2018 Off-season vision for success

[brandon2348]

In House Contracts

1. It might not be a popular move but push Jordy to retirement. He talked about retiring last year and he is 33 yr old and just isnt the player he was. These are tough decisions but they need to be made to build a championship roster.

2018 Cap Savings: 10.3 Million

2. Randall Cobb is the younger of the two so try to extend him to a more cap friendly contract. 2 year 14 million and guarantee most of it would work nicely.

2018 Cap Savings: 5 Mill

Bryan Bulaga: Let him walk. His play has dropped and the guy can't stay healthy. Plus it would probably be around mid-season for a return. He is approaching 30 with two repaired knees. Gotta know when to move on.

Cap Savings: 4.7 Mill

Clay Matthews: Pay out last year of contract. Gonna need him.

Our Free Agents:

Morgan Burnett: Let him walk espescilay if it's gonna be 10 mill which I've seen. The guy can't stay healthy more then three games in a row and he isn't a "game changer". I would rather have Clinton Dix move closer to the box. Anyways.

Richard Rodgrs: sign him to a veteran minimum contract. He still has value in red zone and great pass catcher.

Devon House: Bye Bye

Free Agency. Now we have 40 mill in cap space minus 5 for rookies and were at 35 mill for spending.

Free agent Target/Signing:

Demario Davis LB. He is a team and vocal leader this defense needs and is also an upgrade all the way around. He is from the Pettine tree too. He can play the run and he can cover and he can also rush the passer from his spot. This would be a huge signing.

Expected deal 2 years 10-12 mill

Trent Murphy: This guy can rush the passer and has multiple moves and motor to go with it. He is also good against the run. Knee injury and PED should make him on cheap side.

Expected deal 1 year 6 mill

Jimmie Graham: He is at the end certainly but still has plenty of value. He was a horrible scheme fit for Seahawks and still scored 10 TD's. He would be a great scheme fit for Packers and I could see huge dividends paid here.

Expected deal: 2 year 14 mill

Mo Claiborne: He has had an up and down career for sure but I believe he is trending in the right direction. When healthy he plays well and he can play man to man. He definitely fights ******* every play. Had solid year for Jets last year due to late season injury. I see great value here.

1 year 5 mill.

Draft based on all these Moves. I will only go 3 rounds for now:

1RD. Courtland Sutton WR, adding Graham and Sutton to this Packer off is just what the doctor ordered and gives an immediate shot of freakish talent for A-Rodge. Gets me excited just thinking about it. However, i wouldn't get upset if we ended up with Josh Jasckson at this pick either.

2. Dorance Armstrong OLB. He checks a lot of boxes. He is long and can bend which is important for edge rusher. I just think he doesn't get the hype because he is coming out of Kansas. I could definitely see him helping out with the pass rush rotation week 1.

3. Troy Fumagalli TE. Want to see his combine and could go different here but his film is amazing and was a major playmaker at Wisconsin. People are all over the board on how fast he really is.

3. Frank Ragnow C/G Arkansas. He has some versatility and that's what the Packers like when developing there OL.

Changes in the defense: This is difficult because of what Pettine will run as his bread and butter but I like moving Randall to FS and having him and Kentrell Brice as the two FS's. I like having speed back there. Get Dix and Jones close to LOS.

This masterpiece could have us back in the Super Bowl barring injuries, coaching failures etc etc

 

[GleefulGary]

I like most of it.

Do not want to sign Jimmy Graham. Give me Trey Burton for the same money every day. Jimmy is/was an athletic freak at TE who is losing his athleticism and can't stay healthy. I'm not sure he's a good signing, but that's just me. Claiborne seems fine, I prefer Kyle Fuller but he'll probably cost more. Maybe Bashaud Breeland too? I don't think we want to move Randall to FS. Even if we sign a FA CB, who is our 3rd CB? We can't play Rollins as our NB, Hawkins isn't that good, Pipkins might be ok, and we really have nothing else....at least we know Randall is good at CB. Keep him there. You need 3 good CB's anymore. Sign a safety to replace Burnett, and Brice regressed a little when he was healthy last year. New scheme might help, but I'm not expecting a lot out of him. Otherwise, I don't mind the FA moves. Not sure we'll be able to get Jordy to retire, but who knows at this point. I tend to think he's past his prime and is only ok in the slot. I don't see Cobb taking a discount off his contract, but we'll see.

