The Turk makes his annual appearance -- cutdown weekend

[HardRightEdge]

Right now, Kizer's trade value is a potentially busted #30 pick in the 2015 draft, I guess we will see if that goes up or down from here.

That was the 2017 draft, but point taken.

He're what I think you want in a backup QB to a franchise guy like Rodgers or even Wilson. First, you'd like him to be cheap. Second, you want a guy who could play 0.500 ball against a 0.500 schedule for a few weeks while The Man is out, enough to keep an otherwise good team, if you have one, in the playoff hunt. In other words, Matt Flynn. Niether Kizer nor Hundley have yet to prove they pass that bar.

If Kizer blows up at some time this season or next with a 6 TD performance like Flynn with some other wins in his pocket, then he just might have that trade value. If he does at the end of his contract year in 2020, like Flynn, he'd be gone in FA. Maybe you get a 5th. rounder as compensation with Flynn if Kizer landed a comparable contract. That's assuming Kizer signs a comparable contract. Of course, Flynn's comp pick was nullified by sh*tting the bed and getting cut, but I digress.

 

[Dantés]

Right now, Kizer's trade value is a potentially busted #30 pick in the 2015 draft, I guess we will see if that goes up or down from here.

I would dare to bet that it's higher right now after his preseason than it was when the Packers' acquired him. If he were to have a great offseason/preseason next year, I would dare to bet it's higher still. If he gets a chance to play some regular season garbage time and shows well, that could help. I think a 3rd is realistic, IF he continues in that direction. If he struggles, then not so much.

 

[Dantés]

That was the 2017 draft, but point taken.

He're what I think you want in a backup QB to a franchise guy like Rodgers or even Wilson. First, you'd like him to be cheap. Second, you want a guy who could play 0.500 ball against a 0.500 schedule for a few weeks while The Man is out, enough to keep an otherwise good team, if you have one, in the playoff hunt. In other words, Matt Flynn. Niether Kizer nor Hundley have yet to prove they pass that bar.

If Kizer blows up at some time this season or next with a 6 TD performance like Flynn with some other wins in his pocket, then he just might have that trade value. If he does at the end of his contract year in 2020, like Flynn, he'd be gone in FA. Maybe you get a 5th. rounder as compensation with Flynn if Kizer landed a comparable contract. That's assuming Kizer signs a comparable contract. Of course, Flynn's comp pick was nullified by sh*tting the bed and getting cut, but I digress.

He's talking about Damarious Randall.

 

[HardRightEdge]

Not for the Packers, apparently.

Did they give up a valuable pick for Kizer? That was your proposition...good trade value. I think. You didn't say "good", but I assume so.

Randall was a guy who the veteran locker room voted to have cut after his meltdown and walk off. He was going to be gone one way or the other. Burned bridges in Green Bay. New GM. Kizer was headed to #3, behind the new new franchise of the future in waiting. New GM. A fresh start was in order for both. A match made in purgatory.

It was a trade of players with perceived value well below their draft positions.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

I would dare to bet that it's higher right now after his preseason than it was when the Packers' acquired him. If he were to have a great offseason/preseason next year, I would dare to bet it's higher still. If he gets a chance to play some regular season garbage time and shows well, that could help. I think a 3rd is realistic, IF he continues in that direction. If he struggles, then not so much.

Maybe only because he is a Packer and behind Rodgers and not a Cleveland Brown? I really didn't see Kizer doing all that much this preseason that makes me super excited that we even traded DR for him. Hope things change, but not due to AR getting hurt.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

Did they give up a valuable pick for Kizer? That was your proposition...good trade value. I think. You didn't say "good", but I assume so.

Randall was a guy who the veteran locker room voted to have cut after his meltdown and walk off. He was going to be gone one way or the other. Burned bridges in Green Bay. New GM. Kizer was headed to #3, behind the new new franchise of the future in waiting. New GM. A fresh start was in order for both. A match made in purgatory.

It was a trade of players with perceived value well below their draft positions.

thus why I set his current trade value at whatever DR's is, since it was the most recent transaction to set the bar.

I agree with some of your analysis about what kind of backup the Packers should have, but I wouldn't use "Cheap" in the same way. If it cost the Packers $2M extra to have a guy like Chad Henne, I would spend the cash on him. Now if the Packers weren't considered a favorite to contend for the SB, then I wouldn't.

 

[HardRightEdge]

I would dare to bet that it's higher right now after his preseason than it was when the Packers' acquired him. If he were to have a great offseason/preseason next year, I would dare to bet it's higher still. If he gets a chance to play some regular season garbage time and shows well, that could help. I think a 3rd is realistic, IF he continues in that direction. If he struggles, then not so much.

That does not qualify for a 3rd. rounder. He'd have to win some money games, and at least as many as he lost, while showing consistency throughout. Great preseasons and garbage time don't elevate value much. There is no such thing as a "great offseason".

