Week 9: Packers in New England

[PackAttack12]

All that and Rodgers has never lost to Brady in a game he started. 2006 Favre started and went out injured. 2010 Matt Flynn played.

Yeah but that was just the one game in 2014 at Lambeau, right?

 

[RepStar15]

Based on who they will be drawing in coverage. Adams will get JMac + a safety, but will likely still put up good numbers. After that, Gilmore will take Allison out of the game completely. Graham will draw Chung for the most part, and will only be doubled with a LB + a safety on 3rd downs and in the RZ. Cobb, who hasn't been even remotely impressive this season, will draw Jonathan Jones, who has been exceptional inside the slot.

A lot of the things GB does on offense with their switch concepts don't really work against a good cover 1 team like NE. I expect them to move the ball between the 20s, but they will likely be held to 24 or under.

I find it highly unlikely that Gilmore is not lined up against Adams in single coverage, and I do not see Adams struggling against him. But in your scenario your suggesting that Adams is against the McCourtey brothers (both of which have struggled this year in coverage), Graham will be up against HT/Chung (HT has been about as fast as Kenny Clark this year, and Chung whom gets knocked off the ball but does not give up the big play). Gilmore even has been getting lost in coverage. What I really cannot get on pace with is that jonathon Jones has been “exceptional” this year in slot coverage? He has been statistically one of the worst slot corners in the NFL this year and most people would expect him to lose his job to the rookie they drafted in the second round upon his return.

 

[rodell330]

I find it hard to even get excited about this game right now. I'm still so numb about what happened yesterday. And I've been looking forward to this particular matchup for a long time.

Packers/Patriots. Rodgers/Brady. Yet I'm just numb to it right now.

Couldn't think of a worse feeling for a team going into Foxboro then what they must be feeling right now.

Same here, man. I probably won’t be over this last game until Friday. Imagine if the Packers had won. They usually go on a streak around this time...but a loss like that can linger and have them playing flat and looking bad In Foxboro. Damn TY smh

 

[Poppa San]

Yeah but that was just the one game in 2014 at Lambeau, right?

Yeah so a single data point does not a trend make. Just threw it out to be optimistic. It's better than the opposite though.

 

[TB5XSBW]

I find it highly unlikely that Gilmore is not lined up against Adams in single coverage, and I do not see Adams struggling against him. But in your scenario your suggesting that Adams is against the McCourtey brothers (both of which have struggled this year in coverage), Graham will be up against HT/Chung (HT has been about as fast as Kenny Clark this year, and Chung whom gets knocked off the ball but does not give up the big play). Gilmore even has been getting lost in coverage. What I really cannot get on pace with is that jonathon Jones has been “exceptional” this year in slot coverage? He has been statistically one of the worst slot corners in the NFL this year and most people would expect him to lose his job to the rookie they drafted in the second round upon his return.

Belichick usually uses his #2 corner + a safety on the other team's #1 WR and his #1 corner one-on-one vs the #2. I expect that to be the case here as well. Jason McCourty hasn't struggled at all. He has actually been a very good CB2 this season. I don't usually rely heavily on PFF, but they rank him as a top 10 CB this year, so the analytics back up the eye test. I don't expect NE to completely shut down Adams. I still think he gets 100+ yards, but at the very least they should be able to limit the big plays down field. That leaves Gilmore on Allison, and he shouldn't have any issues shutting him down.

The only game where Jones struggled consistently was the KC game. KC's offense (their scheme & personnel) is the kryptonite of our defense, and so is any team who runs that same style of offense with lots of misdirection, jet motion, mesh concepts, speed, etc. Jones was abused by Hill on several occasions, but which corner hasn't? KC did a lot of creative things, as usual, to isolate guys like Hill and Hunt on Jones. Jones has been very good this season, with the exception of that game. Cobb can't do the things that these guys do, so i don't see him being a problem.

Regarding Graham, go back to the KC game and see how we dealt with Kelce. HT lined up against him on certain situations to jam him at the line, and then had safety help over the top, and it worked well. They used different coverages and assignments on him, and they essentially took him out of the game. Chung has also done well one on one vs TEs. He had the lowest passer rating allowed when covering TEs last season.

 

[Mondio]

if they're going to use a safety to help on Graham and a safety to help on Adams, I have to say, I like our chances with the long ball

 

[TB5XSBW]

if they're going to use a safety to help on Graham and a safety to help on Adams, I have to say, I like our chances with the long ball

Safety help on Graham only in certain situations (3rd down and in the RZ) when we will be using 6 or 7 DBs anyways.

