Trading Aaron Rodgers

[tynimiller]

Rodgers seems to be doing just fine. How long ago were those broken collar bones? Also, didn’t he come back with a touchdown pass to Cobb against the Bears in the final game of the season after sitting out with a broken collar bone.

No one is stating he isn't good, shoot he was just the MVP - however saying he hasn't had any major injuries is just false is all.

 

[mongoosev]

I hope you're right.
But it seems since Rodgers and Favre have become closer friends, it feels like Rodgers has been acting more like Favre in his later years. Like Favre is whispering in Rodgers ear "they're not treating you right" or "yep, that's what they did to me".

No proof, just a suspicion.

Lol...was also just thinking this might become another Brett outcome.

 

[milani]

Ok, it seems that things are essentially settled for 2021-- the Packers are going to take one last run at the Super Bowl with Aaron Rodgers and a loaded roster.

But now that the deal is signed, we can see that things are decidedly unsettled for 2022.

Rodgers negotiated himself into a restructure that will force the Packers to do one of two things next offseason: extend him, or trade him.

To keep him as is would mean that Green Bay would have a 46M$ cap hit to work around, which is virtually impossible given the rest of the players on the cap. An extension could lower that number. But if he won't sign an extension, they would have to trade him. The acquiring team would get him for 26.5M in 2022, and the Packers would eat 26.8M in dead money (or they could spread it out if it's post 6/1).

So it seems that a trade is the most likely outcome. So my questions are: to whom? and for how much?

Who Might Pursue Rodgers?

-Denver Broncos: Obvious candidate in that they are in the AFC, have a lot of talent on the roster, and no prospects at QB.

-Las Vegas Raiders: Gruden is always eager to upgrade at QB, and if 2021 doesn't go well, he's going to be desperate.

-Indianapolis Colts: If the Wentz reclamation project blows up, they are going to be in the market for an immediate solution.

-Miami Dolphins: Tua would have to really bomb, but if that does happen, they may try to pivot to someone who can help right now.

-Pittsburgh Steelers: This doesn't really feel like a Steelers move to me, but they could easily be in the market for a QB.

-New Orleans Saints: Being in the NFC makes this less likely, but they are an aggressive FO with a need at the position.

-Carolina Panthers: Also NFC, but they have an aggressive, motivated owner and probably don't have an in-house answer.

-Philadelphia Eagles: Another NFC team, but one that could likely use a QB upgrade sooner rather than later.

-Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Again-- NFC, but if Brady retires and Arians wants to keep going, they won't want to go the rookie route.

-New York Giants: If Jones stinks, but the FO survives, they may be ready to take a huge swing on a guy who can save their jobs.

-Bottom Line: It is highly unlikely that all of these teams will be in on the Rodgers sweepstakes, but there are enough potential suitors that even if a few of them don't materialize, there will be real competition (which suits Green Bay very well). I would expect that there will be about three serious contenders for his services from the AFC, and that those will be the teams with a real shot. I'm sure that the Packers will entertain offers from NFC teams, in order to drive competition, but without ever seriously being willing to deal him within the conference.

How Much Might Rodgers Return?

-Matthew Stafford: The most recent touchstone we have for a franchise QB getting traded is Matthew Stafford. Stafford was traded in return for Jared Goff, a 2021 3rd round pick, a 2022 1st round pick, and a 2023 1st round pick. So how does Stafford's value as a trade chip compare to Rodgers'?

---Stafford: 33 years old, 96.3 Rating in 2020, 20M cap hit in 2021, 23M cap hit in 2022, FA in 2023
---Rodgers: 38 years old, 121.5 Rating in 2020, 26.5M cap hit in 2022, FA in 2023

So Stafford has the edge in value when it comes to age and control. He's 5 years younger, and the Rams acquired him with two seasons of affordable control, which allowed them to pick him up without immediately extending him. Rodgers will be significantly older and will have only one year of control for the acquiring team, which probably means that whoever trades for him will want to extend him immediately.

On the other hand, if Rodgers has a 2021 season similar to his 2020, he will be viewed as a much higher quality player. The gap might not be quite as massive as fans would think, because the league likes Stafford a lot more than the public, but it's still sizeable.

So given the balancing factors of Rodgers being older and less controllable, but still significantly better, I would guess that the Stafford haul is the floor of what the Packers could get for Rodgers-- two 1st round picks plus some extras. It could be higher than that, but I would be surprised if it turned out to be less than that.

