Trade Love now.

[GreenNGold_81]

First off, let me say I don't put much stock in the article, I think the author gave himself away when he was talking about click bait. However:

If you're wanting to get something substantial in exchange for Rodgers, the time to do it is sooner rather than later. There's a part of me that is curious just what he could bring on the market, and part of me also wonders how Rodgers would handle dealing with Belichick, and how Belichick would do with him.

One problem is any team you trade Rodgers to would likely have a pretty good record, so you wouldn't be getting a very high pick (or picks) in return.

But if a team had early picks they'd use them on a QB.

Rodgers probably nets us a 2nd rounder tops at this point.

 

[G0P4ckG0]

This is actually a pretty decent read on how the Packers could justify trading Rodgers before the third league day in 2021.

https://247sports.com/nfl/green-bay...e-could-come-sooner-than-you-think-147055106/

Pretty much exactly what I stated on Reddit within a few days following the draft...and got BLASTED for it

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

Pretty much exactly what I stated on Reddit within a few days following the draft...and got BLASTED for it

Well there seems to be 3 schools of thoughts from those speaking out against the selection of Love:

1. They don't like Love at all and don't understand why the Packers picked him.
2. They are fine with Love the player, but think the Packers jumped the gun and drafted Aaron's potential replacement too early and would have preferred the picks used on players of immediate need.
3. A combination of the 2, they don't like Love and they think it was a wasted pick.

I guess there could be a 4th school of thought. That particular poster doesn't think any pick that doesn't match up with their draft board is a bad pick.

All that said, maybe those not liking it for any or all of the reasons above, will be placated by the idea that Rodgers could be on the trading block as early as next offseason. As the article stated, if Love is a home run and you still get some decent draft picks for Rodgers, it would be a win win for the team.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

One problem is any team you trade Rodgers to would likely have a pretty good record, so you wouldn't be getting a very high pick (or picks) in return.

Much like the Packers records in 2017 or 2018?

 

[Deleted member 6794]

I can’t imagine a situation where I’ll ever like this pick, unless something totally freaky happens to Rodgers and Love becomes a star. I won’t hold my breath on that. It was and will remain a horrible waste of a first round pick.

I would absolutely love the pick if Love turns out to be the next elite quarterback suiting up for the Packers and would gladly eat a ton of crow for criticizing it. Unfortunately I don't expect that to happen though.

People focus on the dead cap number of 31 million or whatever it is but as the article points out it the savings of 5 million that matters. If the Packers keep Rodgers in 2021 the cap hit will be 36 million if they cut or trade him it will be 31 million. The numbers are rough but the bottom line is the Packers will have an extra 4.8 million to spend of they trade him.

The Packers saving some millions in cap space doesn't change the fact that they would have invested a large portion of the salary cap into the quarterback position which would make it extremely tough to upgrade the talent level on the rest of the roster.

If trading Rodgers was Gutekunst's plan all along it didn't make any sense to first sign him to an extension with two years left on his deal in 2018 and on top of it restructuring his contract at the end of last season to add even more dead money to it in case he is traded.

As the article stated, if Love is a home run and you still get some decent draft picks for Rodgers, it would be a win win for the team.

That's a gigantic IF in my opinion though.

 

[HardRightEdge]

This is actually a pretty decent read on how the Packers could justify trading Rodgers before the third league day in 2021.

https://247sports.com/nfl/green-bay...e-could-come-sooner-than-you-think-147055106/

Anything is possible, say a catastophic Theismann-like or Bridgewater-like injury to Rodgers in 2020. Or Rodgers misses a few games and Love wins those games. These are not likely scenarios. The fact the Packers converted $11 mil of roster bonus to signing bonus, putting more dead cap into 2020+ just this past December should tell you there is no plan to turn the page at this time. You have to be a Rodgers hater or click-baiter to not see this.

The likely scenario is Rodgers plays 16 games, or however many there actually are, Love remains an unknown quantity, and dumping Rodgers for a one year $5 mil in cap savings will not going to happen. Maybe Love gets a start in the last game after the #1 seed is locked up. Love would have to do something exceptional in multiple starts to make the 2022+ Rodgers cap savings attractive.

