward.

 

[Favre>Rodgers259]

Historically it's actually not as bad as I thought

This analysis lines up more with what I thought, produces another question, and brings up my own thought/hypothesis.

First, thank you for looking at it. Your "Historically it's actually not as bad as I thought" comment is important. Humans are either terrible or terrific at finding patterns, depending on your point of view. Through our own selection biases and other issue, we find all kinds of patterns--including ones that aren't actually there. We're that good at finding patterns.

Other Question: Is our success rate better or worse than other teams? That's obviously quite the research task. If you want to look it up, I won't object, but I certainly don't expect you or anyone else to do it.

Hypthesis: It's not necessarily our day thee picks hurting us, but just that Thompson lost the "it" factor by the end of his tenure. I don't think anyone disagrees that general assessment. The root problem is just we had some baaad drafts there.

It was not as bad as I thought, but again I put the disclaimer at the bottom, my only criteria was players who actually made it to the last year of their contract. Measuring their production and finding a metric that would apply to them all would be quite the task. But there were very few if any "Micah Hydes and JC Tretters" who we lost purely because we couldn't afford to pay them and departed via Free Agency. But there were probably about 5-7 players who had no business being on this team for 4 years, but that was Thompson's approach.

In about 3 more seasons, Gute will be permanently separated from Thompson and we'll have a better sample size as to how he "GMs". I will say that we already know he isn't as tied to the hip to his selections as much as TT was. I knew Moore was a bust the moment his name popped up on the screen; a year later, gone. I'm pretty steamed at him for selecting Madison; because for him to pretty much say out the gate he wasn't playing football that year screams to me that somebody should have been able to find that out ahead of the Draft. When he finally showed up he was overwhelmed and got hurt; now he's gone too. For Looney it's just a matter of time but I don't see him on the roster Week 1. I have a sinking feeling that 3-4 selections from the 2020 draft are out the door by 2022 as well.

 

[gopkrs]

OK, I'm going to throw this out there w/o doing any homework. Sometimes a player can last through his original contract just because he was there the year before each year. The team maybe has not addressed the position because they think they already drafted someone there. But in reality the player is not very good and is just hiding a mistake by the people that drafted him. Those kind of players affect how good your special teams are and in general your overall team strength.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

You're right, I should have said woefully short of talent for where they SHOULD be considering they were 13-3 last year. Relative to other NFCCG teams in recent history (as well as other 13-3 teams) this Packers team has some pretty substantial flaws. The talent gaps are why Gute had to spend so much in free agency on a safety and two OLBs which has constrained the cap and is going to lead to some tough choices going forward.

I agree that the Packers don't seem to have great overall talent coming off a season in which they finished 13-3.

Other teams spend significantly more money in free agency than Gutekunst did last year to upgrade positions of need though.

 

[bigbubbatd]

The talent question is interesting. I know something like the NFL top 100 isn't scientific but the Packers had 6 guys in the group - bahk, Adams, the Smiths, Jones, Rodgers. Kenny Clark somehow didn't make it which is insane. The average team will have 3 guys on the list. So the Packers have twice that. They also have young talent like Jenkins and Savage who were all rookie performers and guys like Alexander.

They have enough talent everywhere except pass catchers.