Week 4 Bring On The Eagles

[greengold]

Some statistics on the Eagles thus far:

Yards/Play: 5.2, 24th (Packers- 4.8, 28th)
Yds/Pass: 6.7, 27th (Packers- 7.0, 26th)
Pass Attempts: 123, 6th (Packers- 93, 28th)
Yds/Carry: 3.6, 25th (Packers- 3.2, 27th)
Rush Attempts: 82, 13th (Packers- 78, 15th)
Pts/Game: 25.3, 9th (Packers- 19.3, 23rd)
Giveaways: 5, 7thT (Packers-2, 28th)

Yds Allowed/Play: 5.9, 19th (Packers- 5.0, 7th)
Yds Allowed/Pass: 7.6, 18th (Packers- 6.3, 6th)
Yds Allow/Rush: 2.9, 2nd (Packers- 4.9 27th)
Sacks: 2, 31st (Packers- 12, 3rdT)
Pts/Game: 26, 24th (Packers- 11.7, 2nd)
Takeaways: 3, 17th (Packers- 8, 1st)

Previous Games (Eagles):

• Vs. Washington; 32-27 Win; Washington (0-3) 30th in scoring defense and 20th in scoring offense
• @ Atlanta; 24-20 Loss; Atlanta (1-2) 21st in scoring defense and 22nd in scoring offense
• Vs. Detroit; 27-24 Loss; Detroit (2-0-1) 20th in scoring defense and 16th in scoring offense

Previous Games (Packers):

• @ Chicago; 10-3 Win; Chicago (2-1) 3rd in scoring defense and 26th in scoring offense
• Vs. Minnesota; 21-16 Win; Minnesota (2-1) 6th in scoring defense and 7th in scoring offense
• Vs. Denver; 27-16 Win; Denver (0-3) 17th in scoring defense and 30th in scoring offense

So what to make of all of this?

• There are a number of similarities-- especially offensive inefficiency and having had two games at home.
• The Packers' defense overall, especially in regards to pass defense, sacks, and takeaways, has been significantly better.
• The Eagles' run defense has been the strength of their defense and the Packers' its weakness.
• The Packers have faced the superior defenses by a wide margin.
• The Eagles have generally faced better scoring offenses, but the most effective unit of the bunch (MIN) has been a Packer opponent.
• Conclusion: This Philly defense should offer an opportunity for the Packers to take another step forward on offense. They are the worst unit by a fairly wide margin that Green Bay will see in this first quarter of the season. However, if the Packers offense sputters once again, the running game may spell trouble for them. If the game script is positive or neutral for the Eagles, they may be able to take advantage of a soft rushing attack. If Green Bay can jump up early, then I would guess it's lights out for Wentz & Co. The biggest reason for optimism in this game is really just the simple reality that the Eagles are travelling 1,000 miles on short rest with a fairly banged up squad.
• Prediction: 34-20 Packers

Very, very well said and reasoned. Thanks for the info, Dantés.

Had me thinking concepts of “pass to set up the run,” and “run to set up the pass.” Started thinking about that last week v. DEN.

Cox, Graham, Jernigan & Barnett are tough for anybody to run on. One weakness may be Jernigan’s recent foot injury that may keep him out, and an ankle injury to Barnett.

Their secondary being completely depleted with Darby out with a hamstring has me thinking Rodgers and his WRs could make this really ugly, really fast. Aaron Jones & Jamaal Williams ought to fare pretty well on the edges too to finish the Eagles off.

I can see Davante Adams getting at least two TDs.

 

[Do7]

It appears that Alshon will be playing tomorrow another weapon we'll have to be on the lookout for. I'll give my thoughts on the game later today.

 

[XPack]

Za'darius is listed as Q

Hope he's ready to go.

 

[Raptorman]

My prediction. The Packers first loss.

 

[greengold]

Shocker.

 

[GleefulGary]

that was against the old defensive backfield that everyone had a good game against. he's good but he won't scorch these guys. the TE is the worry. holman (our best press cover) is back.

I'm sorry...what?

You think Hollman is our best press CB? Have you not seen Alexander play?

