What are REALISTIC expectations for AR this year?

[brandon2348]

again, of course, but i think it's going to be closer to 50\50 than anyone, including me, was originally thinking...45/55-ish. only one team had a worse run/pass ratio than GB (34/66), and only one team had a higher run/pass ratio than Ten (lefleur- 51/49), last year...thus the reason i now think we're guessing a little high on rodgers' numbers. now if they're playing from behind a lot, because the D sucks, then all bets are off, lol. i'm guessing we'll draft a rb with the 4th or 5th pick too.

50/50 only works if your running the ball successfully. Otherwise it sets up 3rd and longs which are harder to convert.

Unless they do some serious personnel moves on the offensive side this team is not set up to play SMASH MOUTH and impose any will in the run game. I fully expect to still have an offensive game plan where the pass sets up the running game. Let's not kid ourselves here.

We don't have a rb that can even carry the ball 20 times a game let alone the Road Gradders up front to pave the way.

 

[brandon2348]

Both the Rams and Titans(Both where LaFleur has been) have had rosters with Premiere RB's and heavy use of resources spent building the offensive lines.

I don't see how adding Billy Turner puts us in that company.

 

[OldSchool101]

Ah. What the heck.

38 TDs/ 12INT
4,650 yards
66.5%
100%+ rating.

 

[BrokenArrow]

I'm fine with someone (especially a person with a medical background) providing a general outlook on the chances of a player getting back to full strength after an injury assuming there are no complications.

It doesn't make any sense to present it as a fact that Rodgers collarbone is back to full strength without having any inside information on his condition though.

Unless he has some underlying medical condition affecting his ability to heal, it's a safe assumption. Let's put it in the 98.5% confidence range. Better? Any condition that would hamper his ability to heal normally would likely also prevent him from being any kind of real athlete, let a lone a professional quarterback.

 

[gbgary]

Both the Rams and Titans(Both where LaFleur has been) have had rosters with Premiere RB's and heavy use of resources spent building the offensive lines.

I don't see how adding Billy Turner puts us in that company.

but most expect one of those first 3 picks to go towards a top o-lineman, and we have backs that can combine for 20+ carries a game. williams can play smashmouth and don't forget jones had the highest yards per carry i believe too. i didn't say it would be 50/50 either...i said 45/55-ish. do you really expect LMF to abandon the system he's grown up in, and presented to the Packers FO, right out of the chute for something that looks like what we just left behind but with a little more motion? that's a step backward.

 

[rmontro]

but most expect one of those first 3 picks to go towards a top o-lineman, and we have backs that can combine for 20+ carries a game. williams can play smashmouth and don't forget jones had the highest yards per carry i believe too. i didn't say it would be 50/50 either...i said 45/55-ish. do you really expect LMF to abandon the system he's grown up in

Brandon has a point, but I like your answer. One of McCarthy's problems was that he wouldn't adjust his system to fit the players. Let's hope LeFleur isn't the same way. My guess is he will work the team toward become a better running team as time and personnel allows. Rome wasn't built in a day and all that.

 

[OldSchool101]

Brandon has a point, but I like your answer. One of McCarthy's problems was that he wouldn't adjust his system to fit the players. Let's hope LeFleur isn't the same way. My guess is he will work the team toward become a better running team as time and personnel allows. Rome wasn't built in a day and all that.

We should draft one OG or one OT no later than pick #75 IMO. It doesn’t necessarily have to be pick #12, but we need to be thinking about solidifying our depth at OL and as you say, building a Roman Guard for Rodgers. I’d prefer we go after OT now and let Spriggs fight for a backup role at OG or walk away from him when it is feasible. He’s had plenty of time and it’s poop or get off the pot here.
We also have last years 5th round selection in the mix, so that injects at minimum 2 more decent guys into the battle for backup spots. That doesn’t even take into consideration us having exclusive rights on Adam Pankey, Lucas Patrick and Justin McCray, plus signing Billy Turner.
If possible, we should also consider bolstering the RB group again now. Again, it doesn’t need to be round 1, but I’d be seriously considering another RB prospect by #118 if at all possible. A pick at #75 or #114 would round out this group nicely.

