Unsung hero, Russ Ball

[Mondio]

They're going to push the cap limits more so now than before I believe to a degree, but I'm not sure we'll see the complete gutting of the team 5 years down the road like some teams do. and we've had a healthy cap for a really long time relative to much of the league. Success, and expensive QB's and healthy caps don't always go hand in hand in hand. Obviously we're not the only ones, and they haven't been perfect but they've been pretty good.

 

[HardRightEdge]

i'll agree...and if he's still here in 2020-21 he, or whoever it is, will be busy restructuring contracts (especially rodgers').
no doubt. that's why i said he needs to stay in his lane. i hope he moves on soon though. i just think there's a 666 birthmark on that guy somewhere. lol

When you start talking about restructuring contracts you find yourself trying to make the best out of a bad situation. There are two basic kinds of restructurings.

One is where you are, in affect, asking a guy to take a pay cut because his performance does not warrant his impending pay. This doesn't happen very often. The player has to agree to it, which is high hurdle to start with. And if he knows there's a sufficient amount of dead cap on his deal it is a non-starter. If memory serves, the only cases I can thing of over the last several years were minor downward adjustments with Hawk after 2011 and Crosby after 2012.

The other basic kind involves an extension to clear cap space, swapping out current salary (or in Rodgers' case roster bonus in 2020 since he has only a $1.1 mil salary that season) counting against the current cap in exchange for a signing bonus counting against the cap in future years.

If you envision Rodgers falling into the second category, there isn't any room for an extension. He's already signed out to age 40. If you envision him falling into the first category, whatever problems you're trying to address just got a whole lot worse.

 

[HardRightEdge]

They're going to push the cap limits more so now than before I believe to a degree, but I'm not sure we'll see the complete gutting of the team 5 years down the road like some teams do. and we've had a healthy cap for a really long time relative to much of the league. Success, and expensive QB's and healthy caps don't always go hand in hand in hand. Obviously we're not the only ones, and they haven't been perfect but they've been pretty good.

There is currently about $9 mil in cap space. That's fairly typical of the amount of holdback Thompson would have entering a season. What's different is the multi-year implications of the current approach. At no time did Thompson's cap commitments for a subsequent year exceed the current one.

In the final analysis, after all the wailing and gnashing of teeth over Thompson's reluctance to sign free agents, Thompson spent up to the limit. With cumulative cap carryover in play since the CBA in 2011, he left Gutekunst with something less than $10 mil in carryover in 2018. On average over that 2011 - 2017 period, Thompson spent on average all but about $1 mil in cap per year.

Again, the magic is in the players, not contract structures. Thompson didn't stack drafts, and the "sign his own" second and third contracts had too many disappointments. If Gutekunst hits enough doubles, triples and home runs on the players he's brought in, FA or in these two drafts, he won't need cap space for free agency next year. There are a few players that could be cut for cap savings if their replacements pan out, Sternberger-for-Graham, Jenkins-for-Taylor, to take two examples.

It is impossible to know where this team will be in 5 years. It could be a legit contender with a Mahomes-like QB at the helm with all the other necessary pieces in place or it could be a Kizer-like franchise-in-waiting in his first starting season along with other missing pieces and a 1-15 record. Thinking otherwise is simply wishful.

 

[gbgary]

When you start talking about restructuring contracts you find yourself trying to make the best out of a bad situation......

i'll take back my comments now what we know how the the smith's contracts are structured. they'll simply cut people to open cap space if needed. the front-loading of these contracts have made it possible to move on from both after 2 seasons if they need the space and/or have adequate replacements. not that they'd want to but they could even move on from rodgers after 2020 if the situation dictated.

 

[Heyjoe4]

It's kinda weird to be tooting your horn over somebody else's prospective opinion, not some confirmatory facts.

The gist of the article is that Ball contracts limit guarateed salaries compared to other teams' contracts (Rodgers being a noted exception), relying instead on signing bonuses as the enticement.

Well, there are no free lunches. Other concessions are made. Let's consider Z. Smith's contract.

