Tracking the #1 seed

[gopkrs]

You pointed out Dallas' division sucks. I pointed out the Packers division equally sucks.

And cut the Covid crap. A year ago I sat in my dad's hospital room while he ate, watching and discussing whatever game was on that day. Eagles I recall. No brain fog. Cracking jokes, teasing the nursing staff. 16 hours later he passed on to a better world.

I definitely had short term (very short term) memory problems when I had it and for a month after and...what was I saying?

 

[ARPackFan]

Obviously, the next two games for the Packers may prove critical. 4 of the teams (Packers, Cardinals, Cowboys, & Saints) may all be playing with backup QBs this weekend.

 

[Schultz]

Look dude I referenced the Cowboys division sucking as my reason for my believing they had the easiest schedule left of the teams competing with the Packers for the #1 seed. The Packers are not competing with the Packers for the #1 seed so whether their division sucks or not (you are correct it does) is irrelevant in this particular discussion. That is all I am trying to say. As far as the other thing I gotcha.

On the serious side I am very sorry for your loss.

 

[milani]

You pointed out Dallas' division sucks. I pointed out the Packers division equally sucks.

And cut the Covid crap. A year ago I sat in my dad's hospital room while he ate, watching and discussing whatever game was on that day. Eagles I recall. No brain fog. Cracking jokes, teasing the nursing staff. 16 hours later he passed on to a better world.

I think the Packers division is slightly better. The Vikings are better than the other 3 in Dallas' division. With some better coaching they could actually be 7-0 or 6-1.

 

[milani]

Obviously, the next two games for the Packers may prove critical. 4 of the teams (Packers, Cardinals, Cowboys, & Saints) may all be playing with backup QBs this weekend.

Good point. Now MM felt that Dak was ready to go. But we will see.

 

[El Guapo]

I think the Packers division is slightly better. The Vikings are better than the other 3 in Dallas' division. With some better coaching they could actually be 7-0 or 6-1.

The Vikings have been close in every game. They lack the killer instinct to close out games. It starts with the coach (who I like but has proven to not be the right guy), goes straight to the QB, and on down the line. The Vikings will be a tough game and for the Packers and I expect to lose one of our games against them.

......queue up Raptorman, who has some sort of homing beacon that brings him here anytime his purple & gold are discussed!

 

[milani]

The Vikings have been close in every game. They lack the killer instinct to close out games. It starts with the coach (who I like but has proven to not be the right guy), goes straight to the QB, and on down the line. The Vikings will be a tough game and for the Packers and I expect to lose one of our games against them.

......queue up Raptorman, who has some sort of homing beacon that brings him here anytime his purple & gold are discussed!

They may have lost this last one because their coach called a timeout during a timeout. Amazing.

 

[El Guapo]

You're right.

Denny Green was run out of Minnesota because of poor clock management, even though he brought them the most success since Bud Grant in the 70s. The Vikings would be better if Zimmer were the DC with an offensive minded head coach, or if he allowed the OC to make all of the clock management decisions.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

Look dude I referenced the Cowboys division sucking as my reason for my believing they had the easiest schedule left of the teams competing with the Packers for the #1 seed. The Packers are not competing with the Packers for the #1 seed so whether their division sucks or not (you are correct it does) is irrelevant in this particular discussion.

Remaining strength of schedule based on remaining opponents current records:

Tampa Bay .443
Green Bay .464
Arizona .465
Dallas .481
New Orleans .513
LA Rams .567

Despite the Cowboys playing in a bad division they don't have the easiest remaining schedule of the teams competing for the #1 seed.

 

[Schultz]

IMO they do. A team's winning pct. does not necessarily tell you how good or bad they are now. Injuries change things. The Packers should not be on this list. They are not going to lose the#1 seed to themselves.

 

[milani]

Remaining strength of schedule based on remaining opponents current records:

Tampa Bay .443
Green Bay .464
Arizona .465
Dallas .481
New Orleans .513
LA Rams .567

Despite the Cowboys playing in a bad division they don't have the easiest remaining schedule of the teams competing for the #1 seed.