As for the draft, you know my feelings on Sutton. I love Ragnow as a player, but I really think OT is a bigger need. As you said, Bulaga isn't there anymore and can't stay healthy. I'd try to target a guy like Alex Cappa or Tyrell Crosby, but that might need to be done with our first 3rd round pick, or we might need to trade up into the 2nd to do it. Murphy, imo, isn't very good, and I don't trust Spriggs. Not a huge Fumagalli fan, gimme Mark Andrews or Chris Herndon over him.

 

[brandon2348]

I like most of it.

Do not want to sign Jimmy Graham. Give me Trey Burton for the same money every day. Jimmy is/was an athletic freak at TE who is losing his athleticism and can't stay healthy. I'm not sure he's a good signing, but that's just me. Claiborne seems fine, I prefer Kyle Fuller but he'll probably cost more. Maybe Bashaud Breeland too? I don't think we want to move Randall to FS. Even if we sign a FA CB, who is our 3rd CB? We can't play Rollins as our NB, Hawkins isn't that good, Pipkins might be ok, and we really have nothing else....at least we know Randall is good at CB. Keep him there. You need 3 good CB's anymore. Sign a safety to replace Burnett, and Brice regressed a little when he was healthy last year. New scheme might help, but I'm not expecting a lot out of him. Otherwise, I don't mind the FA moves. Not sure we'll be able to get Jordy to retire, but who knows at this point. I tend to think he's past his prime and is only ok in the slot. I don't see Cobb taking a discount off his contract, but we'll see.

As for the draft, you know my feelings on Sutton. I love Ragnow as a player, but I really think OT is a bigger need. As you said, Bulaga isn't there anymore and can't stay healthy. I'd try to target a guy like Alex Cappa or Tyrell Crosby, but that might need to be done with our first 3rd round pick, or we might need to trade up into the 2nd to do it. Murphy, imo, isn't very good, and I don't trust Spriggs. Not a huge Fumagalli fan, gimme Mark Andrews or Chris Herndon over him.

I'd be fine with Burton too and like him better then Graham but just think Graham might be the better scheme fit. Maybe they can get Armstrong and trade back up for Andrews cause I do have him over Fumagalli. I like what Andrews can do after the catch. It's time to get more aggressive targeting guys and I hope Gute does that. We have the draft capital. I need to see Fumagalli in Combine first.

Breeland would be fine but Fuller might be too much $ and I have no faith in Rollins either.

The two free agents that I have there that would be grand slam signings are Davis and Murphy. Add an edge in draft and a corner and Pettine should have most of the pieces he needs.

Need a faster free safety then Dix.

 

[Dantés]

I don't think Demario Davis would add much, if anything, that Blake Martinez doesn't already bring. Neither are what the Packers need in terms of range, coverage, nor athleticism.

 

[brandon2348]

I don't think Demario Davis would add much, if anything, that Blake Martinez doesn't already bring. Neither are what the Packers need in terms of range, coverage, nor athleticism.

Demario Davis had 130 tackles last year and 5 sacks and was more productive applying pressure then any other off line LB last year. His coverage rating was almost 40 points higher then Martinez and Davis is considered above average in pass coverage. He is a freak athlete and still very fast as noted. He probably isn't 4.4 fast like at combine but probably not far behind based on his 2017 tape. He is still very explosive. Davis is versatile too.

Add that the Packers need a leader that brings major work ethic on that side of the ball and he upgrades us all the way around. He even has ties to Pettine. These are the type of signings that helps get us back to the promise land.

 

[RepStar15]

I will never understand why anyone wants to see Jimmy Graham in green and gold. He will be overpaid to under perform. He belongs on a team where they need a stronger fan base to sell tickets (LA Rams, Cleveland, LA Charger, San Francisco). He’s a big time name, that we do not need. Especially because my boy Troy Fumegelli would be a perfect fit (I will let go of the fact he said he would love to play in Chicago).

 

[brandon2348]

I will never understand why anyone wants to see Jimmy Graham in green and gold. He will be overpaid to under perform. He belongs on a team where they need a stronger fan base to sell tickets (LA Rams, Cleveland, LA Charger, San Francisco). He’s a big time name, that we do not need. Especially because my boy Troy Fumegelli would be a perfect fit (I will let go of the fact he said he would love to play in Chicago).