All that draft and FA capital is bound to give us a booster shot and improve our production from last years group. I think we could see a marked improvement, especially if we go early at RB and OG. This team may look completely different with a true 1-2 punch in the backfield.

My personal wish is OT by #75 and a run blocking mauler at OG by the #150-#185 range.

 

[brandon2348]

but most expect one of those first 3 picks to go towards a top o-lineman, and we have backs that can combine for 20+ carries a game. williams can play smashmouth and don't forget jones had the highest yards per carry i believe too. i didn't say it would be 50/50 either...i said 45/55-ish. do you really expect LMF to abandon the system he's grown up in, and presented to the Packers FO, right out of the chute for something that looks like what we just left behind but with a little more motion? that's a step backward.

I expect the Packers to make more of an effort to run the ball but my expectations are tempered at what success they will have if they just try to line up and pound it at people successfully with current personnel.

William's can pound a little but in a run heavy offense he is a 3rd RB. I have very little faith that Jones can stay healthy for an entire season or carry any type of heavy workload. We certainly don't have a Gurly or a Henry at RB or an OL that can consistently push people off the ball. Its gonna take time that we don't neccessarrily have so well see.

This is why I am so upset the Packers have done next to nothing in rebuilding this offense. We CAN TRY to run the ball and it sounds good in a press conference but when you don't have the horses to make it happen in a game and your getting stuffed all the sudden it will be asked of Rodgers to make magic happen. Same Old Same Old.

 

[brandon2348]

We also have last years 5th round selection in the mix, .

It's great he is doing better and gonna give it a go but he hasn't played in nearly two years now and comes from a college offense where they throw the ball almost every down. He is going to most likely need some time.

He we are again hoping on some 5th round pick to surprise us. Seems all to frequent.

 

[OldSchool101]

I expect the Packers to make more of an effort to run the ball but my expectations are tempered at what success they will have if they just try to line up and pound it at people successfully with current personnel.

William's can pound a little but in a run heavy offense he is a 3rd RB. I have very little faith that Jones can stay healthy for an entire season or carry any type of heavy workload. We certainly don't have a Gurly or a Henry at RB or an OL that can consistently push people off the ball. Its gonna take time that we don't neccessarrily have so well see.

This is why I am so upset the Packers have done next to nothing in rebuilding this offense. We CAN TRY to run the ball and it sounds good in a press conference but when you don't have the horses to make it happen in a game and your getting stuffed all the sudden it will be asked of Rodgers to make magic happen. Same Old Same Old.

I had an O scenario you might like..

Trade back #12 and #150 for #15 and #76.
Package #44 and #76 to get either #29 or #31
Pick Metcalf, Cody Ford (LOG) and Parris at
#15, #29, #30 (all slight reaches but all very formidable)

Then hit OT, Safety, RB at #75, #114, #118

Finish out with
ILB, TE, QB

Keep 7 again at WR: Adams, Metcalf, Parris, G-mo, MVS, EQ and Kumerow (Moore to PS)

Starting OL:
1. Bak, Ford, Linsley, Turner, Bulaga
2. McCray, Taylor, Spriggs, M Sharping,
(Lucas Patrick to PS)

RBs:
Jones, Williams and D. Singleterry

 

[Deleted member 6794]

50/50 only works if your running the ball successfully. Otherwise it sets up 3rd and longs which are harder to convert.

Unless they do some serious personnel moves on the offensive side this team is not set up to play SMASH MOUTH and impose any will in the run game. I fully expect to still have an offensive game plan where the pass sets up the running game. Let's not kid ourselves here.

The Packers definitely aren't set up to feature a power running game. They have had success rushing the ball (2nd in yards per attempt in 2018) as teams don't load the box with Rodgers behind center.

Unless he has some underlying medical condition affecting his ability to heal, it's a safe assumption.

It's an assumption though, which was my point from the beginning.

 

[Favre>Rodgers259]

What do I expect?

A Super Bowl Ring. He can throw 30 interceptions for all I care.

