Trusting in the Present Leadership

[tynimiller]

It was illustrative, not an all inclusive list. Point was only a handful of the youth players are likely to take a big step up in next few years. Rest already hit the peak or will wash out.

Being able to declare this in a definitive manner you do, you really should be paid millions by organizations....your crystal ball is amazing.

 

[tynimiller]

Being young has everything to do with future improvement.

The biggest gains that NFL players make are between year 1 and year 2, and then again between year 2 and year 3. With the exception of specialists and quarterbacks, players tend generally to be close to their prime by their 3rd year in the league.

Therefore, a roster that is stocked largely with rookies, one year vets, and two year vets has the highest upside because those "leap seasons" are still in front of many of their players.

Obviously the Packers will add a rookie class, but look at how many guys who played in 2024 are entering year 2 or year 3-- most of these players will be better in 2025:

-Emanuel Wilson
-Tucker Kraft
-Luke Musgrave
-Jayden Reed
-Dontayvion Wicks
-Malik Heath
-Jordan Morgan
-Lukas Van Ness
-Brenton Cox
-Karl Brooks
-Colby Wooden
-Edgerrin Cooper
-Carrington Valentine
-Evan Williams
-Javon Bullard (how in the world did you determine that we have seen the best of Bullard after one season??)

Then you have guys who are technically entering year 4, but who have only started at their respective positions for 1-2 seasons, which means there is probably still meat left on the bone:

-Jordan Love (QB primes tend to be in the 28-32 age range and Love is just 26)
-Rasheed Walker
-Zach Tom
-Sean Rhyan
-Kingsley Enagbare
-Devonte Wyatt
-Quay Walker

And then you have guys in that same phase who haven't seen the field much yet, but are in that window. Most of them won't become difference makers, but even one or two guys impacting the team from this group would make a difference towards improvement:

-Marshawn Lloyd
-Chris Brooks
-Ben Sims
-John Fitzpatrick
-Kadeem Telfort
-Travis Glover
-Jacob Monk
-Ty'Ron Hopper
-Kitan Oladapo

You then add a rookie class of maybe 9 guys to this group and you're talking about 55-60% of your roster being in this "improvement window."

TL;DR Version: Youth/inexperience is the best predictor of future improvement in the NFL; the Packers have tons of guys who will be on their 53 man roster who are young and have limited experience so far and they therefore have a ton of upward mobility.

Stop posting logic...it is not welcome here LOL

 

[Dantés]

IMO from your 1st list only half of those guys improved from last year to this year. IMO.

Wilson, Kraft, Van Ness, Cox, Brooks, and Valentine all took steps forward to one extent or another.

Morgan, Cooper, Williams, and Bullard were rookies so obviously they hadn't had the opportunity to improve from season to season yet.

Mugrave's season was largely lost due to injury.

That leaves four players-- the receivers and Colby Wooden-- who didn't make a notable jump. Maybe they won't, but they're all still in the career window where it's feasible to expect that they could.

 

[Dantés]

Many folks struggled to understand LVN and why he was a consensus board top 20 prospect - Iowa structures their starters different than ANYWHERE else. Seniority is actually valued there and is why LVN was NEVER the starter despite being their STUD off the edge.

I think most anyone who follows the draft read that about LVN. The problem, at least for me, was not that he didn't "start" but that he was under-developed as a pass rusher and (critically) has not made up that ground in his first two seasons.

 

[Dantés]

It was illustrative, not an all inclusive list. Point was only a handful of the youth players are likely to take a big step up in next few years. Rest already hit the peak or will wash out.

The problem with your argument is that it all hinges on your subjective opinion of the youth on the roster. It boils down to "I think __________ has peaked and won't get any better."

That's fine if that's your opinion, but the objective reality is that most NFL players who see the field make some degree of improvement over the course of their first three seasons in the league.

 

[Dantés]

A big part of what is missing in our analysis and concensus draft boards is character. What will this kid do once you hand him $3M? Will he work just as hard? Does he really love football or now that everyone is just as athletic and it's not going to be relatively easy for him, will he work harder? Or will he enjoy himself with things he only dreamed about affording?

NIL and the portal will help NFL teams figure this out a little bit more clearly than they used to.

 

[AmishMafia]

A lot of teams missed on Philly IDL from Georgia because of presumed character issues. It can work both ways.

I agree. My only point was, teams talk to these guys, their coaches, teammates, and others. We in the internetasphere and all these websites that publish ranking lists, for the most part, don't. We don't know what mental makeup these kids have and consensus draft boards may have some huge deviations.

 

[tynimiller]

I think most anyone who follows the draft read that about LVN. The problem, at least for me, was not that he didn't "start" but that he was under-developed as a pass rusher and (critically) has not made up that ground in his first two seasons.

