The Aaron Jones 2021 FA thread.

[Dantés]

Seven months ago I made a thread in which I catalogued the reasons why I thought it made sense to resign Aaron Jones.

The basic points were these:

• He's had a relatively small work load.
• He's a versatile weapon.
• The market for RB's was weak.

Since that time, some things have changed. In light of shifting circumstances, I don't think it would be wise to extend Jones. Here's why:

The Cap: Before the COVID-19 situation, the cap ceiling in 2021 was trending towards ~210M. It is now at 175M. Per spotrac, this leaves the Packers with ~5M in space in the offseason, as opposed to ~40M in space. This will mean a serious belt-tightening. While that will be true of other teams as well, many teams will have significantly more room than Green Bay.

Priorities: Related to the shrinking cap ceiling, the Packers have other players in need of extensions who ought to be high priorities, among them are David Bakhtiari and Kevin King. Bakhtiari, if he's to be resigned, will command a top end LT salary. King, being a corner, could also be expensive. I'd be fine with replacing King, but that in itself would mean spending on a different player at the position. Additionally, the team will be thinking about Adams and Alexander hitting FA after 2021.

Replaceability: If I'm being frank, one reason I've favored keeping Jones is that I just really like him as a player. A small school, 5th round pick turning into a top player at his position is really easy to root for. However, the reality is that running backs are easy to replace compared to other positions. Rookie running backs routinely make a big impact. And while he's not going to take on Jones' role exactly, the Packers have already invested in the future of the position with A.J. Dillon.

Comparable Contracts: 7 months ago, the most recent RB contract to compare Jones' potential deal to was Austin Ekeler's 4/24.5. Ekeler might have seemed like a strange comp, but his total production was actually similar to Jones'. His deal put him at just over 6M/season. Since that time, Dalvin Cook has signed a contract for 12.6/season, and Kamara has signed one for 15/season. These are the deals that Jones' agent will pursue.

Precedent: As was mentioned in the previous thread, the recent history of paying running backs has not been very promising. Lev Bell, David Johnson, Todd Gurley, Devonta Freeman... all of these guys caused their teams to regret the investment in relatively short order. It remains to be seen whether the newest crop of extensions will reverse that trend or keep it going. A guy like Ezekiel Elliott is currently on pace to just be more of the same.

Caveat: It's possible, albeit unlikely, that the shrunken cap will depress the RB market more than other positions, as RB is the most fungible of any NFL position. If Jones' market dries up and he could somehow be had for something more in like with Ekeler's deal (again-- unlikely), then you'd have to make that happen.

 

[tynimiller]

Honestly, Cook and Kamara screwed it for us. Not resigning Jones, if that is the path that plays out, is going to be one of the most suck filled walks I've experienced as a Packer fan....but one I will 100% understand the reasoning behind.

Been hinting at the impact of Adams and Alexander hitting after 2021 being a huge factor IMO.

 

[thequick12]

Running backs are easy to replace but blue chip players are not...when you get lucky enough to draft em you keep em. And when you get lucky enough to sign one away from another team it's a huge coup, reggie white/z smith, that can change the course of a franchise

Aaron Jones, christian mccaffrey, alvin kamara are not just running backs and I think it's naive to think they're just gonna draft another guy that's on that level...

Do you think the only reason Rodgers is having a resurrection, in many pundits eyes, is the renewed chip on his shoulder because of love?Yes Rodgers is extremely talented and driven to prove everyone wrong.

But the attention aaron jones gets from the entire defense not just the front 7 is clearly correlated to Rodgers play. Don't get me wrong jones benefits from the same thing in reverse as well. I'm just saying it's beyond nice, it's priceless to have a runner and a passer teams fear on each & every play

 

[I asked LT to delete my acct]

I know NOTHING about the NFL and it`s workings but why on earth would you release one of the best running backs we`ve had in years ??
Just shaking my head here, honestly.

 

[tynimiller]

Running backs are easy to replace but blue chip players are not...when you get lucky enough to draft em you keep em. And when you get lucky enough to sign one away from another team it's a huge coup, reggie white/z smith, that can change the course of a franchise

Aaron Jones, christian mccaffrey, alvin kamara are not just running backs and I think it's naive to think they're just gonna draft another guy that's on that level...

Do you think the only reason Rodgers is having a resurrection, in many pundits eyes, is the renewed chip on his shoulder because of love?Yes Rodgers is extremely talented and driven to prove everyone wrong.