I like Fumaglli a lot and not a Jimmie Graham fan but if Graham can help us win a Super Bowl then sign me up.

 

[PackerDNA]

Gesiki of Penn St.. Although the way he's been tearing it up at the senior bowl, I doubt he gets out of the 2nd round.

 

[Dantés]

Demario Davis had 130 tackles last year and 5 sacks and was more productive applying pressure then any other off line LB last year. His coverage rating was almost 40 points higher then Martinez and Davis is considered above average in pass coverage. He is a freak athlete and still very fast as noted. He probably isn't 4.4 fast like at combine but probably not far behind based on his 2017 tape. He is still very explosive. Davis is versatile too.

Add that the Packers need a leader that brings major work ethic on that side of the ball and he upgrades us all the way around. He even has ties to Pettine. These are the type of signings that helps get us back to the promise land.

Coverage rating? Like PFF or what are you referencing?

Davis ran a 4.61 at the combine. In 6 NFL seasons, he has 13 PBU's and 1 Interception (Martinez 12 and 2 in two seasons). In Todd Bowles' defense, I'm not surprised that Davis got a lot of pressure. That's a hallmark of that system as far as A-gap rushers are concerned.

I wouldn't be shocked if the Packers pursued him as he has a Pettine connection, but I don't think it would be much more than a lateral move from Martinez (if not going backwards, allowing that Martinez is ascending). There are much more effective ways to use their cap space, IMO.

For what it's worth (i.e. not definitive proof of anything, but just another voice), here's what the NFL1000 project came up with on these two guys:

1. 
   25. Demario Davis, New York Jets
   
   Pass Defense: 14/25
   Run Defense: 19/25
   Pass Rush: 10/15
   Tackling: 19/25
   Position Value: 7/10
   Overall Grade: 69/100
   
   Demario Davis joined the Jets again after a year in Cleveland and had a revival of sorts. The Jets overperformed as a team, as did Davis individually. He isn't an ideal coverage defender and is at his best as the counter to another player. If Davis can be an underneath zone defender, he's got enough to continue starting. The issue is when he's isolated in man coverage, where is technique is sloppy downfield and exposes poor flexibility. As a run defender, Davis wins with leverage and geometry, and he matches angles well as an interior and edge defender.
   

1. 
   22. Blake Martinez, Green Bay Packers
   
   Pass Defense: 17/25
   Run Defense: 19/25
   Pass Rush: 8/15
   Tackling: 18/25
   Position Value: 7/10
   Overall Grade: 69/100
   
   Blake Martinez might be the league's most improved linebacker from Year 1 to Year 2. At times, he didn't even look like the same player. The inconsistency in run support will show up from time to time, but Martinez looks far more comfortable processing the speed of NFL offenses, and the angles he takes to tackles are much improved. The Packers will need Martinez to continue improving as a man-coverage defender, but he's trending upward faster than most linebackers in the league.
   

 

[brandon2348]

Coverage rating? Like PFF or what are you referencing?

Davis ran a 4.61 at the combine. In 6 NFL seasons, he has 13 PBU's and 1 Interception (Martinez 12 and 2 in two seasons). In Todd Bowles' defense, I'm not surprised that Davis got a lot of pressure. That's a hallmark of that system as far as A-gap rushers are concerned.

I wouldn't be shocked if the Packers pursued him as he has a Pettine connection, but I don't think it would be much more than a lateral move from Martinez (if not going backwards, allowing that Martinez is ascending). There are much more effective ways to use their cap space, IMO.

For what it's worth (i.e. not definitive proof of anything, but just another voice), here's what the NFL1000 project came up with on these two guys:

Take a Gander at these numbers.

http://nflcombineresults.com/playerpage.php?f=Demario&l=Davis&i=9962

I'm pretty sure it's safe to say he is more athletic then any LB we have.

This link below where he is prospect no.2 sbows he is significantly better then Marinez in pass coverage coverage. Still looking for source to this.

https://m.cheeseheadtv.com/blog/10-defensive-players-the-packers-should-pursue-in-free-agency-331

Bottom line is they could play on field together sometimes. I'm sure Pettine could make it work. Davis is the more developed and refined player with 1st class leadership skills and talent to go with it.