This is better viewed on par with the Patriots draft of Garoppolo in 2014. Brady was the same age as Rodgers is now. The Patriots had not won a Super Bowl in nine years, making two losing appearances. Perhaps the Packers might have gotten there a couple more times in the Rodgers era playing in a chronically sh*tty division like the AFC East and landing a couple more #1 seeds after 2011. Of course Brady won that 2014 Super Bowl and the clock was re-set.

While there is a lot of LaFleur and Gutekunst mind-reading going on, with a perspective in some quarters that the Packers are of a mind to re-form this offense into some version of the 2018 Titans, you're as likely to get Love as Mariotta-redux as anything else. Be careful what you wish for.

Anyway, when rumors had it that Kraft and Belchick were in disagreement over trading Garoppolo, with Belichick reportedly wanting to keep him, they could not have payed both. Kraft won out as of course he would. In this case, you better check with Murphy. He's still the uber-GM with Gutekunst, LaFleur and Ball still reporting to him. He's also the guy who negotiated Rodgers last extension going into the 2018 season. That was when a Rodgers trade would have been interesting as I said at the time, given his cheap years remaining before the extension and the picks that might have been landed in trade.

Maybe Gutekunst and LaFleur were not happy about more backloading of Rodgers cap last Decenber. Or maybe not. Maybe this is more about having a back-up in training, a replacement for some future undeterminable date, a RB to replace the incumbents heading to free agency, and a desire to use more, or more effective, lead back run sets with that 3rd. round pick. Mind read that, and the draft value of those picks in that scenario.

Well there seems to be 3 schools of thoughts from those speaking out against the selection of Love:

1. They don't like Love at all and don't understand why the Packers picked him.
2. They are fine with Love the player, but think the Packers jumped the gun and drafted Aaron's potential replacement too early and would have preferred the picks used on players of immediate need.
3. A combination of the 2, they don't like Love and they think it was a wasted pick.

There's at least a 4th. No problem with drafting a developmental/backup QB, Love's a decent prospect and fits the bill, but he's a poor draft value.

His fall-off in his performance from 2018 to 2019 could be accounted for in the turnover of starters in his 2019 offense, 9 players I think it was. He was playing under a new OC. I've seen it mentioned that a new Utah State OC in 2019 = new system, but that was not the case. Let's stick with the graduation rate.

https://usustatesman.com/utah-state-football-fall-camp-mike-sanford-jr-offensive-coordinator/

That was the Mountain West, however, with a 2018 schedule that looked like this:

https://utahstateaggies.com/sports/football/schedule/2018

Love has the physical tools, but there isn't much evidence that the more important mental aspect of the game is sufficient with this serious step-up in competition and speed of the game.

I would not have had a problem if they took him or in the 3rd. round, or Hurts at that spot, instead of a glorified fullback. These players were not be available at that spot, one would say? Well, tough. Go with Fromm in the 4th, not the physical specimen one would prefer but purportedly a guy with a high football IQ having played against top competition.

Having watched Josh Allen several times the last couple of years with Buffalo, my local market team, he's in need of a breakout in year 3. Take away the running ability and he's not the much of a QB despite that 70 yard arm, size and productive legs, evidence to date saying he's not the sharpest knife in the drawer as football IQ goes. There is a litany of first round "franchise of the future" QBs who fit this profile but did not work out. It is more likely Love will be next on that list as anything else.

I think the odds of Fromm gettig off the bench for a start in front of a heathly Allen in 2021 is greater than the Packers parting ways with Rodgers after 2020. This is by way of saying the echo chamber and click-bait purveyors don't find much drama in that story, without a peep in the local press about what's wrong with Josh Allen in a place where getting to the playoffs requires looking past what might be rotten in Denmark.

 

[rmontro]

Much like the Packers records in 2017 or 2018?

If the front office thinks Rodgers is a broken down old athlete who won't be able to stay healthy moving forward, the trade theory makes more sense. But it might benefit Love to sit and learn for at least a season.

