Trade Up Targets

[AmishMafia]

If I was a betting man, I’d wager that the Packers move up this year.

How far?

I think if someone surprising is there after 17(ish) we send a 3rd. Don't think we are using a 2nd. Around 25? Should be a good player. There should be some good players in the 3rd as well. You have to factor that in when giving those picks up. I think we have too many needs to give up too much.

 

[Thirteen Below]

How far?

I think if someone surprising is there after 17(ish) we send a 3rd. Don't think we are using a 2nd. Around 25? Should be a good player. There should be some good players in the 3rd as well. You have to factor that in when giving those picks up. I think we have too many needs to give up too much.

According to Rich Hill's draft chart, a middle 3rd should be enough to move from #25 to #17. Not sure if #88 would do it, but it would be close.

 

[AmishMafia]

According to Rich Hill's draft chart, a middle 3rd should be enough to move from #25 to #17. Not sure if #88 would do it, but it would be close.

I think the quality of the players in the 15 to 25 is less than normal years. I think the drop off from 50 to 100 is less than most years. Therefore I think you will see a skew in pick trade value from these normalized rules of thumb like the Rich Hill chart.

 

[OldSchool101]

I think the quality of the players in the 15 to 25 is less than normal years. I think the drop off from 50 to 100 is less than most years. Therefore I think you will see a skew in pick trade value from these normalized rules of thumb like the Rich Hill chart.

Exactly. Just for fun I’ve done hundreds of interactive Mocks across 3-4 Sites. I’ve went 3 primary Routes.
1. Stood Pat (40% of the time)
2. Traded Up (20% of the time)
3. Traded Back (40% of the time)

Within each method I’ve used dozens of derivatives. Many times I get caught in a worn hole by choosing a position that we have at high need and I love the player..but only to cross that same position at a better cost ratio a few picks later. My hypothesis is this happens regularly because certain players/positions that fit our team regularly cross our path due to supply and just plain relative draft neighborhood placement. I didn’t really realize it until I literally perfected a few hundred Mocks, but you learn quick after being burned on that a few times. I’ve even just stopped my Mock mid steam knowing this and restarted out of frustration because I already know I’m being led off a value cliff. The repetition might seem trivial to some in here. But it 100% gets you stronger at matching player/position/need/placement.

In my risk assessment across hundreds of Mocks (using multiple sites keep you honest because they value players differently) what I’ve learned is really do NOT be in a hurry to go after CB/RB/DL too early because those positions are thick mid draft AND they are regularly crossing our natural selections.
I LOVE addressing Guard around that 126 area. You also get a jump on those second/3rd tier OT using 88.91 because they often go 10-20 picks ahead of consensus due to global league positional value. So a LT rated 100-125 is gone by 105 overall if that makes sense?

One way to recoup your concern above is to trade back enough using 41 or 58 enough to recoup an extra pick from that 100-127 range. It’s stacked with players who match our need also. I do sometimes use a #255 packages or a future 6th Rounder etc. to attain that goal.

 

[OldSchool101]

I’ve also found myself focusing on either Edgerrin or Colson at LB. A choice of either of those 2 LB’s can be instrumental to our success now that Campbell is gone. Possibly even an upgrade. Plus we likely need 2 LB’s and getting 1 of them earlier allows us to wait until later in the draft to snatch another LB or bigger Safety who is well versed in coverage but is effective in Run Stop and can be effective in the Box. Savage could not do that and Amos was the last one who was good.. but not great he’d get washed out some.
I think 41 is too early for LB (just my opinion it’s a slight reach) but I’d absolutely take 1 of those guys if we traded back in they 46-49 area and got us an extra 4th. Then I can live with it. Now I’ve got my Premier iLB + RG using 41.

This also enables me to grab a bonus selection. IF a good TE or good WR is falling hard? Such as a top 75 graded player is in mid round Rd 4 sniffing our selection? I’m on him like flies on poop

 

[tynimiller]

I'll be 100% honest though, while I of course have guys I like at each level/round....the drop from the top CBs worthy of day1 consideration to day 2 is MASSIVE.

The only drop more severe IMO is from Cooper in off ball LBs to the next set.

Truthfully, I'd almost embrace Gute NOT drafting an off ball LB until the third and doubling up twice in third or twice within the 3rd and then another 4th/5th.....throw multiple darts at a position of low positional value except for the elite of the elite and focus more on CB, edge, OL and safety with other picks.