$16.5 mil/year. Sure, he's a good player with positional versatility entering his prime. But there does appear to be a concession in total value.

In addition to the $20 mil guaranteed signing bonus, the $9 mil roster bonus on the 5th. year of the 2020 league year is a concession. There isn't any plausible scenario where he would not earn that bonus. Even if you were of a mind to replace him for the paltry $2.5 mil in cap savings you'd have to do it before the 5th. day of the league year, early in the free agency period and long before the draft. Then in 2021 a decision must be made with that $5 mil signing bonus also due on the 5th. day of the league year. Cut him after it comes due and the cap savings is a only $5.75 mil. Taking a retrospective example, Graham's bacon might have been saved this year by his $5 mil roster bonus under a similar structure albeit a smaller contract.

These league year signing bonuses have become a common Ball concession. They function as a deterrent to cutting a guy after FA is in full swing or after the draft where replacements would be found. If you cut him before the signing bonus is due you're operating largely blind.

And it is not like signing bonuses are some kind of free lunch. Building a defense (it doesn't even qualify as a "rebuild" since it has not been good for quite a while) through free agency, without a pile of cap space to start with, necessitates signing bonuses to defer the cap hit. That deferral hits the cap soon and hard in 2020:

https://overthecap.com/salary-cap/green-bay-packers/

Further, monster guaranteed salaries are going to franchise QBs and guys who put up All Pro years on their rookie contracts and command those guarantees as they enter their primes. We have not had those guys, Rodgers excepted.

The structure of the contracts is less important than deciding which players to sign and then whether they play up to or over those contracts. So far as I can tell, Ball has nothing to do with that, nor the approach to go heavy in FA in an attempt to "win now". Ball's job is to make the cap pieces fit.

All good points. It’s hard not to overpay in FA, and that becomes moot if the players perform up to, or ideally, past the expectations. All we can do now is wait. But if the Smiths don’t perform, or become the next comings of Nick Perry, then the Packers are in a world of hurt next off season. IMO, it was a worthwhile risk to sign these guys, and the defense itself is better with the newly upgraded S group. Stellar secondary play can make stars of LBs and DLs. Time will tell. But as for the topic, Russ Ball, I don’t see him performing any miracles with contract construction that helps if the worst case scenario comes true. The cap and the rules are what they are. As usual, it comes down to player performance, and the value derived from the off season moves. Gluten’s move were an acceptable risk, given the sorry state of the Packers’s edge rushing. Time will tell, as always.

 

[Heyjoe4]

i'll take back my comments now what we know how the the smith's contracts are structured. they'll simply cut people to open cap space if needed. the front-loading of these contracts have made it possible to move on from both after 2 seasons if they need the space and/or have adequate replacements. not that they'd want to but they could even move on from rodgers after 2020 if the situation dictated.

Yeah that’s a good point. If the Smiths exceed expectations this season, all will be well. If not, the team won’t have the cap space next year to make many moves. As you point out, that can be fixed in the second year of their contracts.

As for Russ Ball, I don’t see a case where he’s any better or worse than his counterparts. That’s not a slam, he has to work within the current cap rules and when money hits the cap. At any rate, the edge rushing unit needed a complete house cleaning, and that’s been accomplished. I’m hopeful that a solid secondary (including Amos and Savage) makes the job of the edge rushers easier, forcing the QB to hold the ball longer or throw it away. I thought Gluten took an acceptable risk with the FAs signed. Now it’s time to play the game and see how this translates to, hopefully, wins with a lot more TOs. And as for the OL, they’ll need significant contributions from Turner and Jenkins, and the rest of the OL has to be solid, and deep for the inevitable injuries. Like most others, I’m concerned about the RG/RT situation. I have a hard time imagining Bulaga playing all 16 games. Hopefully Turner and Jenkins provide, at a minimum, depth to the line. Ideally, they become starters.

