2015 Packers notes

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There are a couple of reasons this might be the case.

The favored model in the pass-first game leans toward pass blocking OL players over road graders and (2) TEs valued for pass catching ability over run blocking. Many teams favor zone blocking schemes to accommodate the more athletic/finesse OL players valued for pass blocking over road grading. Many teams look for a primary RB in the Chris Johnson/Jamal Charles mold...they complement the passing game and provide some long gainers (which pad the average by the way), but are a crap shoot in short yardage. Many teams want what was once considered "3rd. down" skills on every down.

The compromise in the pass-first game is in personnel not suited to ground-and-pound. It's gotten to the point where 2nd. and 5 and 3rd. and 2 are predominantly passing downs.

Another consideration is in the hedge-betting in throwing the ball on short yardage. If you run with 2 yards to go, it's an all-or-nothing proposition on opening the hole or cutting a D-Lineman for a dive play. If you play action or roll out, the thinking goes, there's time for the QB to select from a few options among the receivers or run it in.

Certainly there are teams that balance pass/run in their personnel and scheme, either for lack of a decent QB or settling on a game managing option. They are in the minority, however.

If running is more successful than passing in short yardage, yet only 25% of the teams favor it, it's worth considering that 25% or fewer teams run a relatively balanced attack.

I agree with all of the reasons posted above but that doesn't explain why teams have rushed 52.6% of the time from the 2-yard line on regular downs and on 36.6% of the fourth downs in the same situation.
 
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A fumbled snap in the second quarter of the Eagles game resulted in a failed two-point attempt rather than a missed extra point as PFR inaccurately classified it.

Even the NFL's official game book considers that play an aborted kick and not a failed two-point conversion. A play like that shouldn't be taken into consideration when talking about the percentage of succesfully going for two.
 
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I agree with all of the reasons posted above but that doesn't explain why teams have rushed 52.6% of the time from the 2-yard line on regular downs and on 36.6% of the fourth downs in the same situation.
Because NFL football is (1) predominantly run-to-set-up-the-pass and (2) when down to the last chance, coaches like a play call with more than one option to score.
 
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Even the NFL's official game book considers that play an aborted kick and not a failed two-point conversion. A play like that shouldn't be taken into consideration when talking about the percentage of succesfully going for two.
A fumble on an attempted 2-pointer shouldn't count as a failed two-pointer? Why? It's part of the risk/reward calculation. You want to try a quick hitter to the FB? The QB has to get away from the center in an unaccustomed hurry...that can throw off timing.
 

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Even the NFL's official game book considers that play an aborted kick and not a failed two-point conversion. A play like that shouldn't be taken into consideration when talking about the percentage of succesfully going for two.
You may want to check that again (Extra Points Made/Attempted at bottom). The NFL's official game book considers it a two-point attempt, not an extra-point attempt.

Any successful two-point attempt is obviously counted as a two-point conversion regardless of how the play starts, so changing the categorization based on the outcome obviously taints any analysis before it starts.

In any event, Demovsky's numbers are based on the official NFL game book.
 
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A fumble on an attempted 2-pointer shouldn't count as a failed two-pointer? Why? It's part of the risk/reward calculation. You want to try a quick hitter to the FB? The QB has to get away from the center in an unaccustomed hurry...that can throw off timing.

On the play vince was referring to Masthay wasn't able to control the snap on a kicking attempt. That shouldn't be included in the stats as a failed two-point conversion.
 
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You may want to check that again (Extra Points Made/Attempted at bottom). The NFL's official game book considers it a two-point attempt, not an extra-point attempt.

Any successful two-point attempt is obviously counted as a two-point conversion regardless of how the play starts, so changing the categorization based on the outcome obviously taints any analysis before it starts.

In any event, Demovsky's numbers are based on the official NFL game book.

The league has to record that play as a two-point conversion in the stats as Masthay was tackled running backwards with the ball. Nevertheless if you take a look at the description of the play in the official game book there's no mention of a failed two-point conversion.
 

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For the purpose of this discussion - how success percentages should impact teams' decisions whether to kick the PAT or go for 2 – I think it makes sense to categorize plays that begin by attempting the kick as kicks. The league has to categorize them as failed two-point conversions because they turn into two-point plays and the attempt may not have failed.
 
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For the purpose of this discussion - how success percentages should impact teams' decisions whether to kick the PAT or go for 2 – I think it makes sense to categorize plays that begin by attempting the kick as kicks. The league has to categorize them as failed two-point conversions because they turn into two-point plays and the attempt may not have failed.

Pro Football Reference had a total of four either fake or broken plays included in their list of succesful two-point conversions over the last five seasons, which if excluded brings down the success rate to 49.3%.

The average expected points to go for two (0.986) remains higher than kicking it from the 15-yard line though.
 