Caveat: The one issue that I could see arising here for Green Bay has to do with Rodgers' willingness to sign an extension. If there are, say, five teams that are seriously competing to trade for Rodgers, that will drive the price up. But if teams will only trade for him with an extension in place, that could give him some leverage. If he says "I'm only signing an extension with Team X," it drives down the competition, and hence the price. Teams may still be willing to call his bluff, and he might have more multiple teams that he's willing to sign with, but that's one issue that I could see creating a problem.

You can throw the Gruden part out now. So could they extend him? How much does he have left now? I think Brady has helped market the new Just For Men line of QBs past 40. We might see a whole generation of 40-45 ers. That would hurt the job market for young QBs.

 

[realitybytez]

You can throw the Gruden part out now. So could they extend him? How much does he have left now? I think Brady has helped market the new Just For Men line of QBs past 40. We might see a whole generation of 40-45 ers. That would hurt the job market for young QBs.

imho, what is hurting the job market for young qbs is the fact that very few college offenses are pro-style offenses.

 

[mongoosev]

You know, Dantes, I don't see it any other way but to trade him if he doesn't win or at least go to a SB because Rod knows that he is getting old and any chance of getting better is very unlikely(unless uses Brady's recipe to make morning shakes and gets stronger bones) so if he does win he will extend and leverage his chances of negotiating to retain his services with another team. Either way he knows his time in Packer land is near it's end.

 

[milani]

imho, what is hurting the job market for young qbs is the fact that very few college offenses are pro-style offenses.

A lot of spread formations in the shot gun and rarely lining up under center.

 

[OldSchool101]

Regardless of variances in opinion on this matter, I think we all recognize how the NFL works in that they always want to be cutting edge into the future curve.

Rodgers is in somewhat of a catch 22 situation from a Salary perspective. He’s going to want his cake and eat it too. Plus he’s going to want your cake, my cake and and all the coffee too! I love coffee. That’s where I draw the line!

The only reason he’s in GB is because he had to be. Either that or he’d not only forfeit his salary, but he’d pay the league to sit out and his status would be frozen in that he’d earn zero accrued time for sitting out. Essentially it was either retire or play., that simple. He played a nice act about retiring to make himself feel like he had control, but he had zero control.

GB holds all the cards. I believe this was a well planned, minutely calculated move to get Jordan Love and formulate 2 options. The scenarios were played out 2-3 years into the future forward and backward to cover every scenario. Teams do this for a living and they never got caught off guard as to his reaction.

The plan is set in motion and the only logical out for Rodgers is to be traded (I’m just calling it as I see it) No way does GB sign him to his last league high long term deal. I’m not saying I disagree or agree with what GB is doing, I’m just stating what I see transpiring before my eyes. The part about priming the fan base for a major change has already been implemented. I doubt GBP would’ve allowed this fallout if they were going all in.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

Regardless of variances in opinion on this matter, I think we all recognize how the NFL works in that they always want to be cutting edge into the future curve.

Rodgers is in somewhat of a catch 22 situation from a Salary perspective. He’s going to want his cake and eat it too. Plus he’s going to want your cake, my cake and and all the coffee too! I love coffee. That’s where I draw the line!

The only reason he’s in GB is because he had to be. Either that or he’d not only forfeit his salary, but he’d pay the league to sit out and his status would be frozen in that he’d earn zero accrued time for sitting out. Essentially it was either retire or play., that simple. He played a nice act about retiring to make himself feel like he had control, but he had zero control.

GB holds all the cards. I believe this was a well planned, minutely calculated move to get Jordan Love and formulate 2 options. The scenarios were played out 2-3 years into the future forward and backward to cover every scenario. Teams do this for a living and they never got caught off guard as to his reaction.

The plan is set in motion and the only logical out for Rodgers is to be traded (I’m just calling it as I see it) No way does GB sign him to his last league high long term deal. I’m not saying I disagree or agree with what GB is doing, I’m just stating what I see transpiring before my eyes. The part about priming the fan base for a major change has already been implemented. I doubt GBP would’ve allowed this fallout if they were going all in.

In my opinion Gutekunst definitely mishandled the situation with Rodgers.

I might have been able to get on board if the general manager decided it was time to move on from #12 after some subpar seasons based on his standards instead of using a significant portion of the cap on an aging quarterback.

But if that was a possible plan all along what was the point of extending Rodgers in 2018 with him having two years left on his contract at the point??? Why trade up to select Love with #12 having four years left on his deal after making it to the NFCCG the previous season???

Gutekunst should have either committed to Rodgers long-term or at least don't make it more complicated to move on from him while looking for his successor.

Can't have it both ways.

 

[gopkrs]

But if that was a possible plan all along what was the point of extending Rodgers in 2018 with him having two years left on his contract at the point??? Why trade up to select Love with #12 having four years left on his deal after making it to the NFCCG the previous season???