 

[Heyjoe4]

i'll take back my comments now what we know how the the smith's contracts are structured. they'll simply cut people to open cap space if needed. the front-loading of these contracts have made it possible to move on from both after 2 seasons if they need the space and/or have adequate replacements. not that they'd want to but they could even move on from rodgers after 2020 if the situation dictated.

I forgot to mention your point on Rodgers. Hopefully he gets some protection and returns to his MVP ways. But unlike Brady, Rodgers has been injured more often. I hope that’s a matter of protection and not his body aging. It also points to the need to draft a QB next year.

 

[HardRightEdge]

i'll take back my comments now what we know how the the smith's contracts are structured. they'll simply cut people to open cap space if needed. the front-loading of these contracts have made it possible to move on from both after 2 seasons if they need the space and/or have adequate replacements. not that they'd want to but they could even move on from rodgers after 2020 if the situation dictated.

These contracts are not front loaded, quite the opposite:

2021 dead cap / cap savings:

Rodgers: $23.0 mil / $10.5 mil
Z. Smith: $10 mil / $10.75 mil
P. Smith: $8.0 mil / $8.0 mil
Amos: $5.5 mil / $4.55 mil

There's more cap savings with cuts at the beginning of the 2021 league year before roster bonuses come due, but then you don't know if you can replace them.

Regardless, there's a lot of signing bonus performance you did not get inbedded in that dead cap if you're ready to part ways after two years. Cap savings is the other side of the dead cap coin. The savings does not buy you players of the same caliber as is projected with these players under these contracts.

What you want is for these players to be worth keeping in year 3. If they are not then 2019 and 2020 probably did not work out so well. What about all the other positions given future cap constraints? If 2018 - 2020 drafts turn out to be stacked with good players the situation will be manageable. If not, then not.

But we're way out in front of the matter here. The takeways regarding this thread are:

• Gutekunst: "This is Green Bay, Wisconsin. It is always "win now".
• The roster needed rebuilding (or just "building" if you prefer)
• Doing that required diving into free agency.
• Given the cap space was decent, but not great, the cap consequences had to pushed out into the future with back loaded contracts to sign these players.
• Stacking good drafts compensates for other sins and it is very difficult to win without having done so, particularly when your franchise QB is not on a rookie contract.

 

[HardRightEdge]

All good points. It’s hard not to overpay in FA...

That applies to your own players as well as others. It's an auction process. If you sign a FA you more often then not are the highest bidder among 31 potential competitors. And if you are not the highest bidder because of some intangible factors, you'll still be pretty close to the top bid. There's a lot of room for error in paying top dollar.

Again, the magic is in the player selection, seeing something in projection and scheme fit, value that others did not when they did not top your bid.

 

[GleefulGary]

Nerds.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

Of course if Clark continues doing what he's doing, you'd rather not have him playing on that 5th. year option imbedded in the current 2020 numbers, so that's one place where any cut savings might go.

The Packers could reduce Clark's cap hit for the 2020 season by signing him to a long-term extension. Of course that would be another risky move by backloading the cap hit of his deal.

and we've had a healthy cap for a really long time relative to much of the league.

I guess Thompson's reluctancy to use free agency was a big part of that.

It also points to the need to draft a QB next year.

With Rodgers being under contract for another five seasons it would most likely be at least a year too early to select a possible replacement in next year's draft.

 

[HardRightEdge]

The Packers could reduce Clark's cap hit for the 2020 season by signing him to a long-term extension. Of course that would be another risky move by backloading the cap hit of his deal.

Assuming Clark keeps doing what he's doing, and the intent is to retain him past year 5, he wouldn't be asked to to play under the 5th. year option. And, yes, an extension would have to be backloaded, with the hit starting in 2021.

I'm disinclined to get into the cap details in any depth with 2 seasons in the interim, but the list of 2020 and 2021 free agents is pretty extensive. If the 2018 - 2021 drafts prove to have been stacked, there will be replacements. Don't then there won't.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

Assuming Clark keeps doing what he's doing, and the intent is to retain him past year 5, he wouldn't be asked to to play under the 5th. year option.