 

[AmishMafia]

I was at the stadium today. Place was crawling with Eagle fans. All were smiling and walking around looking about in awe, soaking in the atmosphere. Spoke to a few. Very friendly. Will see how long that lasts come game time.

 

[Do7]

Alright here are my thoughts:

This game reeks of a trap game. This is the kind of game I could see us dropping due to several reasons. The first being Philadelphia has their backs against the corner, and typically those are the kind of teams that are often the most dangerous. I could see them throwing everything and the kitchen sink at us. A victory against us can help turn their season around. The second reason is because the Eagles are banged up, I can see us dropping our guard a tad bit and not go in as hard as we play the Cowboys next week. I'm not saying this to be the case, but I am very nervous about this game. Wentz is the kind of QB that will let it fly, but he can also make plays with his feet.

Now the good news is that their o-line seems to be less than desirable right now, and I do think we'll be able to create pressure on him. And I do think we can have our way with them on defense considering how teams such as Atlanta, Detroit, and even Washington have had their way with them. Having said that we need to get out to an early lead and quick. Granted I feel like Philly is a second half team than a first half team, and they'll try to make their comeback later in the game. I fully expect Wentz to throw some deep balls for the receivers, with a bit of luck they'll still carry over the dropsies they had last week against Detroit.

It appears that Alshon will be suiting up which makes me a bit nervous as the dude has always been a pain in the *** to deal with, especially during the twin tower days in Chicago with his former teammate Brandon Marshall.

I would let Za'Darius sit this game, as we're DEFINITELY going to need him the following week against Dallas.

Initially I had Philly beating us, but I think we get the win here and we see the offense begin to emerge. Rodgers will have at LEAST 3 TDs for the night, if not more.

Another prediction is that I see our secondary picking off Wentz at least twice. If we're lucky a fumble.

Final score: Packers 33 Eagles: 20

But this game scares me. I pray we suffer no injuries.

 

[HardRightEdge]

The Packers need to markedly improve on 3rd. downs, currently ranking 30th. at 25%. There are no outliers in that number; it has been consistently poor in each of the three games:

CHI: 2-12
MIN: 5-15
DEN: 2-9

This is a pattern verging on a trend that needs to be snapped.

Philly's tough run defense and the Packers' sketchy run blocking to date does not bode well for down-and-distance. Rodgers inaccuracies and throw aways on run-substitution passes doesn't help matters.

For all the criticisms leveled at Philly's pass defense, their QB-rating-against is actually slightly better than the Vikings, and their 3rd. down defense is a quite respectable at 37.8%, 13th. ranked. It also doesn't help that Philly's D has given up the fewest first downs by penalty, only one.

Another Packer 3rd. down conversion rate like the ones to date does not bode well. LaFleur/Rodgers need to find 3rd. down solutions, otherwise another big play defensive performance (+2 turnovers/big special teams plays or a mess of drive killing sacks) will be required if they can't improve that conversion rate.

The Packers have been stellar in the red zone, scoring TDs on 6 of 7 trips, something of a paradox relative to the 3rd. down coversion rate. Philly has been not too shabby themselves converting 7 of 12 for an above averate 58%. On defense, the Packers have surrendered TDs on 2 of 6 red zone trips; Philly 4 of 8. The Packers get the red zone edge but this stat, among others, needs more data than 3 games can provide.

On the bright side, Philly's ball security has not been very good, 5 turnovers so far (2 picks, 3 lost fumbles) while not gathering many themselves on defense (3 picks, no fumble recoveries). Further, Wentz has been a sub-0.500 QB in starts over the 2018-2019 period, going 6-8 since combing back from that bad knee injury and then another season-ender. He hasn't had much winning mojo of late. The next Cousins? A big hat full of yards but not much cattle in the win column?

It's a little early to be doing this, but since it is a pivotal game and its Week 4 where trends start to solidify, I'll take a shot.

The Packers get the edge on turnovers and red zone. Philly's run D and the Packers dismal 3rd. down performance argues for another busy day for Scott. My sense is Philly covers the 4 point spread, the winner is too close to call, and the 48 over/under is also too close to call. In short, a close game without a fat point total on the scoreboard. I guess you could say my call is for a 23-23 tie in regulation with the game decided one way or the other by an ovetime FG.