 

[Ken smith]

Hopefully another good team performance.... and please, please, please God.... send the coaching staff a game plan and wisdom to go with it this time.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

Good pump up for next weeks game!

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[RepStar15]

Belichick usually uses his #2 corner + a safety on the other team's #1 WR and his #1 corner one-on-one vs the #2. I expect that to be the case here as well. Jason McCourty hasn't struggled at all. He has actually been a very good CB2 this season. I don't usually rely heavily on PFF, but they rank him as a top 10 CB this year, so the analytics back up the eye test. I don't expect NE to completely shut down Adams. I still think he gets 100+ yards, but at the very least they should be able to limit the big plays down field. That leaves Gilmore on Allison, and he shouldn't have any issues shutting him down.

The only game where Jones struggled consistently was the KC game. KC's offense (their scheme & personnel) is the kryptonite of our defense, and so is any team who runs that same style of offense with lots of misdirection, jet motion, mesh concepts, speed, etc. Jones was abused by Hill on several occasions, but which corner hasn't? KC did a lot of creative things, as usual, to isolate guys like Hill and Hunt on Jones. Jones has been very good this season, with the exception of that game. Cobb can't do the things that these guys do, so i don't see him being a problem.

Regarding Graham, go back to the KC game and see how we dealt with Kelce. HT lined up against him on certain situations to jam him at the line, and then had safety help over the top, and it worked well. They used different coverages and assignments on him, and they essentially took him out of the game. Chung has also done well one on one vs TEs. He had the lowest passer rating allowed when covering TEs last season.

Patriots fans are such a unique breed. Patriots fans are the only fans I know that refuse to identify the weaknesses within their team. They will argue that the Patriots defense is not as bad as it really is. They will turn blue in the face arguing that the AFC East is not as bad as it really is. And when they lose it’s because, “this is the (enter team name here) super bowl. Everyone plays us so much harder than everybody else.”

Don’t get me wrong, I am the biggest Bill Belichick supporter on the planet. He’s the greatest coach of all time IMO. As long as he is on the sideline, that team has a chance to win. Give him Josh Rosen and he will go 10-6. But the fact is, the Patriots defense has some serious holes right now. If I was a Patriots fan, I would be terrified that AR12 was playing against one of the worst defenses in the league, but that’s because I’m a football fan. I don’t need to manipulate numbers to favor my argument to make my team look better than it is, but if you want to go the “homer” route then...Aaron Jones averages 6.23 yards per carry and Sony Michel only averages 4.44. So Aaron Jones is better than Sony Michel. Aaron rodgers statically is better than Tom Brady in every pure QB statistic. The only stat that Brady is better than Rodgers is wins vs losses, but that is a team stat. Jimmy Graham and Gronk are averaging almost the same yards per game and both only have 1 TD, so they are equal. Do I believe all of that? No. I just manipulated the numbers to prove my point.

Here is where the Patriots will beat us: James White lining up on the line and Gronk through the middle. Those two players will have over 100 yards. Here’s where we beat the Patriots: attack the defense, spread the ball around to different recievers and pressure Brady.

If you have watched both teams play every week, you know this is a very evenly matched football game. Patriots offense has the sedge over our offense, but our defense has the edge over the Patriots defense. Neither team has been very successful on 3rd down conversions offensively, almost dead even. The Patriots have been more much successful offensively in the red zone than the Packers. But the Packers defense has been significantly better at stopping the third down conversions than the Patriots have. New England has been better at holding the opposing team to a field goal, than GB has. GB has been better at forcing punts. Aside from this being an instant classic, it’s a well matched game. We have holes and flaws and so do the Patriots. Patriots of course have the edge overall in this game, but I wouldn’t even come close to writing the Packers off.

Also, if your going to come into a Packers forum before a matchup, don’t be a typical New England homer. You won’t find too many homers here my friend. We all know where we suck and don’t hesitate to point out our own weaknesses as fans of the sport. By the way, maybe I’ll see you at the game and buy you a beer! I’ll likely be the only girl wearing either a Bahkitari #69 jersey (while my husband wears a #69 Mason jersey) or I’ll go with my classic Bart Starr #15.

 

[Mondio]

RB's out of the backfield and TE's seem to be our weakness. That has me worried a little bit.