I highly doubt Clark comes anywhere close to playing under the fifth year option in 2020.

 

[HardRightEdge]

I highly doubt Clark comes anywhere close to playing under the fifth year option in 2020.

You could just hit the agree button.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

You could just hit the agree button.

Nah, I'm waiting on you doing it first

 

[HardRightEdge]

Nah, I'm waiting on you doing it first

I did. Yesterday.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

I did. Yesterday.

According to my alerts not with one of my posts

 

[HardRightEdge]

According to my alerts not with one of my posts

Josh Jones thread, post #249, 4:56 PM yesterday. You can go to your Personal Details page to see ratings received with a date and time stamp. Not that anybody should care much about such things. This ain't youtube where you can get paid to be liked.

 

[gbgary]

These contracts are not front loaded, quite the opposite:

2021 dead cap / cap savings:

Rodgers: $23.0 mil / $10.5 mil
Z. Smith: $10 mil / $10.75 mil
P. Smith: $8.0 mil / $8.0 mil
Amos: $5.5 mil / $4.55 mil...

maybe i'm using the wrong term. with these guys getting a big chunk of the their money (through big signing/roster bonuses etc) in the first two years of their deals i'm using that term. of course you want them to be great and stay longer but if it doesn't pan out they're not killed by it. if gary turns out to be a stud don't you expect they'd let one of them go sooner rather than later? as always it all depends on draft success.

 

[GleefulGary]

Josh Jones thread, post #249, 4:56 PM yesterday. You can go to your Personal Details page to see ratings received with a date and time stamp. Not that anybody should care much about such things. This ain't youtube where you can get paid to be liked.

I never knew this was a thing.

Nerds.

 

[HardRightEdge]

I never knew this was a thing.

Nerds.

"Likes" are not a thing people obsess over? What rock do you live under. There are youtube millionaires becasue they draw lots of eyeballs. But I'm probably not the best one to ask. I don't have any social media accounts except this one and at investing.com.

We heard your "nerds" the first few times. It's old. Nerds rule the world, dude, with a couple of notable exceptions that are not exactly doing a good job at it. The term stopped being an insult a long time ago. And just so you know, some nerds have actually played football.

 

[HardRightEdge]

maybe i'm using the wrong term. with these guys getting a big chunk of the their money (through big signing/roster bonuses etc) in the first two years of their deals i'm using that term. of course you want them to be great and stay longer but if it doesn't pan out they're not killed by it. if gary turns out to be a stud don't you expect they'd let one of them go sooner rather than later? as always it all depends on draft success.

Z. Smith, and eventually, Gary are going to take snaps on the D-Line. If playing well and healthy, there's no reason not to expect 75% snap counts out the Smiths and Gary. They should be on the field together quite a bit. You could see snaps where two of them are nickel/dime D-Linemen with Facrkell on the field.

Having signed these guys to second contracts, they'll still be in prime years in year 3. There's no reason to believe the Packers would view any of them as expendable if they play like core players these investments say they should be.

 

[GleefulGary]

"Likes" are not a thing people obsess over? What rock do you live under. There are youtube millionaires becasue they draw lots of eyeballs. But I'm probably not the best one to ask. I don't have any social media accounts except this one and at investing.com.

We heard your "nerds" the first few times. It's old. Nerds rule the world, dude, with a couple of notable exceptions that are not exactly doing a good job at it. The term stopped being an insult a long time ago. And just so you know, some nerds have actually played football.

First "couple" times.

And I'm a nerd too. I was more trying to he humorous than insulting.

 

[Mondio]

First "couple" times.

And I'm a nerd too. I was more trying to he humorous than insulting.

Do or do not, there is no try

 

[swhitset]

Josh Jones thread, post #249, 4:56 PM yesterday. You can go to your Personal Details page to see ratings received with a date and time stamp. Not that anybody should care much about such things. This ain't youtube where you can get paid to be liked.

Hey now there’s an idea lol.