The Cowboys could lose 8 of their last 9 games and still have a shot at winning that division. The Packers could not.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

IMO they do. A team's winning pct. does not necessarily tell you how good or bad they are now. Injuries change things. The Packers should not be on this list. They are not going to lose the#1 seed to themselves.

Strength of schedule isn't a perfect metric to evaluate the remaining opponents but it's better than you proclaiming the Cowboys having the easiest schedule because their division sucks.

You have brought that up on several occasions but it doesn't make any sense to ignore the Packers remaining schedule.

The Cowboys could lose 8 of their last 9 games and still have a shot at winning that division. The Packers could not.

That has no bearing on which team ends up with the #1 seed in the NFC though.

 

[milani]

Strength of schedule isn't a perfect metric to evaluate the remaining opponents but it's better than you proclaiming the Cowboys having the easiest schedule because their division sucks.

You have brought that up on several occasions but it doesn't make any sense to ignore the Packers remaining schedule.



That has no bearing on which team ends up with the #1 seed in the NFC though.

No. But playoff seeding is deceiving. To be a # 1 seed you have to win your division and have a better record than any other division winner. An 8-8 division winner can finish higher than a 13-3 second place team. I think what he is saying not just based on current schedules is that the Boys have a better ride. They will definitely go 6-0 in their division. We might but we could lose one or two. The Vikings are a better team than their record. And they could wake up any time. The Boys just went into Minnesota and won with their back up. Can we do the same in KC? How.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

No. But playoff seeding is deceiving. To be a # 1 seed you have to win your division and have a better record than any other division winner. An 8-8 division winner can finish higher than a 13-3 second place team. I think what he is saying not just based on current schedules is that the Boys have a better ride. They will definitely go 6-0 in their division. We might but we could lose one or two. The Vikings are a better team than their record. And they could wake up any time. The Boys just went into Minnesota and won with their back up. Can we do the same in KC? How.

Once again, according to strength of schedule the Packers have an easier path to securing the #1 seed than the Cowboys.

While both teams could win their remaining games within the division it's not a given for either one. In addition they have more games left against opponents outside their division.

I don't expect the Packers to win at KC with Love starting but there's a chance for it to happen.

 

[Poppa San]

Remaining strength of schedule based on remaining opponents current records:

I never liked the "add up wins and losses" method of strength of schedule but I can't recall an alternative. Who has a better chance of winning the next four games: four games against 4-4 teams or 7-1; 6-2; 1-7; 0-8? The first has a tougher SoS.

I think the Packers division is slightly better. The Vikings are better than the other 3 in Dallas' division. With some better coaching they could actually be 7-0 or 6-1.

Typical losers lament. We are close but lost because of this one thing. ALL division games in ALL divisions are tough and the record at the time is not relevant. The fact that "our" division opponents play us tougher than they play everyone else applies to all teams.

 

[lambeaulambo]

The team that scares me this year is the Saints. It is not out of the realm of possibility that they coax Newton into playing. If that happens - I think they may be dangerous. The road will most likely go through Tampa. Whoever takes the crown off their head is going to be in the big game.

 

[XPack]

I don't expect the Packers to win at KC with Love starting but there's a chance for it to happen.

With KCs own troubles, too early to write this off.

 

[milani]

I never liked the "add up wins and losses" method of strength of schedule but I can't recall an alternative. Who has a better chance of winning the next four games: four games against 4-4 teams or 7-1; 6-2; 1-7; 0-8? The first has a tougher SoS.

Typical losers lament. We are close but lost because of this one thing. ALL division games in ALL divisions are tough and the record at the time is not relevant. The fact that "our" division opponents play us tougher than they play everyone else applies to all teams.

Still the Vikings are better than the Giants, WFT, or the Eagles no matter what the records. And this week they HAVE their QB. We do not.