 

[Thirteen Below]

I’ve also found myself focusing on either Edgerrin or Colson at LB. A choice of either of those 2 LB’s can be instrumental to our success now that Campbell is gone. Possibly even an upgrade. Plus we likely need 2 LB’s and getting 1 of them earlier allows us to wait until later in the draft to snatch another LB or bigger Safety who is well versed in coverage but is effective in Run Stop and can be effective in the Box. Savage could not do that and Amos was the last one who was good.. but not great he’d get washed out some.
I think 41 is too early for LB (just my opinion it’s a slight reach) but I’d absolutely take 1 of those guys if we traded back in they 46-49 area and got us an extra 4th. Then I can live with it. Now I’ve got my Premier iLB + RG using 41.

You lkke any guard in particular at #41?

 

[Sanguine camper]

The problem

I'll be 100% honest though, while I of course have guys I like at each level/round....the drop from the top CBs worthy of day1 consideration to day 2 is MASSIVE.

The only drop more severe IMO is from Cooper in off ball LBs to the next set.

Truthfully, I'd almost embrace Gute NOT drafting an off ball LB until the third and doubling up twice in third or twice within the 3rd and then another 4th/5th.....throw multiple darts at a position of low positional value except for the elite of the elite and focus more on CB, edge, OL and safety with other picks.

The problem at ILB is one of quality and quantity. What happens if Walker gets hurt? Not a rosy scenario to contemplate. I think that forces Gute to reach for Cooper. I'd be OK with him at 41 but bypassing other positions of need to pick him at 25 would be a bitter pill to swallow knowing that the top remaining Tackles and CB's will probably come off between 25 and 41. Depth is a big issue at ILB. With this being a weak ILB draft, Gute's options will be more limited.

 

[AmishMafia]

Here is a possible trade up player: Dallas Turner. LB is our biggest need, IMHO. Turner is a near identical physically as Quay Walker, but is more talented in skill set. Walker on one side and Turner on the other could take the defense to another level in itself.

Did not see the Walker pick coming and it proves Gute values the LB position more than we thought. I always look at synergies. Putting a good player next to another player makes them both more effective. I would be on board with the idea.

 

[jetfixer]

Here is a possible trade up player: Dallas Turner. LB is our biggest need, IMHO. Turner is a near identical physically as Quay Walker, but is more talented in skill set. Walker on one side and Turner on the other could take the defense to another level in itself.

Did not see the Walker pick coming and it proves Gute values the LB position more than we thought. I always look at synergies. Putting a good player next to another player makes them both more effective. I would be on board with the idea.

Turner is a LB, but an Edge, not a LB in a 4-3.......someone correct me if I'm wrong.

 

[AmishMafia]

Turner is a LB, but an Edge, not a LB in a 4-3.......someone correct me if I'm wrong.

He is mostly listed as an edge, but that doesn't mean he can't play LB in a 4-3. Edge is more valuable of a position and so he is mostly considered there. At least 1 site lists Turner as the No. 1 LB in this draft (also #1 for edge).

 

[Schultz]

He is a DE/Edge who is very comfortable playing in a 2pt. stance. I could see him being used as an outside LB in some sets. IMO most teams look at him as a DE in a 4-3 and an Edge in a 3-4. My reasoning is I do not think he has dropped into coverage very much. IMO.

 

[Dantés]

We still doing this?

 

[Dantés]

This would be totally irresponsible and the wrong move and I would absolutely love it.

Trade: Pick #25, Pick #41, Rome Doubs

Receive: Pick #8

Draft: Rome Odunze, WR, UW-- the best prospect in this class

 

[Thirteen Below]

This would be totally irresponsible and the wrong move and I would absolutely love it.

Trade: Pick #25, Pick #41, Rome Doubs

Receive: Pick #8

Draft: Rome Odunze, WR, UW-- the best prospect in this class

Hmm...

Well... at least it gives us someone to talk about who's not named Cooper DeJean.

 

[tynimiller]

This would be totally irresponsible and the wrong move and I would absolutely love it.

Trade: Pick #25, Pick #41, Rome Doubs

Receive: Pick #8

Draft: Rome Odunze, WR, UW-- the best prospect in this class

Everyone knows I love Doubs, but I would support this trade....I'd beg for a mid to late Day3 in return back as well but still...

 

[Schultz]

For perspective, I know this is flawed but..............................based on the if you were GM thread.
Dantes would be trading Mims, Kneeland and Doubs for Odunze. Tyni would be trading Chop and Hicks plus Doubs. I would be trading the 2 Coopers, DeJean and Edgerin as well as Doubs. I don't think I could do it. Again, I know there would be no way of knowing if your preferred guys would be available at those picks, but this is what I found to work with.