But the attention aaron jones gets from the entire defense not just the front 7 is clearly correlated to Rodgers play. Don't get me wrong jones benefits from the same thing in reverse as well. I'm just saying it's beyond nice, it's priceless to have a runner and a passer teams fear on each & every play

I don't see anyone arguing against or stating Jones isn't a blue chip level player in the OP. He is incredibly special.

I know NOTHING about the NFL and it`s workings but why on earth would you release one of the best running backs we`ve had in years ??
Just shaking my head here, honestly.

Releasing would be asinine to a level we've never seen, not re-signing in the off-season - while SUCKS would occur for a variety of logical reasons (none or some of which people may agree with or disagree with).

 

[Mondio]

hard cap makes every decision tougher and more important. is Jones "worth" a 10 million dollar contract or more? probably. is a Rb like Jones necessary for an effective offense when you are already paying Aaron Rodgers? Probably not. When you start talking 12-14 per year, i think it's a no brainer you let him sign elsewhere. Not a chance i'm paying a RB with their shelf lives in this league that kind of money. QB's, DB's, OT's i'll sink money into. Rb's? i'd be ok around 7, like earlier.

 

[bigbubbatd]

The replacement question is the big one to me. Is it easier to replace a LT, cb or rb? A LT of Bahk's caliber is easily the hardest. Look around even our division to see how hard that is. CB is interesting because King doesnt grade out as an elite cb so I am not sure what he is worth. I didnt think Trae Waynes was very good but he got 3 years 42 million. Jones is a better rb than King is cb - although I think King is somewhat underrated simply because many wanted Watt and Watt has been terrific. On our roster and through the draft it seems like replacing Jones with a quality player seems easier to me. We have so little cb depth.

As to Jones' market there are lots of teams who could use an RB that could sign Jones. Teams with 30 millon or more include the Cardinals, Jets, Dolphins, Broncos, Washington Football Team, and Patriots. He will have a market for sure. If he doesnt care playing for a loser I could see the Jets offering him Cook type money

 

[swhitset]

I know NOTHING about the NFL and it`s workings but why on earth would you release one of the best running backs we`ve had in years ??
Just shaking my head here, honestly.

You might call it semantics.... but there is a huge difference. They would not be releasing him. He will be a free agent free to sign with any team he wants at whatever price is offered. The assumption is that teams with more cap space available will offer him far more than the Packers can afford.

 

[El Guapo]

I know NOTHING about the NFL and it`s workings but...

How did you get to be moderator of a forum you know nothing about?!?

I stated this in the Tonyan thread, but I think that we need to pay Jones and let Bahktiari walk. Then again, with Adams and Alexander sure to come up next season maybe both are allowed to sign elsewhere. At the least with Jones, I would make a reasonable offer and then let him test the RB market in a low-cap year. He might come back for that reasonable offer if not enough money is thrown his way.

 

[I asked LT to delete my acct]

How did you get to be moderator of a forum you know nothing about?!?

I stated this in the Tonyan thread, but I think that we need to pay Jones and let Bahktiari walk. Then again, with Adams and Alexander sure to come up next season maybe both are allowed to sign elsewhere. At the least with Jones, I would make a reasonable offer and then let him test the RB market in a low-cap year. He might come back for that reasonable offer if not enough money is thrown his way.

They were desperate.

 

[GleefulGary]

They were desperate.

Seems to be a habit of theirs.

 

[I asked LT to delete my acct]

Seems to be a habit of theirs.

5th Ammendment....

 

[tynimiller]

How did you get to be moderator of a forum you know nothing about?!?

I stated this in the Tonyan thread, but I think that we need to pay Jones and let Bahktiari walk. Then again, with Adams and Alexander sure to come up next season maybe both are allowed to sign elsewhere. At the least with Jones, I would make a reasonable offer and then let him test the RB market in a low-cap year. He might come back for that reasonable offer if not enough money is thrown his way.

Either way you slice it I keep going back to I just don't want to see us sign both...I foresee that crippling our other decisions and couple offseasons of futures possibly too much.

 

[Mondio]

5th Ammendment....

are crown's people even protected by that like colonists are?

 

[I asked LT to delete my acct]

are crown's people even protected by that like colonists are?

I`m claiming it anyway

 

[Mondio]

I`m claiming it anyway

I'll allow it

 

[GleefulGary]

I'll allow it

Are you wearing a funny white wig? If you’re not, I don’t think you can do that.

 

[Dantés]

Running backs are easy to replace but blue chip players are not...when you get lucky enough to draft em you keep em. And when you get lucky enough to sign one away from another team it's a huge coup, reggie white/z smith, that can change the course of a franchise

Aaron Jones, christian mccaffrey, alvin kamara are not just running backs and I think it's naive to think they're just gonna draft another guy that's on that level...