I'm glad it is not the Rams. I did a like comparison, albeit on 3 weeks of data, and it is not very favorable.

 

[gbgary]

I'm sorry...what?

You think Hollman is our best press CB? Have you not seen Alexander play?

that's from one of the coaches during camp. he also said he struggles in zone. alexander is their best all-around cb. pro-bowler seems likely, all-pro (at least 2nd team) not out of the question.

 

[HardRightEdge]

I was at the stadium today. Place was crawling with Eagle fans. All were smiling and walking around looking about in awe, soaking in the atmosphere. Spoke to a few. Very friendly. Will see how long that lasts come game time.

Being from Philly, they'll probably be booing their own team if they fall behind early.

 

[HardRightEdge]

This game reeks of a trap game.

It's not a trap game because Philly is a pretty decent team, and well coached, despite the 1-2 record and a few missing pieces of their puzzle.

 

[GleefulGary]

that's from one of the coaches during camp. he also said he struggles in zone. alexander is their best all-around cb. pro-bowler seems likely, all-pro (at least 2nd team) not out of the question.

Nobody said Hollman was their best press corner.

Like I said, have you seen Alexander play? He's surprisingly good at misdirecting WR's off the line. Very aggressive.

 

[Do7]

It's not a trap game because Philly is a pretty decent team, and well coached, despite the 1-2 record and a few missing pieces of their puzzle.

I say this is a trap game BECAUSE Philly is missing a few pieces of the puzzle and are 1-2. They certainly are better than their record indicates. But because of the reality of where they are in right now we're the favorites going in and are expected to win. This is why I said this is a potential trap game.

 

[El Guapo]

This is a pattern verging on a trend that needs to be snapped.

Lots of good points. I think that the trend that you speak of is merely the newness of the offense needing the kinks to get worked out. Rodgers wearing the cheat sheet on his forearm is sure evidence that we aren't in a rut, but working on improving a new system. They will get there.

What worries me most about the Eagles is the playoff implications for them. If pundits are right and there is a good chance that both wild card teams might come out of the NFC North, then Philly needs to win their remaining games against GB, MIN, and CHI. Dallas will win the east so Philly has to snatch a wildcard spot from one of the NFC North teams. It's crazy to think about playoff implications now, but these head-to-head matchups will come back to haunt the loser late this season. Philly has extra incentive.

 

[Do7]

Lots of good points. I think that the trend that you speak of is merely the newness of the offense needing the kinks to get worked out. Rodgers wearing the cheat sheet on his forearm is sure evidence that we aren't in a rut, but working on improving a new system. They will get there.

What worries me most about the Eagles is the playoff implications for them. If pundits are right and there is a good chance that both wild card teams might come out of the NFC North, then Philly needs to win their remaining games against GB, MIN, and CHI. Dallas will win the east so Philly has to snatch a wildcard spot from one of the NFC North teams. It's crazy to think about playoff implications now, but these head-to-head matchups will come back to haunt the loser late this season. Philly has extra incentive.

It doesn't help that our division foes are breathing down our necks. I was honestly hoping they would be 1-2.

Detroit should've lost their last two and Chicago got bailed out against Denver. But I'd rather have Chicago win over Minnesota.

 

[El Guapo]

I can't remember which Packers podcast I was listening to, but they were discussing who we should root for in the Vikings/Bears matchup this weekend. One guy said hope for a series split. The other guy said to root against the Vikings both times. His reasoning was that our remaining Bears matchup is a home game in Week 15. Our remaining Vikings matchup is in Minneapolis in Week 16. His point was that the lesser of two evils would be to face a playoff-hungry Bears team at Lambeau versus a playoff-hungry Vikings on the road. Root for the Vikings to be out of the playoff hunt by then.

Interesting theory.

 

[HardRightEdge]

I say this is a trap game BECAUSE Philly is missing a few pieces of the puzzle and are 1-2. They certainly are better than their record indicates. But because of the reality of where they are in right now we're the favorites going in and are expected to win. This is why I said this is a potential trap game.

If we're talking betting odds and favorites, 4 points is a fairly slim margin. It equates to 1 point on a neutral field. I'm not seeing any trap here.