Funny how this thread has gone from being about trading Love to trading Rodgers.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

If the front office thinks Rodgers is a broken down old athlete who won't be able to stay healthy moving forward, the trade theory makes more sense. But it might benefit Love to sit and learn for at least a season.

Funny how this thread has gone from being about trading Love to trading Rodgers.

I haven't seen anyone talk, at least straight faced, about trading Rodgers right now, thus not giving Love at least one season to sit and learn.

LOL on the conversation shifting to the possibility of trading Rodgers. You are right. I think the potential for a Rodgers trade is being discussed as another option, because it would be a legitimate possibility if things fall a certain way. Which was my point. the Packers may have provided themselves some future options at the most important and expensive position in Football.

Also, I do not think anyone views Rodgers as a broken down QB that won't be able to stay healthy, but he will be 37 in Dec., so nothing too wrong with providing yourself some potential options. As many have pointed out, the great Bill Belichick did the same thing when he drafted Jimmy G in the second round of the 2014 draft.

 

[sschind]

The Packers saving some millions in cap space doesn't change the fact that they would have invested a large portion of the salary cap into the quarterback position which would make it extremely tough to upgrade the talent level on the rest of the roster.

If trading Rodgers was Gutekunst's plan all along it didn't make any sense to first sign him to an extension with two years left on his deal in 2018 and on top of it restructuring his contract at the end of last season to add even more dead money to it in case he is traded.



That's a gigantic IF in my opinion though.

We signed Rodgers to his deal and we drafted Love nothing will change that fact so IMO there is no sense harping on it.

 

[Dantés]

If Rodgers has a good season, and the staff feels that Love is ready to start in year 2, the FO could have a very interesting decision on their hands.

I am working with the assumption that unless he's just a total bust, Love is the guy starting in 2022. I don't believe they would draft a QB in the first round and sit him for three years. I say that with full understanding that Rodgers sat three seasons, but I'm just giving my opinion that it won't be the case this time.

So what if a team wants to give up a really nice haul for Rodgers? What if someone offered a 1st and a 2nd, a la the Carson Palmer trade? If the FO has plans to give the reigns to Love in 2022 regardless, then does it make sense to pass on that kind of draft capital, even if it means eating a huge chunk of dead money?

In this hypothetical, you'd have the full benefit of a starting QB on his rookie deal in 2022-2023, with the ability to build around him more extensively in FA, and the ability to invest more around him with draft capital. That would be pretty alluring, despite the costs associated with moving on from Rodgers early.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

If Rodgers has a good season, and the staff feels that Love is ready to start in year 2, the FO could have a very interesting decision on their hands.

I am working with the assumption that unless he's just a total bust, Love is the guy starting in 2022. I don't believe they would draft a QB in the first round and sit him for three years. I say that with full understanding that Rodgers sat three seasons, but I'm just giving my opinion that it won't be the case this time.

So what if a team wants to give up a really nice haul for Rodgers? What if someone offered a 1st and a 2nd, a la the Carson Palmer trade? If the FO has plans to give the reigns to Love in 2022 regardless, then does it make sense to pass on that kind of draft capital, even if it means eating a huge chunk of dead money?

In this hypothetical, you'd have the full benefit of a starting QB on his rookie deal in 2022-2023, with the ability to build around him more extensively in FA, and the ability to invest more around him with draft capital. That would be pretty alluring, despite the costs associated with moving on from Rodgers early.

Yup, like we have been talking about....options are always good. If the Packers hunch on Love turns out to be true, those options could all be pretty good ones. I love #12, but its a business and if Love does look like the real deal, whether its in 2021 or 2022, the best move for the team is to get as much as they can for #12 and move forward. If they eventually do trade Rodgers, let's hope its for more than the conditional pick that they got for Favre from the Jets. That pick ended up being a third-round pick (83rd overall). Of course they did package that with a few other picks to allow them to move back into the first round and grab Clay Matthews.

 

[Sunshinepacker]

But if a team had early picks they'd use them on a QB.

Rodgers probably nets us a 2nd rounder tops at this point.

I mean, whatever team Rodgers ended up on wouldn't have the vast majority of his salary on their cap, so they'd be getting Rodgers for just a little bit more than a rookie would cost. I could see a team that's good everywhere but QB offering a first round pick.