Packers need to make this move.

 

[Dantés]

Take a Gander at these numbers.

http://nflcombineresults.com/playerpage.php?f=Demario&l=Davis&i=9962

I'm pretty sure it's safe to say he is more athletic then any LB we have.

This link below where he is prospect no.2 sbows he is significantly better then Marinez in pass coverage coverage. Still looking for source to this.

https://m.cheeseheadtv.com/blog/10-defensive-players-the-packers-should-pursue-in-free-agency-331

Bottom line is they could play on field together sometimes. I'm sure Pettine could make it work. Davis is the more developed and refined player with 1st class leadership skills and talent to go with it.

Packers need to make this move.

I'm sorry Brandon, but your numbers are incorrect.

And based on that link, we are talking about PFF numbers then?

I'm not saying that Davis and Martinez are identical players. One might be a little better than the other depending on what kind of progress Martinez makes between year 2 and year 3. But the gap between the two of them is unlikely to be very large either way, and they would play the same role in the defense. You could play them next to each other, but you never would. Not in 2018 with the way teams throw. If you signed Davis, you'd just have three guys instead of two who are vying for the same role, while not addressing the need to put a more athletic compliment next to them. I can't see why the Packers would spend the cap space on what would constitute a small upgrade at best.

I'm not a huge PFF guy. I appreciate their voice, love a lot of their stats, and will here out there grades. But if you're interested, Davis' 87.3 overall grade in 2017 wasn't all that far above Martinez's 80.2. That's just one more little illustration of my point-- even if that gap stayed static, is that really the area that GB needs to spend in order to address?

The other thing I don't like about Davis as a FA is that you're probably going to have to pay a 29 year old ILB coming off his career season. The most likely outcome for 2018 is that he regresses back to his career normal. That's not really what I think the Packers should look for on the market.

 

[brandon2348]

I'm sorry Brandon, but your numbers are incorrect.

And based on that link, we are talking about PFF numbers then?

I'm not saying that Davis and Martinez are identical players. One might be a little better than the other depending on what kind of progress Martinez makes between year 2 and year 3. But the gap between the two of them is unlikely to be very large either way, and they would play the same role in the defense. You could play them next to each other, but you never would. Not in 2018 with the way teams throw. If you signed Davis, you'd just have three guys instead of two who are vying for the same role, while not addressing the need to put a more athletic compliment next to them. I can't see why the Packers would spend the cap space on what would constitute a small upgrade at best.

I'm not a huge PFF guy. I appreciate their voice, love a lot of their stats, and will here out there grades. But if you're interested, Davis' 87.3 overall grade in 2017 wasn't all that far above Martinez's 80.2. That's just one more little illustration of my point-- even if that gap stayed static, is that really the area that GB needs to spend in order to address?

The other thing I don't like about Davis as a FA is that you're probably going to have to pay a 29 year old ILB coming off his career season. The most likely outcome for 2018 is that he regresses back to his career normal. That's not really what I think the Packers should look for on the market.

Davis is better in every category over Blake. He is faster and can do more. He is just a more explosive player and is in his prime. Throw in the fact that he is a leader and i really really hope Pettine gets him over here. Pettine knows he can do more with Davis then Blake(who is almost maxed out) so I won't even call it a surprise when it probably happens.

The goal is to get better and the $ won't even be that crazy. We get better having Demario Davis.

 

[Dantés]

Davis is better in every category over Blake. He is faster and can do more. He is just a more explosive player and is in his prime. Throw in the fact that he is a leader and i really really hope Pettine gets him over here. Pettine knows he can do more with Davis then Blake(who is almost maxed out) so I won't even call it a surprise when it probably happens.

The goal is to get better and the $ won't even be that crazy. We get better having Demario Davis.

Ok dude. You like him more than me. But you’re claiming to know a bunch of stuff you can’t know. Pettine agrees with you now? Did you call him? He’s better in every category? What are all the categories? He ran a 4.61 six years ago and Martinez ran a 4.71 two years ago and you’re sure you know who is faster? Martinez is almost maxed out? How do you know that? You’re currently touting a linebacker that had his best year as a pro by a good margin in year 6, but Martinez is done developing after year 2? Kind of strange.

