The "Do Not Draft List"

[Heyjoe4]

I think that's all based on perception no?

Watson seems ready to become a professional, and at 23, I expect him to hit the ground running if drafted by GB.

I'll gladly take 10 years of consistently great performances than 15 years of inconsistency.

Some guys careers lasted longer than they should've (Brett Farve) and others didn't last long enough (Sterling Sharpe).

Absolutely. If Watson is ready to start and make an impact Day One, being 23 doesn't matter. A lot of guys get drafted around age 20 or 21 and take 3 years to develop. So there's a premium for guys who can come in and start.

I don't know if Watson is one of those guys. But guys taken in rounds 1 or 2 should get up to speed quickly.

 

[McKnowledge]

Absolutely. If Watson is ready to start and make an impact Day One, being 23 doesn't matter. A lot of guys get drafted around age 20 or 21 and take 3 years to develop. So there's a premium for guys who can come in and start.

I don't know if Watson is one of those guys. But guys taken in rounds 1 or 2 should get up to speed quickly.

I don't know if he is either.

However, the measurables sure look good.

I think his learning curve will accelerate rapidly if drafted by Green Bay.

These rookie WRs will face some pressure and adversity throughout the season.

Either he shines or fades.

 

[Heyjoe4]

I don't know if he is either.

However, the measurables sure look good.

I think his learning curve will accelerate rapidly if drafted by Green Bay.

These rookie WRs will face some pressure and adversity throughout the season.

Either he shines or fades.

It's so hard to tell with rookies, especially at WR. Some guys get drafted late, 4th or 5th round, and shine. Most guys take a few years. Other guys don't make it at all. I'd be happy with Watson as a replacement for MVS. MVS was a bit of a one trick pony but seemed to be running better routes as he matured. In the meantime, a guy like Watson can "take the top off a defense" as MLF said and keep other guys from double teams.

Although as currently constituted, even with Sammy Watkins, I'm not sure double teams are necessary.

One last thought - I'll be interested to see how Amari Rodgers plays this year. For a 3rd round pick, he had a dismal rookie year. Of course Rodgers was still looking for Adams, so maybe this year he gets more looks. But even on kick returns, I was not impressed. For some guys the lights of the NFL are too bright, the game too fast and physical. I hope he has a better second year. That won't be hard.

 

[McKnowledge]

It's so hard to tell with rookies, especially at WR. Some guys get drafted late, 4th or 5th round, and shine. Most guys take a few years. Other guys don't make it at all. I'd be happy with Watson as a replacement for MVS. MVS was a bit of a one trick pony but seemed to be running better routes as he matured. In the meantime, a guy like Watson can "take the top off a defense" as MLF said and keep other guys from double teams.

Although as currently constituted, even with Sammy Watkins, I'm not sure double teams are necessary.

One last thought - I'll be interested to see how Amari Rodgers plays this year. For a 3rd round pick, he had a dismal rookie year. Of course Rodgers was still looking for Adams, so maybe this year he gets more looks. But even on kick returns, I was not impressed. For some guys the lights of the NFL are too bright, the game too fast and physical. I hope he has a better second year. That won't be hard.

I actually expect Watson to be significantly better than MVS...that is after hopefully drafted by Green Bay.

 

[McKnowledge]

One last thought - I'll be interested to see how Amari Rodgers plays this year. For a 3rd round pick, he had a dismal rookie year. Of course Rodgers was still looking for Adams, so maybe this year he gets more looks. But even on kick returns, I was not impressed. For some guys the lights of the NFL are too bright, the game too fast and physical. I hope he has a better second year. That won't be hard.

I think Rogers came into a perfect storm of crap when drafted.

Cobb blocking his potential targets didn't help.

You got the legend QB sparring with the organization.

Outside the guys he knows and trusts, the rookie wasn't gonna get any love from AR12.

That lack of trust from AR12 could've stifled his confidence and it just snowballed into his play.

I'm willing to dismiss the rookie season and watch with fresh eyes.

 

[Heyjoe4]

I actually expect Watson to be significantly better than MVS...that is after hopefully drafted by Green Bay.

I agree with you on this Watson should be an upgrade. And that's good. Ideally I'd like to see him challenge Lazard for the #2 or #3 WR. And the increased competition in camp this year will be good for all. If Sammy Watkins can stay healthy, he's a legitimate weapon and they have him on a "prove it" deal.

At this point, I'd be ok if they add one more veteran WR by any means. And I hope they draft two WRS in rounds 1 and 2. That WR group could morph into something special, and get Rodgers back to where he's completing passes to 8 or 9 different guys.

 

[GleefulGary]

The chances of Christian Watson being ready to be a starter year 1 is significantly low.

Brugler said that while he did pretty good at the Senior Bowl, he also required more attention from the WR coaches because of how sloppy his routes and technique were. He also has a high drop rate verse lower competition, especially compared to his talent. How will that look for him when the talent gap is reduced?

He’s a day 2 pick, imo. This first round talk is crazy. He’s on the older side, he’s raw as can be, and has some serious flaws as a WR. He has about the same drop rate against FCS schools that MVS had in 2020. That’s not good.

 

[Heyjoe4]

The chances of Christian Watson being ready to be a starter year 1 is significantly low.

Brugler said that while he did pretty good at the Senior Bowl, he also required more attention from the WR coaches because of how sloppy his routes and technique were. He also has a high drop rate verse lower competition, especially compared to his talent. How will that look for him when the talent gap is reduced?

He’s a day 2 pick, imo. This first round talk is crazy. He’s on the older side, he’s raw as can be, and has some serious flaws as a WR. He has about the same drop rate against FCS schools that MVS had in 2020. That’s not good.