Do you think the only reason Rodgers is having a resurrection, in many pundits eyes, is the renewed chip on his shoulder because of love?Yes Rodgers is extremely talented and driven to prove everyone wrong.

But the attention aaron jones gets from the entire defense not just the front 7 is clearly correlated to Rodgers play. Don't get me wrong jones benefits from the same thing in reverse as well. I'm just saying it's beyond nice, it's priceless to have a runner and a passer teams fear on each & every play

I think that a lot of the recent running back contracts that have really flopped could have been justified with the exact same logic you're losing. "You can't just go replace blue chip players" could have been the argument to pay Todd Gurley or David Johnson.

And yet, those guys were paid, it hurt the team, they're now gone, and the team is actually better for it.

I completely concur on Jones being a valuable piece of the offense. Frankly, I love the guy and would like to keep him. But in this cap strapped time, I think you have to let him go.

 

[GleefulGary]

I think that a lot of the recent running back contracts that have really flopped could have been justified with the exact same logic you're losing. "You can't just go replace blue chip players" could have been the argument to pay Todd Gurley or David Johnson.

And yet, those guys were paid, it hurt the team, they're now gone, and the team is actually better for it.

I completely concur on Jones being a valuable piece of the offense. Frankly, I love the guy and would like to keep him. But in this cap strapped time, I think you have to let him go.

Zeke Elliot and Christian McCaffery are good examples of how even great backs really don’t contribute to winning as much as other positions, imo.

Use the money somewhere else.

 

[thequick12]

I think that a lot of the recent running back contracts that have really flopped could have been justified with the exact same logic you're losing. "You can't just go replace blue chip players" could have been the argument to pay Todd Gurley or David Johnson.

And yet, those guys were paid, it hurt the team, they're now gone, and the team is actually better for it.

I completely concur on Jones being a valuable piece of the offense. Frankly, I love the guy and would like to keep him. But in this cap strapped time, I think you have to let him go.

The fact that it didn't work out doesn't change the fact that it was the right move for their respective teams to resign them. Now I'm not sure what happened with johnson but clearly gurley got injured. What your doing is results based thinking and that's not the way you should think about gambling decisions. And nfl free agency is a lot like gambling to me. Do you keep making the right moves whether you get unlucky or not because you're gonna get unlucky certainly but if you continue making the right moves in the long run you'll come out ahead

If you're playing poker and you go all in preflop with pocket aces over the top of a raiser and you get called by pocket deuces and he hits the 2 and wins. That doesn't mean you made the wrong move going all in with your aces...

 

[thequick12]

I don't see anyone arguing against or stating Jones isn't a blue chip level player in the OP. He is incredibly special.

I didn't say anyone was saying he wasn't a blue chip player...I said you don't let blue chip players leave and when you do it can change everything.

Packers blue chip players
Rodgers
Bakh
Adams
Z. Smith
Alexander
Jones
Jenkins

Any additions or arguments? To me that's all they have for blue chip players, 7 which isn't bad but you wanna add to that # not deplete it

 

[Mondio]

Are you wearing a funny white wig? If you’re not, I don’t think you can do that.

that style is out of style. I judge 2020 style, from my frickin' computer in my skivvies

 

[RRyder]

The fact that it didn't work out doesn't change the fact that it was the right move for their respective teams to resign them. Now I'm not sure what happened with johnson but clearly gurley got injured. What your doing is results based thinking and that's not the way you should think about gambling decisions. And nfl free agency is a lot like gambling to me. Do you keep making the right moves whether you get unlucky or not because you're gonna get unlucky certainly but if you continue making the right moves in the long run you'll come out ahead

If you're playing poker and you go all in preflop with pocket aces over the top of a raiser and you get called by pocket deuces and he hits the 2 and wins. That doesn't mean you made the wrong move going all in with your aces...

Actually its useing history as examples.

Also you don't get to use "Well they got hurt" as an excuse considering the short shelf life and high injury risk the position presents is a chief argument AGAINST paying him big money. (not to mention Jones himself isn't a beacon of health and durability)

For years its been pretty much known that paying top shelf RBs is a bad idea that rarely works out well for the team handing out the contract. And yet fans of each team with a top shelf RB talk themselves into reasons why their guy is different. This is whats happening here

 

[El Guapo]

that style is out of style. I judge 2020 style, from my frickin' computer in my skivvies

You can still wear the white wig with your skivvies. It adds a certain panache.

 

[Mondio]

You can still wear the white wig with your skivvies. It adds a certain panache.

i like your style