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

Considering what we just got for Hundley (6th rounder), I would put Kizer's current value around that. If he gets no playing time in 2018, that could even go down, since there will be some younger guys who do get a chance to prove themselves as well as an influx of 2019 drafted QB's before the next preseason rolls around.

I will say one thing, if I was a Seahawks fan, I'm praying every time Wilson gets hit. Expecting Hundley to step right into a new offense with very little prep time, is a HUGE leap of faith.

 

[HardRightEdge]

thus why I set his current trade value at whatever DR's is, since it was the most recent transaction to set the bar.

I agree with some of your analysis about what kind of backup the Packers should have, but I wouldn't use "Cheap" in the same way. If it cost the Packers $2M extra to have a guy like Chad Henne, I would spend the cash on him. Now if the Packers weren't considered a favorite to contend for the SB, then I wouldn't.

That post was addressed to Dante. Anyway, $2.6 mil cap is cheap for a backup QB. Of course Henne has a $4.1 mil cap number next season with a dead cap number of $2.5 mil. So if you didn't like him anymore after one season, he cost you over $5 mil for that one year. Not so cheap under that view. Kizer is dirt cheap for the next 3 years.

I can't say I've seen much of Henne over the years to gauge his value. I would point out, however, that his record as a starter is 18-35. While that was with some not-so-good teams, I'm skeptical that gets you to that 0.500 record against 0.500 teams as a temporary stop-gap with this Packer roster to justify the money.

 

[HardRightEdge]

He's talking about Damarious Randall.

I see that now.

 

[Dantés]

That does not qualify for a 3rd. rounder. He'd have to win some money games, and at least as many as he lost, while showing consistency throughout. Great preseasons and garbage time don't elevate value much. There is no such thing as a "great offseason".

Oh, I see. I didn't realize that you're the one who decides these things. I guess I'll just have to keep quiet about my opinion.

 

[Dantés]

Maybe only because he is a Packer and behind Rodgers and not a Cleveland Brown? I really didn't see Kizer doing all that much this preseason that makes me super excited that we even traded DR for him. Hope things change, but not due to AR getting hurt.

You didn't? I definitely did. His completion % still needs to come up, but he made some big time throws. That 82 yarder to Kumerow was impressive. He threw from the outside hash to the opposite sideline about 22 yards in the air and put it just in the right spot so that Kumerow could catch it in stride and turn it upfield. That's an uncommon throw. His strengths and weaknesses are still really obvious when you watch him. But what I'm saying is that if he demonstrates a year from now that he's progressing, he could garner a lot of interest.

 

[Dantés]

I'm old enough to remember Pete Carroll and Dan Schneider sending a 2nd round pick to San Diego for Charlie Whitehurst based solely on preseason performances, without him ever having attempted a regular season pass. I guess they didn't called @HardRightEdge first to see if that's allowed to happen.

EDIT: it was a 3rd and a swap of 2nd’s.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

You didn't? I definitely did. His completion % still needs to come up, but he made some big time throws. That 82 yarder to Kumerow was impressive. He threw from the outside hash to the opposite sideline about 22 yards in the air and put it just in the right spot so that Kumerow could catch it in stride and turn it upfield. That's an uncommon throw. His strengths and weaknesses are still really obvious when you watch him. But what I'm saying is that if he demonstrates a year from now that he's progressing, he could garner a lot of interest.

I will give you the throw to JK as impressive, but overall, Meh. Again, the problem is while he is expected to be ready to lead the team to victory, as early as the second snap of the Bears game, he doesn't look ready and I think his path would be very similar to the one we saw Betty take. Will he be more ready in 2019? I hope so. Fingers crossed he sees a lot of mop up duty in Packer blow out wins, otherwise I am fine seeing him the rest of the year without a helmet on.

 

[Dantés]

I will give you the throw to JK as impressive, but overall, Meh. Again, the problem is while he is expected to be ready to lead the team to victory, as early as the second snap of the Bears game, he doesn't look ready and I think his path would be very similar to the one we saw Betty take. Will he be more ready in 2019? I hope so. Fingers crossed he sees a lot of mop up duty in Packer blow out wins, otherwise I am fine seeing him the rest of the year without a helmet on.

We're talking about two things here. I agree with you that I would like for the Packers to have a veteran backing up Rodgers so they don't have to rely on such unproven commodities if the situation arises. It's possible that Kizer does fine in that situation, but he's still a work in progress so it's hard to know. But the other thing I'm saying is that the talent is still tantalizing, so if he is with the team for another offseason and comes out looking great a year from now, it's entirely possible that a team with an unsettled QB situation could trade for him to add to their quarterback room and possibly become a starter. That's far from a certainty, but I firmly believe that Gute acquired him to try just that. And thus we come back full circle to Boyle-- I think they saw enough in him that they hope they can develop him into a capable backup, making it easier to flip Kizer to another team in the future.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

That post was addressed to Dante. Anyway, $2.6 mil cap is cheap for a backup QB. Of course Henne has a $4.1 mil cap number next season with a dead cap number of $2.5 mil. So if you didn't like him anymore after one season, he cost you over $5 mil for that one year. Not so cheap under that view. Kizer is dirt cheap for the next 3 years.