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There wasn't much to report from the family night practice IMO. Two or three dropped passes and a couple of passes tipped up. D had a few nice pass rushes but of course didn't finish. One thing I noticed was a short yardage play - I think 3rd and one or two with Tolzien at QB. The receiver wide left and the receiver in the slot on the left both faked a "pick play" as if their routes were going to cross and each then planted a foot and broke away from each other. The pass was completed to the slot receiver but both looked open to me. The announcers both guessed it was a pick play.
 

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Pro Football Reference had a total of four either fake or broken plays included in their list of succesful two-point conversions over the last five seasons, which if excluded brings down the success rate to 49.3%.

The average expected points to go for two (0.986) remains higher than kicking it from the 15-yard line though.
How does ESPNStats' larger sample of 46.9% since 2006 check out into the formula?

I'd say it's clear that the 15 yard line was selected for a reason. It's the point at which going for two and kicking for one become a statistical wash. That allows the creation of a competitive play opportunity (where there formerly wasn't one) by adding the risk of giving up two points on such plays without creating a clear advantage or disadvantage to one team or the other based on who's ahead or behind and how much time remains - other than the newly added risk of the defensive opportunity to scoring on the play.

It creates some interest where there wasn't and will provide for a few more missed extra points, increased two-point attempts in adverse weather conditiions, and probably a bit earlier in games by teams who are behind. But as McCarthy and his analytics team have determined, it's not likely to fundamentally change with regard to optimal strategy in most extra-point situations. Teams who are ahead will kick the extra point and teams who are behind will go for two probably a bit earlier and more often.
 
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How does ESPNStats' larger sample of 46.9% since 2006 check out into the formula?

ESPN's numbers since 2006 would result in average expected points of 0.938 per two-point conversion. PFR has a success rate of 49.1% over the same period (EP of 0.982). We already figured out that ESPN and PFR use different methods to come up with those numbers so the truth is somewhere in the middle of it.

Both numbers are higher than on field goals from the 15-yard line over the last nine seasons though with an EP of 0.932.
 

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There wasn't much to report from the family night practice IMO. Two or three dropped passes and a couple of passes tipped up. D had a few nice pass rushes but of course didn't finish. One thing I noticed was a short yardage play - I think 3rd and one or two with Tolzien at QB. The receiver wide left and the receiver in the slot on the left both faked a "pick play" as if their routes were going to cross and each then planted a foot and broke away from each other. The pass was completed to the slot receiver but both looked open to me. The announcers both guessed it was a pick play.

One other note is I thought D. Randall played very well. He didn't allow very much separation to WRs
That I could see and even on the one handed catch that he allowed to Adams the WR clearly pushed off.
 

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Packer Report says Janis really hasn't progressed as hoped at all so far. Kind of disappointing to hear. A lot can happen in the next few weeks but at this point I would say it's anybody's guess between Janis, White, and Abby for the 5th spot with the other 2 possibly sent packing.
 

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There wasn't much to report from the family night practice IMO. Two or three dropped passes and a couple of passes tipped up. D had a few nice pass rushes but of course didn't finish. One thing I noticed was a short yardage play - I think 3rd and one or two with Tolzien at QB. The receiver wide left and the receiver in the slot on the left both faked a "pick play" as if their routes were going to cross and each then planted a foot and broke away from each other. The pass was completed to the slot receiver but both looked open to me. The announcers both guessed it was a pick play.
How many of Rodgers 5 ints last year were tipped up by the receiver? couple of them at least...
 

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Boyd and Thornton... two guys who have the right stature. But havnt quite broke out. Boyd was getting involved at times in the past. Anyone see them make any impact in camp so far?
 
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Packer Report says Janis really hasn't progressed as hoped at all so far. Kind of disappointing to hear. A lot can happen in the next few weeks but at this point I would say it's anybody's guess between Janis, White, and Abby for the 5th spot with the other 2 possibly sent packing.

So far Myles White has clearly been the best receiver out of that group. Another thing that's disappointing is that Abbrederis hasn't been able to stay healthy.

How many of Rodgers 5 ints last year were tipped up by the receiver? couple of them at least...

Four.

Boyd and Thornton... two guys who have the right stature. But havnt quite broke out. Boyd was getting involved at times in the past. Anyone see them make any impact in camp so far?

Boyd missed all of the offseason because of a knee injury and has yet to shake off some rust during camp. Thornton has been more aggressive than last year but hasn't made a ton of impact plays either.
 
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One other note is I thought D. Randall played very well. He didn't allow very much separation to WRs
That I could see and even on the one handed catch that he allowed to Adams the WR clearly pushed off.
No ref is going to flag the receiver on plays such as that.

The question mark with Randall remains. Is he physical enough to get the job done or is he what he was projected to be...a coverage safety?
 
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The Patriots have informed former Packers QB Matt Flynn that he will be released.
 

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Seeing casey as the starting corner opposite Shields scares the crap out of me. I envision numerous 200 yd receiving days for opposing wr's. I would prefer to see Hyde there initially with one of the rookies eventually stepping into that role. Casey is small, slow and injured whenever he tries to actually run fast.
 
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