 

[TB5XSBW]

Patriots fans are such a unique breed. Patriots fans are the only fans I know that refuse to identify the weaknesses within their team. They will argue that the Patriots defense is not as bad as it really is. They will turn blue in the face arguing that the AFC East is not as bad as it really is. And when they lose it’s because, “this is the (enter team name here) super bowl. Everyone plays us so much harder than everybody else.”

Don’t get me wrong, I am the biggest Bill Belichick supporter on the planet. He’s the greatest coach of all time IMO. As long as he is on the sideline, that team has a chance to win. Give him Josh Rosen and he will go 10-6. But the fact is, the Patriots defense has some serious holes right now. If I was a Patriots fan, I would be terrified that AR12 was playing against one of the worst defenses in the league, but that’s because I’m a football fan. I don’t need to manipulate numbers to favor my argument to make my team look better than it is, but if you want to go the “homer” route then...Aaron Jones averages 6.23 yards per carry and Sony Michel only averages 4.44. So Aaron Jones is better than Sony Michel. Aaron rodgers statically is better than Tom Brady in every pure QB statistic. The only stat that Brady is better than Rodgers is wins vs losses, but that is a team stat. Jimmy Graham and Gronk are averaging almost the same yards per game and both only have 1 TD, so they are equal. Do I believe all of that? No. I just manipulated the numbers to prove my point.

Here is where the Patriots will beat us: James White lining up on the line and Gronk through the middle. Those two players will have over 100 yards. Here’s where we beat the Patriots: attack the defense, spread the ball around to different recievers and pressure Brady.

If you have watched both teams play every week, you know this is a very evenly matched football game. Patriots offense has the sedge over our offense, but our defense has the edge over the Patriots defense. Neither team has been very successful on 3rd down conversions offensively, almost dead even. The Patriots have been more much successful offensively in the red zone than the Packers. But the Packers defense has been significantly better at stopping the third down conversions than the Patriots have. New England has been better at holding the opposing team to a field goal, than GB has. GB has been better at forcing punts. Aside from this being an instant classic, it’s a well matched game. We have holes and flaws and so do the Patriots. Patriots of course have the edge overall in this game, but I wouldn’t even come close to writing the Packers off.

Also, if your going to come into a Packers forum before a matchup, don’t be a typical New England homer. You won’t find too many homers here my friend. We all know where we suck and don’t hesitate to point out our own weaknesses as fans of the sport. By the way, maybe I’ll see you at the game and buy you a beer! I’ll likely be the only girl wearing either a Bahkitari #69 jersey (while my husband wears a #69 Mason jersey) or I’ll go with my classic Bart Starr #15.

I literally told you what our weakness is. RBs out of the backfield vs our LBs in coverage, and having Devin McCourty cover TEs when we use Chung elsewhere. Schematically, we struggle with offenses that use a lot of misdirection, jet motion, and mesh concepts. The Packers don't pose much of a threat schematically or personnel wise. The Bears' (and of course KC's) offense was a much worse match up for our defense. Football is a game of match ups, not offensive and defensive rankings.

On top of that, GB is averaging 25 points per game. This is just not an offense that's going to keep me up at night. They struggle to convert 3rd downs, and Rodgers hasn't been very impressive this year. Your coach tends to go brain dead quite often, too. I'm quite confident that NE keeps GB to 24 points or fewer.

 

[RepStar15]

I literally told you what our weakness is. RBs out of the backfield vs our LBs in coverage, and having Devin McCourty cover TEs when we use Chung elsewhere. Schematically, we struggle with offenses that use a lot of misdirection, jet motion, and mesh concepts. The Packers don't pose much of a threat schematically or personnel wise. The Bears' (and of course KC's) offense was a much worse match up for our defense. Football is a game of match ups, not offensive and defensive rankings.

On top of that, GB is averaging 25 points per game. This is just not an offense that's going to keep me up at night. They struggle to convert 3rd downs, and Rodgers hasn't been very impressive this year. Your coach tends to go brain dead quite often, too. I'm quite confident that NE keeps GB to 24 points or fewer.

They have yet to face a defense that has given up 31 points per game in their last 3 games.

 

[TB5XSBW]

They have yet to face a defense that has given up 31 points per game in their last 3 games.

Those are three of the top 10 highest scoring offenses in the league, including KC who is #1 with 36 PPG. Don't compare those offenses to GB.

To bring it back to the schematic and personnel match ups, literally all 3 of those teams run the same Andy Reid type offense, which as previously stated, has been our kryptonite in recent years, and they all have exceptional pass catching RBs.