Seems I read somewhere that his drop rate was in the 12% range. I'm not sure though. It took 3 years for MVS to get respectable with his catches. It's a hard thing to coach.

But yeah, Watson is not a day one guy.

 

[tynimiller]

The chances of Christian Watson being ready to be a starter year 1 is significantly low.

Brugler said that while he did pretty good at the Senior Bowl, he also required more attention from the WR coaches because of how sloppy his routes and technique were. He also has a high drop rate verse lower competition, especially compared to his talent. How will that look for him when the talent gap is reduced?

He’s a day 2 pick, imo. This first round talk is crazy. He’s on the older side, he’s raw as can be, and has some serious flaws as a WR. He has about the same drop rate against FCS schools that MVS had in 2020. That’s not good.

I honestly would say Kevin Austin’s floor entering the NFL is higher than Christian Watson

 

[Heyjoe4]

I honestly would say Kevin Austin’s floor entering the NFL is higher than Christian Watson

It might be but there's not a lot of film on the guy. He missed the 2019 season for violating team rules, whatever that is, and missed most of 2020 with a foot injury. He finished great though and lead the Irish in receiving. He'd be a gamble in rounds 2 or 3. He's more likely a 4th round pick. I see him as a low floor, high ceiling guy.

 

[gopkrs]

Seems I read somewhere that his drop rate was in the 12% range. I'm not sure though. It took 3 years for MVS to get respectable with his catches. It's a hard thing to coach.

But yeah, Watson is not a day one guy.

Yeah. That 12% drop rate is really a red flag. With the caveat that I would like to see the passes they consider drops. If they were like Jamon Moore drops; his draft status should slide...a lot.

 

[Dantés]

I think Rogers came into a perfect storm of crap when drafted.

Cobb blocking his potential targets didn't help.

You got the legend QB sparring with the organization.

Outside the guys he knows and trusts, the rookie wasn't gonna get any love from AR12.

That lack of trust from AR12 could've stifled his confidence and it just snowballed into his play.

I'm willing to dismiss the rookie season and watch with fresh eyes.

Rodgers absolutely deserves a chance to redeem himself in camp, but the reality right now is that he's the third option in the slot and he doesn't really offer anything on special teams.

Guys like that get cut. He needs to change the narrative-- either prove he can return, or show a ton of improvement as a receiver.

 

[Dantés]

Yeah. That 12% drop rate is really a red flag. With the caveat that I would like to see the passes they consider drops. If they were like Jamon Moore drops; his draft status should slide...a lot.

There's a few possibilities of what's going on with Watson.

The buzz around him could be smoke-- teams trying to pump him up while actually targeting another player or multiples.

Or it's possible that his elite acceleration (1.45 ten yard) at his size is just too much for teams to pass on, even given his liabilities.

I would guess that he interviewed really well; the Bison don't produce divas.

 

[Voyageur]

For me, when it comes to prospects, there are a few basic categories.

1) The guys I know and love and want my team to draft.

2) The ones I'm less familiar with, but like for whatever reason (maybe they just have good peripherals).

3) The players I'm indifferent towards or totally unaware of (lots of them in my case).

4) The guys I don't know well but lean against (maybe they just have bad peripherals).

5) The "Do Not Draft" guys-- players that I do not want at their projected draft cost and not just because of their position (e.g. another QB for the Packers).

So in that last category, here are my guys:

--Bernhard Raimann, OT, CMU: Where to begin. Raimann will be 25 for the majority of his rookie season. He's raw, having played only one season at tackle. His arms are beneath the 33" threshold. He's coming from a lower level of competition. So super old, super raw, and lacking length. Hard, hard pass.

--Abraham Lucas, OT, WSU: Largely considered a day 2 player, Lucas is an air raid tackle who is underdeveloped as a run blocker and will be 24 as a rookie. You'll notice a theme here: unless it's late, late, I do not want developmental prospects who are old.

--Christian Watson, WR, NDSU: If Watson is truly a fringe 1st round player, I do not want him. He's 23 and raw in his ability to play WR; if you're an old prospect, you better not be a project. He has amazing gifts, but he didn't play to his size in college. I was in on him when the cost was lower, but at this price you can have him. A guy like Jalen Tolbert is the same age and less physically gifted, but he's far more advanced in the details of the position and could be had 1-2 rounds later.

--Boye Mafe, ED, MINN & Arnold Ebiketie, ED, PSU: Both of these guys are in the same bucket for me as over-aged prospects who didn't come on until very late in their careers. They are both attractive prospects at the right price, but as fringe 1st rounders the juice isn't worth the squeeze for me. I struggle to trust players who didn't emerge in college until they were 22/23 years old.

--Devonte Wyatt, iDL, UGA & Phidarian Mathis, iDL, UA: I was never a huge fan of Mathis, but this pains me in regards to Wyatt, who I think is really intriguing overall. But both of these players are 24. I would not draft a 24 yo in the 1st round (you're talking about a guy who will be 29 by the time he's on a second contract), nor on day 2 unless they are special (and Mathis isn't close to special).

The theme here for me is obviously age. And that's two-fold. The obvious problem is that they would project to have shorter careers. But that's actually secondary in my mind. The bigger concern to me is that they had the benefit of being much older and more mature/developed than their competitors. You have to discount the tape grade of a 23 year old beating up on teenagers. And they typically have very old breakout ages (they wouldn't have waited this long to come out if they had broken out earlier), which tends to project poorly in terms of future success.

I haven't done that deep of an assessment on any of these guys, but I can say that I haven't considered any of them as 1st round talent either. Each of your points does enter the picture.

Hat's off to your research. I can see a lot of work went into it.