 

[Mondio]

I'm taking my brother in law to the game, he's an Eagles fan. I hope he has a miserable time.

The Eagles have a lot of talent on that team, neither of these teams is as good as they're going to be in November and both are capable of playing much better than they have.
Should be a good game, but with so much inconsistency in the beginning of the year and exhibited by both teams it's tough to call. Of course I think we should and will win. I think our defense will give up yards but contain points and create turnovers again. If our offense sputters it will be closer obviously, if they find they're groove this could get blown open.

 

[PackAttack12]

I wouldn't classify this game as a trap, but we definitely need to be able to match the energy and intensity that the Eagles will no doubt have from the opening kickoff. They know they can't go to 1-3 with the start that Dallas is off to, plus the Eagles' schedule gets brutal in the coming weeks.

The Packers have to be ready for the best that the Eagles have to offer with the players that they'll actually be able to put on the field. I was impressed with the effort and intensity against a Broncos team that knew they had to have that game, so that's a plus.

Regardless, even though the Eagles are a talented team, they are depleted, and a bit flawed in key areas right now. Match the energy and intensity and take care of the football, and we should be able to take care of the Eagles.

31-23 Packers.

 

[tynimiller]

I am just sitting here hoping and praying with Z Smith and Fackrell both listed as questionable Gary plays out of his mind if asked to play substantial more time...I feel we can absorb one of these two not going, but both....that would be a massive hit to the D.

 

[Poppa San]

This game reeks of a trap game.

Packers haven't been playing good enough to entertain the idea of a trap game. Trap games are when you have been dominating and overlook this opponent for the one next week or you have a let down from a rivalry game.

Final score: Packers 33 Eagles: 20

Defenses have typically dominated Thursday night games. 20-16 or there about. We'll be here tomorrow kvetching about the lack of offense yet again.

 

[Wi. Mike now in Florida]

This will be one of those games were our new coaching will have to shine by making
adjustments as the game goes on not like the McCarthy days.

Offense need to step up.

 

[PackerfaninCarolina]

I can't remember which Packers podcast I was listening to, but they were discussing who we should root for in the Vikings/Bears matchup this weekend. One guy said hope for a series split. The other guy said to root against the Vikings both times. His reasoning was that our remaining Bears matchup is a home game in Week 15. Our remaining Vikings matchup is in Minneapolis in Week 16. His point was that the lesser of two evils would be to face a playoff-hungry Bears team at Lambeau versus a playoff-hungry Vikings on the road. Root for the Vikings to be out of the playoff hunt by then.

Interesting theory.

Well I'm hoping for a tie between the two so that both their chances of winning the NFC North take a big hit lol.

Honestly, yes I'd probably hope for a Bears win here, and hope that Detroit gets Mahomed by a 30 point margin. Thing is though, with a rivalry like ours the Vikings would still come out fired up week 16 even if they were out of playoff contention. To them, they'd be eager to spoil our chances of getting a first round bye or possibly forfeiting the division if we haven't solidified it over the Bears yet.

At some point, I do believe we'll get our first win in that overvalued new stadium of theirs, but might need to hope the Vikes have really gone off the rails to get it this year.

 

[sschind]

I can't remember which Packers podcast I was listening to, but they were discussing who we should root for in the Vikings/Bears matchup this weekend. One guy said hope for a series split. The other guy said to root against the Vikings both times. His reasoning was that our remaining Bears matchup is a home game in Week 15. Our remaining Vikings matchup is in Minneapolis in Week 16. His point was that the lesser of two evils would be to face a playoff-hungry Bears team at Lambeau versus a playoff-hungry Vikings on the road. Root for the Vikings to be out of the playoff hunt by then.

Interesting theory.

In week 4 I will root for the Bears over the vikings 100% of the time. I wouldn't care if the Bears were 3-0 and the vikings were 0-3

[QUOTE="Poppa San, post: 845364, member: 2547"
Defenses have typically dominated Thursday night games. 20-16 or there about. We'll be here tomorrow kvetching about the lack of offense yet again.[/QUOTE]



If our defense gets us another win I'll be happy to wait another week for the offense to get rolling. Well, I may not be happy but I'll take it.