I can't say I've seen much of Henne over the years to gauge his value. I would point out, however, that his record as a starter is 18-35. While that was with some not-so-good teams, I'm skeptical that gets you to that 0.500 record against 0.500 teams as a temporary stop-gap with this Packer roster to justify the money.

While I am careful not to anoint anyone in preseason as "looking great", Henne carved up the Packers backups like a Thanksgiving Turkey. Kizer and Boyle served up a lot of mash potatoes. We might see different outcomes in a real game. But I still believe even a guy like Henne is valuable from the standpoint of his time in the league and experience on the field in real games. Maybe his arm isn't as good as Kizers, his legs a bit slower, but I think there is something to be said about having an experienced guy behind center running the offense. There is also the added benefit he brings with the younger players, in the film room, etc.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

We're talking about two things here. I agree with you that I would like for the Packers to have a veteran backing up Rodgers so they don't have to rely on such unproven commodities if the situation arises. It's possible that Kizer does fine in that situation, but he's still a work in progress so it's hard to know. But the other thing I'm saying is that the talent is still tantalizing, so if he is with the team for another offseason and comes out looking great a year from now, it's entirely possible that a team with an unsettled QB situation could trade for him to add to their quarterback room and possibly become a starter. That's far from a certainty, but I firmly believe that Gute acquired him to try just that. And thus we come back full circle to Boyle-- I think they saw enough in him that they hope they can develop him into a capable backup, making it easier to flip Kizer to another team in the future.

Agreed and all making my point that if you are going to keep 3 QB's, Kizer is the perfect #3. I'm disappointed that we are basically in the same position as last year. We have the great AR at QB and if he goes down, probably pack up the vans, game over.

 

[Half Empty]

Oh, I see. I didn't realize that you're the one who decides these things. I guess I'll just have to keep quiet about my opinion.

Be still, my heart.

 

[HardRightEdge]

Oh, I see. I didn't realize that you're the one who decides these things. I guess I'll just have to keep quiet about my opinion.

If that's what you want to believe, when it is clearly not the case, far be it from me to disuade you since I don't seem to convince you of anything else. Whether you keep your opinions to yourself is entirely up to you.

 

[sschind]

Maybe they can't do this, but if that was the case, wouldn't you think they would have had a conversation with Herb before Saturday going somewhat like this......

"Herb, we love ya man, but we just don't think you are quite ready, what are your thoughts of being on the PS and obviously being the first guy called up when a CB gets injured?"

If all of this stuff is happening in a vacuum or like you said, on a one way street, without any conversations or knowledge of what the player is thinking, then maybe it makes a bit more sense. I just can't see how you can put the kind of money on the table that they do in the NFL, without exhausting all the possibilities through conversations.

They don't tell their 150 million dollar QB they are cutting his favorite WR do you really think they are going to ask #53 how he feels about the practice squad.

I guess I look at how some of the other successful teams are doing it and who their backup is:

• Patriots: Bryan Hoyer, 10 years in the league. 3 year, $4,441,470 contract
• Eagles: Nick Foles 7 years 2 year, $11,000,000
• Vikings: Trevor Siemian or whoever they trade for once he and Cousins go down.
• Chiefs: Chad Henne 11 years 2 year, $6,700,000
• Falcons: Matt Schaub 15 years 2 year, $9,000,000

Are any of these guys going to lead a team to a 16-0 season? No. But what they will do is come into a game like its not their first rodeo and they will manage it like a Vet. Their teammates will probably be a lot more relaxed in the huddle and fewer mistakes will be made. Sure Kizer could suddenly breakout and become a Pro Bowler and maybe that is the hope for the Packers. However, I just don't see how you can rely on it happening and pin your teams 2018 future on it in the event that Rodgers goes down, especially after seeing Kizer play in the Preseason.

Packers are going to be paying Kizer over $1M/year. I hope it doesn't happen, but they may be getting what they paid for.

Except that other than Foles we have no idea how these backups are going to perform. I wouldn't have any more , well make that much more, confidence in any of these backups coming in and doing any better than Kizer.