Either way though, no way the Packers would make that trade because it would trash their salary cap.

 

[GreenNGold_81]

I mean, whatever team Rodgers ended up on wouldn't have the vast majority of his salary on their cap, so they'd be getting Rodgers for just a little bit more than a rookie would cost. I could see a team that's good everywhere but QB offering a first round pick.

Either way though, no way the Packers would make that trade because it would trash their salary cap.

No it wouldn't, if traded next year we free up 5 mill (and eat like 30 mill) and then correct me if I'm wrong, but he'd be off the books so we'd have Love cheap thereafter for 3 years giving a ton of cap availability.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

No it wouldn't, if traded next year we free up 5 mill (and eat like 30 mill) and then correct me if I'm wrong, but he'd be off the books so we'd have Love cheap thereafter for 3 years giving a ton of cap availability.

It would only be 2 years of having Love on his rookie deal (excluding 5th year option) and no Rodgers on the books.

Unless the Packers tear up his rookie deal, Love will be the same price, for 4 years, we know that already. So people saying that he could be cheap aren't thinking about it in the right way IMO. Now if you say "We Trade Rodgers at the end of 2020 and absorb the cap hit, than starting in 2022, the QB position is one that is "cheap" for the Packers.", you are viewing it in the right light.

 

[RRyder]

If the front office thinks Rodgers is a broken down old athlete who won't be able to stay healthy moving forward, the trade theory makes more sense. But it might benefit Love to sit and learn for at least a season.

Funny how this thread has gone from being about trading Love to trading Rodgers.

In fairness the idea of trading Love right now is just a knee jerk reaction by posters that didn't like the pick.

The idea of trading Rodgers within the next two years can actually be considered possible if not probable

 

[RRyder]

I mean, whatever team Rodgers ended up on wouldn't have the vast majority of his salary on their cap, so they'd be getting Rodgers for just a little bit more than a rookie would cost. I could see a team that's good everywhere but QB offering a first round pick.

Either way though, no way the Packers would make that trade because it would trash their salary cap.

Not really. The only part of his cap number that would be subtracted from his cap number is the prorated signing bonus. Whatever workout, roster or incentive bonuses that haven't been paid yet along with the base salary are still going to count against the new teams cap

 

[OldSchool101]

It would only be 2 years of having Love on his rookie deal (excluding 5th year option) and no Rodgers on the books.

Unless the Packers tear up his rookie deal, Love will be the same price, for 4 years, we know that already. So people saying that he could be cheap aren't thinking about it in the right way IMO. Now if you say "We Trade Rodgers at the end of 2020 and absorb the cap hit, than starting in 2022, the QB position is one that is "cheap" for the Packers.", you are viewing it in the right light.

This may be a dumb question but if it was a trade after 2020, wouldn’t his new team have to fulfill his contract (guarantee, salary, dead $ etc.. ) in a full transfer? Meaning wouldn’t we be free n clear of Rodgers monetarily?

 

[I asked LT to delete my acct]

I can only hope Love doesn`t read the forums. The organisation are clearly keen on him, he must have something they see, but the fans don`t rate him and wish we hadn`t signed him. It`s hardly going to motivate him. I`d be mad as hell myself.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

This may be a dumb question but if it was a trade after 2020, wouldn’t his new team have to fulfill his contract (guarantee, salary, dead $ etc.. ) in a full transfer? Meaning wouldn’t we be free n clear of Rodgers monetarily?

No. Once you sign a player and give him guarantees and/or signing bonuses, those are on you. Even if you cut or traded him a day later. I like the sight below, others use another one (overthecap). The money has already been given to Rodgers, it isn't money he is given each year or after he is traded. The NFL just allows you to spread a bonus/guarantee out over the life of the contract, since you are paying a little extra for each year.

https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/green-bay-packers/aaron-rodgers-3745/

If you look at the dead cap, that is a declining number starting at the full amount in year 2018 and slowly declining. That amount is on the Packers, dead means dead....they have to report it on the cap each year while Rodgers is on the team and if he is cut or traded, it is all reported for that year, except a post June 1st move can be split equally between the present and next year.