 

[ctfxcwatcher]

To be honest I am surprised to see some people on Packers Twitter say we can afford to drop a game/many games. Ummm no we cannot. Especially if we are trying to get to the Superbowl. I truly believe we need that number 1 seed to book a trip for LA come February. And even though the Packers lost to the Bucs last year at Lambeau in the nfccg, I would still much rather play the championship game at home than on the road. I truly believe our biggest rivals for the 1 seed are Dallas & the Rams. I don't fear Arizona, never did. If we end up playing Dallas at their house then fine, that's Aaron Rodgers 2nd home. Now idk about playing the Rams at their place.

 

[Zartan]

Need to hold on the #1 Seed. Good thing the Chiefs D sucks swamp water. Gives Love a fighting chance to do well tomarrow.

 

[milani]

To be honest I am surprised to see some people on Packers Twitter say we can afford to drop a game/many games. Ummm no we cannot. Especially if we are trying to get to the Superbowl. I truly believe we need that number 1 seed to book a trip for LA come February. And even though the Packers lost to the Bucs last year at Lambeau in the nfccg, I would still much rather play the championship game at home than on the road. I truly believe our biggest rivals for the 1 seed are Dallas & the Rams. I don't fear Arizona, never did. If we end up playing Dallas at their house then fine, that's Aaron Rodgers 2nd home. Now idk about playing the Rams at their place.

You never afford yourself to drop a game. Lombardi never played that way. You play to win.

 

[PackAttack12]

Need to hold on the #1 Seed. Good thing the Chiefs D sucks swamp water. Gives Love a fighting chance to do well tomarrow.

Only thing that worries me is the atmosphere in Kansas City, and potentially the problems KC could create as far as the pass rush.

Rodgers is all time great at dissecting what's going on at the line of scrimmage to either adjust routes, or to check down into the 'can' plays. Rush 5 or 6 against Rodgers, he could cook you up. Rush 5 or 6 against Love, and he might crumble at times due to limited experience.

I have a ton of faith in LaFleur to come up with a great gameplan. I just hope the Packers defense can hold Mahomes in check to give Love a fighting chance. Because expecting him to win a shootout is asking a whole heck of a lot.

 

[milani]

Only thing that worries me is the atmosphere in Kansas City, and potentially the problems KC could create as far as the pass rush.

Rodgers is all time great at dissecting what's going on at the line of scrimmage to either adjust routes, or to check down into the 'can' plays. Rush 5 or 6 against Rodgers, he could cook you up. Rush 5 or 6 against Love, and he might crumble at times due to limited experience.

I have a ton of faith in LaFleur to come up with a great gameplan. I just hope the Packers defense can hold Mahomes in check to give Love a fighting chance. Because expecting him to win a shootout is asking a whole heck of a lot.

Very well said. The Chiefs have a great offense that is WAY overdue to bring its A game. They can put up 40. And I recall Love moving the team in garbage time against the Saints then getting sacked and fumbling in the red zone. Not his fault.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

I never liked the "add up wins and losses" method of strength of schedule but I can't recall an alternative. Who has a better chance of winning the next four games: four games against 4-4 teams or 7-1; 6-2; 1-7; 0-8? The first has a tougher SoS.

As mentioned above I don't consider strength of schedule to be a perfect metric by any means but it's better than believing another poster on a forum.

The team that scares me this year is the Saints. It is not out of the realm of possibility that they coax Newton into playing. If that happens - I think they may be dangerous. The road will most likely go through Tampa. Whoever takes the crown off their head is going to be in the big game.

Newton was terrible with the Patriots last season. I don't expect the Saints to be a legitimate threat for the #1 seed with either Siemian, Hill or Newton starting.

With KCs own troubles, too early to write this off.

I haven't written off the Packers to win in KC by any means but they're definitely not favored entering the game.

 

[Schultz]

I didn't ask anybody to believe me. That is your gig. You know, being the smartest guy in the room. I simply stated my opinion which is what I thought forums like this were for. Don't get me wrong capitan I do appreciate it when you help us all out with salary cap rules and all of the other stuff you bring to the board. I just do not mind having a different opinion than you in some areas. Sometimes I even enjoy it.