Long run, being the operative words here, but what about short term? The problem with that approach is exactly what we saw last year and that is why I am a bit dumbfounded that the Packers are staying the course with the same approach. We all talked about it, but what would have happened if the Packers had a better Vet backup last year, at a cost of say $3M? Could he have won a game or two that Hundley couldn't and Rodgers comes back for the final game and the playoffs, where anything can happen? Can't stress it enough, I just don't think the #2 QB should be a relatively inexperienced and currently marginally talented player you want to be in the developmental stage of his career, especially a team like the Packers.

I don't disagree but when I saw the list of veteran FA QBs available last year I was not impressed by many of them. The only one out there now is Matt Moore but if I were going to have 3 QBs on my roster I'd rather have Rodgers Moore and Kizer then Rodgers Kizer and Boyle.

 

[Mondio]

Except that other than Foles we have no idea how these backups are going to perform. I wouldn't have any more , well make that much more, confidence in any of these backups coming in and doing any better than Kizer.

.

I actually think Philly and everyone else would be in for a rude awakening again if they expect to see the same performance from Foles this year as at the end of last. He's not that great of a QB. Perfect timing, perfect coaching. He's not that talented of a QB, can do a few things well for sure, but now again. Everyone has taken apart his smaller skill set and I think you'll find he is not nearly as effective. I'd love for him to have to play 4-5 games into the season for the Eagles.

 

[Dantés]

If that's what you want to believe, when it is clearly not the case, far be it from me to disuade you since I don't seem to convince you of anything else. Whether you keep your opinions to yourself is entirely up to you.

“Clearly not the case.” LOL. We are talking about possibilities. None of them are “the case.” If you want to present your opinion as dictating reality, you should come correct. When you’re demonstrably wrong, it’s a bad look.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

They don't tell their 150 million dollar QB they are cutting his favorite WR do you really think they are going to ask #53 how he feels about the practice squad.

Nick Perry is going to the PS? Is he eligible? At least he may stay healthy there. I see why they don't ask Rodgers about other players, but its a simple question to Herb himself. "Would you be fine with being put on the PS if you clear waivers?" Now maybe he would say "no" or change his mind, but at least its information involving the player.

Except that other than Foles we have no idea how these backups are going to perform. I wouldn't have any more , well make that much more, confidence in any of these backups coming in and doing any better than Kizer.

You may not know exactly how a vet QB will perform tomorrow, but you do have enough real game film to see what you most likely can expect. The Packers Real game film on Hundley going into 2017 was:
2 completions on 10 attempts for 17 yards, 0 TD's and 1 INT.

I would rather pin my SB hopes on an average vet QB with game experience over that.

I don't disagree but when I saw the list of veteran FA QBs available last year I was not impressed by many of them. The only one out there now is Matt Moore but if I were going to have 3 QBs on my roster I'd rather have Rodgers Moore and Kizer then Rodgers Kizer and Boyle.

We agree on this Rodgers Moore and Kizer would be my preference too.

 

[HardRightEdge]

I'm old enough to remember Pete Carroll and Dan Schneider sending a 2nd round pick to San Diego for Charlie Whitehurst based solely on preseason performances, without him ever having attempted a regular season pass. I guess they didn't called @HardRightEdge first to see if that's allowed to happen.

Whitehurst benefited from being unsullied in not having sh*t the bed in money games. In fact, he had not thrown an NFL ball in his 4 seasons. He was "clean", like a draft pick but with preseason experience. Kizer cannot make that claim. There's NFL tape that weighs against him unless he proves something to the contrary in money games.

So how did that Whitehurst thing work out? If you had said somebody among 31 teams would offer a day 2 pick for Kizer out of desperation based on preseason play, I probably might say there's no accouting for sutpidity given that tape. But on the merits? Uh, uh.

Maybe you're not old enough to remember the Hasselbeck trade. The Packers traded Hasselbeck and the #17 pick to Seattle for their #10 pick and their 3rd. rounder. The JJ value chart makes the difference between those 1st. round picks equivalent to a 2nd. rounder. Hasselbeck's value to Seattle was based on no starts in his 2 years and 19 regular season passes. "Clean". At least in that example the trade actually worked out for the acquirer. That would have been a better example for you, if more stale.

However, whether 8 years ago or 20, it doesn't seem to happen that way these days. Garoppolo, in 2 starts in money games with NE went 2-0, with a 113 rating and no picks. That's a meaningful value bump over a merely "clean" player. And JG goes for just a 2nd. rounder. Garoppolo was "clean plus".

Kizer is not "clean". Whatever potential he may have, there is the overhanging liability of that rookie tape. He needs to something to erase it to have decent trade value. He may not have that opportunity.

 

[HardRightEdge]

“Clearly not the case.” LOL. We are talking about possibilities. None of them are “the case.” If you want to present your opinion as dictating reality, you should come correct. When you’re demonstrably wrong, it’s a bad look.

"Clearly not the case" was in reference to your realization that I "decide these things". You might call it snide self-effacement. Get it now?

In general, I find your defensive attacks off-putting.