But we agree that the goal, in general and with the $, is to get better. I just see much bigger discrepancies where the $ can go a lot further. If the Packers disagree and pursue Davis, I’ll root for him. But I’ll be a little chagrined that we brought in a 3rd MIKE while ignoring the need for athleticism and cover skills in the middle of the field.

 

[brandon2348]

Ok dude. You like him more than me. But you’re claiming to know a bunch of stuff you can’t know. Pettine agrees with you now? Did you call him? He’s better in every category? What are all the categories? He ran a 4.61 six years ago and Martinez ran a 4.71 two years ago and you’re sure you know who is faster? Martinez is almost maxed out? How do you know that? You’re currently touting a linebacker that had his best year as a pro by a good margin in year 6, but Martinez is done developing after year 2? Kind of strange.

But we agree that the goal, in general and with the $, is to get better. I just see much bigger discrepancies where the $ can go a lot further. If the Packers disagree and pursue Davis, I’ll root for him. But I’ll be a little chagrined that we brought in a 3rd MIKE while ignoring the need for athleticism and cover skills in the middle of the field.

He can cover and also can rush the passer. He explodes through holes in the run game. He can do it all and works as hard as anyone. He is a pretty bad *** dude. We've needed a guy like this for years and there is actually a chance now. Hopefully the Rex Ryan, Pettine tree brings him to Green Bay. I'm tired of nice guys and overachievers. Time to be the Hunter. I believe Pettine is gonna bring that and some will gobbi gobbi but I don't care. Go get the best players help us and win a Super Bowl. That's how I feel about it. You want to take short cuts and settle and play nice guy then embrace the 2nd place trophy.

Go watch some of his 2017 tape and get back to me. He can be a "game changer" and his leadership skills are priceless.

 

[Dantés]

He can cover and also can rush the passer. He explodes through holes in the run game. He can do it all and works as hard anyone. He is a pretty bad *** dude. We've needed a guy like this for years and there is actually a chance now. Hopefully the Rex Ryan, Pettine tree brings him to Green Bay. I'm tired of nice guys and overachievers. Time to be the Hunter. I believe Pettine is gonna bring that and some will gobbi gobbi but I don't care. Go get the best players help us and win a Super Bowl. That's how I feel about it. You want to take short cuts and settle and play nice guy then embrace the 2nd place trophy.

Go watch some of his 2017 tape and get back to me. He can be a "game changer" and his leadership skills are priceless.

Yes, that’s what I want. “To settle and play nice guy.” LOL.

The amount of hot air that comes out of you is impressive. This is getting a like from me.

 

[brandon2348]

As long as the vision is to get better and go "all in" towards that I'm in. That also includes learning from past mistakes and having an ability to innovate somewhat.

I'm thinking and hoping we have that with Pettine.

 

[Dantés]

As long as the vision is to get better and go "all in" towards that I'm in. That also includes learning from past mistakes and having an ability to innovate somewhat.

I'm thinking and hoping we have that with Pettine.

I agree with some of your ideas.

They have to lower the cap numbers at wide receiver either through releasing, retiring, restructuring, or a straight pay cut. I actually think Jordy would accept the latter and that his value with Rodgers may make him worth keeping for another season.

But as far as adding to the pass catchers, I have a much different “vision.” My take is that this offense has come to lack speed, explosiveness, and ability to separate. So instead of guys like Sutton and Graham, who are possession targets that win without separation, I much prefer Ridley and Burton, who would bring skills to the offense that don’t currently exist.

Rather than signing Davis and Claiborne, I think they’d be better off spending more on a better veteran cornerback. They really need a 3rd starter who can take the pressure off of King.

 

[PackerDNA]

Micheal Rodney at www.packersnotes.com has an interesting article up on Aaron Colvin, Jax' #3 CB. Worth a look.

 

[GleefulGary]

As long as the vision is to get better and go "all in" towards that I'm in. That also includes learning from past mistakes and having an ability to innovate somewhat.

I'm thinking and hoping we have that with Pettine.

Well I can't imagine the vision is to get worse.

 

[brandon2348]

I agree with some of your ideas.