 

[OldSchool101]

No. Once you sign a player and give him guarantees and/or signing bonuses, those are on you. Even if you cut or traded him a day later. I like the sight below, others use another one (overthecap). The money has already been given to Rodgers, it isn't money he is given each year or after he is traded. The NFL just allows you to spread a bonus/guarantee out over the life of the contract, since you are paying a little extra for each year.

https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/green-bay-packers/aaron-rodgers-3745/

If you look at the dead cap, that is a declining number starting at the full amount in year 2018 and slowly declining. That amount is on the Packers, dead means dead....they have to report it on the cap each year while Rodgers is on the team and if he is cut or traded, it is all reported for that year, except a post June 1st move can be split equally between the present and next year.

Ok thnx. So in 2022 another team would get a steal at 25mil right ? But GB would take a $17mil hit?

 

[RRyder]

No. Once you sign a player and give him guarantees and/or signing bonuses, those are on you. Even if you cut or traded him a day later. I like the sight below, others use another one (overthecap). The money has already been given to Rodgers, it isn't money he is given each year or after he is traded. The NFL just allows you to spread a bonus/guarantee out over the life of the contract, since you are paying a little extra for each year.

https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/green-bay-packers/aaron-rodgers-3745/

If you look at the dead cap, that is a declining number starting at the full amount in year 2018 and slowly declining. That amount is on the Packers, dead means dead....they have to report it on the cap each year while Rodgers is on the team and if he is cut or traded, it is all reported for that year, except a post June 1st move can be split equally between the present and next year.

It should be noted its not ALL the guarenteed parts of a contract that are on the team trading a player. Its the guarenteed money that has allready been paid and/or prorated that gets excellerated and left off the players cap number on his new team. In other words guarenteed money that has yet to be paid is still on his new team

Admiteditly that distinction normally doesn't matter in a offseason trade cause normally you're only talking about the prorated signing bonus as the guaranteed money that will be excellerated for the following year as there's guarenteed money that hasn't been paid yet in the form of workout/roster bonuses etc etc

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

guarenteed money that hasn't been paid yet in the form of workout/roster bonuses etc etc

In a trade yes, those guarantees go with the contract. However, if the player is cut, those are not owed or paid by his former team or any team that signs him to a new contract.

That said, recently the Packers converted $14.26 million of Rodger's future roster bonus's to guaranteed money. That amount to be spread over 5 years of his contract, including 2019. The move increased Rodgers 2019 salary cap charge by $2.852 million and decreased his cap charge by $11.408 million in 2020. So I believe that number was added to the dead cap

I by no means consider myself an expert on NFL contracts, there are a lot of layers to them. The long and the short is, its not just a "we can cut or trade this player and his numbers come off the books immediately".

Ok thnx. So in 2022 another team would get a steal at 25mil right ? But GB would take a $17mil hit?

I believe so, yes.

 

[Sunshinepacker]

No it wouldn't, if traded next year we free up 5 mill (and eat like 30 mill) and then correct me if I'm wrong, but he'd be off the books so we'd have Love cheap thereafter for 3 years giving a ton of cap availability.

I was referring to the team that traded for him. They wouldn't be have to count any of his signing bonus on their salary cap, it would just be whatever his base salary was each year.

 

[Sunshinepacker]

I'm just shocked that so many people seem okay with the idea of trading the starting QB from a 13-3 team for an unknown rookie who has a lot of potential but is VERY raw. Why are fans so excited to take a step backward rather than just tread water until Rodgers leaves in 3 years?

 

[Mondio]

I'm just shocked that so many people seem okay with the idea of trading the starting QB from a 13-3 team for an unknown rookie who has a lot of potential but is VERY raw. Why are fans so excited to take a step backward rather than just tread water until Rodgers leaves in 3 years?

I don't think anybody is excited by it. Seeing the reason in something instead of knee jerking all over how stupid it was is far different than being Giddy about it. Outside of those who love to hate on Rodgers, I don't see anybody that didn't "want" someone else, but are learning to live with it, because it's not an entirely stupid decision. in fact it makes sense in a lot of ways if he is what they obviously think he is.