This is what I think about that but I could certainly be way off base, and thrown out. They extended him in 2018 because they knew that when you draft a QB; you really don't know if he is the man for awhile. And of course they really did not know they would draft a QB. But if they did; they wanted Love to sit the bench for at least a couple years and they made the contract so that if ARod continued struggling; they would be able to get out of the contract in 2022. Obviously not before because of the structure of the contract. And in the event (which has happened) that Rodgers turned around his performances; they would have him under contract. And ARod probably wanted more money and to be paid like the highest paid QB. But I actually believe ARod wanted to be a Packer for life and it hurt him that a QB was drafted. I just don't think he should let that bother him so much. Just play your best and let the chips fall.

 

[realitybytez]

In my opinion Gutekunst definitely mishandled the situation with Rodgers.

I might have been able to get on board if the general manager decided it was time to move on from #12 after some subpar seasons based on his standards instead of using a significant portion of the cap on an aging quarterback.

But if that was a possible plan all along what was the point of extending Rodgers in 2018 with him having two years left on his contract at the point??? Why trade up to select Love with #12 having four years left on his deal after making it to the NFCCG the previous season???

Gutekunst should have either committed to Rodgers long-term or at least don't make it more complicated to move on from him while looking for his successor.

Can't have it both ways.

no doubt in my mind that gute mishandled the situation. i don't think it was just gute though. i'm fairly certain that murphy had his fingers in this pie.

 

[OldSchool101]

Gutekunst should have either committed to Rodgers long-term or at least don't make it more complicated to move on from him while looking for his successor.

There’s an offset. His value goes up tremendously under contract for several years because it allows the GBP to decide WHEN to trade him. It’s really not that difficult when your QB successor is paid a Rookie salary and the 26mil you do part with gets you 2-3 day 1 selections etc..

But if that was a possible plan all along what was the point of extending Rodgers in 2018 with him having two years left on his contract at the point???
I’d just point out that the FO didn’t have the luxury of knowing how Rodgers would finish the ‘18-19 seasons like we know now. His overall declining performance included 2 consecutive seasons of really just ordinary type play (25-26 TD’s and 62.0 passing with declining yardage also)

If you look back at Aarons portfolio in early 2020? he suddenly looked like a QB that very well could be in a slight decline. That coupled with what I truly believe was a college QB who had just slipped past his place on their draft board.

All that said, I think GM’s are looking to be innovative and prove to themselves that they can make what appears a controversial move if they see enough value. I’m pretty sure that our scouting group thinks Jordan has better potential than what you and I currently think.

Finally let me add I probably wouldn’t have went about it that way either, but it’s easier for us as layman to look back and make these evaluations later. The FO is having to do it in real time and all the while looking at their checkbook registry. Remember how much they had spent in 2019 Free Agency? That factored big time and we all pretty much wanted aggressive if I recall.
Well.. This is what aggressive looks like

 

[realitybytez]

This is what aggressive looks like

i have to disagree. aggressive would have been to use the top four draft picks to add players that could have helped the packers immediately to (hopefully) get them over the hump and past the nfcc game in 2020. drafting guys that you don't expect to play for a couple years or more is not aggressive imho.

 

[OldSchool101]

i have to disagree. aggressive would have been to use the top four draft picks to add players that could have helped the packers immediately to (hopefully) get them over the hump and past the nfcc game in 2020. drafting guys that you don't expect to play for a couple years or more is not aggressive imho.

However the actual definition of aggressive is “bold” and it’s synonym is “confrontational”(See Oxford Dictionaries)

Explain to me how your version of drafting at an “expected need” is Bold and confrontational?

It was so confrontational it’s got you so mad you’re not thinking straight.

 

[milani]

There’s an offset. His value goes up tremendously under contract for several years because it allows the GBP to decide WHEN to trade him. It’s really not that difficult when your QB successor is paid a Rookie salary and the 26mil you do part with gets you 2-3 day 1 selections etc..

But if that was a possible plan all along what was the point of extending Rodgers in 2018 with him having two years left on his contract at the point???
I’d just point out that the FO didn’t have the luxury of knowing how Rodgers would finish the ‘18-19 seasons like we know now. His overall declining performance included 2 consecutive seasons of really just ordinary type play (25-26 TD’s and 62.0 passing with declining yardage also)

If you look back at Aarons portfolio in early 2020? he suddenly looked like a QB that very well could be in a slight decline. That coupled with what I truly believe was a college QB who had just slipped past his place on their draft board.

All that said, I think GM’s are looking to be innovative and prove to themselves that they can make what appears a controversial move if they see enough value. I’m pretty sure that our scouting group thinks Jordan has better potential than what you and I currently think.