They have to lower the cap numbers at wide receiver either through releasing, retiring, restructuring, or a straight pay cut. I actually think Jordy would accept the latter and that his value with Rodgers may make him worth keeping for another season.

But as far as adding to the pass catchers, I have a much different “vision.” My take is that this offense has come to lack speed, explosiveness, and ability to separate. So instead of guys like Sutton and Graham, who are possession targets that win without separation, I much prefer Ridley and Burton, who would bring skills to the offense that don’t currently exist.

Rather than signing Davis and Claiborne, I think they’d be better off spending more on a better veteran cornerback. They really need a 3rd starter who can take the pressure off of King.

I wouldn't bock if they signed Johnson. There are many ways to put it together and some might even be better then mine. The bottom line is we can fix it in one off-season if done right. I can see where people like Burton over Graham and wouldn't be upset if that's the direction Packers went. I sat impressed on many routes I saw Burton run this season. However, I was excited about Kendricks ability last year too so expectations tempered there a bit.

As far as Ridley vs Sutton I'm worn out on that one. Do we really want a 185 pound receiver on a frozen field that doesn't even have elite speed to begin with? Not me. I want the the long strider that can body receivers and outjump db' s on 50/50 balls.

I like Michael Gallup as a 2nd day pick to give us what Ridley can and Gallup is already bigger. I also like Washington out of Oklahoma State in 2ND ROUND if Packers decide to get edge in 1st with Arden Key.

There is a corner i believe Pack could get in 3rd that I like in Tavaras McFadden, FSU.

 

[Dantés]

I wouldn't bock if they signed Johnson. There are many ways to put it together and some might even be better then mine. The bottom line is we can fix it in one off-season if done right. I can see where people like Burton over Graham and wouldn't be upset if that's the direction Packers went. I sat impressed on many routes I saw Burton run this season. However, I was excited about Kendricks ability last year too so expectations tempered there a bit.

As far as Ridley vs Sutton I'm worn out on that one. Do we really want a 185 pound receiver on a frozen field that doesn't even have elite speed to begin with? Not me. I want the the long strider that can body receivers and outjump db' s on 50/50 balls.

I like Michael Gallup as a 2nd day pick to give us what Ridley can and Gallup is already bigger. I also like Washington out of Oklahoma State in 2ND ROUND if Packers decide to get edge in 1st with Arden Key.

There is a corner i believe Pack could get in 3rd that I like in Tavaras McFadden, FSU.

I’m not sure we should be making determinations about how big and fast Ridley actually is before the combine. I do think he’ll be a little under 200, but that’s not prohibitive in this league in the least. I do believe his combination of speed and quickness are elite. We will see.

I don’t see what element Sutton would add to the offense that isn’t currently there already. We have guys who make plays against tight coverage. I want separation and big play ability. But like you said, it’s been covered.

I agree on most of this. Kyle Fuller would be my FA corner of choice.

 

[brandon2348]

Well I can't imagine the vision is to get worse.

Several past off season visions didn't play out to well. I also believe this draft is a bit of dud but the players we need are still out there. It is this new regime's responsibility to be aggressive and get them. This sit back and trade back and take some kid we really like that is so nice isn't gonna cut it any longer.

 

[brandon2348]

I’m not sure we should be making determinations about how big and fast Ridley actually is before the combine. I do think he’ll be a little under 200, but that’s not prohibitive in this league in the least. I do believe his combination of speed and quickness are elite. We will see.

I don’t see what element Sutton would add to the offense that isn’t currently there already. We have guys who make plays against tight coverage. I want separation and big play ability. But like you said, it’s been covered.

I agree on most of this. Kyle Fuller would be my FA corner of choice.

I think we have to wait for combine to get many questions answered.

 

[Dantés]

Several past off season visions didn't play out to well. I also believe this draft is a bit of dud but the players we need are still out there. It is this new regime's responsibility to be aggressive and get them. This sit back and trade back and take some kid we really like that is so nice isn't gonna cut it any longer.

I really don’t know what this means. Have the Packers been prioritizing kindness? Is that what you’re saying?

 

[brandon2348]

I really don’t know what this means. Have the Packers been prioritizing kindness? Is that what you’re saying?

Kindness is one way of putting it. Key areas were looked over nearly every year and nothing happened until now. You can call kindness or ignorance or many other things.