 

[RepStar15]

Those are three of the top 10 highest scoring offenses in the league, including KC who is #1 with 36 PPG. Don't compare those offenses to GB.

To bring it back to the schematic and personnel match ups, literally all 3 of those teams run the same Andy Reid type offense, which as previously stated, has been our kryptonite in recent years, and they all have exceptional pass catching RBs.

So the lions, bears, Miami, colts, Jags and Texans have better offenses than the Packers? Such a typical Pats fan. Kansas City absolutely has a better offense, but the others? How many Packers games have you actually watched start to finish? I have watched all 7 Patriots games, were at two, and all 7 Packers. Start to finish, didn’t miss a play. You are clinically insane if you think that All of those teams have a better offense. My husband a Patriots fan is laughing at you right now. I’m not responding to this anymore. This is too funny.

 

[TB5XSBW]

So the lions, bears, Miami, colts, Jags and Texans have better offenses than the Packers? Such a typical Pats fan. Kansas City absolutely has a better offense, but the others? How many Packers games have you actually watched start to finish? I have watched all 7 Patriots games, were at two, and all 7 Packers. Start to finish, didn’t miss a play. You are clinically insane if you think that All of those teams have a better offense. My husband a Patriots fan is laughing at you right now. I’m not responding to this anymore. This is too funny.

You were specifically referring to the previous 3 games - the Bears, the Chiefs, and the Colts. All of whom have outscored GB this season, but most importantly, play a style of offense that we match up poorly against.

 

[RepStar15]

You were specifically referring to the previous 3 games - the Bears, the Chiefs, and the Colts. All of whom have outscored GB this season, but most importantly, play a style of offense that we match up poorly against.

Patriots 10; Lions 26 —> -16 point difference
Packers 23; Lions 31 —> -8 point difference
Packers 22; Bills 0 —> +22 point difference
Patriots 25: Bills 6 —> +19 point difference
Packers 24; Bears 23 —> +1 point difference
Patriots 36: Bears 31 —> +5 point difference

Packers vs like teams —> +15
Patriots vs like teams —> +8

Packers Points Scored —> 69
Packers points scored against —> 54

Patriots Points Scored —> 71
Patriots points scored against —> 63

 

[TB5XSBW]

Patriots 10; Lions 26 —> -16 point difference
Packers 23; Lions 31 —> -8 point difference
Packers 22; Bills 0 —> +22 point difference
Patriots 25: Bills 6 —> +19 point difference
Packers 24; Bears 23 —> +1 point difference
Patriots 36: Bears 31 —> +5 point difference

Packers vs like teams —> +15
Patriots vs like teams —> +8

Packers Points Scored —> 69
Packers points scored against —> 54

Patriots Points Scored —> 71
Patriots points scored against —> 63

You realize that the law of transitivity doesn't apply in football, or any sport, right?

 

[longtimefan]

Yeah but that was just the one game in 2014 at Lambeau, right?

Should have Won with Matt Flynn at NE as well

 

[longtimefan]

I literally told you what our weakness is. RBs out of the backfield vs our LBs in coverage, and having Devin McCourty cover TEs when we use Chung elsewhere. Schematically, we struggle with offenses that use a lot of misdirection, jet motion, and mesh concepts. The Packers don't pose much of a threat schematically or personnel wise. The Bears' (and of course KC's) offense was a much worse match up for our defense. Football is a game of match ups, not offensive and defensive rankings.

On top of that, GB is averaging 25 points per game. This is just not an offense that's going to keep me up at night. They struggle to convert 3rd downs, and Rodgers hasn't been very impressive this year. Your coach tends to go brain dead quite often, too. I'm quite confident that NE keeps GB to 24 points or fewer.

Type of post that bites you in the ***

MAJORITY OF THE TIME

 

[longtimefan]

Those are three of the top 10 highest scoring offenses in the league, including KC who is #1 with 36 PPG. Don't compare those offenses to GB.

To bring it back to the schematic and personnel match ups, literally all 3 of those teams run the same Andy Reid type offense, which as previously stated, has been our kryptonite in recent years, and they all have exceptional pass catching RBs.

Just throwing this out. .

Were those qb healthy all games? Or injured as Rodgers was

Or missing 2 out of 3 top wr and number one rb? For a lengthy time.?