Oh there is merit behind the argument of not believing he was worthy of the pick, shoot merit exists nearly across the board in truth. I was merely responding to what Sanguine said about experience and not having more snaps. Iowa is an enigma in how they operate.

 

[AmishMafia]

NIL and the portal will help NFL teams figure this out a little bit more clearly than they used to.

I was adding that to my post but ran low on time. NIL is keeping kids in school longer as well. I think NIL will help the quality of players and draft evaluations.

 

[Sanguine camper]

It was illustrative, not an all inclusive list. Point was only a handful of the youth players are likely to take a big step up in next few years. Rest already hit the peak or will wash out.

I think the guys who are like to wash out or have hit their ceiling are players that have either not shown any or very little improvement from years 1 to 3 or are fringe players shuffling between practice squads. Most of the Packers young players don't fit that description and some that do have the talent where a leap next year wouldn't be surprising such as Wicks.

Here are players where a leap is still expected even if it's modest. - Defense
Bullard
Williams
Cooper
Wyatt
Walker
Valentine
Oladapo
Cox

Offense
Tom
Walker
Wicks
Reed
Kraft
Love
Lloyd
Rhyan
Morgan

5-6 rookies from the 2025 class.
That's nearly half the roster and there are very few declining veterans like Kenny Clark that would offset the leaps that will be both large and small.

 

[Schultz]

Wilson, Kraft, Van Ness, Cox, Brooks, and Valentine all took steps forward to one extent or another.

Morgan, Cooper, Williams, and Bullard were rookies so obviously they hadn't had the opportunity to improve from season to season yet.

Mugrave's season was largely lost due to injury.

That leaves four players-- the receivers and Colby Wooden-- who didn't make a notable jump. Maybe they won't, but they're all still in the career window where it's feasible to expect that they could.

Fair enough. IMO Morgan needs to be added to the lost to injury list. Also IMO LVN went from the 1st floor to the 2nd floor of a 12 story building.

 

[Dantés]

I think about this statistically. The odds are very low that every young player on the roster improves to the point that they impact the overall 2025 team, but they are just as low that none of them do.

At RB, there will likely be three backs on the roster in the improvement window. I think there's a 20% chance that none of them improve to the extent of impacting the 2025 team, a 20% chance that all of them do, and 60% chance that just one of them does.

Tight end is similar with Kraft, Musgrave, and Sims.

At WR, I think there's a 25% chance that neither Reed nor Wicks take a step that impacts the team, a 25% chance that both do, and a 50% chance that one or the other does.

Same dynamic on the OL between Walker, Morgan, Rhyan, and Tom.

Same dynamic on the DL between Wyatt, Brooks, and Wooden.

Same dynamic at DE between LVN, Cox, and Enagbare.

Same dynamic at LB between Walker and Cooper.

Same dynamic at safety between Bullard and Williams.

Then you have the probability of Love continuing to grow at QB (or just stay healthy this season).

Then you have the contributions of another rookie class.

Then you have the contributions of a new free agent class.

And all of this on top of the fact that they won't lose a single player of any significance from the 2024 roster.

So I see zero merit to the contention that this Packers roster has hit its ceiling. I don't mean this personally, but it's one of the more backwards takes I've seen in a long time.

 

[tynimiller]

People comparing Gute's performance to a consensus draft board are missing the point...the consensus draft board is NOT the standard that the GM needs to be held to. Consensus draft boards are made up of guys making a tenth of what of Gute is paid for and Gute has, over his career, been pretty poor in the early rounds. He focuses on draft and develop to a large extent (though maybe that was just more a result of the team's cap situation) and he's very, VERY good at finding players later in the draft but that has resulted in a team with a bunch of good players and very few elite players. The last truly elite player that Gute drafted in the early rounds was who, Elgton Jenkins 6 years ago? There's no way to paint those results as anything but a massive disappointment.

While I understand the stance that GMs and such shouldn't be using consensus boards as their own - of course not, and I know from first hand war room folks of the past they don't. BUT, have you ever researched the consensus boards and how well they actually do and they're only getting better as many even weight their board inputs depending on who it is.

As an example I compiled just 2024 and 2023 consensus and actual draft....if tracking consensus board's top 40 only had 3 in 2024 get drafted outside the top 50, and in 2023 7 outside the top 50.

That's honestly better than I figured I'd find when your thought made me do this quick exercise.

You must be logged in to see this image or video!

 

[XPack]

The problem with your argument is that it all hinges on your subjective opinion of the youth on the roster. It boils down to "I think __________ has peaked and won't get any better."

That's fine if that's your opinion, but the objective reality is that most NFL players who see the field make some degree of improvement over the course of their first three seasons in the league.

Fair enough. I guess we'll find out next season!