 

[PackAttack12]

Unless he has some underlying medical condition affecting his ability to heal, it's a safe assumption. Let's put it in the 98.5% confidence range. Better? Any condition that would hamper his ability to heal normally would likely also prevent him from being any kind of real athlete, let a lone a professional quarterback.

With all due respect, you cannot present assumptions as facts.

 

[sschind]

It's great he is doing better and gonna give it a go but he hasn't played in nearly two years now and comes from a college offense where they throw the ball almost every down. He is going to most likely need some time.

He we are again hoping on some 5th round pick to surprise us. Seems all to frequent.

In this case I agree with you except we always hope every 5th round pick surprises us don't we? The difference is when people start expecting it which I realize is what you have been saying but it goes for every position not just the ones you deem important. I agree with you 100% about the Packers ignoring the WR group and relying on late round picks to keep the cupboard stocked. I've been hoping for an early pick for a while now. If they believe Campbell is the right guy for the slot i would have no problem taking him at #30.

 

[LetzBreel]

The biggest problem that the Packers have is special teams and punting. In my mind it is the most important aspect of the game. If your defense is constantly put in bad field position, sooner or later their will is destroyed. When is the last time the Packers had a good punter? Hentrich? How often did last years special teams give up field position? I certainly don't know the stats but I would bet that the Packers were in the lower 3rd of the league.

 

[rmontro]

The biggest problem that the Packers have is special teams and punting. In my mind it is the most important aspect of the game. If your defense is constantly put in bad field position, sooner or later their will is destroyed.

True. The defense always gets talked about, but special teams have held us back over the years also. The field position is somewhat mitigated by the fact that Rodgers rarely turns over the ball. But that is somewhat mitigated by all the three and outs we seem to accumulate.

 

[Do7]

What do I expect?

A Super Bowl Ring. He can throw 30 interceptions for all I care.

If Rodgers does indeed win another SB ring will that mean Rodgers will have eclipsed Favre in who the better QB was? I'm only asking because of your profile name.

 

[gbgary]

If Rodgers does indeed win another SB ring will that mean Rodgers will have eclipsed Favre in who the better QB was? I'm only asking because of your profile name.

he's already got that title as far as i'm concerned. not holding my breath on that SB though. as miracle max (and tiger woods) once said, "it would take a miracle."

 

[Do7]

he's already got that title as far as i'm concerned. not holding my breath on that SB though. as miracle max (and tiger woods) once said, "it would take a miracle."

Meh. Keep your hopes high, but your expectations low. Worked countless times for me.

 

[OldSchool101]

he's already got that title as far as i'm concerned. not holding my breath on that SB though. as miracle max (and tiger woods) once said, "it would take a miracle."

Hey. If Tiger can do it

 

[Deleted member 6794]

The biggest problem that the Packers have is special teams and punting. In my mind it is the most important aspect of the game. If your defense is constantly put in bad field position, sooner or later their will is destroyed. When is the last time the Packers had a good punter? Hentrich? How often did last years special teams give up field position? I certainly don't know the stats but I would bet that the Packers were in the lower 3rd of the league.

The Packers definitely have to improve their special teams but considering them the most important aspect of the game is grossly exaggerated.

The field position is somewhat mitigated by the fact that Rodgers rarely turns over the ball. But that is somewhat mitigated by all the three and outs we seem to accumulate.

It's true the Packers generate too many three and outs. Since 2014 when they had the second fewest per drive in the league they haven't been in the top 10 in that category anymore.

 

[BrokenArrow]

The Packers definitely aren't set up to feature a power running game. They have had success rushing the ball (2nd in yards per attempt in 2018) as teams don't load the box with Rodgers behind center.



It's an assumption though, which was my point from the beginning.

You would probably assume your car won't be destroyed in a fire this weekend, right? Do you know that for 100% fact? No, but both assumptions are pretty damn safe.

 

[tripleguy]

1) Get the ball out, quick.
2) Get the ball out, quick.
3) Get the ball out, quick.

 

[sschind]

1) Get the ball out, quick.
2) Get the ball out, quick.
3) Get the ball out, quick.

He asked for realistic expectations not pipe dreams.