Finally let me add I probably wouldn’t have went about it that way either, but it’s easier for us as layman to look back and make these evaluations later. The FO is having to do it in real time and all the while looking at their checkbook registry. Remember how much they had spent in 2019 Free Agency? That factored big time and we all pretty much wanted aggressive if I recall.
Well.. This is what aggressive looks like

I would like to see it that way. But the chances of any successor to the Favre Rodgers era even nearing their performance is very slim. Now that does not mean you have to have a Favre or Rodgers to win SBs. It has been proven. This however tells us to work on building a SB team with the elements that can get you there in addition to a decent QB.

 

[realitybytez]

However the actual definition of aggressive is “bold” and it’s synonym is “confrontational”(See Oxford Dictionaries)

Explain to me how your version of drafting at an “expected need” is Bold and confrontational?

It was so confrontational it’s got you so mad you’re not thinking straight.

going all-in for an immediate shot at the big prize is more bold than drafting players you might be able to use later. although, i will grant you that the latter strategy is taking a bigger risk because it is foolhardy.

 

[milani]

i have to disagree. aggressive would have been to use the top four draft picks to add players that could have helped the packers immediately to (hopefully) get them over the hump and past the nfcc game in 2020. drafting guys that you don't expect to play for a couple years or more is not aggressive imho.

Right now I believe Cincinnati can be a SB contender if they build their team around Burrows. If he can avoid major injuries unlike last season I believe he has the best chance of any of the first or second year QBs to be a HOFer. And that includes the dude with the Chargers.

 

[OldSchool101]

going all-in for an immediate shot at the big prize is more bold than drafting players you might be able to use later. although, i will grant you that the latter strategy is taking a bigger risk because it is foolhardy.

Like I said. Two ways to look at it. From the perspective of a GM (which was my argument on his behalf, not my personal wishes) or eyes of us fans.

 

[mongoosev]

going all-in for an immediate shot at the big prize is more bold than drafting players you might be able to use later. although, i will grant you that the latter strategy is taking a bigger risk because it is foolhardy.

funny thing about it is Rod had another great year and that team had a chance but had to play stupid like they always do and got beat by Brady. Nobody to blame but themselves. They had the talent but just as always fkjlk it up when it counts.

But it's all in hindsight now. Personally it's time to move on from Rod despite what he does this year.

 

[milani]

funny thing about it is Rod had another great year and that team had a chance but had to play stupid like they always do and got beat by Brady. Nobody to blame but themselves. They had the talent but just as always fkjlk it up when it counts.

But it's all in hindsight now. Personally it's time to move on from Rod despite what he does this year.

We know it is going to happen. And get ready for a dry spell. We will look forward to playing the Jaguars then.

 

[realitybytez]

Personally it's time to move on from Rod despite what he does this year.

yep. after three decades of hall-of-famer qb play, can't wait to get back to the excitement of a mediocre quarterback.

 

[milani]

yep. after three decades of hall-of-famer qb play, can't wait to get back to the excitement of a mediocre quarterback.

Yes. Running the ball, draw plays, bootlegs, rollouts, quick sideline routes...And punts.

 

[mongoosev]

yep. after three decades of hall-of-famer qb play, can't wait to get back to the excitement of a mediocre quarterback.

Well.... you got a whole lot of lovin' coming your way.

 

[mongoosev]

We know it is going to happen. And get ready for a dry spell. We will look forward to playing the Jaguars then.

It will be worse than a married couples dry spell. If you know what I mean.

 

[rmontro]

yep. after three decades of hall-of-famer qb play, can't wait to get back to the excitement of a mediocre quarterback.

That's not a foregone conclusion. But I think we should hang on to Rodgers as long as we can.

 

[AmishMafia]

In my opinion Gutekunst definitely mishandled the situation with Rodgers.

I might have been able to get on board if the general manager decided it was time to move on from #12 after some subpar seasons based on his standards instead of using a significant portion of the cap on an aging quarterback.

But if that was a possible plan all along what was the point of extending Rodgers in 2018 with him having two years left on his contract at the point??? Why trade up to select Love with #12 having four years left on his deal after making it to the NFCCG the previous season???

Gutekunst should have either committed to Rodgers long-term or at least don't make it more complicated to move on from him while looking for his successor.

Can't have it both ways.

You are forgetting, Rodgers play was deteriorating after Gute signed him to the extension. Drafting Love only became the thing to do based on Rodgers drop-off. Gute could not have predicted that. And, IMHO, drafting Love was the wake up call Rodgers needed. Love on the roster is why Rodgers started to play better.

I think Gute did what he needed to do and has made good moves.