 

[Sanguine camper]

As long as we are discussing leaps in ability, I think even modest leaps can potentially have the largest impact if the player is going from above average solid starter to pro bowl/all pro levels. Let's face it, the star players usually make the difference in the biggest games.

For the Packers, the potentially most important leaps would come from Love, then Kraft, Reed, Cooper and Williams. Those players could all potentially be elite if they take even a modest leap in ability. If they do make the leap, then the Packers would have Jacobs, McKinney, Love, Kraft, Cooper, Tom, Reed and Williams in the pro bowl/all pro status. Alexander and Clark are no longer in that range. Jenkins is truly an elite pass blocking guard but his run blocking would push him to a level right below elite status.

 

[rmontro]

For the Packers, the potentially most important leaps would come from Love, then Kraft, Reed, Cooper and Williams.

I think Love will almost certainly make a step up from this year's performance, barring some disastrous injury. Or maybe you would call it a return to form. But he has yet to play consistently well over an entire season.

 

[David Ciembronowicz]

Not to focus on QB alone as this team has a lot of open questions throughout the lineup, but, Love's record as a starter is a pedestrian 18-15 with GB. Going into yr. 6 (2020 draft) and 3rd as starter he has to be much better than what has been shown so far in his career. Not all on him as the rest of the Off plays their roles, but, he must be the leader, the one who sets the tone, sees and understands the Def, executes, makes the plays and holds himself and other accountable when a play goes south. Still don't know going into yr 6/3 if he is that "guy", Rogers was, Farve was, not sure about Love- time will tell.

 

[rmontro]

Not to focus on QB alone as this team has a lot of open questions throughout the lineup, but, Love's record as a starter is a pedestrian 18-15 with GB. Going into yr. 6 (2020 draft) and 3rd as starter he has to be much better than what has been shown so far in his career. Not all on him as the rest of the Off plays their roles, but, he must be the leader, the one who sets the tone, sees and understands the Def, executes, makes the plays and holds himself and other accountable when a play goes south. Still don't know going into yr 6/3 if he is that "guy", Rogers was, Farve was, not sure about Love- time will tell.

I agree with you, but Love's record is very similar to Rodgers winning record at that point, maybe even a touch better.

 

[tynimiller]

Not to focus on QB alone as this team has a lot of open questions throughout the lineup, but, Love's record as a starter is a pedestrian 18-15 with GB. Going into yr. 6 (2020 draft) and 3rd as starter he has to be much better than what has been shown so far in his career. Not all on him as the rest of the Off plays their roles, but, he must be the leader, the one who sets the tone, sees and understands the Def, executes, makes the plays and holds himself and other accountable when a play goes south. Still don't know going into yr 6/3 if he is that "guy", Rogers was, Farve was, not sure about Love- time will tell.

I find that as an odd take on things, drawing any real takeaways from a QB's play based on the teams record is just strange to me. Sure it is rare a team with HIGH level QB play are terrible, but we see yearly teams with QBs that are playing like a Top5 QB that have a mediocre or okay record...Joe Burrow this year anyone?

Love has in both his first two seasons of course not played flawless but he's been in the top half of the league in QBs for QB Rate and QBR...actually better than even the top half, he's been in the top dozen both years by two of the most widely accepted QB stats.

2024 - 12th in rate and 5th in QBR
2023 - 11th in rate and 9th in QBR

I did not go QB by QB but I don't believe there were more than 5 QBs the last two years that rated 12th or better in both those categories...I saw Lamar Jackson and Jared Goff as the only two that can claim that. Burrow...Mahomes....Herbert...Allen...all cannot claim that.



I mean let's look at some QBs and their first two years as a starter and team record - most are the considered best in the league but threw some big older names in too:

Aaron Rodgers 17-15
Sam Darnold 11-15
Jared Goff 11-11 (if you start at the year he started half the games) if first two full he was 24-7
Russel Wilson 24-8
Josh Allen 15-12
Lamar Jackson 19-3 (if you include the half year) 24-6 if first full two years.
Patrick Mahomes 23-7
Joe Burrow 12-13-1
Peyton Manning 16-16
Kyler Murray 13-18-1
Brock Purdy 17-4 (if including the partial year starting 5 games) or 18-13 if first two full years.
Drew Brees 10-17
Tom Brady 20-10
Mathew Stafford 13-16 (over his first three seasons starting 10 games then 3 then 16). His first two full seasons were his third and fourth seasons and he went 14-18
Ben Roethlisberger 22-3
Dan Marino 21-4
Steve Young - 3-16 (if first two years but the one was 5 games)...honestly he played so disjointedly check this out he was 15-24 over his first 7 years in the league...he then went 79-25 to finish his career.
Joe Montana 15-8 (one partial year) over his first four seasons that he started he was 18-15
Justin Herbert 15-17
Jalen Hurts 9-10 (if including 4 start season) first full two 22-8