 

[tynimiller]

This would be totally irresponsible and the wrong move and I would absolutely love it.

Trade: Pick #25, Pick #41, Rome Doubs

Receive: Pick #8

Draft: Rome Odunze, WR, UW-- the best prospect in this class

I’d do this same move for Quinyon as well. I believe he and Rome are that level of prospects.

 

[Sanguine camper]

Here's a nice pipe dream. Suppose the Packers take DeSean or Barten at 25 and the other guy is still there at pick 28. Trade picks 41, 88 and 202 to the Bills for pick 28 and then you have Barten and DeSean with 2 first rounders and still have picks 58 and 91 to go after a LB and RB. It's the day before the draft. A fan can always dream.

 

[Sanguine camper]

Stupid spell check switched Dejean to DeSean. You know what I mean above.

 

[tynimiller]

Here's a nice pipe dream. Suppose the Packers take DeSean or Barten at 25 and the other guy is still there at pick 28. Trade picks 41, 88 and 202 to the Bills for pick 28 and then you have Barten and DeSean with 2 first rounders and still have picks 58 and 91 to go after a LB and RB. It's the day before the draft. A fan can always dream.

I get the logic and he could end up being worth it, but I would rather have Jordan Morgan or Kingsley Suamatai over Barton any day of the week.

 

[Schultz]

Here's a nice pipe dream. Suppose the Packers take DeSean or Barten at 25 and the other guy is still there at pick 28. Trade picks 41, 88 and 202 to the Bills for pick 28 and then you have Barten and DeSean with 2 first rounders and still have picks 58 and 91 to go after a LB and RB. It's the day before the draft. A fan can always dream.

A lot would have to go right but this scenario is not totally impossible. Obviously all 6 QBs would have to go before 25. Bowers will go before 25. You are going to need all 4 of the Edge guys to go also. 4 WRs. That's 15. You will need the 4 top corners to go. Alt, Latham, Fashanu, Fuaga & Mims get you up to 24 players. Take DeJean at 25. If Pitt takes JPJ at 20 and or Fautanu is taken somewhere along the line that covers 27 spots and you are clear to draft Barton. If you get a team who thinks like Tyni about Morgan, Suamatia or even Guyton that leaves some margin in case all 6 QBs don't go. Add in a DL like Newton or Murphy and there is a path.

 

[Heyjoe4]

I’d do this same move for Quinyon as well. I believe he and Rome are that level of prospects.

You think Mitchell is a top 10 guy? I don't recall seeing any of the CBs mocked that high, but that's mainly to to the top 10 picks consisting of 4 QBs, 3 or 4 WRs, and Joe Alt. I think the CBs start to fly off the board after 10.

IF Gluten trades up, I think it's to get one of these corners. I think you said it - after the top 3 or 4 corners, there is a HUGE drop-off in talent at that position. I'd be ok with that trade, and I think he needs to get around 15 to get one of these guys. I don't think DeJean is worthy of a 15ish pick and he may very well fall to 25.

More likely IMO, he stands pat at #25 and takes an OT.

 

[PikeBadger]

You think Mitchell is a top 10 guy? I don't recall seeing any of the CBs mocked that high, but that's mainly to to the top 10 picks consisting of 4 QBs, 3 or 4 WRs, and Joe Alt. I think the CBs start to fly off the board after 10.

IF Gluten trades up, I think it's to get one of these corners. I think you said it - after the top 3 or 4 corners, there is a HUGE drop-off in talent at that position. I'd be ok with that trade, and I think he needs to get around 15 to get one of these guys. I don't think DeJean is worthy of a 15ish pick and he may very well fall to 25.

More likely IMO, he stands pat at #25 and takes an OT.

I'll be very nervous and somewhat disappointed if Gutekunst passed on DeJean and the Lions pick him. I'm thinking that could come back to haunt us.

 

[Heyjoe4]

I'll be very nervous and somewhat disappointed if Gutekunst passed on DeJean and the Lions pick him. I'm thinking that could come back to haunt us.

Yeah I've seen mocks where that very thing happens. DeJean is a very gifted athlete but there isn't much consensus on where he'll be drafted. As much as a T is needed, a solid DB is a higher need. If DeJean is there at #25, they almost have to take him. Overall the defense, and especially the secondary is much weaker than the offense.

I gotta believe there will still be a decent T left at #41 - or Gluten packages some of his 11 picks to get another bite in round 1. Just not sure if it's worth it.

I won't be disappointed if tonight ends with DeJean a Packer.