1st time all year all where all on offense were healthy or off suspension was yesterday... And put 27 on the Rams..

which I think was very good... Considering they were giving up 128 pts in games 7 games.... Or 18 pts per game.

9 points more than their average is not to bad

We will see how this pans out.. But don't just poo poo this team.. Lot of things are diff than you are thinking

 

[Deleted member 6794]

I think we matched up better with the Rams than the Pats. RB's and TE's, we still haven't proven we can cover them out of the backfield. The Rams had a great back, but really not much in the way of TE. Their big plays are to their WR's set up off play action. with everyone healthy and Alexander back, I figured we'd be able to cover that well.

I was surprised how well we kept Gurley contained for much of the game anyway. I think offensively, we can score a lot more points against the Pats. Our offense matches up well against them. But i'm not as confident in our defense against them.

According to Football Outsiders DVOA the Packers have actually done better than expected defending running backs and tight ends in the passing game, ranking 11th in both categories.

I don't see why some here think GB's offense matches up well vs NE's defense. Football is all about scheme, personnel, and match ups, not about offensive or defensive rankings.

The Packers don't really do the things on offense that have posed issues for NE's defense. The Packers' RBs are not a threat in the passing game, and their TEs have been mediocre at best. Most of GB's chunk gains have come from their vertical passing game from switch concept, which doesn't really work as well against what NE does on defense - a lot of cover 1 with a safety dropping into robber.

Adams will be a problem, and will probably be double teamed with JMac and a safety. Other than that, I don't see many offensive threats. Graham is soft and has been shut down by Belichick before. Jonathan Jones has been very good as a slot CB, while Cobb hasn't really produced this season. Allison will likely be taken out of the game completely by Gilmore.

I fully expect Adams to have a good game as the Patriots have had troubles defending #1 receivers. You're right that other than that the Packers don't have another weapon posting a matchup problem for New England's defense as McCarthy doesn't use the running backs enough in the passing game.

With that being said the Patriots haven't faced an elite experienced quarterback like Rodgers so far and while Green Bay's offense hasn't performed up to expectations this season you're fooling yourself if you believe they can't break out of their funk at any point.

You were specifically referring to the previous 3 games - the Bears, the Chiefs, and the Colts. All of whom have outscored GB this season, but most importantly, play a style of offense that we match up poorly against.

The Packers definitely have more talent on offense than the Bears and Colts.

 

[TB5XSBW]

According to Football Outsiders DVOA the Packers have actually done better than expected defending running backs and tight ends in the passing game, ranking 11th in both categories.



I fully expect Adams to have a good game as the Patriots have had troubles defending #1 receivers. You're right that other than that the Packers don't have another weapon posting a matchup problem for New England's defense as McCarthy doesn't use the running backs enough in the passing game.

With that being said the Patriots haven't faced an elite experienced quarterback like Rodgers so far and while Green Bay's offense hasn't performed up to expectations this season you're fooling yourself if you believe they can't break out of their funk at any point.



The Packers definitely have more talent on offense than the Bears and Colts.

More talented overall than the Colts, sure. Debatable about the Bears. But the Packers definitely don't pose the same schematic and personnel issues that these offenses do.

 

[TB5XSBW]

Just throwing this out. .

Were those qb healthy all games? Or injured as Rodgers was

Or missing 2 out of 3 top wr and number one rb? For a lengthy time.?

1st time all year all where all on offense were healthy or off suspension was yesterday... And put 27 on the Rams..

which I think was very good... Considering they were giving up 128 pts in games 7 games.... Or 18 pts per game.

9 points more than their average is not to bad

We will see how this pans out.. But don't just poo poo this team.. Lot of things are diff than you are thinking

What the Packers do best (big chunk gains on passes downfield) matches up well with LA's weakness on defense, which is their secondary. Marcus Peters is arguably the worst CB in the league, and it's no surprise that he was abused.

 

[PackinMSP]

This team really hasn't been very good since the 2014 NFC Championship Game IMHO....

Sure in 2016 AR had the "run the table" and we were sort of good BUT...

I just don't feel "it" anymore watching this team. They're just not a Top 3-5 team anymore like they were in that timespan.

MM simply has NOT done a good job with adjusting his gameplan/playcalling/scheming/etc

This is stuff you see happening with team with GOOD coaches like the Patriots(obv), but even with the Rams and the Eagles.

They are finding ways to "coach/scheme" to get guys open/position to make plays.

The Packers and MM mostly rely WAY TOO much on AR to be "Superman" pretty much EVERY game